Charting the course poultry production towards 2040

Transcription

1 Charting the course poultry production towards 2040 Trends, Challenges and Opportunities XIX Congreso Nacional Avicola, Sep 2018 Ferry Leenstra and Peter van Horne, Wageningen University & Research

2 Colombia and The Netherlands Population 50 M (42/km 2 ) 17 M (411/km 2 ) Cattle 22.5 M (19.6/km 2 ) 1.8 M (43.5/km 2 ) Pigs 5.9 M (5,1/km 2 ) 15 M (362/km 2 ) Poultry 149 M (130/km 2 ) 100 M (2400/km 2 ) Arable land 8 Mha 2.1Mha Colombia is about 25 times as big as The Netherlands, but far less densely populated with people and livestock The Netherlands export about 60% of dairy products, eggs, poultry meat and pork Colombia imports more poultry and eggs than it exports Both countries import lots of raw materials for animal feed 2

3 The Netherlands : fast expansion of animal production Focus on efficiency and cost reduction 1960: first animal welfare protests, 1965: first signals of manure problems >1985: manure and emission regulations; ban on expansion of livestock production; welfare regulations 2006: Party for Animals in parliament Licence to produce more and more an issue Yet With a very critical population NL is still able to compete on the world market for animal products 3

4 World market Poultry meat and eggs are standard commodities all over the world Eaten by all religions Fitting in a healthy diet Trend is increasing consumption Outlook is strong, but AI and trade restrictions are wild cards (RaboResearch, Poultry Quarterly) 4

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7 Projected increase of egg production by continent Windhorst, IEC Brugge

8 The changing contribution of the continents to poultry meat production Share of CS America from 15.0 to 20.9% Share of Asia from 29.7 to 34.2% Windhorst, IEC Brugge

9 The changing contribution of the continents to global egg production Share of CS America from 7.0 to 8.0% Share of Asia from 50.5 to 58.6% Windhorst, IEC Brugge

10 World market Domestic market Only 10-15% of total production of poultry meat and 3 % of egg production is traded internationally Domestic market is important Colombia not yet self sufficient for poultry meat and eggs Good opportunities to increase production for the domestic market 10

11 Poultry meat and eggs upto Increase in demand Production can and will increase worldwide and especially in Asia and CS America But Do we have the feed resources?? Cereals and oil seed meals as main ingredients for chicken feed

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13 Alternative protein resources? Meat and bone meal? DDGS? (ethanol production) Insects?...? Food for thougt! 13

14 Colombian market for poultry meat and eggs Consumption is significant (>30 kg and 260 eggs/cap), but can increase further Increase in domestic consumption because of population growth and increased consumption per capita Good prospects for a growing domestic market Close to self sufficiency More and more trade agreements in place Space for expansion Similar for eggs 14

15 Colombia greatly dependent on imports for feed 15 Import Domestic Corn Rice Wheat 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% corn rice wheat domestic import

16 Costs of primary production and slaughter 16 EU USA THA BRA ARG RUS UKR Farm level costs Slaughter costs Van Horne, 2017 Primary production dominated by feed costs

17 Costs of primary production and processing 17 Egg powder Processing costs Farm level costs EU USA UKR ARG IND Van Horne, 2017 Primary production dominated by feed costs Feed price Colombia comparable to EU? NL-broiler feed 37$ NL-layer feed 29$

18 Market and competition 18 Important competitors for production of poultry meat and eggs are USA and Brasil and neighbouring countries Peru and Mexico But costs and pricing are not the only issue Revenues on co-products Hygiene and safety (AI, antibiotics and food poisoning) Perception of eating quality Animal welfare Environmental concerns (dust, odour, CO2-footprint)

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21 21 The Netherlands (RIVM) Neighbours of poultry farms significantly higher risk for pneumonia

22 Long list of food service, restaurants, retail, food processors

23 With increasing wealth more and more aspects of poultry meat and eggs have to be considered 23 Ethical issues Environmental issues Sensory quality Safe Sufficient and affordable

24 Safety in poultry production 24 Avian Influenza Food poisoning (Salmonella, Campylobacter, Listeria, ETEC) Use of antibiotics (MRSA, ESBL) General hygiene All have a large impact on international trade and, when news/scandal (temporarily) on local consumption Biosecurity!!!

25 Environmental issues and poultry production 25 Odour Particulate matter Ammonia Design of house, management Manure disposal from waste to worth CO2-equivalents/kg product Feed! Use of fossil energy Utilisation of by-products

26 Poultry manure, a valuable resource 26 Poultry manure (dry matter > 50%) Organic matter N-content P2O5 K2O 38% g/kg 17-20g/kg 18-20g/kg Value US$/t when compared to chemical fertilizer + a large amount of organic matter for soil improvement Poultry manure utilized to replace chemical fertilizer reduces CO2-footprint significantly

27 Poultry manure, a valuable resource 27 Layers Whenever possible, produce dry manure (>70% dry matter), to prevent loss of N and organic matter Avoid deep pit in favour of systems with regular removal of manure. Broilers Keep litter dry and remove manure after each flock for hygiene and to prevent loss of N and organic matter

28 Ethical issues 28 Labour circumstances Animal welfare Competition between feed and food

29 Cage free layers 29 McDonald's will transition to cage-free eggs at restaurants in the US and Canada within 10 years News Jul 18, 2018 Far Eastern companies adopt cage-free eggs One of Asia s leading healthy food chains SaladStop! has announced it is joining the global cage-free movement. Discussions on cages started already in 1960 Only since about 2000 shift to cage free housing in EU Since about 2-3 year worldwide shift to cage free eggs in food industry

30 Share of cage vs cage-free housing 30 Cage Barn Free range 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% EU australia colombia peru argentina south africa USA canada china Japan iran India Mexico Russia EU AUS COLOM PERU ARG SA USA CAN CHI JAP IRAN IND MEX RUS cage barn free range

31 Production costs per kg of eggs

32 Carbon Footprint Layers CO 2 -e per kg egg Source: ABN-Amro, Blonk 2011

33 Cage vs Cage free for laying hens 33 Improved animal welfare High demands on management Reduced feed efficiency -> Higher production costs Higher CO2 footprint Significant increase in emissions of particulate matter and ammonia

34 Cage-free requires a lot of learning 34 Adaptation of rearing, nutrition, genetics and management Details in housing design critical Air flow/ventilation Light, distribution and colour (like daylight in activity areas, more dimmed in resting areas) Location of nest boxes and feeders...

35 Fast and slow growing broilers 35 For decades only increase in growth rate Since about 10 years discussions on welfare and high growth rate Currently fast increase in market share for slow growing broilers in some countries But, world market dominated by fast growers The expanding market for slow-growing broilers Slow-growing Label Rouge broilers are entrenched in France, and the UK s welfare-approved flocks are gaining market share, but the Netherlands slower-growing chickens dominate the fresh retail market. Slow Growing Broilers in The Netherlands XII Jornada Técnica Internacional de Avicultura de Carne

36 Great opportunities for egg and poultry meat production 36 Growing population, growing consumption Good climate in many parts of the country Fenavi, May 2018

37 But, specific for Colombia 37 Highly dependent on import of feed ingredients Developments in local production of cereals and oil seeds? Alternative (protein) sources for animal feed?

38 And for global poultry industry 38 Avian Influenza Use of antibiotics Climate change (mitigation and adaptation) Ethical issues, animal welfare licence to produce Trade regulation

39 Challenges for future development Integration of all issues Don t make the mistakes Europe and the USA made/make by single issue focus 39 Hygiene/efficiency: invisible animals, no connection with consumers and citizens licence to produce critical factor Pay attention to emission of ammonia and particulate matter, manure utilisation, animal welfare, food safety, feed-food competition... Incorporate environmental and ethical issues simultaneously and balanced in profitable poultry production Use experiences of others (The Netherlands)

40 Thank you for your attention Comments? Questions? 40

41 Environmental footprint 41 GHG emission per kg of edible protein

42 N flocks Production/hen housed (%) Organic Free range Barn Cage Organic Free range Barn Cage Kg feed/kg eggs Mortality (%) Organic Free range Barn Cage 0 Organic Free renage Barn Cage Data from farms in The Netherlands

43 Number of layer farms and farm size 43

44 Income/costs layer farms 44

45 Number of broiler farms and farm size 45

46 Income/costs broiler farms 46