Climate Change & Agriculture in Uzbekistan: National Dissemination and Consensus Building Conference. Background, Summary Findings, and Objectives

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1 Climate Change & Agriculture in Uzbekistan: National Dissemination and Consensus Building Conference Background, Summary Findings, and Objectives Dr. William R. Sutton Senior Agricultural and Resource Economist The World Bank Tashkent, Uzbekistan March 10, 2011

2 Overview of Program Objective: to enhance the ability of Europe and Central Asia countries to integrate climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs and investments Key output: menu of adaptation measures for the agriculture sector including crops, water resources, and livestock. Timeframe: 3-year program ( ) Resources: grants from World Bank, BNPP and TFESSD Partners: Ministries of Agriculture and Environment; Hydrometeorological Services; local and international agricultural research institutions; farmers associations; agribusiness; development partners Beneficiary Countries: Albania, Macedonia, Moldova Uzbekistan

3 Main Topics 1. Overview of Regional Program on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems 2. Summary of projected impacts of climate change on Uzbekistan 3. Summary of the Menu of Adaptation Options 4. Conference overview and objectives

4 Special Features of Program Strong country participation and capacity building Cross-sectoral Combines quantitative (economic) and qualitative (stakeholders, experts) analysis Rigorous modeling, including water Multiple agricultural sub-sectors Recommendations for both national and agro-ecological zone (AEZ) levels Focuses on identifying Win-Win measures

5 Moldova Should Start Developing and Implementing Program Workflow: Where We Are Now Adaptation Responses Now Desktop literature review Develop Draft Country Note Engage key stakeholders for feedback on the Draft Note Finalize Country Note Undertake model suitability assessment based on available data sources Agree on information gaps and needs for additional analysis + identify project partners Consultation and Awareness Raising Workshop High data availability DSSAT/APSIM model with CGE Low data availability FAO-CSSWB model with CGE or Ricardian approach Develop a draft Menu of short-, medium-, and long-term adaptation options National Dissemination and Consensus Building Conference Impact Assessment Evaluate potential adaptation strategies Finalize Country- Specific Menu of Adaptation Options Stakeholder consultations Menus of Adaptation Options for four ECA countries Regional Knowledge Exchange

6 Moldova Should Start Developing and Implementing Program Workflow: Where We Are Now Adaptation Responses Now Desktop literature review Develop Draft Country Note Engage key stakeholders for feedback on the Draft Note Finalize Country Note Undertake model suitability assessment based on available data sources Agree on information gaps and needs for additional analysis + identify project partners Consultation and Awareness Raising Workshop High data availability DSSAT/APSIM model with CGE Low data availability FAO-CSSWB model with CGE or Ricardian approach Develop a draft Menu of short-, medium-, and long-term adaptation options National Dissemination and Consensus Building Conference Impact Assessment Evaluate potential adaptation strategies Finalize Country- Specific Menu of Adaptation Options Stakeholder consultations Menus of Adaptation Options for four ECA countries Regional Knowledge Exchange

7 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Uzbekistan s Agriculture

8 ECA s Climate is Already Changing Temperatures Are Expected to Increase, Precipitation Will Be More Uncertain

9 Extreme Events Will Also Become More Frequent

10 Climate change has significant ECA s Climate is Already Changing implications for crop production Desert & Steppe Desert & Steppe Highlands Piedmont zone Piedmont zone Crop East West South East SW Alfalfa 0% 0% 0% 9% 0% Apples -6% -5% -6% -6% -6% Cotton -3% -3% -3% -3% Grassland 0% -6% -1% 8% -3% Potatoes -3% -3% -4% -3% -4% Tomatoes -4% -3% -2% -6% Wheat -8% -4% -10% -1% -9% * Figures are decadal average changes in yields under high impact scenario

11 Adaptation Options to Increase the Resilience of Uzbekistan s Agriculture

12 National level adaptation options ECA s Climate is Already Changing identified Improve farmer know-how and access to technology (seed varieties; more efficient use of water) Improve crop insurance affordability and streamline implementation (drought and pest damage) Encourage private sector adaptation (farmer selection of crops; seeds from international market; export options for vegetable crops)

13 Options for the Desert and Steppe Agro- Ecological Zone Improve varieties of tomatoes, potatoes, apples, wheat and cotton Improve irrigation efficiency on farm systems for tomatoes and potatoes Improve drainage for potatoes and tomatoes Optimize fertilizer application

14 Options for the Piedmont Agro-Ecological Zone Improve varieties for tomatoes, potatoes, apples, wheat and cotton Improve irrigation efficiency on farm systems for tomatoes and potatoes Improve irrigation infrastructure Research options for crop insurance Optimize fertilizer application Research and improve livestock type

15 Options for the Highland Agro-Ecological Zone Improve varieties Improve irrigation infrastructure Optimize fertilizer application Research and improve livestock type Take advantage of opportunities for increased livestock and fruit prodn.

16 Summary of Key Findings Uzbekistan already affected by climate change Climate change will accelerate in the future A business-as-usual approach will result in losses in some cases, missed opportunities in others Incorporate both biotic and abiotic stress tolerance in crops Improve soil, water and crop management Many adaptation measures are Win-Win Benefits are greater the sooner adaptation measures are implemented, so it is important to start now

17 Today s Program 1. Present methodologies and results of draft Impact Assessment and Menu of Adaptation Options 2. Break-out session to discuss options and build consensus on priorities at the agroecological zone (AEZ) level 3. Discuss national adaptation priorities 4. Decide on overall recommendations, conclusions and next steps

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