Seasonal Monitoring in DPRK 2014

Transcription

1 Seasonal Monitoring in DPRK 2014 Lower crop production expected compared to 2013 Anne Schucknecht, Francois Kayitakire, Hervé Kerdiles September 2014 Absolute NDVI anomalies between the current year (2014) and the average ( ). Source: JRC-MARS, METOP-NDVI 1

2 1 BACKGROUND This report aims to analyse the meteorological and vegetation conditions in DPRK 1 at the end of August The analysis is based on the operational model data (0.25 grid) from ECMWF 2 (OPE) for precipitation (P), average temperature (Tav) and global radiation (Rad) as well as NDVI 3 time series derived from METOP-AVHRR satellite imagery (1 km grid) for the time period Precipitation, average temperature and global radiation are the main climatic factors affecting crop yield in DPRK, whereas the NDVI informs on the actual crop development as observed by satellite-borne sensors. Agriculture contributes up to 21% (2011) of the GDP of DPRK and is a major employer for the people (CFSAM report ). The performance of the agriculture sector was erratic in the recent years due to its vulnerability to natural hazards and the lack of marketing and technology reforms. Estimated 17% of the total land area are under cultivation by cooperative farms and about 70% of this land is dedicated to cereal cultivation. Paddy rice and maize represent the dominant cereals with a cereal area share of 78% in 2013 (CFSAM report 4 ). Besides rice and maize, major food crops of DPRK include also soybean and potatoes (FAO/GIEWS crop statistics; Figure 1, right). Early crops are usually harvested in June (wheat, barley) and July (early season potatoes), while main season crops (rice, maize, soybean, sorghum, potatoes) are sown from April to mid- July and harvested from late-august to October. Acreage statistics for the last three years are reported in Table 1. Figure 1. Administrative regions and main cereal areas (MARS-JRC crop mask based on topography indicating areas with a slope < 5 ) (left), and crop calendar (source: of DPRK (right) 1 DPRK: Democratic People s Republic of Korea 2 ECMWF: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 3 NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index 4 CFSAM report 2013: FAO/WFP Crop and food security assessment mission to the Democratic People s Republic of Korea. Report from 28 November Available under: 2

3 Most of the cropland is located in the western to south-western part of the country in the so called rice bowl, comprising the provinces of North Pyongan (Pyongan-bukto), South Pyongan (Pyongan-namdo), Pyongyang, North Hwanghae (Hwanghae-bukto) and South Hwanghae (Hwanghae-namdo) (Figure 1, left). Table 1. Farm crop acreages [ha] (source: CFSAM reports for and ) Early season crops Wheat & barley 95,000 70,000 70,000 Potatoes 103, , ,000 Main season crops Paddy rice 571, , ,000 Maize 503, , ,000 Soybeans 131, , ,000 Potatoes 34,000 26,000 29,000 Other cereals 29,000 29,000 26,000 2 CURRENT SITUATION Precipitation The major crops maize and rice are sown from April to mid-june and grow until mid-august and mid-september, respectively (Figure 1, right). Therefore, the occurrence and distribution of precipitation is very important during this time. In 2014, precipitation sums for April showed a deficit nearly in the entire country, with values below 40% of the average of the last 6 years ( ) throughout the country, i.e. a relative rain deficit greater than 60% (Figure 2, top). Specifically, the situation in the rice bowl provinces was as follows: North Pyongan received 11% of the average rainfall, South Pyongan 13%, Pyongyang 20%, North Hwanghae 24%, and South Hwanghae 34%. Values for the other provinces and months are listed in the appendix (Table A 1). This dry spell has affected winter crops and the planting of early crops, namely potatoes, winter wheat and barley. The former is an important staple food in the Northern provinces. 5 CFSAM report 2012: FAO/WFP Crop and food security assessment mission to the Democratic People s Republic of Korea. Report from 12 November Available under: 6 CFSAM report 2013: FAO/WFP Crop and food security assessment mission to the Democratic People s Republic of Korea. Report from 28 November Available under: 3

4 Figure 2. Average ( ) of monthly precipitation sums (left) and relative difference between current year (2014) and average (right) (ECMWF OPE) 4

5 In May and June precipitation sums improved to average to above average values in most parts of the country. July experienced again below average conditions except for some regions in the north-west and north-east. The rice bowl region was affected by the dry spells: North Pyongan was the least affected with a deficit of 24% of the average rainfall; South Pyongan was more affected with a deficit of 56%, Pyongyang 64%, North Hwanghae 65%, and South Hwanghae 68% (Figure 2). In August the situation didn t improve and rainfall deficits were recorded throughout the country, ranging from 20% to 100 %. Specifically, the provincial rainfall sums showed the following deficits compared to the average: North Pyongan 67%, South Pyongan 88%, Pyongyang 77%, North Hwanghae 68%, and South Hwanghae 79%. The summer dry spells have negatively affected the main crops, soybean, maize and rice. The effect is probably stronger for maize and soybean because of the limited possibility for irrigation. The maize cultivation has constantly increased in the last years. If this trend continued this year, then the impact of the dry spells on the overall food balance of the country will be strong. Figure 2 (cont.). Average ( ) of monthly precipitation sums (left) and relative difference between current year (2014) and average (right) (ECMWF OPE) 5

6 Average Temperature Besides precipitation, temperature is an important meteorological parameter affecting the crop growth in DPRK, especially for winter crops. During the winter months, the rice bowl area in the western and south-western part of DPRK experienced average to above average temperatures while some areas in the north-west (mainly in North and South Hamgyong) were exposed to below-average temperatures, especially in February. Figure 3 shows that the temperature was favourable to crop development with above average temperature in spring and close to the average in summer. August was characterized by average and slightly below average temperatures in the eastern part of DPRK but the impact on crop growth is expected to be minimal. 6

7 Figure 3. Average ( ) of monthly average temperatures (left) and absolute difference between current year (2014) and average (right) (ECMWF OPE) 7

8 Figure 3 (cont.). Average ( ) of monthly average temperatures (left) and absolute difference between current year (2014) and average (right) (ECMWF OPE) Global radiation Global radiation is an important factor in DPRK because of frequent cloud coverage during the summer. Low global radiation levels particularly have an impact on maize growth. Figure 4 shows the relative difference of the present year compared to the average of the past six years. While June shows average global radiation conditions in the northwest and a negative anomaly in the rest of the country, July is characterized by above normal conditions across the country reaching predominantly positive anomalies of > 25% except in the central north (plus of 15 to 25%). August shows a global radiation gradient from average values in the southeast to positive anomalies up to 15 25% in the northwest. The conditions in terms of global radiation were favourable for crop development throughout the season. 8

9 Figure 4. Relative difference of monthly global radiation sums between current year (2014) and average ( ) (ECMWF OPE) 9

10 NDVI Satellite-derived measures of NDVI show how green the surface is (i.e., giving an indication of the amount and vitality of vegetation). Figure 5 shows the development of dekadal (10-day) vegetation conditions in 2014 from April until August compared to the average ( ). Figure 5. Absolute difference between dekadal (10-day) NDVI and the corresponding average ( ). Large decrease: < , small decrease: to -0.05, no change: to 0.05, small increase: 0.05 to 0.125, large increase: >0.125 (METOP NDVI) 10

11 Figure 5 (cont.) Difference between dekadal (10-day) NDVI and the corresponding average ( ). Large decrease: < , small decrease: to -0.05, no change: to 0.05, small increase: 0.05 to 0.125, large increase: >0.125 (METOP NDVI) From the beginning of April to the mid of May most of the country showed average to above average NDVI conditions despite the dry spell in April. From the end of May to the end of June, the areas with above-average NDVI conditions slowly changed to average conditions and the percentage of below-average areas in the northwest increased (being highest in the 2 nd dekad of June). During July the spatial pattern of NDVI stayed nearly the same with most of the area under average conditions to above average conditions and larger areas of below average NDVI values in the southwest and northeast. At the end of August large areas with a small decrease in NDVI compared to the average were present in the southwest, the central region and in the northeast. Areas with a large NDVI decrease compared to the average dominated the Yanggang and North Hamgyong (Hamgyong-bukto) provinces in the northeast. This region relies mainly on potato production as the main crop and it is chronically the most affected by food insecurity. A larger food deficit than in 2013 can be expected in those provinces. The rice bowl region shows also negative NDVI anomalies in July and August, although they are moderate, suggesting slower development of maize and rice because of the rainfall deficit in summer. 3 Temporal analysis of NDVI and rainfall estimates profiles at the province level This section presents temporal precipitation and NDVI profiles for the provinces with a large acreage of cropland (according to the JRC-MARS crop mask based on topography, Figure 1), namely North Pyongan, South Pyongan, Pyongyang, North Hwanghae and South Hwanghae. The profiles of the present year 2014 are compared to the average ( ) and the previous year Profiles for the other provinces are located in the annex (Figure A3). 11

12 Figure 6. Precipitation and NDVI profiles of selected provinces in DPRK (ECMWF OPE, METOP-NDVI) In 2014, the regional NDVI mean of North Pyongan in the northwest of DPRK showed above average values from the beginning of the growing season until the end of July, despite notable below average precipitation sums in April and the first two dekads of July. The last two dekads of August were characterised by a slightly below average regional NDVI mean. In July and August, regional precipitation means were always and except 3 rd July dekad and considerably below the average. The regional NDVI mean of South Pyongan stayed above the average from the start of the growing season until the end of May. Afterwards the regional NDVI mean was similar to the average value, before it dropped a bit below the average in the 2 nd and 3 rd dekad of August. Like in North Pyongan, the notable below average precipitation in April and beginning/mid of July seem not to have affected the evolution of the NDVI. In the south-western provinces North and South Hwanghae, and Pyongyang, the regional NDVI means were above the average from the start of the growing season until mid/end of May. 12

13 Afterwards the regional NDVI mean stayed (mainly) below the average. Precipitation sums for July and August stayed considerably below the average. 4 CONCLUSIONS The 2014 crop season was characterized by several dry spells with large rainfall deficits whereas the other climate factors (temperature and solar radiation) were normal. This is the opposite situation of the last two years where floods, excessive rains and low solar radiation had been recorded during the crop season. The total rainfall in July was as low as 30 to 40% of the normal average, and August was even dryer with rainfall below 20 % of the average in some places. The effect on vegetation and crop development is reflected in the below average NDVI values as derived from satellite imagery. The dry spells had an impact of the main crops, rice, maize and soybean. The effect is probably stronger for maize and soybean because of the limited possibility for irrigation. The maize cultivation has constantly increased in the last years. If this trend continued this year, then the impact of the dry spells on the overall food balance of the country will be strong. Moreover, the negative vegetation index anomalies in June in the southern and western regions and the rainfall deficits observed in August in the north-eastern region may have a negative impact on potato production. Potato is very important in terms of food security because it allows to bridge the food gap during the lean season in large parts of DPRK. The Public Distribution Centres usually rely on potato for the July and August rations. Compared to 2013, the 2014 crop season is expected to perform less for both the main cereals and for the secondary crops (potato and soybean). 5 TECHNICAL NOTE Differently from previous bulletins using a vegetation index from the SPOT-VEGETATION satellite, the NDVI from METOP satellite was exploited in the present report. This choice was undertaken because the SPOT-VEGETATION satellite was replaced by its successor, Proba-V, in May Even if this replacement guarantees the continuity of the service, the current NDVI product from the new sensor is still in a demonstration stage (i.e., the full quality is not ensured). Therefore, we selected an alternative product of known high quality, the METOP NDVI. This dataset is available from March 2007 and therefore covers a shorter time period compared to the SPOT-VGT/Proba-V dataset (available from April 1998). We used data from the first dekad of 2008 until the last dekad of 2013 to calculate the average. For consistency, in the analysis of meteorological data (precipitation, average temperature, radiation), we used the same time period to compute the average ( ) from ECMWF OPE data. 13

14 Annex Figure A1. Absolute difference between monthly precipitation sum of the current year and the average ( ) (ECMWF OPE) 14

15 Table A 1. Provincial rainfall for selected months (ECMWF OPE) Province Month mean P ( ) [mm] P (2014) [mm] Absolute difference 2014-mean [mm] Chagang-do Hamgyong-bukto Hamgyongnamdo Hwanghae-bukto Hwanghaenamdo Kaesong-si Kangwon-do P'yongan-bukto P'yongan-namdo P'yongyang-si Yanggang-do Chagang-do Hamgyong-bukto Hamgyongnamdo Hwanghae-bukto Hwanghaenamdo Kaesong-si Kangwon-do P'yongan-bukto P'yongan-namdo P'yongyang-si Yanggang-do Chagang-do Hamgyong-bukto Hamgyongnamdo Hwanghae-bukto Hwanghaenamdo Kaesong-si Kangwon-do P'yongan-bukto P'yongan-namdo P'yongyang-si Yanggang-do Relative Difference (2014-mean)/mean [%] 15

16 Table A 2 (cont.). Provincial rainfall for selected months (ECMWF OPE) Province Month mean P ( ) [mm] P (2014) [mm] Absolute difference 2014-mean [mm] Relative Difference (2014-mean)/mean [%] Chagang-do Hamgyong-bukto Hamgyongnamdo Hwanghae-bukto Hwanghaenamdo Kaesong-si Kangwon-do P'yongan-bukto P'yongan-namdo P'yongyang-si Yanggang-do Chagang-do Hamgyong-bukto Hamgyongnamdo Hwanghae-bukto Hwanghaenamdo Kaesong-si Kangwon-do P'yongan-bukto P'yongan-namdo P'yongyang-si Yanggang-do

17 Figure A2. Overview of monthly anomalies in relation to average ( ). 1 st column: precipitation (relative difference), 2 nd col.: average temperature (absolute diff.), 3 rd col.: solar radiation (rel. diff.), 4rd col.: NDVI (abs. diff.) (ECMWF OPE, METOP-NDVI) 17

18 Figure A2 (cont.). Overview of monthly anomalies in relation to average ( ). 1 st column: precipitation (relative difference), 2 nd col.: average temperature (absolute diff.), 3 rd col.: solar radiation (rel. diff.), 4rd col.: NDVI (abs. diff.) (ECMWF OPE, METOP-NDVI) 18

19 Figure A3. Precipitation (blue) and NDVI profiles (green) of DPRK provinces calculated as mean over the entire province area (ECMWF OPE, METOP-NDVI) 19

20 Figure A3 (cont.). Precipitation (blue) and NDVI profiles (green) of DPRK provinces calculated as mean over the entire province area (ECMWF OPE, METOP-NDVI) 20

21 z As the Commission s in-house science service, the Joint Research Centre s mission is to provide EU policies with independent, evidence-based scientific and technical support throughout the whole policy cycle. Working in close cooperation with policy Directorates-General, the JRC addresses key societal challenges while stimulating innovation through developing new standards, methods and tools, and sharing and transferring its know-how to the Member States and international community. Key policy areas include: environment and climate change; energy and transport; agriculture and food security; health and consumer protection; information society and digital agenda; safety and security including nuclear; all supported through a cross-cutting and multi-disciplinary approach. 21