LEAVING NO ONE BEHIND. Disaster Resilience for Sustainable Development

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1 LEAVING NO ONE BEHIND Disaster Resilience for Sustainable Development Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2017

2 Message #1 As Asia-Pacific grows rapidly, disaster risk is outpacing resilience.

3 Human cost significant Asia-Pacific: Human cost of natural disasters, million lives lost (56% of global) 88 per cent of people affected Flood 10% Storm 37% Others 8% Asia-Pacific 2,038,976 Earthquak e 45%

4 Low income countries have highest mortality risks 134,957 deaths 100,358 deaths 5 times 582,029 deaths High income Middle income Low income Deaths per income group for all natural hazards, more deaths than high income countries 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Deaths per disaster event, Low Income Middle Income High Income 15 times more deaths per disaster event than high income countries

5 Economic cost: A loss of $1.3 trillion due to natural disasters ( ) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Estimated damage, as % of GDP, is rising in the Asia-Pacific region Asia and the Pacific Rest of the World

6 Average Annual Loss, % of GDP Estimated Damage per year, % of GDP Vulnerable groups suffer more 1.2% 0.8% ( ) 100% 80% 0.4% 60% 40% Male 0.0% SIDS LDCs LLDCs Others 20% 0% 1991 cyclone, Bangladesh 2004 tsunami, Indonesia 2004 tsunami, India 2008 cyclone, Myanmar 2015 earthquake, Nepal 2015 floods, Myanmar Female 4% 3% 2% (by 2030) Females are disproportionately affected 1% 0% SIDS LDCs LLDCs Others SIDS and LDCs disproportionately affected

7 Message #2 Countries in East and North-East Asia face huge impacts from natural disasters.

8 East and North-East Asia suffers a lot Disaster impacts by subregion, Fatality 137, , ,207 Affected 1.67 billion 259 million 1.19 billion Economic damage $546.6 billion $73.2 billion $94 billion 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ENEA SEA SSWA NCA Pacific

9 Mainly from earthquakes, floods, storms, and droughts Fatalities 112,099 13,625 6,179 5, million 86 million Affected 834 million 350 million 341 million $14 billion Economic damage $300.7 billion $111.1 billion $103.7 billion $17 billion 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Earthquake Flood Storm Drought Others Disaster impacts in East and North-East Asia,

10 Countries lost a lot and are expected to lose a lot 3.50% Damage per year, (% of GDP) 1.60% Average annual loss by 2030 (% of GDP) 3.00% 1.40% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.50% 0.20% 0.00% China DPR Korea Japan Mongolia Rep. of Korea Others Storm Flood Earthquake 0.00% China Japan Mongolia Rep. of Korea Earthquake Wind Storm surge Tsunami Floods Volcano

11 Dzud in Mongolia Dzud-affected area, Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Mongolia: Severe Winter, 26 December In the affected regions, 6 per cent of livestock died 157,000 people affected, including: 2,500 pregnant women, 26,000 children under five and 13,000 elderly people

12 Message #3 Empirical observations and models show that hazards are intensifying.

13 Tropical cyclones will have shorter return periods with increasing storm surges and wind speeds. Tropical cyclone increasing complexity The track of tropical cyclones may shift eastward or northward in the West and North Pacific basin. Three times increase in the number of people and economic assets exposed

14 Estimated Flood Risk High in many parts of the region

15 Transboundary flooding (Scenarios 2010 and 2030) $5.2B $1.5B $1B Indus China, Pakistan and India $34.7B $1.9B $1B $0.9B $1.5B $1B $0.9B Amur China and Russian Federation A substantial increase in flood losses under both moderate and severe climate scenarios. China, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan will experience two to three times more in flood losses $16.5B $6.3B Ganges-Bramaputra-Meghna Bangladesh, Bhutan, China and India Mekong Cambodia, China, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam The transboundary flood losses will range from 1.2 to 6 times more in the major riverbasins

16 Water stress in Asia and the Pacific

17 Drought severity by 2030 Drought risk will increase substantially and there will be significant shifts in its geography. In South Asia it will be towards the west, while in South East Asia, it s towards the east. The new geography of drought will cause deep uncertainties on how to manage the risk.

18 climate change could increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index Projected 2050 Climate Vulnerability Index

19 Many cities in high disaster risk areas Rapidly Growing

20 Pacific NCA SEA SSWA ENEA Many cities in high disaster risk areas Rapidly Growing Millions Extreme High Medium Moderate Low

21 Message #4 Addressing unmet needs of multihazard early warning systems is crucial.

22 ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness ESCAP Multi-donor Trust Fund

23 Strengthened Regional Cooperation IOTWS The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System 24 Members RIMES Regional Integrated Multi- Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia 13 Member States 19 Collaborating Countries ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness in Indian Ocean and Southeast Asian Countries. PTC/TC Panel on Tropical Cyclones/ Typhoon Committee PTC 8 Members TC 14 Members ESCAP Multi-donor Trust Fund Partners National Governments - South East Asia - South Asia - Pacific (PNG, Fiji, Samoa) $15 million Preparedness Center, - UN Agencies - Asian Disaster - NGOs

24 ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness Pillars Enhanced Early Warning Regional Cooperation Multi-Hazard Early Warning for All Investing in Climate Risk Management Harnessing Innovation, Science and Technologies Focus: Focus: Focus: Focus: Deepen and extend regional cooperation mechanisms, particularly for high risk, low capacity countries Ensure that no one is left behind, particularly in communities affected by conflict and forced displacement. Invest in Climate Risk Management, by enhancing long term risk analysis and impact-based, people-centred forecasting Promote scientific, technological and communications advances relevant to disaster preparedness and early warning in high risk, low capacity countries in Asia-Pacific

25 Thank you!