Durum wheat market An EU perspective. Eric Willems Deputy Head of Unit DG Agriculture Unit G.4

Transcription

1 Durum wheat market An EU perspective Eric Willems Deputy Head of Unit DG Agriculture Unit G.4

2 Outline 1. World market 2. EU market 3. EU trade 4. EU Balance sheet 5. Voluntary Coupled Support 2

3 1. World market 3

4 Durum wheat vs all other cereals (5 years trimmed average data)

5 World durum wheat: IGC 5

6 Thousand tonnes Main durum wheat producers: IGC EU Canada North Africa Turkey United States Mexico Kazakhstan India Syria / / / / /2018 6

7 World durum wheat export prices (fob, per ton) 7

8 2. EU market 8

9 Main producing regions

10 Durum wheat vs all other cereals (5 years trimmed average data)

11 EU durum wheat 7 M t Net exports Stocks EU Consumption EU Production M t Source: EC - DG AGRI 11

12 EU 28: areas of concern

13 EU Area Forecast EU EVOL CEREALS AREA % change Million ha April fcst May fcst 2016/2017 TOTAL 57,3 56,9 56,8 56,9 0,0 Soft wheat 24,3 24,3 23,6 23,9-1,8 Durum wheat 2,5 2,7 2,6 2,6-2,5 Barley 12,2 12,3 12,5 12,4 0,5 Maize 9,2 8,6 9,3 9,0 4,8 Rye 2,0 1,9 2,1 2,1 9,7 Oats 2,5 2,6 2,6 2,7 2,4 Sources : DG AGRI - G4

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15 EU (28 MS) - Durum wheat - Area 15

16 EU (28 MS) - Durum wheat - Yields 16

17 EU Production Forecasts EU EVOL CEREALS USABLE PRODUCTION 2015/ / / /2018 %change Million tonnes April fcst May fcst 2016/2017 TOTAL 311,5 294,6 311,8 304,8 3,5 Soft wheat 151,3 134,4 141,9 141,3 5,1 Durum wheat 8,3 9,2 8,9 8,8-4,3 Barley 61,4 59,6 62,4 59,5-0,2 Maize 59,0 60,6 66,5 64,2 5,9 Rye 7,6 7,3 8,2 7,4 1,4 Oats 7,5 8,0 8,3 8,2 2,5 Sources : DG AGRI -G4

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19 EU (28 MS) - Durum wheat - Production 19

20 3. EU trade 20

21 EU MS exporting durum wheat (incl. flour) (July - March) FR 22% ES 9% Others 4% m t. +18% IT 39% ES 15% Others 8% 5Y_TRMAVG ( ) 0.98m t. IT 25% EL 4% EL 26% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) (Thousand tons) 5Y_TRMAVG ( ) IT % EL % FR % ES % Others % FR 48% 21

22 EU durum wheat (incl. flour) export destinations (July - March) Algeria 4% Saudi Arabia 4% Cote d Ivoire 5% Others 16% Morocco 7% Turkey 9% m t. +18% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) Tunisia 55% (Thousand tons) 5Y_TRMAVG ( ) Tunisia % Turkey % Morocco % Cote d Ivoire % Saudi Arabia % Algeria % Others % Algeria 20% Others 18% 5Y_TRMAVG ( ) 0.98m t. Tunisia 34% Turkey Saudi Arabia Morocco 7% 5% 8% Cote d Ivoire 8% 22

23 EU durum wheat exporting MS and destinations 23

24 EU MS importing durum wheat (incl. flour) (July - March) BE 11% Others 8% BE 13% Others 7% m t. -10% 5Y_TRMAVG ( ) 1.5m t. IT 81% IT 80% (Thousand tons) 5Y_TRMAVG ( ) IT % BE % Others % Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) 24

25 Others 3% Australia Mexico 5% 5% Russia 7% Kazakhsta n 11% United States 14% m t. -10% EU durum wheat (incl. flour) import origins (July - March) Canada 55% Australia 4% Russia 1% Mexico 8% Kazakhstan 3% United States 17% Others 7% 5Y_TRMAVG ( ) 1.5m t. Canada 60% Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT) (Thousand tons) 5Y_TRMAVG ( ) Canada % United States % Kazakhstan % Russia % Mexico % Australia % Others % 25

26 EU durum wheat importing MS and origins 26

27 EU28 Durum wheat (incl. flour) exports and imports 27

28 4. EU balance sheet 28

29 Cereals balance sheet:marketing year: 2016/2017 Million mai-17 Common tonnes wheat Barley Durum Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others EUR 28 Beginning stocks ( ) 14,7 7,6 2,8 12,3 1,0 0,2 1,6 2,3 3,0 45,5 Usable production 134,4 59,6 9,2 60,6 7,3 0,6 8,0 11,5 3,5 294,6 Import 3,3 0,4 1,8 11,7 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,2 17,6 TOTAL AVAILABILITIES 152,4 67,6 13,7 84,6 8,3 1,0 9,6 13,8 6,6 357,6 USE - Human 47,8 0,4 8,0 4,8 3,0 0,2 1,1 0,1 0,0 65,4 - Seed 5,0 2,2 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,0 0,4 0,6 0,1 9,6 - Industrial 10,5 9,0 0,1 11,5 1,6 0,0 0,1 0,4 0,1 33,4 of which alcohol 13,8 o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 4,5 0,4 6,0 0,9 0,3 12,2 - Animal feed 52,4 42,3 0,5 53,5 2,3 0,7 7,5 11,0 4,5 174,7 TOTAL USE 115,7 53,9 9,1 70,2 7,4 0,9 9,2 12,1 4,7 283,1 Losses (excl on-farm) 0,9 0,4 0,1 0,6 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 2,2 Solde disponible 35,7 13,3 4,6 13,8 0,9 0,1 0,3 1,7 1,9 72,3 Export 24,0 7,7 1,4 2,5 0,1 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 35,8 Ending stocks ( ) 44,9 20,5 5,0 25,9 2,6 0,2 2,7 4,7 3,0 109,6 Ending stocks ( ) 11,7 5,6 3,2 11,3 0,8 0,1 0,2 1,7 1,9 36,4

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31 EU BALANCE SHEET 2016/17 Harvest below average: o Disappointing soft wheat yields in Western Europe o Partially offset by increases in Southern and Eastern Europe o Mixed quality results for soft wheat (specific weight and grain size) o Short Maize harvest (slightly higher than 2015/2016) Decrease of total exports o Steep fall in soft wheat and barley exports Second Decrease in a row of total ending stocks

32 Cereals balance sheet:marketing year: 2017/2018 Million May-17 Common tonnes wheat Barley Durum Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others EUR 28 Beginning stocks ( ) 11,7 5,6 3,2 11,3 0,8 0,1 0,2 1,7 1,9 36,4 Usable production 141,3 59,5 8,8 64,2 7,4 0,7 8,2 11,0 3,7 304,8 Import 3,3 0,4 1,7 12,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,2 17,8 TOTAL AVAILABILITIES 156,4 65,5 13,7 87,4 8,3 0,9 8,4 12,7 5,8 359,0 USE - Human 48,0 0,4 8,0 4,9 3,1 0,2 1,1 0,1 0,0 65,7 - Seed 4,8 2,2 0,5 0,5 0,4 0,0 0,4 0,5 0,1 9,5 - Industrial 10,8 9,1 0,1 11,9 1,7 0,0 0,1 0,4 0,1 34,2 of which alcohol 14,5 o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 4,7 0,4 6,5 1,0 0,3 12,9 - Animal feed 51,5 41,1 0,5 56,8 2,8 0,7 6,2 11,0 4,5 175,1 TOTAL USE 115,2 52,7 9,1 74,1 8,0 0,9 7,9 12,0 4,7 284,5 Losses (excl on-farm) 0,9 0,4 0,1 0,6 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 2,2 Solde disponible 40,3 12,4 4,5 12,8 0,2 0,0 0,4 0,6 1,0 72,3 Export 28,9 7,0 1,4 2,7 0,2 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 40,3 Ending stocks ( ) 11,4 5,4 3,1 10,2 0,1 0,0 0,2 0,6 1,0 32,0

33 EU BALANCE SHEET 2017/18 Average Production based on: o Stable area vs 2016/17 o Yields higher vs 2016/17 with however, spring barley affected in Spain (drought) Expected recovery of total exports vs 2016/17 o Namely in soft wheat Third Decrease in a row of total ending stocks

34 5. Voluntary Coupled support REMINDER 34

35 Voluntary coupled support (VCS) Support may only be granted to sectors or regions where specific types of farming or sectors that are particularly important for economic, social or environmental reasons undergo certain difficulties Limited list of sectors/productions Objective/limitation: incentive to maintain current levels of production Payment within quantitative limits, based on hectares and yields or number of animals 35

36 VCS: support for cereals, including durum wheat MS Measure Applicable quantitative limit (ha) Amount per unit (ha), in EUR Total amount of aid for 2015 Total amount of aid for 2016 Total amount of aid, in KEUR Total Total amount amount of aid of aid for for Total amount of aid for 2019 Total amount of aid for 2020 EU-28 Total : Italy Durum wheat (various regions) France Durum wheat Greece Durum Wheat Latvia Barley Slovenia Small grain cereals Finland Rye premium

37 Concluding remarks Total EU cereals ending stocks 3rd in a row 2017 World Durum Production (Canada, USA) 2017 EU Durum Production but 7%> 5y average World (Canada, USA) & EU Durum stocks significant EU (World) Durum/Soft Wheat price ratio not favourable for Durum VCS 37

38 Thank you for your attention