Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making: Pathways to Decision-making on water in agriculture

Transcription

1 Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making: Pathways to Decision-making on water in agriculture Professor Quentin Grafton The Australian National University Food Energy Environment Water (FE 2 W) Network Pathways to Policy Change on water in agriculture OECD-European Commission Workshop, 21 February 2018

2 Overview (1) ROAD Process (2) Application to Vietnam (Don Duong District) (3) Application to New Zealand (Canterbury) (4) Summary 2

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4 Field Visit Preliminary Research Participatory Workshop 1. Identify Scope & Collate Data What is the risk being assessed? Who are the decision-makers? Who are the stakeholders? Identify baselines for water systems 2. Define Scope What is the risk being assessed? Identify baselines for water systems Who are the key stakeholders? What are objectives of decision-makers? 3. Define Causal Risk Model What are the triggers of the risk? What are the consequences of the risk? 4. Develop Options What controls could be implemented to address risks? What mitigants could be applied to address consequences? Research & Reporting Participatory Workshop 7. Analysis & Development of Policy Options Stress test assumptions underlying likelihoods, uncertainties and estimates of outcomes Consult stakeholders regarding proposed investment decisions Which options are complementary Which options are incompatible 6. Selection of Priority Options Develop portfolios of options Use criteria to select portfolios of options & make investment decisions 5. Assess Risks & Options Which stakeholders benefit? Which stakeholders lose out? Are decision-makers objectives met? Account for different time-scales Estimate outcomes from consequences & risks Estimate outcomes from applying options

5 Causal Risk of Water in Agriculture C3 Driver Driver Climate oscillation enters Driver + Decreased diversity in crop extreme phase Energy demand growth in Controls - production hydropower dominated grid Trigger Aggregate crop-water requirements peak at same time during growing season Trigger Drought C1 Trigger Failure of transmission cable that imports electricity from neighbouring region C1. Replace water-intensive electricity generation plants C2. Scarcity-based agricultural water pricing C3. Improve supply chains for crops with less water-use intensity C4. Build new water storage infrastructure C2 C4 Risk event Insufficient water supply to meet total water demand during growing season Key for Likelihoods Very High High Medium Low Very Low M1 M2 C2* (-) C4* (+) Consequence Higher crop prices Consequence Reduced crop yields Consequence Degradation of wetlands Consequence Increased prices for industrial energy users Mitigants M1. Fixed price contracts M2. Deliver emergency environmental flows +

6 Application to Vietnam 6

7 What policy options can address the risk of water demand exceeding water supply in the dry season?

8 ROAD Workshop (Don Duong District)

9 Causal Risk Diagram Developed at Don Duong Workshop

10 ROAD Actions Prioritised policy options Secondary risk assessment of surface water irrigation investment at ANU (groundwater, water quality, governance risks, knowledge) Policy brief on water pricing (incl. worked example) Policy plan (incl. special farmer groups & PPPs) Risk assessment process for water management in Lâm Đồng province Input to national pilot project in ag. cooperative

11 Application to New Zealand 11

12 Risks to delivery of the Canterbury Water Management Strategy Vision: To enable present and future and future generations to gain the greatest social, economic, recreational and cultural benefits from our water resources, within an environmentally sustainable development framework 12

13 Causal Risk Diagram Developed at Canterbury Workshop 13

14 ROAD Workshop Evaluation 14

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16 Summary ROAD combines causal risk analysis with participatory approaches to decision-making ROAD is iterative process ROAD can incorporate a range of tools and knowledge types (cost-benefit analysis, risk assessment, etc.) ROAD process takes time (not suitable if an immediate decision required) 16

17 Follow-Up References FE2W Network (2017). Guide to the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-making (ROAD) Process. Available at: c7dzdod8wejrhblzmnunrr2s/view Grafton, R.Q. et al. (2016) Responding to Global Challenges in Food, Energy, Environment and Water: Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-making. Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies 3(2): Available at Wyrwoll, P. et al. (in press). Decision-making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights from a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam Earth s Future 17