Global Climate Change Activities at the International. Reiner Wassmann International Rice Research Institute Coordinator of the Rice and Climate

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1 Global Climate Change Activities at the International Rice Research Institute Reiner Wassmann International Rice Research Institute Coordinator of the Rice and Climate Change Consortium (as CIM Integrated Expert)

2 INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Los Baños, Philippines Mission: Reduce poverty and hunger; Improve the health of rice farmers and consumers; Ensure environmental sustainability; Established 1960 Capacity Building through research partnerships

3 IRRI s Previous Projects on Climate/ Climate Change In , studies on the effect of temperature on rice in the growth chamber In , studies on the effect of CO 2 enrichment on rice in open-top chambers , studies on CH 4 emissions, Temp/CO 2 + UV-B effects and modeling Since 2006, Rice and Climate Change Consortium as a platform for assessing mitigation, adaptation and regional impacts

4 US-EPA project ( ) Open-top chambers (Temp./ CO2 effects) Closed chambers (Methane emissions)

5 Interregional Program on Methane Emissions from Rice Fields (funded by UNDP/GEF, ) Irrigated Rainfed Deepwater

6 The Rice and Climate Change Consortium (RCCC) Since 2007 Improving the Improving Impact on C, Impact on rice plant rice canopy management N, and water under different pathways ecosystem resilience and pests of land use Basic reserach on impacts and options Impact on global l and regional rice production Strategies for Strategies for adaptation and agroecological mitigation intensification p Strategies for response and integration

7 Climate Change Effects Relevant for Rice Production

8 Emission scenarios emissions concentrations

9 Regional Resolution of Global Climate Models PRECIS Modeling Tool Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies

10 Climate Scenarios/ Global and Regional Best case scenario Worst case scenario Source: WWF

11 Modeled potential Rice Crop Yield DS 2000 [kg/ha] IR72 Simulated increase in night time temperature DS 2000 no change + 2 degree C + 4 degree C

12 Annual means of daily max./ min. temperature, IRRI perature (ºC) Maxi imum tem y = x (r 2 = 0.14) y = x (r 2 = 0.68) P > 0.05 P < 0.01 Minimum temp perature ( ºC) insignificant trend Year 1.19ºC increase in 27 years Year Data from IRRI Climate Unit (IRRI Climate Unit)

13 Grain yield (tons ha -1 ) Long-term field experiment at IRRI ( ) y = x x 2 (r 2 = 0.77) y = x x 2 (r 2 = 0.26) Abovegrou und biomass s (tons (g m ha -2 ) -1 ) Maximum temperature (ºC) Maximum temperature (ºC) Minimum temperature (ºC) Radiation (MJ m -2 day -1 ) 2004 dry season 2005 dry P < 0.01 season y = x (r 2 = 0.87) y = x x 2 (r 2 = 0.71) Minimum temperature (ºC) Radiation (MJ m -2 day -1 ) Peng et al. 2004

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15 Sensitivity to Heat Stress LOW HIGH MEDIUM Panicle development Leaf, tiller and root development Pollination Grain filling

16 Spikelet sterility induced by high h temperature t at flowering Temp. threshold depends d on humidity (ca ºC in humid tropics). Sterility increases by 16% with a 1ºC increase above Temp. threshold

17 Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Cyclones Typhoons Cyclones Hurricanes UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005, <

18 Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007): As of now, there is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones. Under ongoing global warming, however, it is likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation.

19 New Sub1 lines after 17 days submergence in field at IRRI IR64-Sub1 Samba-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1) Samba IR64 Samba IR42 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64 IR64-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1) Samba IR64 Samba-Sub1 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64-Sub1 IR64-Sub1 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) Samba Samba-Sub1 IR64

20 Impact of Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar (May 2008) Satellite photography of the Irrawaddy Delta Before Nargis After Nargis

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22 Sea Level Trends/ Future sea level rise (cm) different scenarios Scenarios in study on Mekong Delta year IPCC 2001 IPCC 2001 IPCC 2007

23 Mega-Deltas of Asia

24 Extreme Climate Variability in the Philippines: Twelve-month (April-March) rainfall during El Niño years Percentile*: < Severe drought impact Drought impact Moderate drought impact Near normal to above normal Way above normal condition Potential flood damage > 90 Severe flood damage *Percentile is a way of presenting variability with respect to time. Source: PAGASA (2000)

25 Adaptation to Climate Change Funded by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Genes Maize C 4 Rice (C 3 C 4 )

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27 Alternate wetting and drying (AWD)

28 16 Jan 2009 Unit plot size: 5 x 5 m28

29 Site-Specific Nutrient Management (SSNM) Applying nutrients as and when needed d Adjusting nutrient application to crop needs in given location and season Leaf Color Chart

30 Alternate-Wetting Wetting- and-drying (AWD) affects the temperature regimes of soil, water, and air affects the transport of heat and greenhouse gases to the atmosphere

31 Eddy Covariance Camera CO 2 / H 2 O analyzer Sonic anemometer Radiation sensors Data logger Solar panel Temp / humidity probes Batteries

32 Eddy Covariance Air flow can be imagined as a horizontal flow of numerous rotating eddies The Eddy Covariance System can measure the components of the eddies including the vertical wind component

33 CO 2 Flux (mg/m 2 s) Fc Non-Flooded Flooded /3 3/4 3/5 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16 3/17 3/18 Time CO 2 flux describes the exchange of CO 2 between the surface and the atmosphere downward flux atmospheric CO 2 taken up by the rice plant for photosynthesis upward flux CO 2 being released from p 2 g ecosystem respiration

34 Outlook #5) CO2/ Heat Fluxes #8) Full GHG Accounting #7) Landscape Model #6) CH4/ N2O emissions Microbial Cycles #1) #2) Carbon Nitrogen Iron #3) Soil-plant Interaction #4) Trophic Interaction

35 Inputs Modelling emissions using DNDC model (DeNitrification-DeComposition) DeComposition) SOIL Texture, ph, C and N content => for 28 crops CLIMATE Temp., rainfall MANAGEMENT N inputs, tillage, irrigation etc. from Li et al Outputs EMISSIONS (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, NO, NO 2, NH 3 ) WATER BALANCE (Evaporation, transpiration) SOIL PROFILES (C and N contents, moisture etc.) CROP PHENOLOGY (biomass etc)

36 Preventing Straw Burning Technological options for using rice straw as renewable energy: combustion, biogas technology ogy (in combination o with animal a husbandry), conversion of rice straw to ethanol, and dbio-char technology.

37 Charred rice husks can be produced easily and are used already loamy Fluvisol sandy Fluvisol CO2 CH4 CH 4 CO 2 No husk Charr. husk Plain husk No husk Charr. husk Plain husk Haefele, pers. Comm.

38 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) : Generating carbon credits Greenho ouse gas em missions Carbon credits (CERs) represent the difference between the baseline and actual emissions Project start Historical Trend Time

39 SSM Small Scale Methodology Proposal under Review Submitted on 18 Dec

40 CDM rules in Marrakech Accord (2002) For 1 st commitment period ( ): The eligibility of land use, land-use change and forestry project activities is limited to afforestation and reforestation. For future commitment periods (post 2012): Eligibility shall be decided as part of the negotiations on the 2 nd commitment period.

41 Different types of funding Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) An international Fund for mitigation projects Voluntary commitments

42 Climate Change Mitigation: Conclusion I Rice systems have to become more efficient in terms of Water use Fertilizer uptake Harvest index Challenges of Mitigation = Challenges of advanced resource management

43 Climate Change Adaptation: Conclusion II Rice systems have to become more resilient to Drought Submergence Salinity Heat waves Challenges of Adaptation = g Challenges in unfavorable environments

44 Thank you