Climate Forecast Applications for Managing Climate Risks Indramayu, West Java, Indonesia, May 2006

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1 Page 1 of 15 REPORT ON THE WORKSHOP ON Climate Forecast Applications for Managing Climate Risks Indramayu, West Java, Indonesia, May 2006 I. BACKGROUND This report summarizes presentations and outcomes from the workshop, Climate Forecast Applications for Managing Climate Risks hosted by the regency of Indramayu in West Java, Indonesia from May 15-16, The workshop was organized by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in partnership with the Indonesian Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysics (BMG), Bogor Agricultural Institute (IPB), Indramayu Agriculture Office (DEPTAN), and the district government of Indramayu (PEMDA) with funding support from the USAID s Office of Foreign Disasters Assistance (OFDA). The workshop is a part the program Climate Forecast Applications (CFA) for Disaster Mitigation in Indonesia and the Philippines. For the past two years, CFA project activities focused on identifying and addressing specific climate risks in agriculture and water resources management in demonstration sites in Indonesia (Indramayu, West Java and Kupang, NTT) and the Philippines (Dumangas, Iloilo & Angat Reservoir, Bulacan) in partnership with local and national stakeholders. 1 Now in its third year of implementation, the project is expanding the spatial and sectoral coverage of climate forecast applications. While the CFA project initially targeted agriculture and water resources management, it is now being expanding to sectors such as forest fire early warning system (Central Kalimantan), public budget management, and public health management (Dumangas). The objectives of this workshop are 1) to discuss the status of existing climate forecast generation and application in different sectors for mitigating the impacts of climate hazards in Indonesia and the Philippines; 2) to identify opportunities for integrating climate forecast applications in development planning at local levels; and 3) to develop an action plan for addressing constraints and exploiting opportunities for institutionalizing climate forecast applications in different sectors and locations. 1 Profiles of the demonstration sites and their climate-related problems are documented in Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) and International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) Report on the Workshop on Climate Risk Management in Southeast Asia. July 18-21, Pathumthani, Thailand.

2 Page 2 of 15 Indramayu is an ideal location for the workshop. The district has been very active in implementing the CFA project. Since 2003, it has served as a laboratory for testing a lot of ideas in using climate information. It is especially recognized for pioneering the Climate Field School (CFS), an innovative way of communicating seasonal rainfall forecasts to farmers through agriculture extension workers. The workshop was attended by 63 participants from national government and six regency governments in West Java, and CFA project partners from the Philippines. Overall, the workshop served as a platform for discussing the status of existing climate forecast generation and application in different sectors in the project demonstration sites. Through the workshop, mutual learning was encouraged amongst demonstration sites as stakeholders shared best practices, lessons learned, and challenges in producing and using climate forecasts. This report is structured along the following themes addressed at the workshop: Experiences of national meteorological agencies in developing downscaled climate forecast products; Experiences of demonstration sites in using and communicating forecasts; Indonesian national program for developing the capacity of agricultural extension workers to communicate climate forecasts; and Vertical and horizontal expansion of climate forecast applications in Indonesia The final part of the workshop was devoted to group discussions. Each district formed a group to formulate a work plan detailing how the district could use climate information based on the experience of CFA project demonstration sites. These work plans constitute a starting point for expanding the spatial and sectoral coverage of climate forecasts applications in Indonesia. For more details about the CFA project and other ADPC s climate risk management projects all over Asia, please contact: Mr. A.R. Subbiah Director, Climate Risk Management, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center subbiah@adpc.net Phone: +66 (0) to 10 Extension 405 Fax: +66 (0) Postal address: P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand

3 Page 3 of 15 II. CLIMATE FORECAST APPLICATIONS FOR MANAGING CLIMATE RISKS: AN OVERVIEW OF THE CFA PROJECT Despite scientific progress that makes possible fairly skillful seasonal forecasts, extreme climate events continue to cause damages to livelihood and properties, and even loss of lives. This situation can be attributed to a lot of factors, including the mismatch between conventional forecast information and user needs and to the difficulty that users encounter in understanding and interpreting forecasts. Hence, making forecasts relevant to end users, particularly to smallscale farmers, is a tremendous challenge. The CFA project s strategy in overcoming this challenge is two-fold: first, it develops locally appropriate climate information tools and end-to-end institutional systems that would facilitate the application of these tools for disaster mitigation in Indonesia and the Philippines. Second, it strengthens national capacities to scale up the application of tools and methods so that they can be applied elsewhere throughout the Asian region. The project had its beginnings in 1998, when ADPC, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and with funding support from OFDA, implemented the Extreme Climate Events (ECE) program. The ECE resulted in a greater understanding of the impacts of El Niño and La Niña on society and environment in select Southeast Asian countries, which are particularly vulnerable to these extreme climate events. But unlike its predecessor, the CFA project considers not only extreme climate events per se but climate variability in a holistic sense. Initial assessments conducted under the framework of this project revealed that climate problems manifest even in non-el Niño or non-la Niña years. The CFA project is guided by the following key principles: 1) Interventions are demand-driven and tailored to the needs of communities and institutions; 2) It is geared towards strengthening community and household preparedness strategies; 3) Interventions are coupled with the development of sustainable resources and institutional structures; and 4) Recognizes that climate information is not the only information needed and hence, a whole range of information and resources, including market and financial information, agricultural inputs, market and price supports should be taken into account The ultimate goal of the CFA project is develop the capacity of local and national actors to tailor and use probabilistic forecasts for the needs of different sectors at national, regional, and local levels. The steps taken by the project are aimed towards facilitating the interpretation, translation, communication, and application of climate information. Efforts were initially focused on the demonstration sites.

4 Building on the results of demonstration projects, activities are being undertaken to communicate these results to sectors and locations beyond the demonstration sites and to understand the capacity building needs for replicating the project on a wider scale. Page 4 of 15 III. EXPERIENCES IN PRODUCING AND USING DOWNSCALED CLIMATE FORECAST PRODUCTS IN INDRAMAYU AND DUMANGAS The major headway made by the national meteorological agencies thus far is the development of spatially downscaled seasonal climate forecasts for the demonstration sites. This section will discuss the experience of the national meteorological agencies in Philippines and Indonesia in producing downscaled forecasts for CFA demonstration sites. Philippines In the Philippines, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is the agency tasked to provide weather and climate forecasts. The development and generation of agro-meteorological products is being undertaken by the Climatology and Agro-meteorology Bureau (CAB). Table 1 lists the products issued by CAB. Table 1. AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL PRODUCTS ISSUED BY PAGASA 1) Daily farm weather forecast and advisories for agriculture This product informs farmers and other users on the kind of weather that is expected within 24 hours. 2) Tropical cyclone warning and advisories This product includes the following information: areas affected by the cyclone, speed, location, and maximum speed. Corresponding advisories for agriculture sector are also issued. This information is valid for six hours. 3) Ten-day regional agri-weather forecast and advisory This product has a 10-day lead time and informs agricultural communities about expected extreme weather events. The spatial scale of the forecast coincides with the regions in the Philippines (i.e. agglomeration of several provinces). It is intended to help farmers plan farm operations for a 10-day period. 4) Philippine agro-climatic review and outlook (ten-days) - This product contains results of assessment and validation of crop stages and farm activities. 5) Seasonal forecast and advisories for agriculture- This shows the six-month condition and corresponding agriculture advisories within the season. 6) Extreme climatic forecast and advisories for agriculture This contains El Niño and La Niña forecasts and corresponding advisories for agricultural sector. Source: Villamora, 2006 PAGASA s seasonal rainfall forecast is based on the average value of five different statistical techniques, namely analogue method, Fourier analysis, Rainman (an Australian tool based on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO phase indicators), and Principal Component Analysis using sea surface temperature as the predictor.

5 Page 5 of 15 While PAGASA s forecast products are issued to all regions in the country, it has been providing special services to the municipality of Dumangas within the context of the CFA project. The spatial resolution of the forecast provided to Dumangas has significantly improved primarily due to the availability of local data from the municipal agro-met station, which started to become operational in November The agro-met station has been established through the initiative of the Dumangas municipal government following its involvement in implementing the ECE project ( ) in partnership with ADPC. Its involvement in the ECE project made the municipality realize the value of strengthening its local observation network. Since late 2002, the agro-met station has served as a focal point for gathering and disseminating local climate data. Daily observations of climatic parameters are being undertaken by trained municipal employees. Data are transmitted to PAGASA central office in Manila for analysis and interpretation. The forecast products containing information on different parameters, including monthly rainfall, temperature, wind velocity, sunshine duration, and typhoon occurrence are then sent back to the agro-met station for dissemination. Users include farmers, media, hospitals, and water district office, not only in Dumangas, but in neighbouring municipalities as well. In January 2005, the municipal legislature passed an ordinance appropriating 200,000 Philippine pesos (about 3,800 US dollars) annually for the maintenance and operation of the agro-met station. This ensures that the station will continue to be operational on a sustainable basis. Aside from the agro-met station, the mass media also serve as one of the major channels for communicating forecasts to individuals. Local cable stations are mandated to devote a certain chunk of airtime for weather/climate forecasts. This is one of the requirements for obtaining a license to operate in the municipality. The primary uses of climate forecast in Iloilo have been in agriculture and disaster management. Rainfall forecasts are used to advise farmers on crops to plant as well as the timing of planting. There are also incipient activities that incorporate the use of climate information in municipal budget and public health management. One of its many recent successes in using climate information is the use of seasonal forecasts by the Office of the Mayor to reduce the number of deaths caused by rabid dogs, a serious problem in the municipality. When the Mayor received the forecast from PAGASA that there will be a dry and hot summer in 2005 relative to climatology (interpreted as long summer in local parlance), he immediately mobilized financial and human resources to implement a wide-scale anti-rabies vaccination for dogs. The long summer provided a perfect timing for completing the anti-rabies vaccination: first wide-scale anti-rabies vaccination cannot be done during wet days and second, it was easier to gain the support of the residents, majority of whom are farmers, because they were not tilling their lands. Had the Mayor not used the forest, he would have erred on the conservative side and ordered a small-scale vaccination program. Because of its experience in implementing the ECE project since 2001 and then the CFA project since 2003, the municipal government of Dumangas has clearly shifted its disaster management paradigm from quick response and relief to anticipation and monitoring. Recently, the

6 Page 6 of 15 municipality established a community-based early warning system for flood and drought with the assistance of PAGASA. Dumangas garnered three national awards and numerous regional and provincial awards for its exemplary performance in disaster management. The Dumangas Mayor has also been appointed as the official adviser on disaster management of the Mayors League of the Philippines. This position enables the Mayor to promote the use of climate information in disaster risk management in a national forum. As a result of his advocacy, the neighbouring municipality of Sibalum in the province of Antique has been planning to replicate the CFA project, in particular the utilization of climate forecasts to provide early warning for climate hazards. Indonesia The Meteorological and Geophysical Agency (BMG) is the institution mandated by the government to provide climate forecasts. It has been collaborating with other national organizations (Indonesian Space Research Agency, Bandung Technology Institute, Bogor Agricultural Institute, and the Ministry of Agriculture) and international organizations (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization, Japan Meteorological Agency, and National Center for Medium Weather Forecasting-India) in improving the skill of its forecasts. BMG employs statistical techniques to produce seasonal rainfall forecasts. In 2004, ARIMA and Wavelet transformation including software MR1234 were used to produce forecasts for 10 districts. In 2005, more statistical techniques, namely ANFIS, Kalman Filter, Principal Component Analysis, & non-linear techniques have been added to the approaches employed, including the setting up of 16 PC cluster (Pentium GHz) for data processing. It is necessary to employ a variety of techniques because the techniques register varying predictive skills in different districts. In conjunction with improving its forecasting techniques, BMG is also investing resources in acquiring software and hardware and in developing its human resources. In connection with the CFA project, BMG has increased the spatial resolution of rainfall forecast for Indramayu from two to six rainfall regions. Rainfall forecasts are provided one week before the start of the planting season in April and October. Figure 1 below shows a sample of the seasonal rainfall forecasts provided by BMG for six rainfall regions in Indramayu.

7 Page 7 of 15 Figure 1: Map of six rainfall regions in Indramayu Source: BMG, 2005 BMG produces forecasts for different target users. Forecasts for Indramayu are targeted primarily for decision makers in agriculture. The district agriculture agency (DEPTAN) uses the forecasts to formulate recommendations to farmers regarding planting timing and strategy (e.g. dry seeding, direct seeding). The seasonal forecasts from BMG, which are presented in terms of millimeters of rainfall expected every month, are transmitted to the district agriculture agency. The agriculture agency then sends its extension officers to disseminate the rainfall forecasts through conducting meetings with farmers groups (kelompok tani) within the framework of the Climate Field School (CFS). Patterned after the Integrated Pest Management school model, the CFS is a three-step process. First, the district level agriculture officers are trained to understand climate concepts, interpret climate forecasts, and ways of integrating them in agricultural activities. Second, the district level agriculture officers train sub-district level extension workers. Finally, the sub-district extension workers conduct dialogues with farmers for 20 meetings over two cropping seasons. These dialogues involve reinforcing the perception of farmers on climate patterns (e.g. varying dates of the onset of rainy season, increased probability of flooding in certain months) through the use of climate data. Since 2003, the main mechanism of transferring this forecast information to the farmers is the CFS. As shown in the table below, a total of 1,000 farmers have participated in the CFS as of Table 2: Number of farmers who participated in the Climate Field School ( ) Year Number of farmers groups Total number of farmers TOTAL 40 1,000

8 Page 8 of 15 Dialogues within the framework of CFS have been translated into practical climate risk management actions. The district agriculture agency reported that more and more farmers have implemented adaptation strategies in relation to planting timing and planting strategy in order to minimize the vulnerability of crops to climate risks, most notably droughts and floods. Instructed by its experience in providing downscaled forecasts to Indramayu, BMG has been providing local rainfall forecasts, starting with 10 districts in 2004 to 30 districts in In this context, providing local forecast entails increasing the spatial resolution of the forecast by dividing each district into several rainfall regions and providing forecast for each of the region. Doing this increases the chance of getting fairly skillfull forecast as rainfall pattern tend to vary even over short distances because of orography and other factors. IV. INDONESIAN NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR ENHANCING THE CAPACITY OF EXTENSION WORKERS TO COMMUNICATE CLIMATE INFORMATION Except in Indramayu and in the 30 districts (see discussion in previous section) which have been receiving forecasts directly from BMG, the regular climate information delivery channel starts with the receipt of information at the national level. The information is then transmitted to the provinces, down to the districts, and finally to the sub-districts. For agricultural purposes, the Directorate for Food Crop Protection (DITLIN) within the Ministry of Agriculture (MA) is the focal institution that receives the information from BMG and disseminates this information to local levels (provincial to sub-district). A broad consensus amongst agencies has emerged that in order to make climate information useful in disaster mitigation, it has to be translated to the language of the users. This consensus has influenced the way DITLIN operates. In agriculture, this means translating forecasts in a manner that would enable users decide on appropriate technology to use for a given season or in designing appropriate management strategy, such as when to plant, when to harvest over the crop year, and the amount of fertilizer to apply. In addition to disseminating climate forecasts to agencies at the provincial level, DITLIN also formulates recommendations corresponding to the climate outlook, consisting of guidance on crop cultivation techniques and precautionary measures against expected adverse climate impacts. At the provincial level, recommendations are tailored for specific locations and then disseminated to districts. At the district level, these recommendations are further tailored for specific locations. Finally, information is disseminated to agriculture extension workers who are working in sub-districts. Throughout this whole process, the agriculture extension officers and workers are the primary actors responsible for disseminating information and making sure that they are understood by individual farmers. In order to enhance their capacity to carry out these activities, DITLIN has been implementing the following activities: 1) Creation of the Climate Analysis and Mitigation Division within DITLIN: The primary tasks of the division is to analyze climate information and formulate recommendations

9 Page 9 of 15 to enable the Ministry of Agriculture and the local authorities undertake mitigation measures against climate shocks. This division is also the primary institution responsible for managing climate information for the agriculture sector, which will be the basis for providing technical guidance to extension workers. 2) Regular discussions on climate: Meetings amongst agriculture officers are being held periodically. One of the main items in the agenda is a discussion about climate information received from BMG and Space Agency (LAPAN). 3) Training of trainers for implementing CFS: As DITLIN has incorported the CFS as part of its national program, other provinces all over the country are doing the groundwork to start the implementation process. The provinces of North Sumatera and South Sumatera are now implementing the CFS. With support from CARE Indonesia, preparatory CFS activities have been also initiated in North Central Timor through exchange visits with Indramayu district. In order to meet the growing demand of extension workers who have the capacity to establish and run CFS, a training of trainers have been held for provincial agriculture extension officers who will in turn train district extension officers. 4) Strengthening inter-ministerial cooperation as well as local/international linkages: The Ministry of Agriculture strengthens its collaboration with agencies and ministries that deal with climate-sensitive sectors, such as BMG of the Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Public Work, Ministry of Forestry, Ministry of Science, LAPAN, and others. Local journalists, local government offices, research institutes, and universities are also being engaged. DITLIN has also continuously worked with international institutions, such as ADPC to expand the use of climate forecast information in managing climate risks. These linkages are expected to boost and facilitate the work of extension workers on the ground. 5) Training extension workers to integrate indigenous technologies in land cultivation: Indigenous technologies are being practiced in different provinces all over Indonesia, such as the use of floating seedbeds in South Kalimantan. DITLIN believes that a combination of local wisdom and modern climate science technology will give better guidance to farmers. Hence it is exerting effort to make agriculture extension workers understand and appreciate such indigenous technologies. 6) Improvement of climate database: DITLIN is working towards improving its database in collaboration with provincial and district agriculture offices and BMG. This database will be used as basis for establishing an early warning for food security as well as in doing contingency planning. This database will also be used in mapping out agricultural calendars for different locations. These agricultural calendars, will be used by the Ministry of Agriculture in giving tactical guidance to farmers with regard to anticipating climate impacts.

10 Page 10 of 15 V. HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EXPANSION OF CLIMATE FORECAST APPLICATIONS IN INDONESIA In Indramayu, the use of climate information in designing cropping strategy and planting timing is well established and institutionalized. Now plans are made by the district to expand the application of information in off-farm activities, including marketing. Mango production is one specific area where the use of climate information could be integrated. Although mango production generally increases to as much as 15 percent during El Niño years, the increase in production does not necessarily result in increased farmers welfare because prices tend to fall as a result of increased supply. Hence forecasts could be used to establish a dynamic marketing strategy, i.e. a strategy that would take into account predicted market behaviour based on climate outlook. In addition to identifying more opportunities to expand the application of climate information in the agriculture sector, the district planning agency (BAPPEDA) identified three sectors that would immensely benefit from using tailored climate information: 1) District-level development planning Climate outlook could help the district planning agency set reasonable budget priorities and estimate income flows from various sectors. The planning agency is responsible for formulating the 20-year, 5-year, and annual plans of the district. Because of the long time horizons that are required in the mentioned documents, it follows that the lead time required for the forecasts to be useful to the agency is longer compared to agriculture use. However, because there are flexibilities within the annual plan that could be exploited, seasonal forecasts could nevertheless provide the planning agency with the opportunity to plan for a bad season. 2) Fisheries Climate forecast information could be used to manage fish harvest before floods; it could also be used to anticipate the extent of salinity problem and consequently to decide how many ponds should be made available to serve as back up ponds. 3) Health Climate forecast could be used to set up an early warning system for the likelihood of the outbreak of epidemics, which are usually triggered by climate variability. This system is expected to enhance surveillance, allow the district to take precautionary actions, and mobilize response to epidemicprone areas.

11 Although the identification of sectors that show potential for the integration of climate information was focused solely on Indramayu, the ideas can be potentially applied to other districts. Page 11 of 15 Already, the expansion of climate forecast information application in other sectors in Indonesia is underway. For example, the CARE-led initiative to establish a fire early warning system in Central Kalimantan has moved further ahead. Figure 2 shows the framework of this incipient early warning system. Figure 2: Community-based fire early warning process in Central Kalimantan I N P U T Department of Forestry, plantation, environment, health, meteorology & geophysics, & Academic Governor Satkorlak PB NGOs/Privates /Media Data/Information PIL (Environment Office of East Hardware Software Brainware Equipment: Media / Electronic Telephone Facsimile Internet Prov. Office of Forestry, plantation, environment, health, meteorology & geophysics, & Academic, NGOs, Privates, Media O U T P U T Community Fire Brigade, TSA (Government Fire Brigade) Action Pl Action Source: Kieft, 2006 After the presentations and discussions, the workshop participants were grouped according to the district they represented. Drawing from the lessons learned from Indramayu and Dumangas, each group was instructed to draw out a plan for applying climate information in different sectors in their respective districts. Before identifying specific activities, the participants made a rapid identification of the climate risks that are routinely causing disasters in their districts, the sectors usually affected, and the current efforts in managing them. Building on the results of this workshop, ADPC will conduct training needs assessment at both national and local levels. The work plans formulated by the participants will be the basis for designing capacity building programs for the districts represented at the workshop. In Indramayu, assessment of training needs will be made to determine the needs of the district planning agency, agriculture cooperatives, and support institutions. At the national level, capacity building efforts will be targeted towards helping DITLIN achieve its aim to build a

12 Page 12 of 15 climate database and to forge inter-ministerial linkages by helping other ministries realize the value of using climate information.

13 Page 13 of 15 ANNEX I: LIST OF PRESENTATIONS This report is based on following presentations & group discussions: Application of climate forecast information in managing climate risks in Asia Dr. Selvaraju Ramasamy Research Scientist Asian Disaster Preparedness Center BMG program for improving the skill of climate forecast at district level for agro-meteorology services Ir. Yunus Swarinoto, MSc. Head, Climatology & Air Quality Data Management Division Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysics Indonesian national program for improving the knowledge and capacity of extension workers to use climate forecasts in managing climate risks in agriculture Ir. Ati Wasiati Director Directorate for Food Crop Protection Experience of PAGASA in providing localized forecast to Dumangas, Iloilo, Philippines Ms. Ma. Fe Villamora Farm Weather Forecaster Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Experience of Dumangas, Iloilo in using climate forecasts for managing climate risk in the agriculture sector Hon. Mayor Rolando Distura Municipality of Dumangas, Iloilo, Philippines Future development of climate forecast applications program in the agriculture sector Dr. Rizaldi Boer Head, Climatology Laboratory Bogor Agricultural University Experience of Indramayu in communicating climate forecast information to farmers in managing drought and flood Drs. Kusnomo Tamkani Assistant Secretary to the Bupati for Materials and Finance Indramayu Regency

14 Page 14 of 15 Potential application of climate forecasts in other sectors in Indramayu H. Abdul Mutholib, ME District Planning Agency (BAPPEDA) Regency of Indramayu Experience of Kupang, NTT in applying climate information in the agriculture sector Mr. Johan Kieft Assistant Country Director CARE Indonesia

15 Page 15 of 15 ANNEX II: LIST OF PARTICIPATING DISTRICTS AND AGENCIES Districts Cirebon District Garut District Indramayu District Subang District Majalengka District Sumedang District Agencies BAPPEDA (district planning agency) Dinas Kesehatan (district health office) Dinas Kehutanan (district forestry office) Dinas Pertanian (district agriculture and animal husbandry agency) Dinas Pengairan (district irrigation office) Dinas Perikanan (district fishery office)