Managing Excess Water Ice on Field. Winter Kill - Quebec - Central Canada. Forage Central Canada. Low Mountain Runoff - Prairie Foothills

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1 AAFC s National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS) will provide knowledge and information products to reduce ag sector vulnerability to adverse weather and climate. Managing Excess Water Ice on Field Winter Kill - Quebec - Central Canada Forage Central Canada Aridity Native Pasture - Prairies Low Mountain Runoff - Prairie Foothills Water Erosion Carrot Crop - Atlantic

2 NAIS will provide a service to help industry manage climate risk, by Sharing and integrating climate expertise and resources from across AAFC to implement planned response strategies. Ensuring that activities and policies developed under the APF are carried out with due consideration to weather and climate. Fostering cooperation and partnerships between AAFC and other government agencies and the private sector.

3 NAIS Deliverables Include: A national system for monitoring and reporting current moisture and other climate conditions and impacts Early warnings of seasonal climate impacts An accessible agroclimate data base Greater access to near real time data, and operational forecasts Other climate change adaptation activities such as impact scenarios to agriculture and water. Support to APF programs (data, expertise, applications)

4 NAIS supports the Agricultural Policy Framework (APF), by helping us understand the interaction between climate and agriculture, reducing environmental and economic risk for the benefit of all Canadians Enhance capacity within coping range Planned response outside coping range Probability P (x) Drought Coping range Flooding X (e.g. moisture) APF Environment Risk Renewal Food Safety International

5 NAIS may ultimately exist as a horizontally distributed activity with a central core in Regina. NAIS Team Air Quality National PAU Policy Other Teams NAIS will undertake a program of work to reduce vulnerability and risk to climate variability and change.

6 gc.ca/pfra/ drought/index_ e.htm

7 Crop Condition Assessment Program

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9 The Strategy Global drivers Research Collaboration/ Coordination Improved forecasts Decisions Benefits

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11 Conditions as of April 15, 2002 There are currently about 74,300 farms in the region that appears to be significantly affected by drought. This includes over 38,200 cattle farms, 5.7 M cattle, 22.2 M Acres of pasture and 36.2 M Acres of cropland.

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13 Desertification Indicator Desertification is defined as land degradation in arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from climatic variation and human activities. Because multiple factors must come together in time and space for desertification to occur, the development of a Desertification Indicator(s) requires an integrative process. Physical, biological, economic and social elements will be considered in the indicator development process. A multi-disciplinary Scientific Advisory Committee will guide the process and direct the work of a small internal Working Group.

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19 Continental-Scale Indicators Station Network Density in Canada Coarse Results in Unreliable Contours

20 The New Blends Produced weekly using CPC s realtime daily and weekly climate division data and NCDC s monthly archive of indices for All parameters are first rendered as percentiles w/ respect to data using a percent rank method

21 Network Hierarchy Synoptic Network 1) Standards: WMO 2) Regional, provincial, national and international applications. 3) Publicly funded infrastructure Mesonet Interconnection: Selected stations can be part of both networks 1) Standards: WMO/Other 2) Regional, provincial and local applications 3) Multi-sectoral use and funding: (Transport, agriculture, forestry, water resources. etc....) 4) Public (and private?) funded infrastructure An integrated network could be developed. Micro-net 1)Standards: User defined 2) Primary focus on dedicated regional and local applications such as crop mangement, flood foreasting. tech.. 3) Contribution to mesonet a secondary benefit 4) Private and public funded infrastructure bta Dec 7, 2000

22 Data Constraints Partnership policy QA/QC Network density and distribution Re$$ources Leadership

23 Develop and maintain a long term co-operative strategy that assures access to real time and historic data for all Canadians. MSC is implementing a Data Management Framework all T & P data will be available in real time Facilitate growth and integration of regional micro- and meso-networks Require long-term strategy between MSC and the sectors Transition strategy securing access to data is essential

24 DRAFT DROUGHT SEVERITY CLASSIFICATION Category Description Possible Impacts Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) D0 Abnormally Dry Initial stage: impacts depending on timing, dry spell to -0.7 Coming out of Drought: moderate conditions lingering. D1 Moderate Drought Drought stress evident to -1.2 D2 Severe Drought Depending on timing: severe impact on water supply, crop prospects or moderate impact on both to -1.5 D3 Extreme Drought Depending on timing: extreme impact on water supply, crop prospects or severe/moderate impact on both to -1.9 D4 Exceptional Drought Exceptional impact on water supply and crop and fire hazard or less

25 Key Draft Indicators Standardized Precipitation Precipitation % of average Satellite Vegetative Health (CCAP) Streamflow Volume Palmer drought Soil moisture

26 Indices used in the Blends and their Weights: Short-term Blend: 35% Palmer-derived Z-index; 25% 3-month precipitation; 20% 1-month precipitation; 13% CPC soil moisture model; and 7% Palmer (Modified) Drought Index Long-term Blend: 30% Palmer Hydrologic Index; 20% 12-month precip; 15% 6-month precip; 10% Palmer (Modified); 10% 24-month precip; 10% 60-month precip; and 5% CPC Soil Model

27 Other Potential Indices Precipitation Percentiles Balme-Mooley Index Precipitation Potential Evapotranspiration (CMI) Potential Actual Evapotranspiration Forest Fire Index Snow water equivalence from SSMI

28 Other Indicators Crop reports including pasture and forage growth Lake and reservoir levels - relative to mean or desirable levels. On farm surface water supply (dugouts) relative to needs. Forage production potential surveys Observation well network -water levels relative to average.

29 Hogg - Climate Moisture Index (CMI) CMI = P - PET (units in cm/year) P PET Boreal aspen (CMI= +8) Parkland aspen (CMI= -13) runoff Methods for estimating PET: 1. Jensen-Haise (mean monthly solar radiation, temperature, and elevation) 2. Simplified Penman-Monteith (maximum and minimum temperature, elevation)

30 Extension of the Alberta Drought model: Model is a multi index tool involving: SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) Precipitation statistics (average, anomaly etc) Modified (Palmer-type Drought Severity Index) Soil moisture AE PE Aridity Index BM (Bhalme Mooley Drought Index)

31 Wang - ESS activities - drought related issues Glacier Monitoring and Snow Mapping In-situ Observation: observe seasonal and net mass balance and related glacioclimatic parameters for reference in-situ network in Cordillera and Arctic Archipelago Earth Observation (EO): observe regional glacio-climatic attributes (margin change, thickness change, dynamic regime change) as permitted by current earth observing methods Snow Mapping

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33 Indicator Issues to Address Dry spell in humid regions - number of days without significant precipitation Drought Recovery Index Agree upon and continue to research and develop a set of indicators that defines drought but has the flexibility to be geographically sensitive and meaningful to the agriculture, forestry, and water use, sectors and native ecologies.

34 Concept Paper to Resolve some Major Questions - Jennifer Stroich Temporal and seasonal Winter, growing season, agricultural year, Month to multi-year (five) Geographic Semi arid to maritime, continental to arctic Land Use Logistical Research, developmental, operational

35 Stewart - THE PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AND PROCESSES INFLUENCING CANADIAN PRAIRIE DROUGHTS To better understand the physical characteristics of and processes influencing Canadian Prairie droughts through a focus on the severe drought

36 Cameron Ontario Low Water Response

37 Carr - What are Normal Values? Highest in western and northwest lowlands Low along central BC coast, over Rockies and Eastern slopes Higher over central plains Lower in eastern half of Canada

38 Carr - Do International Applications Exist? Mexico project began in 1998 Eurasia Southeast Asia

39 National Drought Strategy - Recommend a structured approach to mitigating the effects of drought Drought is a re-occurring event and there is a risk of more frequent and prolonged climatic variations and shifts in the future. Abnormal situations which go beyond reasonable expectations and outside the coping range of any sector require a preplanned but flexible strategic response. A contingency plan for all sectors should be activated when specific conditions are met.

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41 Research, technology transfer and producer adaptability are reducing the effects of recent droughts

42 ($ per Farm) Drought Year Major Drought Income Income Trendline 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 -