Climate Change Adaptation and Drought Resilience: Some New Thoughts

Transcription

1 Climate Change Adaptation and Drought Resilience: Some New Thoughts Rajib Shaw E mail: shaw@global.mbox.media.kyoto u.ac.jp Web: u.ac.jp/

2 Contents Issues and Challenges: CCA, DRR, Drought Meteorological drought in Monsoon Asia Agricultural and Hydrological Drought Strategies at different level Concluding Remark

3 Climate Change: Facts and Perception Increasing Average:2,237mm Increasing Average:2,928mm The gap between perception and reality is identified It shows local people would pay more attention to local changes. Increasing Average:4,147mm

4 Three Common Issues of DRR and CCA Disaster Risk Reduction Climate Change Adaptation Increasing focus on working in local level: from central government to local government and community Increasing focus on multi disciplinary, multistakeholder approach Evolution from theory to practice: from technology to implementation

5 Breaking Traditional Boundaries Linking Financial Instruments Inter linkage with other instruments and tools Linkages with Natural, Human, Social, Physical capital and instruments Sustainable Livelihood Framework

6 Monsoon Asian Region Rainfall distribution much more than other regions of the world [average 1000 mm] Drought is more a water resource management issue Mostly characterized by flood and typhoon Monsoon Asian countries are all characterized by high biodiversity around rice fields Impacts of droughts are more prominent on agriculture, rural livelihoods sectors Drought gets less priority in national DRR policy

7 Gaps and Challenges at National and Regional Level (1) 1. Forecasting and Early Warning Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of water resource systems Many drought index are applied for drought forecasting: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Crop Moisture Index (CMI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) The SPI and SWSI have been applied successfully in some countries but still has its challenges Last Mile Communication is often a major problem Drought often becomes a political agenda Everybody loves a Good Drought: Stories from India's Poorest Districts / P. Sainath

8 Gaps and Challenges at National and Regional Level (2) 2. Drought Policy Low priority in many countries, and not a separate drought policy No legal framework for managing and protecting public infrastructure Institutional mechanism often creates conflict (drought being the key agriculture issue, irrigation issues) Damage assessment focus on agriculture and livestock but not on health or social impacts

9 Gaps and Challenges at National and Regional Level (3) 3. Perception and Capacity Awareness of policy makers, local authorities and communities are lacking Sector based departments lacks capacity Indigenous or local knowledge is at challenge due to changing climatic condition and 2 3 years of consecutive drought

10 Contents Issues and Challenges: CCA, DRR, Drought Meteorological drought in Monsoon Asia Agricultural and Hydrological Drought Strategies at different level Concluding Remark

11 Meteorological drought in Monsoon Asia Drought occurred both in the high rainfall regions and low rainfall regions Drought in Ninh Thuan province, Vietnam with annual rainfall is 700mm, Drought in Svay Rieng, Cambodia with annual rainfall is 1560mm, and in Luang Prabang of Laos is 1300mm, 1200 mm in Rajshahi in Bangladesh) Drought occurred in a large area at the same time Drought in 1998 in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia in the same time Drought in 2004 in Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand in the same time Drought has no cycle and it could be occurred in any season, and can be prolonged or just a short period Drought occurred by the variation of rainfall Changing of rainfall pattern in Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia In NW Bangladesh rainfall recorded in 1981 was about 1,738 mm, but in 1992 it was 798 mm

12 Meteorological drought (based on SPI) SPI 1 month in Phan Rang station from years Within last 26 years 11/1979 9/1980 7/1981 5/1982 3/1983 1/ /1984 9/1985 7/1986 5/1987 3/1988 1/ /1989 9/1990 7/1991 5/1992 3/1993 1/ /1994 9/1995 7/1996 5/1997 3/1998 1/ /1999 9/2000 7/2001 5/2002 3/2003 1/ /2004 9/ years since events since /1979 Bangladesh Cambodia Vietnam

13 Gradual Climate change in Ninh Thuan province Spatial distributions of rainfall and temperature Sub climate zones change and expanding of drought area

14 Contents Issues and Challenges: CCA, DRR, Drought Meteorological drought in Monsoon Asia Agricultural and Hydrological Drought Strategies at different level Concluding Remark

15 Agricultural and Hydrological Drought These are the products of inappropriate water resource management, and lack of effective policy Balance between water demand and supply Effective early warning plays an important role for decisions on water usage and control for less rainfall years A moderate rainfall years can also turn to drought years without effective warning system Affects agriculture, animal husbandry, aquaculture and forest products

16 Agricultural and Hydrological Drought Two years of meteorological drought may cause consecutive three years of agricultural drought Areas with no irrigation system are the most affected In irrigated areas, over usage of ground water causes secondary disasters Local crop practices and agriculture patterns may also enhance agriculture drought

17 Marine water Fresh water

18 Factors affecting drought types

19 Impacts of drought in Ninh Thuan province, Vietnam Category Economic Coastal Region Sub category Hoa Thanh Nam Long Binh Cuong Agriculture Damage of Damage of crops crops Income loss Animal husbandry Water resources Unavailability of water for irrigation Income loss Reduced productivity of cattle Unavailability of feed and fodder Unavailability of water Lack of water High cost of water Lack of fodder Lack of water Lack of water High cost of water Da Ba Cai Death of maize, rice and cassava crops Drying and shedding of cashew nut fruits Income loss Lack of fodder Lack of water Diseases, under nutrition and starvation Disruption of water supplies for various activities Lack of water Mountainous Region Ma Ro Death of maize and cassava crops Drying and shedding of cashew nut fruits. Income loss Lack of fodder Lack of water Diseases, under nutrition and starvation Disruption of water supplies for various activities Lack of water

20 Impacts of drought in Ninh Thuan province, Vietnam (2) Category Social Sub category Health and nutrition Coastal Region Long Binh Hoa Thanh Nam Cuong Health related problems Health related (Diarrhea and cold) problems Food shortage Food shortage Gender Both genders spend considerable time in getting water from long distances Others School dropout Migration to other provinces and cities for work Old people are left unattended due to excessive migration of young Both genders spend considerable time in getting water from long distances Short duration migration Migration to other provinces and cities for work Da Ba Cai Health related problems (Malaria, diarrhea, heat stroke) Food shortage More stress on women in carrying water Less percapita consumption of water by females Shifting into small dwellings Mountainous Region Ma Ro Health related problems (Malaria, diarrhea, heat stroke) Food shortage More stress on women in carrying water Women suffer more nutritional problems

21 Impacts of drought in Ninh Thuan province, Vietnam (3) Coastal Region Category Hoa Thanh Nam Long Binh Cuong Environmental Loss of Saline water biodiversity intrusion Over exploitation of groundwater Loss of biodiversity Da Ba Cai Mountainous Region Ma Ro Loss of biodiversity Cutting down of forests for fetching firewood as an economic activity Loss of biodiversity

22 Contents Issues and Challenges: CCA, DRR, Drought Meteorological drought in Monsoon Asia Agricultural and Hydrological Drought Strategies at different level Concluding Remark

23 Strategy at National Level: Case of Vietnam Organize National forum on drought risk management (DRM) Establish a specialized drought task force National disaster management plan needs to incorporate drought Make proper resilience assessment for drought, and enhance damage assessment tools Monitor and assess drought mitigation and response measures Promulgate drought plans and awareness campaigns, and issue timely public information Enhance participation in actions for drought mitigation and response processes

24 Role of local governments Assist with development planning Implement drought responses Leader for drought committee at local levels Drought identification and respond at local level Mainstreaming sustainable land management into provincial frameworks

25 Development of SIP approach ( Socio-economic, Institutional and Physical) 11 primary indicators 55 secondary indicators Institutional (Policy, Management, Co-ordination) Socio-economic (Education and awareness, Health, Usage, Social capital, Economic) SIP Approach Physical (Infrastructure development, Irrigation, Land use) S I P Primary Indicator Education and awareness Health Literacy rate Knowledge about drought, Having predictability Taking preventive measure Awarded about drought Access to safe water Time period having access of safe water Extent of diseases Primary health care facility Recovery Usage Food consumption Reserved food grain Migration Changing occupation Non agricultural farming Socialcapital Social cohesion Participation Water related conflict Build consensus Acceptance of leader Economic Income source Other income generating activities Use of savings Sell off assets, land or live stocks Credit, subsidy Policy Incorporation into plan Effectiveness of the plan Support by GO and NGO Water management activities Public awareness program Management Collaboration Co-ordination School/college Highlighting dramas Community leader/imam Co-ordination Training Demonstration Credit/loan Aids Subsidy Infrastructure development Irrigation Land use Secondary Indicator Electricity supply Fuel supply Dam Water reservoir Drought warning system Irrigation system Irrigation facilities (DTW, STW, over head tank etc) Supplemental irrigation Dependency on rainfall Rain water harvest Built up area Vegetative area Water bodies Drought tolerant crop Fruit tree plantation

26 A- Overall Results of the SIP Approach B- Socio-economic Bholahat Bholahat Gamastapur Gamastapur Shibganj Nachole Shibganj Nachole Tanore Baghmara Tanore Baghmara Very High High Medium Low Nawabganj Godagari Mohanpur Durgapur Puthia Paba Charghat Very high High Medium Low Nawabganj Godagari Mohanpur Durgapur Puthia Paba Charghat Very Low Bagha Very low Bagha C- Institutional Bholahat Gamastapur D-Physical Bholahat Gamastapur Shibganj Nachole Shibganj Nachole Very High High Medium Nawabganj Tanore Baghmara Mohanpur Godagari Durgapur Puthia Paba Charghat Very High High Medium Nawabganj Tanore Baghmara Mohanpur Godagari Durgapur Puthia Paba Charghat Low Bagha Low Bagha Very Low Very Low Fig. : Resilience levels of Rajshahi and Chapai-Nawabganj districts

27 Drought Resilience Indexing Overall Socio economic Institutional Physical

28 Role of local community Drought Forecasting and Early Warning Contribute to the process of drought early warning and forecasting: Local people can observe and predict weather by their traditional knowledge and report to forecasting center Local community can play role on providing information of what they observed from the field such as the changes of plants, animal, the Moon, the Sun and the dry up progress of their fields Identify Planned Responses Identifying trigger points and associated responses. Cooperating with local governments on conflict resolution Participatorylocal risk and resource assessment and planning

29 Viable adaptation practices: Bangladesh Survival strategy 28% 27% 41% 4% Use of savings 41% 23% 32% 4% Different aids provided by institution 31% 23% 31% 15% Different types of activity proposed by Government 32% 38% 28% 2% Income Governance Awareness Livelihood Income generating activities Access to health care system Responsible person for drought approach Public awareness program Having predictability Fruit cultivation 9% 25% 39% 33% 42% 44% 42% 25% 28% 25% 44% 29% 46% 20% 21% 29% 30% 15% 16% 12% 9% 2% 1% 14% Drought tolerant crops 27% 42% 18% 13% Different type crops 28% 15% 38% 19% Preventive measures 33% 32% 28% 7% Supplemental irrigation system 27% 37% 26% 10% Water reserving system 25% 21% 37% 17% In absence of electricty, alternative precautions 23% 26% 40% 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Action 1 Action 2 Action 3 Action 4 Fig: Recommendation provided by the farmers for the community level

30 Drought Proofing Possible measure for each aspect Environment impact Individual Community Local - Water usage practices 1 - Community based plantation - Community based water management government - Reforestation - Land use management Social impact Economic impact - Local lifestyles - Local lifestyles - Heath care service - Education - Livelihood diversification 2 - Fodder bank -3 Micro credit -4 Livelihood diversification - Irrigation system - Water management - Livelihood diversification

31 Specific Measures for Drought Risk Management 1 Community Based Forest Plantation Shifting the areas those could not cultivated crops into plantation area Plant trees with harvestable their products without cutting the trees Figure A Trom garden in Ninh Phuoc district A jackfruit garden in the mountainous A Neem forest in the coastal area in Ninh Phuoc district

32 Specific Measures for Drought Risk Management 2 Establishing Fodder Banks for Animal Husbandry Rice straw for cattle and sheep at a household in Ninh Thuan province Planted grass field for animal husbandry

33 3 4 Specific Measures for Drought Risk Management Livelihood Diversification together with Micro Credit Programs Imperial edict in the rural area of An Hai commune, Ninh Phuoc province Proposed a cycling credit for livelihood diversification

34 Contents Issues and Challenges: CCA, DRR, Drought Meteorological drought in Monsoon Asia Agricultural and Hydrological Drought Strategies at different level Concluding Remark

35 Concluding Remarks Drought in the national level is often a political and priority challenge Timely and Last Mile Early Warning is essential Water resource management is the key to drought risk management in Asian Monsoon region SIP resilience mapping and indexing at local government level can be useful planning tool Capacity building and awareness raising of local policy makers, managers and communities is essential Implementation oriented measures are possible and available in different regions, which need documentation, analysis and dissemination

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