Analysis of the EU meat markets

Transcription

1 26 September 2014 Analysis of the EU meat markets EU and to Russia ( ) Recent market s The EU beef and veal market The EU has a herd of around 87.3 heads and a total yearly of about 7.7 of beef (carcass weight) with self-sufficiency rate slightly above 100%. At world level, EU is the third largest producer of beef/veal (12%) after the USA (17%) and Brazil (13%) and before China (10%). The share of EU in world beef/veal trade amounts to 2% both in exported quantities and value while it represent 5% in imported quantities and 9% in value. France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland are the main producing Member States (together 5.6 accounting for approximately 72 the beef and 75 the value of beef ). Beef represents 8 the total agricultural output value. Over the last ten years EU beef decreased by more than 1 due to the combined effect of the impact of animal diseases (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy - BSE, Food and Mouth Disease - FMD), higher feed costs and policy changes, and structural decrease of the dairy herd associated to increasing milk yields. In the period , EU exported around of beef 1 of which the largest share went to Russia (29%), 13% to Switzerland and 11% to Bosnia Herzegovina. Since 2010 volumes to Russia have been declining ( less recorded in 2013 compared to 2010) as South American beef became more attractive to the detriment of the EU; yet, before the ban, Russia has been the EU's beef main destination. In , the EU exported to Russia an average of beef (mainly fresh and frozen meat) with more than half of the quantity being supplied by Poland, Lithuania and Germany. With a very limited domestic (around ) Lithuania is an important channel for re-exporting beef of different EU origins (i.e. from Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark and Poland). Despite being major beef producers, export volumes to Russia sourced directly from France, Spain, Ireland and Italy made up for around 30 total EU to Russia. British beef has been banned on BSE grounds since It excludes live cattle for

2 Beef prices, on a declining from March 2013 until July 2014, started to recover since then with no visible effect of the ban in the markets. Prices are still high and well above the average. The EU beef price continued to increase slightly (at 360 /100 kg) in latest week for which prices are available (37) compared to the week of the ban (32). Italian price instead declined by more than 6% associated to flat domestic demand rather than to the ban. World prices are increasing since several months because of tight supply in the US, still strong demand in Asia and, now, Russia is increasing overall beef imports (replace pork by beef). and of beef BEEF - European Union () Total Total extra Total extra / Total % Total to Russia Total to Russia / Total % Total to Russia / Total extra % Total value of Total value of agricultural cattle value of in agricultural output % Total value of extra Total value of extra / Total value of % Total value of to Russia Total value of to Russia / Total value of % Total value of to Russia / Total value of extra % of - agricultural output: Eurostat, Economic Accounts for Agriculture. Current prices. Production (total), and to Russia of beef (only meat), average Total Total extra Total extra / Total % 3.0 Total to Russia 67.6 Total to Russia / Total % 0.9 Total to Russia / Total extra % 29.0 BEEF - Average Total value of Total value of extra Total value of extra / Total value of % 2.2 Total value of to Russia Total value of to Russia / Total value of % 0.6 Total value of to Russia / Total value of extra % of - agricultural output: Eurostat, Economic Accounts for Agriculture. Current prices. 26 September

3 Production (total), and to Russia of beef (only meat), by main Member State (average ) BEEF Denmark Germany Estonia N.A. Ireland Spain France Italy Latvia N.A. Lithuania Poland Finland N.A. United Kingdom N.A. BEEF Average QUANTITIES Production Exports Exports to Russia Average VALUE Production Exports Exports to Russia Denmark Germany Estonia Ireland Spain France Italy Latvia Lithuania Poland Finland N.A. United Kingdom N.A. Trend = % change between 2011 and 2013: Decrease by more than -30%; Decrease between -5% and -30%; Change between -5% and +5%; Increase between 5% and 30%; Increase by more than 30%. - of - agricultural output: Eurostat, Economic Accounts for Agriculture. Current prices. Figure 1 Young bovine price AR3 weekly EU average (/100 kg c.w.) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec avg Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development based on Member States communications. 26 September

4 Weekly prices for selected countries - beef (/100 kg c.w.) Weeks BEEF PRICES /32 38/37 28/07/14 4/08/14 11/08/14 18/08/14 25/08/14 1/09/14 8/09/14 15/09/14 % % % 0.9% Denmark % -0.7% Germany % 0.7% Estonia Ireland % 1.3% Spain % -0.2% France % 0.0% Italy % 5.1% Latvia % Lithuania % -3.9% Poland % -0.1% Finland % 3.0% United Kingdom % 0.7% Source: Member States declarations. of beef not affected by the ban for selected countries ( ) of beef not affected by the ban BEEF Exports extra- EU Exports to Russia Denmark Germany Ireland Spain France Italy Latvia Lithuania Austria Poland United Kingdom Source: Eurostat - Comext. 26 September

5 The EU pig meat market With around 148 pigs, the produces 22.6 annually with a selfsufficiency rate of about 110% and exporting about 10 its total 2. At world level, the EU is the world's second biggest producer of pig meat (or 20 global pig meat ) after China (52.7 or 47 global ). Nevertheless the EU is the main world pig meat exporter. The EU's main producer countries are Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Poland, Denmark and the Netherlands representing altogether around 77 the EU's total slaughter and 76 value of pig at producer prices. The pig sector accounts for approximately 9.5% in total agricultural output value. High feed costs due to the 2012 drought and the implementation of the new welfare rules in the sow sector mandatory as of December 2013 have put pressure on the EU pig meat which recorded drops in the past two years. The EU around 3.2 t of pig meat (fresh, frozen, salted meat, offal, fats and preparations) to the extra EU countries with main destinations as Russia (24 pig meat ) followed by China (17%), Hong-Kong (14%), Japan (8%) and South Korea (5%). On average, EU exported of pig meat products to Russia amounting to a total of 1.4 billion (or 24 total EU pig meat value); main exporters in volume are Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, the Netherlands and Poland altogether supplying the Russian market with t or 80 EU pig meat to Russia. Most exported products to Russia are the frozen meat (43%), lard (32%) and offal (15%). Since February 2014, Russia imposed a de-facto ban on EU pig meat imports after the discovery in Lithuania and Poland 3 of few cases of African swine fever (ASF) in wild boars close to the border with Belarus. In order to compensate for the reduced pig meat supplied quantities, Russia increased its imports from the EU of beef and poultry in the first part of the year. EU price kept stables in August, they declined by 1.7% in week 37 (162 /100 kg) as compared to the week of the ban (week 32) and the largest drop can be seen in Latvia (more than 6%). The EU average went further down last week (38) -2.6% and situates slightly below the average. Price changes last week ranged from -4.2% in Germany, to +1% in Denmark. Seasonal decrease of prices is absolutely normal in this period of the year. Average producers margins remains above the last five years average. 2 Trade of fats and offal is not included. 3 Recently, the ASF outbreaks have spread in Latvia and Estonia. 26 September

6 and of pig meat PIG MEAT - European Union () Total Total extra Total extra / Total % Total to Russia Total to Russia / Total % Total to Russia / Total extra % Total value of Total value of agricultural pig value of in agricultural output % Total value of extra Total value of extra / Total value of % Total value of to Russia Total value of to Russia / Total value of % Total value of to Russia / Total value of extra % of - agricultural output: Eurostat, Economic Accounts for Agriculture. Current prices. Production and of pig meat average Total Total extra Total extra / Total % 9.6 Total to Russia Total to Russia / Total % 3.0 Total to Russia / Total extra % 31.8 PIG MEAT - Average Total value of Total value of extra Total value of extra / Total value of % 16.0 Total value of to Russia Total value of to Russia / Total value of % 3.9 Total value of to Russia / Total value of extra % of - agricultural output: Eurostat, Economic Accounts for Agriculture. Current prices. 26 September

7 Production and of pig meat by main Member State (average ) PIG MEAT Denmark Germany Estonia Spain France Italy Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Poland Finland PIG MEAT Average QUANTITIES Production Exports Exports to Russia Average VALUE Production Exports Exports to Russia Denmark Germany Estonia Spain France Italy Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Poland Finland Trend = % change between 2011 and 2013: Decrease by more than -30%; Decrease between -5% and -30%; Change between -5% and +5%; Increase between 5% and 30%; Increase by more than 30%. - of - agricultural output: Eurostat, Economic Accounts for Agriculture. Current prices. Figure 1 Pig meat price, class E weekly EU average (/100 kg c.w.) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec avg Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development based on Member States communications. 26 September

8 Weekly prices for selected countries pig meat (/100 kg c.w.) PIG MEAT PRICES Weeks /32 38/37 28/07/14 4/08/14 11/08/14 18/08/14 25/08/14 1/09/14 8/09/14 15/09/14 % % % -2.6% Denmark % 1.0% Germany % -4.2% Estonia % -1.7% Spain % -2.4% France % -2.7% Latvia % -1.1% Lithuania % -2.5% Netherlands % -3.4% Poland % -3.2% Finland % -0.6% Source: Member States declarations. 26 September

9 The EU poultry meat market The European Union is a large producer of poultry meat (around 12 world ), after the US (19%) and China (17%) and a net exporter of poultry products with a self-sufficiency rate at 104%. In , the EU produced on average 12.6 of poultry meat; France, the UK, Poland, Germany, Spain and Italy are the leading producers, altogether producing 70 total EU poultry meat (8.8 accounting for 76 the value of poultry at producer prices). Poultry sector represents 5.2% on average in total agricultural output value. The EU imports around 82 of higher value-added products mainly from Brazil (70% of total EU poultry meat imports) and Thailand (20%), poultry breasts and other products, such as cooked preparations, etc. On the export side, around 40 the total quantity in carcass weight (1.3 on average) is shared between Saudi Arabia, Benin, South Africa and Hong Kong. Russia ranks on fifth place in EU export destinations with 8% or an average of of poultry meat, mainly fresh and frozen (92 total poultry meat exported to Russia) by France, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium (altogether 70 the quantity). However, the EU to Russia are a mixt between fresh and frozen valuable bone-in cuts and frozen mechanically separated meat of lower value. Nevertheless, since 2009, increased levels of domestic in Russia to increase the selfsufficiency targets have been limiting gradually the EU to this destination ( less in 2013 compared to 2009). The average value of EU total poultry export is 1.5 billion with Russia accounting for 5% ( 75 ). Week 37, EU average price situated at 190 /100 kg which is 2.6% lower than the week when the ban was announced yet higher than the average. The largest drop was recorded in Poland (-9.7%). However the movement on prices is not associated to the Russian ban. Feed costs are decreasing and supply balance is adjusting to that. Average producers margins over feed costs are stables and remain well above the five years average. and of poultry meat POULTRY MEAT - European Union () Total Total extra Total extra / Total % Total to Russia Total to Russia / Total % Total to Russia / Total extra % Total value of Total value of agricultural poultry value of in agricultural output % Total value of extra Total value of extra / Total value of % Total value of to Russia Total value of to Russia / Total value of % Total value of to Russia / Total value of extra % of - agricultural output: Eurostat, Economic Accounts for Agriculture. Current prices. 26 September

10 Production and of poultry meat average Total Total extra Total extra / Total % 10.3 Total to Russia 99.3 Total to Russia / Total % 0.8 Total to Russia / Total extra % 7.6 POULTRY MEAT - Average Total value of Total value of extra Total value of extra / Total value of % 7.4 Total value of to Russia 74.9 Total value of to Russia / Total value of % 0.4 Total value of to Russia / Total value of extra % of - agricultural output: Eurostat, Economic Accounts for Agriculture. Current prices. Production and of poultry meat by main Member State (average ) POULTRY Belgium Germany Estonia N.A. Spain France Italy N.A. Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Poland Finland United Kingdom N.A. POULTRY Average QUANTITIES Production Exports Exports to Russia Average VALUE Production Exports Exports to Russia Belgium Germany Estonia N.A. Spain France Italy N.A. Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Poland Finland United Kingdom N.A. Trend = % change between 2011 and 2013: Decrease by more than -30%; Decrease between -5% and -30%; Change between -5% and +5%; Increase between 5% and 30%; Increase by more than 30%. - of - agricultural output: Eurostat, Economic Accounts for Agriculture. Current prices. 26 September

11 Figure 1 Poultry meat price, weekly EU average (/100 kg c.w.) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec avg Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development based on Member States communications. Weekly prices for selected countries poultry meat (/100 kg c.w.) POULTRY MEAT PRICES /32 38/37 28/07/14 4/08/14 11/08/14 18/08/14 25/08/14 1/09/14 8/09/14 15/09/14 % % % -0.7% Germany % 0.0% Estonia Weeks Spain % 0.4% France % 0.0% Italy % -5.7% Latvia % -1.4% Lithuania % -1.9% Netherlands % Poland % Finland % 0.1% United Kingdom % 0.7% Source: Member States declarations. 26 September