National Drought Management Authority KWALE COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR JULY 2016

Transcription

1 National Drought Management Authority KWALE COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR JULY 2016 A Vision 2030 Flagship Project JULY EW PHASE Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators Rainfall report Minimal rains were received in the county during the month The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) is 47.3 which is below normal. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Livestock body condition was moderate compared to normal at this time of the year.. Milk production was 24 percent below normal. There was no livestock migration. There were no livestock deaths associated with drought. Access indicators Milk consumption was 16 percent below normal. Return distances were shorter than normal although they had increased from last month. Utilization Indicators The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was slightly below normal. Early Warning (EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend Mixed Farming Normal Stable Livestock Farming Normal Declining County Normal Stable Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Range/Value VCI 47.3 >50 Production indicators Value Normal Crop Poor to Good Condition(specify crop) fair Livestock Body Moderate Normal Condition Milk Production Litres Livestock Migration None None Pattern Livestock deaths (from No death No death drought) Access Indicators Value Normal Milk Consumption litres Return distance to 1.3 <5 Km water sources Utilization indicators Value Normal Nutrition Status, MUAC (% at risk of malnutrition) 5.3 <6.58 Seasonal calendar Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased household food stocks Land preparation Planting/weeding Long rains High calving rate Milk yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased household food stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Planting/weeding Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1

2 1.0 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE In the month of July, the mixed farming livelihood zone received a total of 10.4 mm for a total of 6 rainy days while the livestock farming livelihood zone received no rainfall. 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) The condition of vegetation in the county has worsened as showed by 3-month VCI which decreased by 24 percent from 47.3 in June to in July. Kinango sub-county recorded the lowest 3-month VCI of classified it in the moderate vegetation deficit category. Lunga Lunga sub-county s VCI was 38.5 which was classified in the normal vegetation greenness band. Lastly Matuga and Msambweni sub-counties had indices of and respectively and were classified in the very good vegetation conditions category. A matrix showing the vegetation conditions in Kwale County is provided below. The vegetation greenness is below normal for this time of the year for the county as shown in the graph below. 2

3 2.1.2 Pasture The condition of pasture has slightly improved this month in comparison to the previous month in both quality and quantity mainly in the mixed farming livelihood zone. In the livestock livelihood zone areas of Chengoni, Mackinon Road and Mwereni the pasture condition has deteriorated. The pasture available was likely to last for at least three months and one month in the mixed farming and livestock farming livelihood zones respectively. No constraints were reported in accessing pasture during the month under review Browse The condition of browse remained good in both livelihood zones similar to last month, a situation which was normal for this time of the year. The browse available was likely to last for five and three months in the mixed farming and livestock farming livelihood zones respectively. There were no constraints reported in accessing browse across both livelihood zones. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE Sources A half of the population in the county sourced for water from pans and dams in the month of July Other major water sources included shallow wells, piped water, and rivers as illustrated in the figure below. The amounts in the pans and dams, the main water sources were likely to last for approximately two months. 3

4 The main water in Kwale county in July 2 NATURAL PONDS 6% NATURAL RIVERS 8% SPRINGS 6% TAP WATER 8% BORE HOLES 3% SHALLOW WELLS 19% PANS AND DAMS 50% Household access and utilization The average trekking return distance from the main water source to homesteads increased from 1.3 km in June 2016 to 1.5 km in this month as shown in the graph below. The current distance was it was shorter than the expected distance of 2.14 km in the long-term average (LTA). Average household distance to water sources vs the long-term mean 3.00 Distance in km Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTA Average HH distance to water sources The farthest distance was recorded in the livestock farming livelihood zone at 2 km having increased from 1.7km recorded the previous month. The mixed farming zone recorded the shortest distance at 1 km, having remained similar to 0.9 km posted last month Livestock access The average return trekking distance from the main water source to grazing areas was 2.45 km having remained similar to 2.6 km recorded in June as indicated in the graph below. The current trekking distance was 36 percent below the expected distance of 3.92 km recorded in the LTA. 4

5 Distance in Km Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov LTA Average return distance to The livestock grazing farming areas livelihood 2016 zone recorded the longest distance of 3.2 km, having remained similar to last month s distance of 3.1km. The shortest distance was posted in the mixed farming livelihood zone at 1.7km which is a reduction of 18% from the 2.1km recorded last month. 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION Average return distance to grazing area vs long-term mean Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition was generally good for all species across the two livelihood zones. However, cattle in Mwereni in Lunga sub-county and, Ndavaya and Chengoni in Kinango subcounty, both in the livestock farming livelihood zone had fair to poor body condition due to deteriorating pasture quality. The early warning classification for the county for livestock body condition remained four similar to last month. The trend in body condition is likely to remain stable for both the large and small stock Livestock Diseases There were no unusual livestock diseases or deaths reported this month Milk Production Milk in the county was mainly produced by cattle similar to last month. The average milk production decreased by seven percent from ml bottles in June to 93.5 bottles in July The milk production was 24 percent less than the expected amount of 123 bottles in the LTA. 5

6 Average milk production at household level in Kwale County in July 2016 ver the long-term average No. of 750-ml bottles Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov LTM Milk Production The highest production was in the livestock farming livelihood zone at 134 bottles having decreased by 7 percent from 144 bottles recorded in June. The lowest production was posted in the mixed farming livelihood zone at 53 bottles having decreased by 7.5 percent from 57.3 bottles last month. 6

7 3.2 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION Stage and condition of food crops The main crops in the field are maize, cowpeas and cassava. In the mixed farming livelihood zone of Lukore, Mivumoni, Kikoneni and Dzombo, harvesting of maize in on-going while in Dumbule and Ndavaya maize is in the cob-formation and grain filling stages in the same zone. However, the condition in the livestock farming zone is poor due to the dry spell that occurred in the month of May that caused wilting. Cassava is doing well and is currently being harvested which is normal for this time of the year. 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 LIVESTOCK MARKETING Cattle Prices A three-year old bull was selling at Kshs 18,250 compared to Kshs 14,350 recorded the previous month which is a 27 percent increase as shown in the graph below. The increase could be attributed to the Ramadhan celebrations that took place during the month that increased the demand for cattle. The current price was 10.4 percent above the expected price of Kshs 16,471 in the LTA Average cattle prices vs the long-term mean Prices in Kshs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct LTM prices The highest prices were recorded in the livestock farming livelihood zone at Kshs 21,500 Average Cattle Prices while the lowest ones were posted in the mixed farming livelihood zone at Kshs 15, Goat Prices The average selling price of a medium-sized three-year old goat was Kshs 2,195 which was a 4 percent drop from last month s price of Ksh 2,283. Goat price trends in the county have been illustrated in the graph below and were normal for this time of the year. The highest prices were recorded in the mixed farming livelihood zone at Kshs 2,300 having reduced by a six percent margin from Kshs 2,446 recorded in June. The lowest prices were recorded in the livestock farming livelihood zone at Kshs 2,089 which was similar to Kshs. 2,120 reported last month. 7

8 Prices in Kshs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTM prices Average Goat Prices CROP PRICES Average goat prices vs the long-term mean Maize The market price of a kilogram of maize was Kshs 41.5 similar to last month and was normal for this time of the year. The highest prices were recorded in livestock farming livelihood zone at Kshs while the mixed farming livelihood zone recorded the lowest one at Kshs Maize price trends are provided in the graph below Posho (maize meal) A kilogram of posho maize flour was trading at an average price of Kshs similar to the previous month as illustrated in the graph below. 8

9 Prices in Kshs Average posho prices vs the long-term mean Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov LTM Average posho prices The price of posho was normal for this time of the year. The price in the livestock farming livelihood zone was Kshs 46.3 and Kshs 50.7 in the mixed farming zones. 9

10 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 MILK CONSUMPTION Milk consumption averaged ml bottles in July, indicative of a 13 percent drop from the previous month s consumption of 60 bottles. The current month s consumption was above normal for this time of the year by 15 percent. The milk consumption trend is shown in the graph below. Average milk consumption at household level in Kwale County in July 2016 versus the long-term average No. of 750-ml bottles Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTM Milk Consumption The highest consumption was recorded in the livestock farming livelihood zone at 52 bottles having reduced by 35 percent from 80 bottles consumed last month. The least consumption was posted in the mixed farming livelihood zone at 37 bottles having reduced by 8 percent from 40 bottles last month. 5.2 HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS The proportion of children sampled by gender this month was 1023 boys and 998 girls Nutrition Status The percentage of children at risk of malnutrition reduced from 6.5 percent in June to 5.3 percent reported in July 2016 indicating an 18 percent drop as illustrated in the graph below. The proportion of children at risk was highest in the livestock farming livelihood zone at 7.3 percent having decreased from 7.8 percent recorded last month. The higher levels of children at risk of malnutrition in the livestock farming livelihood zone are attributed to stock-outs of nutritional supplements in many health facilities and poor feeding practices. 10

11 Proportion of children at risk of malnutrion vs long-term mean % of children Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec LTM MUAC % at risk of malnutrition The least proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was recorded in the mixed farming livelihood zone at 3.3 percent having reduced from 5.3 percent recorded in June. The percentage of children at risk was lower than normal for this time of the year Health The major diseases reported this month included malaria, diarrhoea and upper respiratory tract infections mainly affecting children below the age of five years. 5.3 COPING STRATEGIES The coping mechanisms employed this month were consumption-based which included reliance on less preferred and/or less expensive food and reduction of the number and/or portion size of meals. 6. CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 FOOD INTERVENTIONS There was no food intervention during the month. 6.2 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS o Agriculture The department was building grain stores in Vanga and Dzombo wards in Lunga Lunga subcounty Amiran continued to install the water supply systems (drip kits and water tanks) for 10 identified micro-irrigation schemes which included Silaloni, Gulanze, Mtaa Puma, Mackinon Road in Kinango sub-county, Kithangathini and Vanga in Lunga Lunga sub-counties, Neema and Gombato in Msambweni sub-counties, and Burani and Mwabuga in Matuga sub-county. o Livestock production and veterinary departments The livestock production department has received two processing units for milk value addition to be distributed to Kinango and Dzombo wards once the rehabilitation for the shelters meant to house the units has been completed. 11

12 o Water The excavation of the larger water pan in the Chengoni Integrated Food Security Project funded by the European Union and implemented by NDMA was almost completed. Construction of a water trough for watering livestock and sanitation facilities is in progress. The department was constructing dams in the areas of Mbuguni in Matuga sub-county and Wamasa, Mtsarani, Chindi, Mband, Mtaa and Mtsunga in Kinango sub-county. Drilling of boreholes was on-going in Kilole and Gombato in Msambweni sub-county by the County government of Kwale. o Health and nutrition Routine activities were carried out such as growth monitoring, out-reaches and health education. 12

13 7. EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity/Conflict/Human Displacement There were no cases of insecurity, conflict or human displacement recorded this month. 7.2 Migration There was no abnormal human/livestock migration reported during the month. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The maize harvesting started last in the month in areas of Patanani, Kubo South, Mivumoni, Kikoneni and Dzombo in the mixed farming livelihood zone is expected to replenish stocks at the household level and are likely to last for one to two months. The realized harvest was below normal because of the poor temporal and uneven distribution of the rains. Not much harvest is expected in the livestock farming livelihood zones which recorded percent crop failure. However, light showers received have caused some pasture regeneration which will ensure availability of livestock feed. Livestock prices have slightly increased and will boost communities purchasing power and terms of trade particularly because food commodity prices have remained stable. Food commodity prices have remained within the normal ranges and are likely to fall as harvesting continues. Therefore, the food security situation is likely to remain generally stable in the county but declining in Kinango sub-county in the livestock farming livelihood zone. 13

14 8. RECOMMENDATIONS The veterinary department should continue disease surveillance and vaccination campaigns in Kinango sub-county in the areas bordering Tanzania for Rift Valley Fever and Lumpy Skin Disease. Post-harvest management training to farmers to reduce losses of the crops that are about to be harvested. 14