South Sudan Food Security Update

Transcription

1 South Sudan Food Security Update Produced by the Food Security Technical Secretariat of RSS. Collaborating Government of South Sudan Institutions 1. Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Cooperative and Rural Development. 2. Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries 3. Ministry of Health. 4. South Sudan National Bureau of Statistics. 5. South Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Commission Volume: 022 Month: May June 2014 Release Date: 3 rd June 2014 FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN SOUTH SUDAN Highlights: The continued conflicts in South Sudan most likely to jeopardised agricultural activities especially in the Greater Upper Nile States. Continued markets disruption expected throughout the scenario periods with ongoing conflicts. Constrained humanitarian intervention most likely to impact on the thousands of the displaced populations. Staple food commodities price spikes across the Country, most likely to constrained food accessibility to thousands of vulnerable households. FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK Food security situation in South Sudan remain fragile across the Country as the lean season peaks coupled with depleting food stocks in the households, the situation is being exacerbated by the continued conflicts. As a result there was massive displacement of civilian populations mainly from Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei over the last four months. Therefore food insecurity in South Sudan is most likely to persist through the lean season May to August, as compounded by markets disruption and staple food commodities prices spikes across the Country. As such reliance on East African Figure 1: Shows Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Map for Countries for South Sudan (projected from June-August 2014). most food commodities imports likely to continued over the scenario periods thus jeopardising the food accessibility of displaced population especially in three States of Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity due to shortage in food commodity supply impeded by inaccessible roads and insecurity which most likely to render them vulnerable to food insecurity and Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)-FSTS Juba. May-June

2 compelled them to depend on humanitarian assistance. However, without sustain humanitarian assistance, IDPs are more likely to slide to worse food insecurity situation (IPC phase 4 & 5) in the next few months, coupled with constrained humanitarian access during the rainy season. The most potential drivers of food insecurity during the lean season in South Sudan includes, the sustained conflict, continued market disruption, population displacement across the Country, humanitarian access constrained, cattle rustling, disruption of livelihoods and loss of assets being the main underlying cause of food insecurity in the Republic of South Sudan. The integrated food security phase classification (IPC) map shown in Fig 1, which was generated during Livelihoods Analysis Forum (LAF) meeting in Yei April 2014 indicates that currently over three point five (3.9) million population (about 31%) of the total population are in crisis and emergency food insecurity situation as from April to August. The map further indicates that some parts of Upper Nile, Unity and Jonglei are anticipated to have high food insecurity and likely expected to be in emergency situations (IPC phase 4) or worse Phase (IPC Phase 5) famine without massive humanitarian support. However, most parts of WBG, Warrap, Lakes, CES and EES are expected to have moderate food insecurity, stressed situation (IPC phase 2) except NBG and some few Counties likely to be in crisis IPC Phase 3. The Greenbelt livelihoods zone of WES and some Counties in CES likely expected to face minimum food security situation (IPC Phase 1) due to the likelihood of the first season crop harvest expected in July to August. NUTRITION SITUATION IN SOUTH SUDAN The general nutrition situation in South Sudan is worrisome especially the most affected States by the ongoing conflict. However based on the already existing factors such as conflict, displacement and disease outbreaks as well as food in security, there is a high risk of deterioration of nutritional status of the vulnerable population (children, women, elderly and IDPs) in the next three months. According to the integrated food security phase classification (IPC) analysis, the nutrition situation in most of the states was classified under stressed to crisis phases. As such, unless urgent and serious intervention is taken in order to avoid further worsening of the nutrition situation. Unity state is facing a very critical nutrition situation, due to a high level of violence and displacement, risk of increasing food insecurity and increased disease outbreaks with upcoming rainy season. Reduced access to health and nutrition services and supplies is also being reported due to insecurity and looting. Access to safe water sources varies across the state with many sources destroyed in Bentiu due to the recent violence. Access to safe water during rainy season is likely to be a major concern to be monitored closely. Therefore there is likelihood of a significant risk of increase acute malnutrition up to September especially for the rural population, IDPs and those in the displacement camps. While Nutrition programmes in Wau show peak Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) admitted from March to June. In Raja County usually SAM admission peak from April to July due to the Limited numbers of programme and partners implementing nutrition programmes, however the overall nutrition situation is indicative. Warrap state, given the current levels of vulnerability and the underlying conditions notable in Tonj North and East because of the IDPs that flee from neighbouring Unity State due to the conflict. As such, the likely seasonal flooding expected in July to Sept particularly in Twic, most likely to have deterioration in the nutrition situation. J onglei, currently most health and nutrition programmes suspended from Dec to date with shortage of stock as reported by health cluster, as a result of insecurity and humanitarian constrained that had render access to Bor hospital difficult and coupled with looted medical supply. Teams are conducting rapid response missions but very limited coverage due to restriction. Currently survey ongoing in Pibor by ACF but interrupted due to insecurity. Survey conducted by IMC in Pochalla in Feb showed surprisingly low rates of acute malnutrition and mortality. Pochalla Feb 2014 GAM 6.2% and 1.4% SAM, CDR 0.37 and 0.43 In April 2014, a team screened 5500 children in Akobo under MUAC and 34% of children identified as acutely malnourished while 10% identified as severely acute malnourished. May-June

3 MARKET PRICE TRENDS IN SOUTH SUDAN STATES MARKETS Generally, market prices of cereal in all the Figure 2: Sorghum Price in Selected Markets (Oct 2013-April major States markets show mixed trend from 2014) Oct 2013 to April As such, from October to December 2013, the States markets have witnessed significant increases of cereals prices with much fluctuation of other commodities prices. This has been indicated in figure 2, where market prices in Warrap State, Kwajok market in particular had significant increase of 40% while Wau market price increased by 20% and Juba market 11% increase of cereal prices as from Oct to Dec The persistency of cereal price increases in Kwajok and Wau markets had been attributed by cereal deficit from 2013, seasonal floods, crop failure, and poor road Figure: 3 Maize Price in Selected Markets (Oct 2013-April accessibility; inter-clans conflict, cattle 2014) rustling, and presence of IDPs population. In the same period of December to January there was a dramatic decline of 33% of cereal prices particularly in Kwajok market. However, price volatility of cereal was experience in Juba as from Dec 2013 to February As such there was significant increase of cereal prices in Juba market as a result of the conflict that erupted in Juba, market disruption due to insecurity, reduced cereal supply in the market, increase in population by the fleeing IDPs from conflict affected States and reduction of imported cereals especially from East African Countries due to fear of insecurity which all Source: Climis Data Base System. contributed to spikes of cereal prices. Similarly cereal prices remain relatively stable in Juba and Kwajok markets as from March to April Over the same Figure 4 :Goat Price in Selected Markets (Oct April 2014) Source: Climis Data Base System. period a significant increase of 8% of cereal prices was witnessed in Wau market. The relatively stable cereal prices in Kwajok and Juba markets had been attributed by the relative peace experience in these States, increased volume of cereal supply in the markets, resumption of normal business between the East African Countries, most IDPs started to return to their respective States, availability of relief food aids for IDPs that get their way to flood the markets and availability of other substitute cereals in the market. Conversely markets prices of maize grains decline significantly by 41% in Wau, 40% in Torit and 36% in Juba respectively as from March to April 2014, while market prices of maize grains remain relatively stable in Kwajok market over May-June

4 the same period. Extremely volatile maize grains market prices was experience in Kwajok in Warrap State from October to December This was as a result of the seasonal flood which affected the State, complete crop failure last year, coupled with inter clans conflict that had exacerbated the situation. Shortly from December to January it follows that dramatic decline of 32% and thereafter, prices remain constantly stable as shown in Fig 3. The significant decline of markets prices of maize grain in the three mentioned States had been attributed by availability of imported maize grains from East African Countries, preference of sorghum to maize grains, availability of food aids inform of maize grain in the markets, preference of milled maize flour to maize grains and enough maize supply. Figure 5: Goat to Sorghum TOT in Selected Markets (Oct April 2014). FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS BY STATE In a similar occasion, market trend for livestock especially goat prices in South Sudan varies significantly. In WBG State particularly Wau market for instance, the prices of goats increased significantly by 8% as from March to April However, a slight increase of 2% of goat s price was observed in Kwajok market in particular. However, the volatility of goats prices in Wau and Kwajok markets as indicated had been attributed by inadequate supply of livestock in the market due to insecurity coupled with rising demand for meat, high food commodity prices, high transport cost. Market prices of goats have significantly decline in Juba by 19% and Torit market by 17% respectively Source: Climis Database System. and this was influenced by sufficient supply of goats in the markets, increase number of livestock by the conflict affected IDPs fleeing for safety especially to CES and EES that had contributed to price decline in both States. However, in October to April the trading goats with sorghum vary considerably all over the States major markets in South Sudan (Fig 5). In Kwajok market, trading goats with sorghum had significant increase from March-April 2014 in favour of the livestock suppliers and as such it has impacted greatly to cereal purchasing power by most pastoral households. In Juba and Wau, the terms of trade for livestock especially goats had significantly declined in the last two months in favour of the cereal owners. While in Torit market there has been a stable terms of trade between livestock suppliers and cereal owners in the same period (at equilibrium). As such for both Juba and Wau markets, the quantity of cereal had considerably reduced that put the livestock suppliers at disadvantaged as they are subjected to sell more to obtain good quantity of cereal to meet their food demand. Food security situation in the State have dramatically CENTRAL EQUATORIA STATE deteriorated over the past few months following increased population in the State by the fleeing IDPs from the conflict affected States that triggered high demand for food, as food stock depletes from 2013 production; coupled with spikes in staple food commodities prices mostly those imported from the neighbouring East African Countries substantially impacted on the food security situation of most vulnerable households. As such the situation is expected to continue through the lean season. With probability of 35%, normal to above normal rainfall forecast, normal to above normal harvest is expected in the first season crop which most likely to improve households dietary intake. However, this will shift Counties of Yei River, Morobo and Kajokeji to (IPC Phase 1) minimum food security situation, Lainya and Terekeka to be in stress (IPC Phase 2) and Juba County expected to continue in crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to aforementioned factor (FAO Early Warning Report). Fishing activities expected to increase as an alternative livelihood by food insecure households in Terekaka County due to availability of water as well as cattle productivity improvement due to abundance of water and pasture. However, the situation is most likely to improve on the dietary diversity of poor food consumption households (MARF). The coping mechanisms employed by food insecure households are both sustainable and insurance for those in crisis situation. May-June

5 Food insecurity situation in the State is moderate with near EASTERN EQUATORIA STATE deterioration to households food consumption as the lean season peaks May-August. This was occasioned by depletion of food stock from 2013 production. With the probability of 35% normal to above normal rainfall focused except for Greater Kapoeta Counties, most farmers already planted first season crops such as groundnuts, maize, millet and some vegetables expected to mature early July-August to mitigate on the hunger gap. Food commodity prices in the markets have significantly increased over the past few months due to population increase especially from the fleeing IDPs mainly from Jonglei State and it is most likely expected to worsen the food security situation of poor, low income, market dependants, pre-urban, and vulnerable population. Based on the finding of Livelihood Analysis Forum (IPC) meeting in Yei, Budi, Lafon/Lopa, Kapoeta East and South are likely to slide to IPC Phase 3, crisis situation in the next three months. Meanwhile the other four Counties most likely to remain in IPC Phase 2 stress situation. However, this clearly indicates that there is varying food insecurity situation in the State. At the meantime no serious livestock diseases reported this period and the observed livestock body condition is good according the Sudan PET score. As such there is likelihood that improvement on the livestock productivity is likely and expected to impact on the food security situation of pastoral households. Fishing activities are mainly carried in Pageri and Nimule Payam for both consumption and commercial purposes. However, this has contributed significantly in improving the food security situation of most households engaged in fishing activities as an option of alternative livelihood. Coping mechanism employed by food insecure households this period include charcoal burning, brewing, sale of labour, petty business, eating less expensive food and reducing number of meal (insurance coping). Northern Bahr el Ghazal State is in IPC Phase 3 a crisis NORTHERN Bahr El Ghazal STATE food insecurity situation according to the analysis by the food security partners during Livelihood Analysis Forum meeting in Yei. This was as a result of so many contributing factors; such as the last year cereal production deficit, poor food consumption, low grain supply to the markets, high food commodity prices, insecurity due to current conflict in neighbouring Unity State, expected reduced trade flow during rainy season have been some of the underlying causes that impacted on households food security situation (FAO Early Warning Report). The most affected groups by this situation are the poor households especially the vulnerable groups and IDPs. The persistent incidences of increase livestock diseases such as anthrax, foot and mouth diseases, HS, CBPP, and PPR reported in Aweil centre, Aweil North, Aweil East, Aweil South and Aweil West most likely to deteriorate livestock health and body condition SMARF). As such the food security situation of pastoral households likely to be impacted negatively, never the less with the 20,000 heads of livestock being vaccinated by the County veterinary department it is likelihood that the situation might change to better coupled with the availability of water and pasture this season (SMARF). However, at the meantime 23% of the total population in the State have shifted to crisis coping strategies to obtain food and income. The situation is most likely to worsen with the onset of the lean season and the possibility of access as roads become impassable in the next three months due to rains. And coupled with expected seasonal flooding. Following poor crops production in 2013 due to floods, the WARRAP STATE State is experiencing some cereals deficit of 29,429 MT as food stocks get depleted and the lean season set in. It is likely that the food security situation of most households expected to deteriorate (CFSAM 2013). This was occasion with rising staple food commodities prices, and coupled with delay of Government workers salaries and lack of reliable income has negatively impacted on food access of vulnerable households and the situation may likely slide to crisis as rainy season approached, roads become impassable for transportation of food commodities and access to market become difficult. As such poor, low income, vulnerable and urban market dependents households food security situation is likely to change negatively in the next few months. As this compounded by the current conflict in Unity State along the border with Warrap State, it is expected to have negative impact on food commodities supply to some markets. However, the situation is likely to be cushion by the effort of humanitarian intervention in the areas of general food aid distribution to conflict affected 26,544 IDPs including food insecure vulnerable residents as well as food for education and supplementary feeding programs which are already ongoing in the State. With the normal to above normal rainfall focused this season, pasture and water likely to improve livestock productivity making milk and meat available to pastoral households. This will improve on their food security situation without any expected disruption to their livelihoods. Coping strategies used by food insecure households May-June

6 include insurance and crisis, and these are reduce number of meals, relying on less expensive food items, borrowing food and kinships. The major drivers of food insecurity in the State are the UNITY STATE current conflict leading to population displacement, constrained market access, staple food commodity price hikes, constrained humanitarian access, and livestock diseases outbreak, human sickness due to constrained health facilities and the likely expected typical seasonal flooding (FAO Early Warning Report). However, this occasioned with deterioration in food consumption in the State as 44% of the households have poor food consumption as compared to 23% poor (FSC) last year the same period and the situation is exacerbated by 78% of the households with the low dietary diversity score owing to food deficit (EFSA Report). Coupled with the lean season, own food stock depletion and non-functional markets due to insecurity it s most likely that food accessibility and availability to be impacted negatively especially for unaccompanied children, elderly, vulnerable, market dependants and IDPs population (EFSA Report). Based on the food security phase classification (IPC) analysis conducted in Yei April 2014, most of the Counties in the State are projected to be in (IPC Phase 4) emergency situation and only counties of Rubkona, Guit and Pnayijar are expected to be in (IPC Phase 3) crisis situation with possible high risk of sliding to phase 4 without humanitarian intervention (EFSA Report). Report from UNOCHA indicates that there is humanitarian intervention ongoing for displaced population and the refugee population in Yida camp. As such 24,300 IDPs targeted for NFIs and 526,000 targeted for assorted food aids distribution (WFP food distribution Report). Livestock body conditions are good with minor livestock diseases outbreak reported in Mayom County with no significant importance, although some pastoral households lost their cattle during the conflict (EFSA Report). Fishing activities has been impeded with insecurity and insufficient fishing gears which is likely to affect the food security situation of the households engaged in fishing. However, the situation has compelled 58% of the food insecure households to employed crisis and emergency coping strategies and are likely step to assets depletion coping without massive humanitarian intervention to curb the current food insecurity situation in the State. Food security situation in the State remain slightly moderate LAKES STATE with high risks of the whole State sliding to crisis situation, although Counties of Cueibet, Wulu, Awerial, and Yirol East are already in IPC Phase 3 (crisis situation) as per the finding of Livelihood Analysis Forum (IPC) meeting conducted in Yei. The situation was compounded by 34% poor food consumption households as a result of own food stock depletion from 2013 production. This occasioned with onset of the lean season and influx of 119,827 IDPs due to the current conflict in the Country, it is most likely expected to exacerbate the food insecurity situation of most households. Food insecurity likely to persist through the lean season as staple food commodity prices continue to shoot up and is most likely to be sustained above 2013 average price; hence impacting on households food consumption of poor, low income, IDPs, per-urban and urban population. With the early start of the rainfall this season, land preparation and planting of some crops started significantly as compared to 2013 agriculture season, although the current conflict and continued inter clans and cattle rustling activities in the State likely to impact negatively on crops production this year. Observed livestock body conditions are good according to South Sudan PET score. This was as a result of available water and pasture contributing to improve livestock productivity; as such the food security situation of pastoral households likely to be moderate with available meat and milk since livestock will be within the homestead. Fishing activities at increase as an alternative livelihood especially in Yirol and Awerial Counties and sale of livestock, wild food, charcoal burning, dependence on kinships, petty business are some of the coping strategies employed by food insecure households in the State. The food security situation in the State has dramatically UPPER NILE STATE deteriorateted in the last few months as a result of the current conflict and other underlying factors such as own stock depletion, high staple food commodity prices, asset looting, nonfunctional markets, high IDPs concentration of 197,280, delay of Government staff salaries and high morbidity in IDPs settlements due to poor hyiegen and sanitation. As such the situation is being exacarbated by dramatic deterioration in food consumption in the State with 35% of the houdeholds experiencing poor FCS as compared to 7% of the households with poor FCS in 2013 (FSMS R12). According to the findings of recent Livelihood Analysis Forum (IPC) meeting conducted in Yei April 2014, 50% of the total population most likely to be in IPC Phase 3 (crisis situation or worse Phase). As a result, out of twelve Counties in Upper Nile only Renk County with mechanised farming which produce enough cereal surplus May-June

7 reserve likely to continue to be in stress situation (IPC Phase 2) from June to August 2014 as compared to the eleven Counties which fall bwtreen IPC Phase 3 or worse. Food insecurity situation in the State most likely to persist through the lean season owing to possible rainy season impeding road accessibility making humaniatrian access for intervention difficult especially for the conflict affected Counties. However, despite of the hurdles in humanitarian access, UNWFP targeted 250,769 IDPs for assorted food aids distribution while UNFAO targeted 28,000 HHs for fishing equipments, 30,597 HHs for crop seeds and 23,013 HHs for vegetable seeds distribution which most likely expected to contribute significantly towards shifting the phase of food insecurity situation. With recent ceasion of hostility and normal to above normal rainfall expected agricultural activites likely to start (UNFAO seeds distribution plan 2014). Livestock body condition are good despite most pastoral HHs had lost their animals during the conflict period although no potential diseases outbreaks reported. Fishing activities ongoing in the Counties along the River Nile with significant reduction due to insecurity. Food inscure HHs are employing crisis and emergency coping strategies to earn their living. Food security situation in the State is minimal with less risk WESTERN EQUATORIA STATE of sliding to crisis due to exceptional good records of 2013 crops production with less cereal deficits in the Counties compared to the rest of the States in South Sudan. However, the overall surplus cereals production from last year s agricultural season amount to 72,739 MT of cereals in seven of the Counties with the exception of Mundri West, Mundri East and Mvolo Counties which had significant deficit. Although food commodity prices started to shoot up in the State market, access and availability of food for households consumption remain relatively stable except for the IDPs population in Mundri East and Mundri West Counties (RRC Report). With normal to above normal rainfall focused this season, farmers have already planted first season crops such as maize, groundnuts, cowpeas, millets and vegetables which most likely expected to be harvested mid of the lean season and significantly to mitigate on the hunger gap (SMAF&CRD). LRA activity have significantly reduced in the State due to current USA initiated joint military operation to halt LRA atrocity in the Region and positively influencing the State population to fully participate in agriculture production this year and agriculture production likely to increase tremendously in the State. A report from SMARF indicates that there was no significant livestock diseases outbreak in the State, thus improving livestock productivity to mitigate the food security situation of households holding livestock. Coping strategies employed include sustainable and insurance. The food security situation in the State most likely to WESTERN Bahr El Ghazal STATE deteriorate as the lean season set in with Counties of Wau and Raga remaining in stressed food security situation while for Jur River County it s likely to shift to crisis Phase. According to FSMS Round 12, households who are food insecure comprised of 6% in both Wau and Raja as compared to 17% for Jur River County, indicating that the food security situation in Jur River is worse than the two other Counties. This occasion with cereals deficit from last year s production, it is most likely that staple food commodities prices might spike especially during the lean season May to August. The current and atypical cattle migration from neighboring States of Warrap and Lakes due to conflict and cattle rustling will likely create chaos among the farmers and the pastoralists especially in Wau County. As such this might impact on food security situation of the host communities. However, farmers have started cultivation for the season, with normal to above normal rainfall focused, the food security situation likely to change when green crops harvest commenced around August to September, thus food consumption is likely expected to improve with dietary diversity. Fishing activities has relatively reduced over the past few months due to dropped in water level, as such households engaged in fishing activities shifted to sale of livestock to meet their food need especially Jur River County. Coping strategies used by food insecure households include sustainable and insurance at this period of the year. JONGLEI STATE Tension due to conflicts has jeopardised the food security situation as livelihoods are destroyed with accelerated displacements, leading to thousands of the population fleeing with no asset. With the persistence of the insecurity situation, there is already market disruption, humanitarian access constrains and coupled with the onset of the rainy season roads are likely to be impassable, thus impacting on the food accessibility of most vulnerable households. However, the food security situation is expected to be worse as the lean season set in; with depletion of own food stock from 2013 and dramatic increases in cereal prices as reported in central Jonglei to a tune of 150% in Lankien (Nyirol County) EFSA Report. During the recent May-June

8 livelihood analysis forum (IPC) meeting in Yei, 52% of the total population in the State have already fallen in IPC Phase 3 or high meaning that half of the population are in Phase 3 to 5. The worse affected Counties are Nyirol, Uror, Duk, Ayod, Pigi and Akobo according to the IPC analysis finding, and these Counties all fall in IPC Phase 4, emergency situation, Fangak, Twic East, Bor and pibor are in Phase 3 crisis situation. Meanwhile Pacholla County is in Phase 2 stress situation due to relative peace, border trade with Ethiopia and also good harvest from last year s production. Generally, the food security situation most likely to worsen due to the large number of civilian population displaced and camped in UNMISS compound, as such it s likely that cultivation in this agricultural season be greatly affected. The pastoralist households food security situations also most likely to deteriorate since livestock are being taken very far due to security concern making it difficult for the households in access milk and meat. The main coping mechanism employed by food insecure households is crisis but it is likely to slide to distress coping strategies without massive humanitarian support. May-June