The Future of Aquaculture and Its Role in the Global Food System

Transcription

1 The Future of Aquaculture and Its Role in the Global Food System James L. Anderson Director, for Sustainable Food Systems Professor, Food and Resource Economics University of Florida Aquaculture 2016 Opening Plenary Feb 23, 2016 Las Vegas, Nevada

2 The Problem Conversation heard in reaction to President Zoellick s interest in the World Bank investing in productive oceans Place: Elevator between 5 th and 1 st floors, World Bank, Washington DC Time: February 2011 Why would the Bank invest in oceans. It doesn t make sense. All the fisheries are already depleted What about aquaculture? Well, it s not sustainable. That sums up the problem

3 9 Billion by Billions % More Food Needed (Traditional Agriculture Only) Alexandratos, N. and J. Bruinsma World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA Working paper No Rome, FAO Source: NIC Report (2013); FAOSTAT; U.S. Census Bureau

4 Food Production Problem? % increase in per capita food supply since 1961 Food Supply kcal/capita/day US Recommended Daily Allotment Global Nutrition in Undernourished 799 kcal/capita/day 1500 food production is growing faster than population Obese, 600 Overweight, Adequately Nourished, 5166 Food Supply kcal/capita/day Source: FAOSTAT, WHO

5 Demand for Fish and Meat USD/Capita WEALTH Will it Continue to Grow?

6 Aquaculture is the Fastest Growing Food Sector Average annual growth rate (percent), Fish Capture fisheries Aquaculture Beef Pork Poultry Cereals Source: FAOSTAT, FishStat

7 Global Consumption of Animal Protein: 1980, 2011 (Excluding Eggs and Dairy Products) 450 Consumption (Million Tonnes) % 25% Fish 28% Meat 72% 15% 16% 15% Fish 31% Meat 69% Farm- raised fish Wild- caught fish Mutton & Goat Meat Poultry meat Pork Beef Source: FAOSTAT, FishStat

8 What is the role of Capture Fisheries? Wild, 57% Farmed, 43% MMT Wild Fish Farmed Fish Source: FAO FishStat (2013); Fish to 2030 (2013)

9 Have Marine Capture Fisheries Reached Their Maximum Potential? WORLD MARINE CAPTURE HARVEST in 2013: 81 MT Freshwater Capture (12 MMT in 2013) Maximum Additional Harvest from Sustainable Marine Capture Fisheries Sunken Billions Revisited (World Bank/Arnason) & EDF Study (Costello etal): Max Sustainable Marine Harvest World at MSY: Max Incl. Freshwater Capture (12 MMT in 2013) MMT (20% +/- ) MMT This Requires Major Reforms in Fisheries around the World Especially in Developing Countries DIFFICULT NOTE: Enhancement aquaculture could be used as a lever to encourage change Sources: Sunken Billions Revisited (Forthcoming); Potential for Global Fish Recovery (Forthcoming) ( model- report- summary.pdf) Fish to 2030 (2013); WRI (2015)

10 Future Production Growth must Come from Aquaculture Projection (Fish to 2030) Best Case: Freshwater + Global Marine Fisheries at MSY MMT Freshwater and Marine Capture Fisheries Wild Fish Farmed Fish Sources: FAO FishStat (2013); Fish to 2030 (2013) Sunken Billions Revisited (Forthcoming); Potential for Global Fish Recovery (Forthcoming)

11 Fish for Direct Human Consumption Wild, 51% Aquaculture, 49% MMT Wild Food Fish Farmed Food Fish Source: FAO FishStat (2013)

12 Fish to (Model Projection) S. Msangi, IFPRI M. Kobayashi, World Bank M. Batka, IFPRI S. Vannuccini, FAO M. Dey, Univ. of Arkansas J. L. Anderson, Univ. of Florida * Aquaculture : approx. 50% of total harvest * Aquaculture : approx. 62% of fish for direct human consumption * Aquaculture growth : 62% in 20 years between * Total fish supply (capture + aquaculture) growth : 24% in 20 years between

13 Aquaculture Supply Growth (1000 MT) Shrimp Crustaceans Mollusks Salmon Tilapia Pangasius/catfish Carp Other Carp Other freshwater Demersal Mullet Other marine More than 90% increase % increase projection 2020 projection data - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

14 Aquaculture Supply Growth: Regions * More than 100% increase between * India * Latin America and Caribbean * Southeast Asia * % increase between * South Asia (excl. India) * Middle East and North Africa * Sub- Saharan Africa * Less than 50% increase between * Everywhere else

15 Consumption Growth: Regions * More than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030 * South Asia (excl. India) * 30-50% increase from 2010 to 2030 * India 60 * Southeast Asia 50 * North America 40 * Middle East and North Africa 30 * China 20 * Sub- Saharan Africa 10 * (per capita down about 20%) 0 * Decline from 2010 to 2030 * Japan ECA N. Am. LAC EAP CHINA JAPAN SE ASIA SAR INDIA MNA AFR

16 Key Conclusions from 2030 Study Expectations for 2030: 1. Aquaculture will produce about 2/3 of food fish 2. China will consume nearly 40% of seafood 3. Production of tilapia, shrimp, will nearly double from 2010 to Largest tonnage gains will be in mollusks, carps 5. Aquaculture will grow fastest in India, Latin America, and Southeast Asia

17 With all this growth what is happening in the US market?

18 Per Capita Red Meat, Poultry, and Fish and Shellfish Consumption Pounds per Capita US per capita Seafood Consumption is stagnant? Remember the mantra 20 by 2000 in the mid- 1980s? Red Meat Poultry Fish & Shellfish Source: USDA (2015)

19 U.S. Per Capita Seafood Consumption: More Aquaculture - Fewer Species 1987 Tuna 3.51 Shrimp 2.29 Cod 1.68 Pollock 0.88 Flatfish 0.73 Clams 0.66 Catfish 0.60 Salmon 0.44 Crab 0.33 Scallops 0.33 Other 4.76 Total % 71% 2014 Shrimp 4 Salmon 2.31 Canned tuna 2.3 Tilapia 1.44 Pangasius & Ca+ish 1.21 Pollock 0.98 Cod 0.66 Crab 0.51 Clams 0.34 Others 0.86 Total % 94% % Change 74% 423% - 34% >1000% 202% 11% - 61% 54% - 48% - 82% - 10% Source: NFI (1990, 2015)

20 Growing Market Share and Product Innovation * Consistently Available * Consistent Quality * Stable or Declining Cost * Meet Consumer Demands

21 Reframe the Message to Consumers and Investors Compare with Other Animal Proteins Footprint Environment Efficient Resource Use Low Waste Cost/Value Nutrition Traceability Reliable and Consistent Sources: Marine Harvest Industry Handbook (2015); NMFS; Flachowsky (2002); SRAC Publication No. 282 (2009); FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 554 (2010)

22 Feed Conversion Ratio Kg Feed/Kg Edible Product Beef Pork Eggs Carp Chicken Shrimp Tilapia Catfish Atlantic Salmon Sources: Marine Harvest Industry Handbook (2015); NMFS; Flachowsky (2002); SRAC Publication No. 282 (2009); FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 554 (2010)

23 Source: World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future (WRI 2014)

24 Water Use Efficiency L/kg edible product Beef Pork Poultry Eggs (poultry) Rice Soybean Atlantic Salmon Tilapia Channel Catfish Source: Marine Harvest Industry Handbook (2015); Wu, Bazer, and Cross (2014); Boyd et al (2007)

25 Water Use Efficiency L/kg edible product Beef Pork Poultry Eggs (poultry) Rice Soybean Atlantic Salmon Tilapia Channel Catfish Source: Marine Harvest Industry Handbook (2015); Wu, Bazer, and Cross (2014); Boyd et al (2007)

26 Nutrient Emissions Kg/Tonne of Protein Beef Pork Tilapia Carps Catfish Shrimps & Prawns Chicken Salmonids Bivalves N emissions P emissions Source: Flachowsky (2002); Hall, Delaporte, Phillips, Beveridge, and O Keefe (2011)

27 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cheese Yogurt Fluid Milk Farmed Atlanic Salmon Canned Fish and Shellfish Fresh and Frozen Fish (Avg) Peanuts Eggs Poultry Lamb Pork Veal Beef kg CO2 eq./kg of edible product Source: Heller and Keoleian (2014) Marine Harvest Industry Handbook (2015)

28 Waste in the U.S. Seafood Production System Loss (MMT) Consumption Distribution and Retail Processing and Packaging Postharvest handling and storage Bycatch High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low Source: Love et al. (2015)

29 60 Long Term Commodity Price Trends USD/bushel (barrel) Corn Soybeans Wheat

30 8 Long Term Price Trends USD/lb Jan- 90 Sep- 90 May- 91 Jan- 92 Sep- 92 May- 93 Jan- 94 Sep- 94 May- 95 Jan- 96 Sep- 96 May- 97 Jan- 98 Sep- 98 May- 99 Jan- 00 Sep- 00 May- 01 Jan- 02 Sep- 02 May- 03 Jan- 04 Sep- 04 May- 05 Jan- 06 Sep- 06 May- 07 Jan- 08 Sep- 08 May- 09 Jan- 10 Sep- 10 May- 11 Jan- 12 Sep- 12 May- 13 Jan- 14 Sep- 14 May- 15 Farmed Salmon, 2-3 lb fillet, fresh Pork (Wholesale Value, retail weight eq.) Frozen Tilapia (Import) Broiler (Wholesale value, retail weight eq.) Shrimp, Shell- on, Frozen (Import) Sources: USDA, Urner Barry (2016), NMFS

31 70% Monthly Price Standard Deviation ( ) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

32 20.00% 15.00% Fresh Tilapia Import Monthly Price Rate of Change ( ) 10.00% Import Price Monthly Rate of Change 5.00% 0.00% % % % Jul- 92 Feb- 93 Sep- 93 Apr- 94 Nov- 94 Jun- 95 Jan- 96 Aug- 96 Mar- 97 Oct- 97 May- 98 Dec- 98 Jul- 99 Feb- 00 Sep- 00 Apr- 01 Nov- 01 Jun- 02 Jan- 03 Aug- 03 Mar- 04 Oct- 04 May- 05 Dec- 05 Jul- 06 Feb- 07 Sep- 07 Apr- 08 Nov- 08 Jun- 09 Jan- 10 Aug- 10 Mar- 11 Oct- 11 May- 12 Dec- 12 Jul- 13 Feb- 14 Sep- 14 Apr- 15 Standard Deviation % 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 4.78% 3.64% Price volatility less than pork 1.35% 2.35% 0.00%

33 20.00% Frozen 21/25 Shrimp Imports ( ) 15.00% Monthly Import Price Rate of Change 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% % % % Standard Deviation % 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% Feb- 91 Sep- 91 Apr- 92 Nov- 92 Jun- 93 Jan- 94 Aug- 94 Mar- 95 Oct- 95 May- 96 Dec- 96 Jul- 97 Feb- 98 Sep- 98 Apr- 99 Nov- 99 Jun- 00 Jan- 01 Aug- 01 Mar- 02 Oct- 02 May- 03 Dec- 03 Jul- 04 Feb- 05 Sep- 05 Apr- 06 Nov- 06 Jun- 07 Jan- 08 Aug- 08 Mar- 09 Oct- 09 May- 10 Dec- 10 Jul- 11 Feb- 12 Sep- 12 Apr- 13 Nov- 13 Jun- 14 Jan- 15 Aug % 4.76% Price Volatility More Than Pork 6.44% 5.93% 0.00%

34 700 Thailand Shrimp Production Tonnes Early Mortality Syndrome EST 2015 EST 2016 EST

35 30.00% Rate of Change in Import Price of Fresh Atlantic Salmon 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% Rate of Change % 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% % % % % % Feb- 85 Nov- 85 Aug- 86 May- 87 Feb- 88 Nov- 88 Aug- 89 May- 90 Feb- 91 Nov- 91 Aug- 92 May- 93 Feb- 94 Nov- 94 Aug- 95 May- 96 Feb- 97 Nov- 97 Aug- 98 May- 99 Feb- 00 Nov- 00 Aug- 01 May- 02 Feb- 03 Nov- 03 Aug- 04 May- 05 Feb- 06 Nov- 06 Aug- 07 May- 08 Feb- 09 Nov- 09 Aug- 10 May- 11 Feb- 12 Nov- 12 Aug- 13 May- 14 Feb- 15 Nov- 15 Standard Deviation 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 8.36% 3.58% % Price Volatility More than Pork 4.91%

36 US Imports of Fresh Chilean Salmon Infectious Salmon Anemia Outbreak Jan- 00 Jun- 00 Nov- 00 Apr- 01 Sep- 01 Feb- 02 Jul- 02 Dec- 02 May- 03 Oct- 03 Mar- 04 Aug- 04 Jan- 05 Jun- 05 Nov- 05 Apr- 06 Sep- 06 Feb- 07 Jul- 07 Dec- 07 May- 08 Oct- 08 Mar- 09 Aug- 09 Jan- 10 Jun- 10 Nov- 10 Apr- 11 Sep- 11 Feb- 12 Jul- 12 Dec- 12 May- 13 Oct- 13 Mar- 14 Aug- 14 Jan- 15 Jun- 15 KIlos

37 Aquaculture The Big Risk..DISEASE ISA salmon EMS shrimp NEED TO INVEST MORE HERE Better Farm Management Zonal Management Biosecurity

38 GOAL 2015 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture All Countries Diseases ***International market prices ***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Seed stock quality & availability Product quality control Access to disease-free broodstock Production costs - Others Environmental management Feed quality and availability Production costs - Fuel Banned chemicals / antibiotic use ***International trade barriers Infrastructure Market coordination Access to Credit Conflicts with other users Public Relations Management Not Important Moderately Important Extremely Important Asterisk indicates a Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey

39 60000 Farmed Salmon Production and Use of Antibiotics in Norway kg of active antiobiotic tones of Fish Antibiotics Use Farmed Fish Production Sources: FAO FishStat (2013); NORM- VET (2014); Grave, Engelstad, Søli, Håstein (1989)

40 G a.i/tonne harvested product Antibiotic Use Comparable with Other Protein Sources Source: Andreu Rico (2016) SeaWeb Seafood Summit content/uploads/2015/09/antibiotics- in- AquacultureShould- We- Be- Concerned- Andreu- Rico.pdf Chile Canada (B.C.) Scotland Norway Vietnam China Thailand Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands EU/EEA Food producing animals Sources: Bridson (2014). Four Region Summary Document: Salmon. MBA Seafood Watch; Rico et al Aquaculture; Dutch SDa Antibiotic Usage Report (2013); EFSA (2015)

41 Algae and Seaweed 28% of Aquaculture Volume 96% in Asia * Quality Protein Source * High Omega 3 content * Pollution remediation * Carbon Sequestration * Biofuel production * Extremely land and fresh water requirements

42 The Health Message * Health is important but secondary for the US consumer We are Obese! * Priorities for the Bulk of Consumers (not foodies, pregnant mothers or movie stars) * Convenience * Taste * Price * Perceived Value Photo: J.L. Anderson Photo: J.L. Anderson

43 Average US Intake per Week Compared to the US Dietary Recommended Intake Source: U.S.D.H.&H.S. and U.S.D.A Dietary Guidelines for Americans. 8th Ed. Dec Table /a- closer- look- at- current- intakes- and- recommended- shifts/

44

45 Farmed Salmon Wild Shrimp Farmed Wild Source: Source: retail/whole- foods- launches- unique- farmed- salmon- brand

46 With all this growth what is happening with the US supply?

47 35000 Marine and Coastal Aquaculture Production Tonnes (China) Tonnes (Norway &U.S.) Governance really matters 0 China Norway United States Source: FAO FishStat (2013) Source: takes- aim- at- senseless- catfish- inspection- program/#.vsvdbgwm7ie

48 Moving Forward * Manage Disease Biggest risk * Improve feeds * Reduce waste and improve efficiency * Eliminate fraud and lack of transparency Trust is essential * Challenge the bureaucracy * Improve the relationship with environmental community and traditional fisheries * Learn more about China: #1 importer & #1 exporter * Algae

49 Reframing the Message * Get the Story Right Aquaculture is the future * Get credible facts * Focus on production efficiency of resource use compared to other animal protein * Demand responsible production * Trust, transparency, and safety are essential * Nutrition that tastes good and good for the planet * Work with the environmental community, chefs and celebrities * Work with the fishing industry to develop markets

50 Conclusion * Aquaculture will continue to grow because fisheries cannot meet market demands * Aquaculture will dominate and lead the seafood industry * Low cost and reliable producers will usually win in a free trade world

51 Thank You Acknowledgement: Assembly of much of the data was done by Thomas M. Anderson Photo: J.L. Anderson