MaRIUS: Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of droughts and water Scarcity

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1 MaRIUS: Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of droughts and water Scarcity Our vision is that management of droughts and water scarcity will in future be more explicitly risk based, incorporating evidence of the full range of drought impacts for people and the environment, and a systemic understanding of their interactions and uncertainties.

2 Calculating drought risks Any estimate of the risks of water scarcity has to be conditional upon choices, c, made by various actors. Alongside these choices are hydrometeorological conditions, m, which we take as being entirely outside the control of a network of actors. Our risk analysis approach is based upon an event set, of observed and synthetic hydrometeorological conditions, {m i : i = 1,,n} where each event has a duration of several years and is probability weighted, by a corresponding probability, p i, which is itself uncertain. The severity of water scarcity, s, incurred by different actors during a drought is a function, f, of the physical preconditions, h, the severity of hydrometeorological conditions, m, and the choices, c, made by different actors during the drought, i.e. s = f(h, m, c).

3 Calculating drought risks Given the probability weights p i we can calculate probabilities P(s h,c), conditional upon h and c. Borgomeo, E., Hall, J.W., Fung, F., Watts, G., Colquhoun, K. and Lambert, C. Risk based water resources planning, incorporating probabilistic non-stationary climate uncertainties. Water Resources Research, 50 (2014) We consider a range of different consequences (impacts), k(s), of water scarcity For a given vulnerable area we can estimate expectations n i=1 k s h, c p i, and full distributions of potential impacts.

4 Why is this a difficult problem? Complexity of hydrometerological conditions Antecedent conditions Surface/groundwater interactions Spatial variation Human interactions with the aquatic environment Abstractions Storage Return flows Water quality Multiple dimensions of impact Economic (agriculture, industry, municipal supplies) Social, cultural, political Environmental Non-stationary historic conditions Uncertain future changes Contested objectives and knowledge

5 How should decision makers respond? Optimal risk Tolerable risk

6 What might this mean in practice? More explicitly risk-based water resources planning i.e. Probabilistic Explicit quantification of impacts and trade-offs Greater integration between water resources planning and drought planning Simulation testing of integrated strategies Extensive exploration of uncertainties and identification of robust and adaptive solutions

7 The MaRIUS approach Socio-technical framing of droughts and water scarcity Analysis of the impacts, risks and uncertainties: Ecology Socio-cultural Economy Industry Agriculture Climate Socio-economic change Hydrology Engagement and impact Risk integration and appraisal of management actions

8 Work Stream A: Controversies and governance of water scarcity How are the impacts and risks of droughts and water scarcity are currently understood and managed by key stakeholders? How is this understanding and management shaped by institutions, regulation and markets?

9 Work Stream B: Probabilistic analysis of droughts and water scarcity Climate event set Enhanced catchment hydrology Up-scaling to the national scale River and reservoir water quality Water resources system modelling

10 Work Stream C: Impacts of water scarcity Ecology Agriculture Economics Infrastructure Socio-cultural

11 Work Stream D: Synthesis of risks and evaluation of management options Impacts dashboard Analysis of drought management options and strategies Interactions and trade-offs between actors Stakeholder engagement in options and trade-offs

12 Pathways to impact Partnerships Recognising opportunities to influence A programme of knowledge exchange Co-production Working with brokerage partners Public engagement

13 Environmental Change Institute