Feed Outlook. Market Perspective. Grain Market Report. WASDE Market Report

Transcription

1 Feed Outlook Market Perspective Grain Market Report WASDE Market Report 1

2 WHEAT: Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised this month by 30 million bushels to 1,064 million, all on lower feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 29, implied less feed and residual usage for the third quarter (December- February) than previously estimated. This report also showed record U.S. corn stocks on March 1, which are expected to continue displacing wheat for feed use for the remainder of 2017/18. No other supply or use categories are changed this month. Based on NASS prices and marketings reported to date along with price expectations for the rest of 2017/18, the season-average farm price is unchanged at the range of $4.60 to $4.70 per bushel. World 2017/18 wheat supplies increased this month by nearly 3.0 million tons as production is raised to a new record of million, mainly on Morocco s higher production estimate as it recovered from a severe drought in 2016/17. Global supplies also increased with a multi-year reduction in Iran s food, seed, and industrial use, which raised carry-in stocks by nearly 2.0 million tons. Raw material prices US

3 EU wheat price Soybean meal, corn and wheat futures 3

4 Fish oil and fishmeal prices 4

5 Tilapia prices US salmon import price 5

6 International Milk Price Market developments Powders We have a strange situation concerning SWP. The spread between 6

7 SWP food and Feed price is high, at least 150 euro per MT difference. SWP prices in USA are much lower than in EU and both are selling SWP in the same regions, so either USA should go up or EU should come down. We expect slightly higher SWP price in EU, because dryers are used to dry SMP and WMP and less SWP will be dried the coming 2 months. SMP price increase rapidly from 1250 euro towards 1300 euro at the moment. SMP food prices are even much higher, so very likely that SMP feed will also increase further. The impact on the market of each time selling SMP from Intervention remains difficult to predict, but taking into account the good demand for SMP, we expect higher SMP feed prices, but moving up and down each time Brussels is selling volume. However the trend will be structural higher than in previous weeks/months coming from 1250 and going to 1500 euro. Market developments General Last week Brussels sold again SMP from intervention and this time demand for intervention powder was very high, almost 90,000 MT and Brussels accepted all bids above 1051 euro which was a total volume of approx. 24,000 MT. This huge demand had also a positive impact on the market. The reason why demand was good was mainly driven by higher SMP food prices, strong export figures, not much fresh product available. People also know that price levels of 1050 euro for SMP are very low and you can t make a mistake by buying at these levels. Next tender for intervention is by the end of May and it will be clear that Brussels will only sell at higher levels than 1050 euro. We expect that demand will be good again and buyers are willing to offer higher prices, because also 1100 euro or higher are still very attractive prices. We should not forget that total intervention stock is still around 7

8 350,000 MT and whether the market can absorb that kind of volumes without problems, remains to be seen. Butter and Cheese prices are still doing very good, so Milk prices will not decrease further, maybe even be able to increase further. Market developments vegetable Fats Coconut oil prices are moving up and down each day, but around levels of 1185 euro. Although we have seen much higher prices than in the last couple of months, we should not forget that current levels are still high. We expect prices will go down further in the coming months, but won t go below 1000 euro. Palm oil is also weaker around levels of 630 euro. There is a lot of news around Palm oil. EU is more and more against the usage of Palm oil and China is considering to exchange Soy Oil by Palm oil in order to buy less from US and more from other regions, what the impact will be on the palm oil price is impossible to predict. However, current levels of prices are very attractive to buy long ahead. AMINO ACID Lysine market: Tendency: stable with uptrend tendency Some producers increase price due to increase of corn price. Price is around ,49 usd$/kg. Methionine 8

9 Tendency: Soften Weak demand makes producers lowering their prices. Price is around usd$/kg Threonine: Tendency: stable Weak demand and producers are trying to get more orders. Price is around usd$/kg Tryptophan: Tendency: down a bit. Price started to go down a bit due to weak demand. Price is around usd$/kg Price trend for vitamins are down trend, There news that some Chinese producers will prolong their summer maintenance period to maintain price. VITAMIN Vitamin A: Early April, the BASF citral plant started manufacturing. However, due to legal obligation, BASF might have to serve the force majeure contracts first. In April some manufacturers tried to raise the price, but could not hold. Now price is still stable. Price offers in the market range quite big. 9

10 Vitamin B1: Market is still weak even though two of the main manufacturers has stopped the production. However, now the supply has become a little bit tight. Vitamin B2: Europe EFSA publishes scientific opinion that vitamin B2 is at risk, Guangji already stopped exporting to EU. Vitamin C: Since the price of vitamin C has stabilize, some manufacturers have resumed production. There are also new manufacturers planning to build, and there is a decentralized trend in the later period. After the Spring Festival, the actual transaction price of feed grade and food grade vitamin C showed a trend of recovery. Recently, the manufacturer stopped reporting and had a stoppage maintenance plan. A factory in Jiangshan is expected to do some upgrading and rebuilding, might be closed for 4 months from July onwards. Biotin: Recently market price is showing wide range for biotin pure. For 2% biotin, market price are downward trend. Vitamin D3: Some factory stop quoting and considering to raise price. India manufacturer raises price. Need to pay attention. One trader predicts the price to go up. Vitamin E : Stable, slowly decreasing. 10

11 Vitamin B5(Calcium pantothenate): Production capacity increased when a new manufacturer entered the market, but there are also news that main producer will stop production from middle of May due of summit meeting in early JUNE. Price keeps decreasing. Vitamin B6 Heard only Jiangxi Tianxin keeps regular production while the other producers face problems of the pollution. Vitamin B3: Chinese manufactures stop offering because of the shortage of the raw materials. Folic acid: Market is sluggish, price is stable. Vitamin B12: Market is weak, there have new producers go into the production. Price keeps decreasing, and it will be difficult for producers to increase again. Vitamin K3: Manufacturers sell chrome powder under pressure, but the downstream demand for vitamin K3 is light, and market prices have fallen. Choline chloride: Some producers are facing environment pressure, the price is stable. 11

12 Minerals is stable in the high side due to disruption from supply side. There are news that some Chinese producers will prolong their summer maintenance period to maintain price. MINERAL AND TRACE ELEMENTS: Phosphate. Stable. Fertilizer phosphate price has stabilized over the past few weeks. Supply and demand is normal. Production is Tunisia is still restricted. Q2 phosphoric acid price increases. Copper: Stable at the high side. Demand is good and market stays firm on the middle and long term. Outlook is bullish. On the supply side, capacity has increased. Manganous: Stable/Weaker. During Q2, Indian suppliers missed the market and now are coming back with better prices. One big producer is running full capacity and not willing to move prices. Emvironmental issues and good demands helps to stabilize the market. Zinc Oxide: Stable. During the last month, zinc metal was weaker and touched the 3000 level at LME. Some see this as the low side. Demand is good on medium term. Supply is tight for next quarter. Disclaimer: 12

13 Trouw Nutrition does not warrant or make any representations regarding the use, validity, accuracy, or reliability of, or the results of the use of, or otherwise respecting, the information/data in this report. Trouw Price Trends is an external e-newsletter provided by Trouw Nutrition. For further information please contact Mr. Heng Aik Jin. heng.jin@trouwnutrition.com TPT0013/17/TNAP Follow us on: Copyright 2017, Trouw Nutrition Asia. All rights reserved. Want to change how you receive these s? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list. 13