Below normal rains affect crops and pastoral areas in Southern and Eastern Ethiopia

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1 Crop monitoring in Ethiopia September 9 Date of issue: 13 October 9 Vol. 3-9 Below normal rains affect crops and pastoral areas in Southern and Eastern Ethiopia The rains in August and September have been clearly below normal in Ethiopia. Their impact for the crops is however relatively limited in the central highlands : region, West and central, Western and Northern SNNP. In these regions, average and even good yield are estimated by the Water Satisfaction Model for Wheat, Maize and to some extend for Sorghum. On the opposite, as illustrated by the Vegetation condition Index (fig 1) : - The impact of insufficient rainfalls is important in the lowlands, leading to longcycle crop s failure in south and east and in south SNNP. - The pastoral conditions in and in regions are very problematic, as they have received less than 2 of monthly rain in August and September representing around 5% of the normal. Figure 1. Vegetation Condition Index of August and September 9 in relation to the historical maximum and minimum values of the period 1999 to 8 i i VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX in % August September Produced by: EC JOINT RESEARCH CENTER IPSC Institute, MARS Unit, FOOD-SEC action,tp266, Ispra (VA), Italy Contact: Head of MARS Unit: Simon Kay - FOOD-SEC Coordinator: Olivier Leo Bulletin author: Michel Massart michel.massart@jrc.ec.europa.eu

2 CROP MONITORING IN September 9 FOOD-SEC Joint Research Center - EUROPEAN COMMISSION Rainfall analysis ERITREA ERITREA i i KENYA SOMALIA KENYA SOMALIA Rain () Figure 2. Monthly rainfall of August (left) and September (right). Data derived from ECMWF model. In August, good rains for a normal crop development were reported by ECMWF model in the main production areas of, and. In September, the decrease of the MEHER rains is earlier and stronger than normal in and in North. In the pastoral areas of and regions, less than 2 of rain has been received monthly during the August-September period. ERITREA i ERITREA i Rainfall difference < > 3 KENYA SOMALIA 2 KENYA SOMALIA Figure 3. Monthly August (left) and September (right) rainfall anomaly in : Difference with last ten years average (1999-8) The monthly difference with the last ten years average rainfall for August and September 9 shows a below normal situation, affecting the main crop areas of Central and regions where 7 % of normal rains have been recorded since June. The situation is particularly problematic for the and regions where the cumulative rainfall since June represents only 4 % and 5 % of the average rainfall for that period. In these regions which received normally around 5 per month in August and September, this decrease has a dramatic impact on the crops and on the biomass and water available for livestock.

3 CROP MONITORING IN September 9 FOOD-SEC Joint Research Center - EUROPEAN COMMISSION Analysis of Remote Sensing and Water Satisfaction model - Maize The monthly difference with historical average (1999-8) for August and September shows two contrasting situations. Good vegetation conditions are observed in the main production areas of, and central while a large decrease of vegetation is recorded in the south of SNNP, in Eastern, in and. Following the Water Satisfaction Model, maize has completed its crop cycle in most of the regions except in where maize is at 6 % of its cycle. Looking at the model estimations, good and average yield (1.8 t/h) are expected in north SNNP and in west. Poor yield or crop failure is forecasted in the south SNNP and in south and eastern. In where the crop cycle is not yet completed, spots of crop failure can be expected particularly in the East of the region. The vegetation index profiles (Fig. 8) for Maize, confirm these observations with close to average profiles in most of the maize production zones of and. Large decrease Small decrease No change Small Increase Large decrease Small decrease No change Small Increase i Large Increase No data i Large Increase No data Figure 4. Monthly August difference with the long term average (1999-8). Figure 5. Monthly September difference with the long term average (1999-8). " Crop failure " Poor yield " Average yield " Good yield " Very good yield Figure 6. Main maize production areas (from CSA stat, 1 / 2) Figure 7. Estimated yield at the end of September based on Maize Water Satisfaction Index model. 3

4 CROP MONITORING IN September 9 FOOD-SEC Joint Research Center - EUROPEAN COMMISSION West Gojam East Wellega,4,4,2 5,2 5, Rain Av Rain 9 Av , Rain Av Rain 9 Av West Wellega Illubabor,4,4,2 5,2 5, Rain Av Rain 9 Av , Rain Av Rain 9 Av Jia Liben,4,4,2 5,2 5, Rain Av Rain 9 Av , Rain Av Rain 9 Av Figure 8. Time series of crop specific and rainfall patterns in Ethiopia. The graphs compare the current season with the historical average and the previous year. 4

5 CROP MONITORING IN September 9 FOOD-SEC Joint Research Center - EUROPEAN COMMISSION Analysis of Remote Sensing and Water Satisfaction model - Wheat Looking at the monthly difference maps of figure 4 and 5, normal and even small increase of vegetation conditions are observed in the central wheat production areas. Wheat planted mid June has now completed its development stage. Average (1.4 t/ha) and good yields are globally estimated by Water Satisfaction Model in, and regions. This general observation should not hide spots of poor yield and crop failure in eastern and, in South and in the Rift valley. The vegetation profiles are, beginning of October, close to normal, except in Bale zone which shows a profile below average and below last year. It should be noted that Bale zone contributes to around 1 % of the Ethiopian Wheat annual production. Crop failure is estimated in the southern part of the zone but good yields are expected in the northern part where most of the wheat areas are located. " Crop failure " Poor yield " Average yield " Good yield " Very good yield Figure 9. Estimated yield at the end of September based on Wheat Water Satisfaction Index model. Figure 1. Main wheat production areas (FAO, 1999). 5

6 CROP MONITORING IN September 9 FOOD-SEC Joint Research Center - EUROPEAN COMMISSION South West Shewa,4,4,2 5,2 5, Rain Av Rain 9 Av , Rain Av Rain 9 Av North Shewa () East Shewa,4,4,2 5,2 5, Rain Av Rain 9 Av , Rain Av Rain 9 Av Arsi Bale,4,4,2 5,2 5, Rain Av Rain 9 Av , Rain Av Rain 9 Av Figure 11. Time series of crop specific and rainfall patterns in Ethiopia. The graphs compare the current season with the historical average and the previous year. 6

7 CROP MONITORING IN September 9 FOOD-SEC Joint Research Center - EUROPEAN COMMISSION Remote Sensing Analysis - Sorghum The monthly difference maps with historical average (1999-8) for August and September show normal vegetation conditions for the western part of the sorghum production areas (see figures 4 and 5). A large decrease of vegetation conditions is, as for maize, observed in southern SNNP and Southern as well as in eastern and in the lowlands of East. Sorghum cycle is now completed. In the high production zones of West and North Gonder, representing around 2 % of national sorghum production, close to average and above last year profiles are observed. On the other side, the profiles in South Omo and East Harerge (8 % of national production) reflect the poor rainy condition of the months of August and September with profile below last year and below average. Figure 12. Main sorghum production areas (FAO, 1999) 7

8 CROP MONITORING IN September 9 FOOD-SEC Joint Research Center - EUROPEAN COMMISSION West North Gonder,4,4,2 5,2 5, Rain Av Rain 9 Av , Rain Av Rain 9 Av South Omo East Harerge,4,4,2 5,2 5, Rain Av Rain 9 Av , Rain Av Rain 9 Av Figure 13. Time series of crop specific and rainfall patterns in Ethiopia. The graphs compare the current season with the historical average and the previous year. Coming activities : European Counities, 9 JRC Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. These boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC position. Legal Notice: Neither the European Coission nor any person acting on behalf of the Coission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication. Reproduction is authorized provided the source is acknowledged. Acknowledgements are due to the following organizations : ALTERRA, TAMSAT, METEOCONSULT and VITO. The mission of the JRC is to provide customer-driven scientific and technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring of EU policies. As a service of the European Coission, the JRC functions as a reference centre of science and technology for the Union. Close to the policy-making process, it serves the coon interest of the Member States, while being independent of special interests, whether private or national. 8