Farming, Food and Climate Change. Chad Kruger WSU, CSANR

Transcription

1 Farming, Food and Climate Change Chad Kruger WSU, CSANR Carbon Masters May 21, 29

2 Outline Climate change impacts on PNW agriculture? meta-level food security GHG s and Ag s Carbon Footprint? Direct Emissions vs. Life-Cycle Assessment Strategies for Improving Ag Carbon Footprint

3 Climate Change will... add another layer of complexity and uncertainty onto a system [agriculture] that is already exceedingly difficult to manage on a sustainable basis. --Coakley, et.al NOAA George E. Marsh Album The Oregonian

4 The Caveat "All models are wrong, some models are useful." Box, G.E.P., Robustness in the strategy of scientific model building, in Robustness in Statistics, R.L. Launer and G.N. Wilkinson, Editors. 1979, Academic Press: New York.

5 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on PNW Agriculture: Are there food security Risks?

6 US Corn: The Good and the Bad Schlenker and Roberts (28) National Bureau of Economic Research

7 Washington Assessment Project (28)

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9 Change in frost-free period (days)

10 Annual Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration ETo (mm) Pullman (CCSM3) 1 8 Precipitation 6 ETo 4 2 Baseline Baseline Pullman (PCM1) Sunnyside (CCSM3) Sunnyside (PCM1) Baseline Baseline

11 Seasonal (April 1- Sept 3) Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration ETo (mm) Pullman (CCSM3) Baseline Precipitation ETo Pullman (PCM1) Baseline Sunnyside (CCSM3) Sunnyside (PCM1) Baseline Baseline

12 Annual and Season Mean Temperature ( o C) Pullman CCSM3 PCM Sunnyside Annual Mean Temperature ( o C) Annual Mean Temperature ( o C) Baseline Pullman Sunnyside Season Mean Temperature ( o C) Season Mean Temperature ( o C) 5 5 Baseline Baseline

13 Hydrological Change Western Washington Precip Oct Feb Jun +3.6 to +5.4 F (+2 to +3 C)

14 What about Atmospheric CO 2 increase? IPCC Projections 9 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration (PPM) B1 A1B A Year Relative change of Radiation-use efficiency for wheat and maize simulated with the CTP model (Stockle and Kemanian, 29)

15 Pullman (6.2 Mg/ha) No CO2 CO2 Lind (4.3 Mg/ha) Winter Wheat St. John (5.1 Mg/ha)

16 Pullman (4.4 Mg/ha) No CO2 CO2 CO2 + Adaptation Spring Wheat St. John (3.7 Mg/ha)

17 Sunnyside (61 Mg/ha) No CO2 CO2 CO2 + Adaptation Apples Potatoes Othello (81 Mg/ha) No CO2 CO2 CO2 + Adaptation

18 Climate influence on pests J. Brunner

19 Codling Moth 25 Day of the Year First Flight First Generation Second Generation Fraction Third Generation Historical

20 Average Number of Days of Powdery Mildew Risk Cherries 12 1 Days Grapes 2 Historical Days Low Medium High Historical

21 Carbon Footprints: Direct GHG Emissions / C Sequestration and Life-Cycle Assessment (Including organic v. conventional )

22 Indirect GHG Emissions: fossil energy use, upstream emissions Energy Use in the US Food System Agricultural Production 21% Transportation 14% Processing 16% Heller & Keoleian. 23. Home Refrigeration & Preparation 31% Packaging 7% Food Retail 4% Restaurants 7% Energy Use in US Ag Production Electricity (nonirrigation) 18% Fertilizer Production 29% Herbicides / Pesticides 6% Irrigation 7% Miranoski. 25. Liquid Petroleum Gas 5% Natural Gas (non-irrigation) 1% Gasoline 9% Diesel Fuel (non-irrigation) 25%

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24 Pirog, Leopold Ctr. ISU, 21 1% of local produce

25 Energy considerations in food preservation sweet corn 316 cal/lb Units = cal / lb Processing energy commercial, home energy in container storage total Canning 261 glass / steel 1,+ 1,25+ Freezing 825 polyethelyne bag cal / 6mos 1,5+ Drying 161 1,6+ Fermenting ~5 adapted from Steve Moore, NC State CEFS, 28;

26 Direct GHG Emissions (Ag Sources ~7% of US total) CO 2 = < 1% Tillage, residue management, land conversion CH 4 = 65% Enteric fermentation, manure management N 2 O = 4% N loss from crops Estimated potential annual C sequestration by US ag soils MMt C (Lal et.al. 1999)

27 Net GHG [direct] assessments Cropping Method Global Warming Potential (lbs CO2 equiv / acre / year) Conventional No-till Organic Early Successional Kellogg Biological Station (Michigan) LTER,

28 European assessment on Organic X Highly yield dependent! X X Limited data! Limited data! X X X X Organic Farming in Europe: Economics and Policy Volume 6, chapter Climate and Air 2

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30 Rodale Farming Systems Trial ( ) (Drinkwater et al., 1998; Pimentel et al., 25) Fossil energy reduced by 33 5% over conventional Organic no-till reduces fossil fuel by 75%

31 Cumulative Energy (6-yr apple orchard, Zillah, WA) (MJ/ha) Org Int Conv Fertilizer 311* 8,91* 16,255 Insecticide 22,159 4,375 42,313 Fungicide 18,23 12,855 12,922 Weed control ,35 31,931 Labor 2,337 1,718 1,67 Machine 73,974 73,56 73,56 Fuel 173,4 182, ,919 Org. Conv. Electricity 1,794 1,794 1,794 Weed control: Total (no embedded energy) 14,592 12,4 Infrastructure 144, , ,188 Fertilizer 1 lb N 11,784 8,111 Total input 445, , ,489 Granatstein (adjustments) - 28 *energy for compost charged to poultry farm (Reganold et al., Nature, 21)

32 Othello_Red_SC-SC-P Othello_Min_SC-SC-P Annual carbon sequestration SaintJohn_CT_WW-SW-SF SaintJohn_RT_WW-SW-SF Pullman_CT_WW-SW-SB Pullman_RT_WW-SW-SB Pullman_NT_WW-SB-SW Pullman_CT_WW-SW-SP Pullman_RT_WW-SW-SP Pullman_NT_WW-SP-SW Othello_Rep_SC-SC-P-WW Lind_CT_WW-SF Lind_RT_WW-SF Carbon (kg CO2/ha/yr)

33 Why the Tillage Implement (ie. practice) is not Sufficient Protocol for C Storage

34 Life-Cycle Assessment: Wheat Preliminary data: Schenk, et.al. 28

35 N 2 O Emissions Monitoring: Loss of Reactive N due to poor NUE g N2O-N ha -1 d B Quincy Sand potato, corn, corn kg N ha -1 6 kg N ha kg N ha Hours after irrigation 35

36 Simulated annual nitrous oxide emission CropSyst IPCC estimate SaintJohn_CT_WW-SW-SF SaintJohn_RT_WW-SW-SF Lind_CT_WW-SF Lind_RT_WW-SF Pullman_CT_WW-SW-SB Pullman_RT_WW-SW-SB Pullman_NT_WW-SB-SW Pullman_CT_WW-SW-SP Pullman_RT_WW-SW-SP Pullman_NT_WW-SP-SW Othello_Rep_SC-SC-P-WW Othello_Red_SC-SC-P Othello_Min_SC-SC-P N2O loss (kg N/ha)

37 Strategies for Improving Ag Carbon Footprint

38 Reduced tillage in organic? Rodale, Farming Systems Trial

39 Perennial Crops

40 Growing your own N on-site Cover Crops, green manures Kura Clover in Corn Livestock manures

41 Kallenbach, et.al. 27 SAFS irrigation study on N2O emissions CT = Conservation Tillage ST = Standard Tillage NCC = No Cover Crop WLCC = Winter Legume Cover Crop Drip = 4% lower CO2 emissions

42 Contact Information: Chad Kruger Interim Director & BIOAg Educator WSU, CSANR 11 N. Western Ave. Wenatchee, WA