HCFCs, HFCs and alternatives. April 7, 2009

Transcription

1 Projected Supply and Demand of HCFCs, HFCs and alternatives Nick Campbell/Tom Werkema April 7, 2009

2 Contents t Future analysis CFC Production for MDIs in the EU HCFC and HFC production and demand trends Market forecast for alternatives

3 Future Analysis TEAP Task Force to respond to Montreal Protocol Decision XX/8 To request the Technology and Economic Assessment Panel to update the data contained within the Panel s 2005 Supplement to the IPCC/TEAP Special Report and to report on the status of alternatives to hydrochlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons, including a description of the various use patterns costs and potential

4 EU CFC Production ban European Council/Parliament voted Commission proposal to ban CFC production and export for Art. 5 country MDI manufacture 1 st January 2010 Analysis of alternatives projects indicates 4-5,000 tonnes of CFCs will be required over next 3 years by Article 5 CFC-MDI manufacturers Only remaining supplier will be China

5 HCFC Production and Demand Trends No change since October 2008 HCFC developed country production and demand is rapidly declining Developing countries are becoming self-sufficient in HCFC production although only China can produce all HCFC products HCFC 142b and 22 Feedstock use growing in all countries but rapidly in developing countries. Chinese demand is estimated t to have tripled over the past 6 years Without new production facilities, developing countries may have an HCFC production capacity shortage from 2010 for emissive/feedstock uses

6 HFC Production and Demand Trends (1) No significant change since October, 2008 Significant growth in Chinese HFC manufacturing facilities to meet global demand. Will accelerate w/ HCFC phase-out & increased HFC developing country demand USA HFC production growth (or import?) anticipated to meet demand needs of HCFC-22 refrigeration and a/c industry phase-outs, but little additional capacity growth Little additional growth in demand d or production in EU/Japan where regulations have already resulted in HCFC conversion to HFCs and other alternatives Impact of EU F-gas Regulation and MAC Directive on HFC production and demand not yet evident

7 HFC Production and Demand Trends (2) Interesting dynamics remain: Development of 4 th generation fluorocarbons How soon will significant volumes become available? Enabling a jump in technology HCFCs to HFOs? How does HFC alternatives volume demand match new production capacity? Will 4 th gen. investments delay further HFC investments (particularly non-134a)? Will 1234yf availability (or use of CO 2 in MAC) free up 134a volume from MAC for developing country use? 1234yf applicability in sectors other than MAC? How will HFC climate legislation develop? USA cap and trade proposal Australia ET scheme EU consideration of Montreal Protocol-type agreement

8 Market tforecasts for Alternativesti Few data published by not-in-kind alternative suppliers Continued growth in HC use in foam blowing and CO2 in refrigeration and air-conditioning areas CO2 developments in MAC in Germany Awaiting commercial production? Major multi-nationals l (Arkema, Dupont, Honeywell, Ineos) focusing on HFOs as 4 th generation fluorocarbons. Several products under evaluation. Leading product is 1234yf for MAC. Timeline for production uncertain, but trial volumes available; Possible commercial production in 2010; Toxicology testing proceeding

9 Background Slides (from October 2008 presentation)

10 Feedstock kuse For Fluoropolymer manufacture China 110kt (142b and 22) India 1kt (22) USA 130kt (142b, 22) EU 90kt (142b, 22) Russian Federation 30kt (142b, 22)

11 HFC Production (2) Developing Countries Only China is a significant producer with estimated production capacities 134a (150kt) 152a (110kt) 32 (50kt) 143a (20kt) 125 (50kt)

12 Estimated t capacities for HCFCs China HCFC-22: 450kt (24.75 ODP-tes) HCFC-141b: 110kt (12.1 ODP-tes) HCFC-142b: 65kt (4.23 ODP-tes) Argentina: HCFC-22: 8kt India: HCFC-22: 30-50kt Mexico: HCFC-22: 20kt Venezuela: HCFC-22: 5kt

13 HFC Production (1) Little published information Developed countries Few announcements of new HFC capacities i Existing production capacities 134a: EU (50kt); USA (120kt); Japan (40kt) 125: EU (15kt); USA (30kt); Japan (2kt) 143a EU (10kt); USA (20kt); Japan (2kt) 152a: EU (2kt); USA (20kt) 32: EU (5kt); USA (20kt) 245fa: USA (20kt) 365mfc: EU(20kt)