Moving from Impacts to Action: Actionable climate knowledge for risk management and adaptation planning in EAP. Selvaraju Ramasamy

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1 Moving from Impacts to Action: Actionable climate knowledge for risk management and adaptation planning in EAP Selvaraju Ramasamy Natural Resources Officer Climate, Energy and Tenure Division, FAO

2 The EAP region s agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change Climate of EAP region is diverse, with a wide range of temperature and precipitation variability Farming/food systems encompass lowland rice (river basins), upland intensive mixed (mountains), pastoral (arid deserts), artisanal fishing (coasts and small Islands) Heavy reliance on agriculture (~62%) High dependency on marine resources Limited agriculture infrastructure Monoculture in intensive farming systems threaten the sustainability Lowland rice 17% area; 42% agric. population Map Source: FAO (2001)

3 Impacts of quick and slow-onset hazards and creeping changes in climate are increasing Quick-onset hazards are already affecting the production systems (Storms in the Philippines, Viet Nam; temperature induced flash floods in Mongolia; floods in Mekong; red river etc.,) Webster et al. (2005)

4 Frequency (days) Impacts of quick and slow-onset hazards and creeping changes in climate are increasing Area affected by slow-onset climate extremes (e.g. drought, dry and wet spells) are expanding (e.g China, dzud in Mongolia, North East Thailand, Central highlands and northern mountains of Viet Nam; ENSO associated droughts in Indonesia, Philippines and Pacific Islands) Creeping changes in climate lead to crises in the future (e.g. changing rainfall pattern, salinity intrusion in Mekong, seasonality, temperature increase and associated length of growing period) First and last days of frost at Emerald (2 degrees in the screen) No. of days w ith >33 C

5 Demand - Supply mismatch Demand for climate information is diverse: localized, timely and easily understandable matches diverse cropping systems and decision cycles Suitable for user needs Policy makers, Institutions, Ag. service providers, irrigation managers, input suppliers, market intermediaries, local cooperatives, micro-financing, farmers, fisherman, livestock herders Climate, crop and livelihood data base Supply is often constrained by insufficient data and resolution Users often perceive that the information is general, data and technical terms not easy to understand Narrow, specific and precise information Fit the problem to the available tools and methods at hand scales of climate outlooks/scenarios and local agriculture decision making

6 Data and information flow in a generic climate change impact assessment framework Climate change scenarios Historical weather data Future weather data Climate scenario downscaling Future water availability Changes in extreme weather events Future technology trend Response to CO 2 change Crop growth simulation (Future) Difference in current and future yield distribution (Biophysical impacts) vulnerability context and socio-economics National/regional crop production scenarios for adaptation planning, policy development and investment decisions Crop data Soil data Agronomic Management Soil water balance Soil nutrient balance Weather, crop pest/ disease relationships Crop growth simulation (Baseline) Economic impacts climate risk assessment Farm level yield scenarios to decide management practices and adaptation actions at the local level

7 Interpretation and communication of results In East Asia and the Pacific, yields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels by up to 20 percent for rice, 13 percent for soybean, 16 percent for wheat, and 4 percent for maize because of climate change It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong John Maynard Keynes ( ) Emphasis on past impacts, current climate variability as an entry point to build resilience (climate risk management approach for adaptation) Risk Management approach applies at all time scales

8 Climate science, data and information to advance actionable climate knowledge Forecast Lead Time Protection of Life & livelihoods Harvesting and post harvest Fire Warning Marketing, irrigation decisions Water allocation, yield forecasting Crop choice, land allocation Water resource Planning Enterprise mix, land use Crop suitability scenarios Trade and commerce National Planning Scenarios Climate Change. Centuries Decades Uncertainty Outlook Prediction Guidance Climate Variability Months Seasons Years Threats Assessments Forecasts Weather 1 Week 2 Weeks Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Hours Minutes Days Applications in Agriculture Adapted from: NOAA

9 Frequency Scenario Based Risk Typologies and optimal strategies in agriculture High Resource protection and Sustainable natural resource management Farm level risk insurance, safety nets, risk sharing mechanisms Response to save lives and livelihoods and rehabilitation Emergency relief and rehabilitation Moderate Low Very Low Optimal use of resources Maximizing input use efficiency Enterprise diversification and risk coping mechanisms Strengthening social capital and community networks Response to save lives and livelihoods; promote alternate livelihood activities Transient livelihood options Catastrophic risk insurance Emergency response and rebuilding livelihood resources Minor Serious Extensive catastrophic Severity

10 Role of climate knowledge for risk management and adaptation planning Climate Impacts, Risks and Vulnerabilities and Baselines Managing Climate Risks (Climate/Weather information for decision making) Flow of input and communication Integration of climate change perspectives into food and agriculture Reduce Vulnerability and Enhance Adaptive Capacity Cross-cutting actions: capacity building gender inclusion coordination and communication partnerships, awareness raising and advocacy

11 Gaps in climate monitoring infrastructure and data collection networks, arrangements for data sharing

12 Policy relevant climate information Climate risk and impact hotspot (critical zones) and Adaptation Areas of Concern (AOCs) medium range forecasting (5 10 years) of impacts and vulnerabilities Changing boundaries and crop suitability zoning (e.g winter wheat in high latitudes) Seasonal patterns of risks and impacts in agriculture and food security (e.g ENSO outlooks and associated impacts; crop yield forecasting)

13 . Localized climate services for farmers feedback from information flow on the clients weather and crop phenology/ crop stages on the ground local context decision and community analysis of climate making with objectives and related risks and clients local vulnerabilities and perceptions adaptive options Historical climate data Historical climate impact data Weather and climate forecasts Market price of crops Near real time weather information communication of impact outlooks and management advisories information flow on local situation and community perception on risks and vulnerabilities Socio-economic data resources and land use local coping strategies local rules of thumb

14 Managing Climate Risks by Incorporating Weather and Climate Information for Decision-Making Prioritize information needs of vulnerable groups Enhance use of existing forecast products Customize extended range forecasts intra-seasonal and seasonal Train agriculture services to interpret and prepare localised impact outlooks and management alternatives Implement reliable communication strategies to reach the end users Climate Field Schools Farmer Participatory Climate Workshops Climate Information Centres Village Knowledge Centres Discussion Support Software

15 Expanding the coverage of early warning and climate information Weather website Electronic screen for meteorological early warning TV weather forecasting Telephone Mobile phone FG Early-warning dissemination platform FG Hub FG Newspapers Rural meteorological broadcast FG FG Information Provision and Feedback

16 Institutional partnerships, knowledge sharing and communication International/Regional Climate Centres National Hydro-meteorological Centres Regional and National Climate Outlook Forums Data and Information in Public Domain Data and Information Interpretation Ministry of Agriculture and other relevant line ministries Agro-meteorological services and Agrl. Research Institutes Impact Outlooks Agriculture Extension Service and Farmer Service Agencies Key interventions Management Plans and Localized Climate Responsive Adaptation Practices Smallholder Farmers and Local Institutions, Community Based Organizations (Farmer Groups, Cooperatives, Farmer Associations, Local Networks etc.,)

17 Institutionalizing climate forecast application in agriculture: Indonesian Experience Institutional proclivity and evolution The directorate of crop protection was created in 1972 In mid-1980s there was a shift in mandate After El Nino 1997, the impacts of climate variability on crop production became a major concern The Ministry of Agriculture included CRM within pest analysis and disaster division under the directorate of food crops protection from In 2005 a separate division of Climate Analysis and Mitigation was formed Risk Management Actions at local level At the district level IPM schools are converted into climate field schools Farmer cooperatives consider climate information as integral part of their decision BMG revisited the climate zones and provides customized forecasts to many districts Subbiah and Selvaraju (2006) in Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Challenges A WMO CLIMAG book

18 Climate Services for sustainable intensification in Northern Mountain regions of Viet Nam The northern mountain region often is affected by climate risks such as drought (winter spring); whirlwind, flood and flash flood and inundation (summer autumn) Agriculture services promote hybrid rice cultivation in the region Climate information plays a key role to support optimal allocation of land area for hybrids and varieties Efforts to enhance the use of climate information for stabilizing productivity of hybrid rice Delineation of areas suitable for hybrid rice cultivation based on climate related hazard and vulnerability Training provincial and district DART officials to prepare impact outlooks and management alternatives Climate information considered to advance community based disaster risk management

19 Improved climate and flood forecasting in Bicol region of the Philippines The region is prone to flash floods, typhoons, water stagnation, drought and landslides Characterized by type II climate Between , 28 tropical cyclones crossed the region and damaged billions of pesos worth of agriculture infrastructure Use of climate information for risk management and adaptation Strengthening monitoring infrastructure at the Barangai level maintained by Barangay captains (9 automated raingagues) Capacity of department of agriculture (DA), disaster managers, local community organizations to interpret climate information and prepare impact outlooks Setting up of communication system for delivery of information on time (SMS message exchange between the PAGASA regional office and Baragay captains)

20 Institutional arrangements and channels of communication for early warning, weather and climate information products Synthesis and processing data DA Regional Directorate Climate Unit SLPRSD/ PAGASA PAGASA Manila Provincial Agriculturist PDMC Municipal Agriculturist MDMC Agriculture Technologist BDMC F F F FG FG FG SS SS SS SS AWS AWS AWS AGMET AGMET BRS AGMET BRS BRS BRS BRS BRS BRS BRS

21 Opportunities and challenges for enhancing climate services for agriculture in EAP An effective information flow system from information providers to users is feasible within the existing institutional systems However, an end-to-end institutional feedback mechanisms need to be established Such application require significant monitoring infrastructure, database and capacity building efforts at various levels Institutionalization of the climate information application system is a key challenge On the positive side, ENSO association with rainfall and agriculture has been explained significantly Significant developments in converting uncertainties to action at local level Demonstration pilot studies showed significant benefit Regional and inter-national institutions are active in the field and establishing partnership to learn lessons is prerequisite