Cattle. January 1 Cattle Inventory Down 1 Percent. Other class estimates on January 1, 2004 and the change from January 1, 2003, are as follows:

Transcription

1 Washington, D.C. Released January, 0, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "" call Steve Anderson at (2) -, office hours : a.m. to :00 p.m. ET. January Inventory Down Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of January, 0, totaled.9 million head, percent below the. million on January, 03. All cows and heifers that have calved, at.9 million, were down percent from the 2. million on January, 03. Beef cows, at 32.8 million, were down slightly from January, 03. Milk cows, at 8. million, were down 2 percent from January, 03. Other class estimates on January, 0 and the change from January, 03, are as follows: All heifers 0 pounds and over, 9.3 million, down percent. Beef replacement heifers,.2 million, down 2 percent. Milk replacement heifers,.02 million, down 2 percent. Other heifers, 9.80 million, down percent. Steers weighing 0 pounds and over,.3 million, down 2 percent. Bulls weighing 0 pounds and over, 2.2 million, down 2 percent. Calves under 0 pounds,.2 million, down 2 percent. and calves on feed for slaughter in all feedlots, 3.8 million, up percent. The combined total of calves under 0 pounds, and other heifers and steers over 0 pounds outside of feedlots, 2. million, down percent. Calf Crop Down Percent The 03 calf crop was estimated at 3.9 million head, down percent from 02. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 2. million, down percent from 02. Mt An 2 (-0)

2 Revisions All inventory and calf crop estimates for July, 02, January, 03, and July, 03 were reviewed using calf crop, official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. Based on the findings of this review, small adjustments of less than one-half percent were made to previously released inventory estimates by class and calf crop. State level estimates were reviewed and changes were made to reallocate inventory and calf crop estimates to the U.S. total. on Feed estimates for January, 03 were revised upward by 2% based on feedlots which were added to the survey program due to the 02 Census of Agriculture. Special Note Preliminary 02 Census data were used in the review process for the 0 and revised 03 estimates included in this publication. States requiring -year historical revisions may carry a disjointed data series from their current historical data series. January, 03 and prior estimates contained in this publication will be republished in the, Final Estimates 9-03 publication which is scheduled for release on April, 0. This report was approved on January, 0. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Acting Chairperson Steven D. Wiyatt January 0 2 NASS, DA

3 and Calves and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, January, 03-0 Class as % of 03,000 Head,000 Head,000 Head,,882 Cows and Heifers That Have Calved Beef Cows Milk Cows 2, 32,3 9,2, 32,80 8, Heifers 0 Pounds and Over For Beef Cow Replacement Expected to Calve 2 For Milk Cow Replacement Expected to Calve 2 Other Heifers 9,28,2 3,8, 2,8 9,89 9,3, 3,,0 2, 9,80 Steers 0 Pounds and Over Bulls 0 Pounds and Over Calves Under 0 Pounds, 2,28,,280 2,, on Feed 3, ,8 03 as % of 02 Calf Crop 38,22 3,3 Totals may not add due to rounding. 2 Replacement heifers expected to calve during the year. and Calves: Number Grazing on Small Grain Pasture, 3-State Total, January, 03-0 Class as % of 03 Million Head Million Head Million Head Calves, Other Heifers and Steers Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas January Beginning Inventory Calf Crop and Imports and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, Item Million Head.. Million Head. 39. Total Supply 2 Slaughter Deaths and Exports Total Disappearance 2 Residual January Ending Inventory Final 02 and preliminary 03 estimates will be published in the "Meat Animals - Production, Disposition and Income" report published in April 0. 2 Totals may not add due to rounding...9 January 0 3 NASS, DA

4 AL AK AZ AR CA CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OR PA RI SC TN UT VT VA WA WV WY State and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January, 03-0 All and Calves as % of 03 All Cows That Have Calved as % of 03,000 Head,000 Head Percent,000 Head,000 Head Percent, 2. 8,8,0 2, 2,0,2 2,000, ,,0 2, ,,0,0 2,,0,, 0,880,2,0,30,. 3,0 2,2, ,, 3,0,2, ,0,0 2,0,,0 2,0,3 8 3,, 2, ,0 2,0,0,0 2,0,0 39,, 880,0,2,,,. 3, 2,2 3,0 80 2,, 380 3,0, , , ,0,, ,0, 2, ,0 2, 3.0 2,80,, , ,0 2, 2 2, ,0,0, ,0,, , ,,0, , 0 89,.0, ,.0,8.8 --continued January 0 NASS, DA

5 AL AK AZ AR CA CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OR PA RI SC TN UT VT VA WA WV WY State and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January, 03-0 (continued) Beef Cows That Have Calved as % of 03 Milk Cows That Have Calved as % of 03,000 Head,000 Head Percent,000 Head,000 Head Percent ,, ,,32, ,0. 2,,, ,, ,,2, , ,,, , ,2.2 28, , ,3.3 32,80.3 9,. 8,0. --continued January 0 NASS, DA

6 AL AK AZ AR CA CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OR PA RI SC TN UT VT VA WA WV WY State and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January, 03-0 (continued) Heifers 0 Pounds and Over Beef Cow Replacement Milk Cow Replacement Other ,000 Head,000 Head,000 Head,000 Head,000 Head,000 Head , , , , , , 3 2,23.,.2,3.9,0.0 9,8. 9,80. --continued January 0 NASS, DA

7 AL AK AZ AR CA CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OR PA RI SC TN UT VT VA WA WV WY State Steers 0 Pounds and Over and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, January, 03-0 (continued) Bulls 0 Pounds and Over Calves Under 0 Pounds ,000 Head,000 Head,000 Head,000 Head,000 Head,000 Head ,0, , ,2 0. 2, , , , , , , , , ,.,280. 2,2.9 2,.,.,.2 January 0 NASS, DA

8 AL AK AZ AR CA CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OR PA RI SC TN UT VT VA WA WV WY Calf Crop: Number by State and United States, State as % 02,000 Head,000 Head Percent , ,,, ,0,, ,000, ,8,00,000 3, , ,,, ,080,, 2 0,8 2.,,00, 3, ,223. 3,2.8 January 0 8 NASS, DA

9 AL AZ AR CA GA ID IL IN KY MD MI MN NV NJ NM NY NC ND OH OR PA SC TN UT VA WA WV WY and Calves: Total Number on Feed by State and United States, January, 03-0 State as % of 03,000 Head,000 Head Percent 289,0 3 2,0 2, , , , , , , Oth Sts ,29.8 3,8.9 and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. and calves on feed are included in the cattle inventory estimates by classes. 2 Other States include AK, CT, DE, FL, HI, LA, ME, MA, MS, NH, RI, and VT. AL, GA, NJ, and SC included in Other States beginning in 0, which impacts 0 as a percent of 03. January 0 9 NASS, DA

10 and Calves and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop United States, July, Class as % of 02,000 Head,000 Head Percent,,0 Cows and Heifers That Have Calved Beef Cows Milk Cows 2,0 33,0 9, 2,0 33,00 9, Heifers 0 Pounds and Over For Beef Cow Replacement For Milk Cow Replacement Other Heifers,0,00 3,0,0,0,00 3,00,0 Steers 0 Pounds and Over Bulls 0 Pounds and Over Calves Under 0 Pounds,0 2, 29,0,0 2, 29,000 Calf Crop 38,22 3,3 on Feed Revised. 2,0,8 Jan - Jun Jul - Dec 3 Period Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six Month Period, United States, Number % of Total Number % of Total,000 Hd Percent,000 Hd Percent 2,0.0, ,0.0, Total Revised. 38, ,2.8.0 January Inventory Calf Crop and Imports and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, January - June, Item Million Head. 29. Million Head. 28. Total Supply Slaughter Deaths and Exports Total Disappearance Residual July Inventory Totals may not add due to rounding January 0 NASS, DA

11 CA State and Calves: Number by Class, Selected States, and United States, July, All and Calves as % of 02 All Cows That Have Calved as % of 02,000 Head,000 Head Percent,000 Head,000 Head Percent,0 3,0,000,, 3,0,0,00,000,000 3,, 2,0 3,0,00,00 3,0,00,00,8,0 3,00 2,0 880,2, 2,0,80 2,0 2, 2,0,, 2,3 8,2, 2,,0,0 2,,0,0, Oth Sts 2,,0 9,3 9,0 CA,,0 Beef Cows That Have Calved 2,0 2,0 Milk Cows That Have Calved,000 Head,000 Head Percent,000 Head,000 Head Percent 0,0,3 2,03,2,3 2,0,,83 2 0,0,0 2,0,82,88 2,09,8,880 9, ,2, , Oth Sts,,,,0 Revised. 33,0 33,00 9, 9, January 0 NASS, DA

12 Reliability of January and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about,000 operators during the first half of January by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews and 83 percent of the reports were usable. Regardless of when operators responded, they were asked to report inventories as of January. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past years is. percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of.9 million head by more than. percent. Chances are 9 out of that the difference will not exceed.0 percent. January 0 2 NASS, DA

13 The following table also shows a year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past years have averaged 3,000 head, ranging from 0 to,9,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been equal to the final estimate one time, below the final estimate times, and above the final estimate 3 times. This does not imply that the January estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Item All Root Mean Square Error Reliability of January Estimates 2 Percent Confidence Level Difference Between First and Latest Estimates Percent Head Average Smallest Largest First Above Latest Number of Years First Below Latest Percent Percent,000 Head,000 Head,000 Head,000 Head Number Number ,9 3 All Cows Calf Crop Based on data from January through January Data in the above table do not reflect the -3 percent changes made during the 9- historic revision period. The root mean square error s would be about percentage point higher if these were included January 0 3 NASS, DA

14 Index Page Calf Crop by Six Month Period, United States... Calf Crop, by State, and United States...8 and Calves, Number by Class, by State, and United States, January... and Calves, Number by Class, Selected States, and United States, July... and Calves, Number Grazing on Small Grain Pasture, 3-State Total, January,...3 on Feed, by State, and United States, January...9 Reliability Statement...2 U.S. Balance Sheet, January...3 U.S. Balance Sheet, January -June... U.S. Class Inventories, January...3 U.S. Class Inventories, July... January 0 NASS, DA

15 The next "" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 23, 0. The United States Department of Agriculture (DA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the DA s TARGET Center at 2-- (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write DA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 32-W, Whitten Building, Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 0-, or call 2-- (voice or TDD). DA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERT ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: Select Today s Reports or Publications and then Reports Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by button which takes you to the page describing delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call FAX: (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at , : a.m. to :00 p.m. ET, or nass@nass.usda.gov.