Challenges and trade-offs of meeting long-term sustainable development goals

Transcription

1 Challenges and trade-offs of meeting long-term sustainable development goals 19 May 2014: Paul Lucas, Detlef van Vuuren, Marcel Kok, Anne Gerdien Prins and Stefan van der Esch 1

2 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Important outcome of Rio+20 summit Merge with the follow-up of the MDGs (expire by 2015) Be universally applicable Address 3 dimensions of SD and their interlinkages Goals accompanied by targets and indicators to track progress Poverty eradication and sustainable development Income poverty, education, health, inequality Agriculture and food security, water and sanitation, energy SCP, climate change, ecosystems, biodiversity Next to the large individual challenges, it also includes many 2 trade-offs and synergies between these challenges

3 Roads from Rio+20 : Do pathways exist that achieve a set of SD goals and how do they look like? Model-based analysis of pathways that simultaneously achieve a broad set of long-term sustainable development targets Focus on two key clusters of related challenges Food and biodiversity loss Energy and climate change Trade-offs with water, nutrients and health The study was targeted at Rio+20, but the results are even more relevant today 3

4 Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment IAM with strong earth system focus Description of GEC and HD, with possible response strategies Used in many international assessments IPCC, GEO, MEA, GEA, Ag-assessment New verion (IMAGE3.0) + book coming soon 4

5 Set of long-term sustainable development targets addressed in the study Targets are based on existing international agreements MDGs, UNFCCC, CBD Sustainable Development Goals avant la lettre Food and biodiversity loss Eradicate hunger by 2050 Slow the rate of biodiversity loss by 2030 and bring to zero by 2050 Energy and climate change Achieve universal access to modern energy by 2030 Avoid temperature increases above 2 C 5

6 With continuation of current policies, no breakthrough is to be expected Progress on human development; not enough to reach targets Biodiversity and climate continue to detoriate 6

7 Three pathways that achieve the targets Different combinations of technological and consumption measures All Pathways achieve the targets 7

8 Food and biodiversity loss Key elements: Improve access to food Alter demand for agricultural products Sustainable intensification of agriculture Address ecosystem fragmentation Protect ecological hotspots Mitigate climate change 8

9 Energy and climate change Key elements: Improve access to energy Avoid deforestation Increase energy efficiency Reduce non-co2 GHGs Invest in low- to zerocarbon technologies 9

10 Transformative action is required, with technological change greater than or similar to historic rates 10

11 There is no fundamental trade-off between poverty eradication and environmental sustainability Increase in food demand is primarily driven by population and income growth Full access to modern sources of energy has only little effect on CO2 emissions

12 Trade-offs and synergies Trade-offs Bio-energy helps to achieve the climate goal, but also complicates achieving those for hunger and biodiversity Increasing crop yields inevitably pushes up phosphorus and nitrogen use and potentially increases water use Creating protected areas and avoiding ecosystem fragmentation helps to achieve the biodiversity target, but complìcates the hunger target Synergies 12 Eradication of hunger and energy poverty avoids significant child deaths and improves income opportunities Ecosystem management and restoration improves water availability, carbon uptake and soil productivity Changing lifestyles reduces the required technological change and creates synergies between food and energy systems Reducing black carbon and ozone precursors improves health, reduces climate change and prevents ecosystem damage

13 Implications for the SDGs Create a consistent long-term vision with near- and mediumterm goals and targets Foster universal relevance by including targets that address issues like consumption, footprints, Planetary Boundaries and GPGs Include targets that also insprire non-governmental actors, such as soceity and business Provide visibility in the interlinkages between related targets that are grouped under different goals 13

14 Thank you for your attention! Summary report / Full report Interactive website with the summary Submitted paper Van Vuuren et al., submitted. Pathways to achieve a set of ambitious global sustainability objectives by Explorations using the IMAGE integrated assessment model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Papers based on this study specifically targeted at the SDGs Nilsson et al. (2013) Towards an Integrated Framework for SDGs: Ultimate and Enabling Goals for the Case of Energy. Sustainability 5 (10): Lucas et al (2014) Integrating Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in the Post-2015 Development Agenda: Goal Structure, Target Areas and Means of Implementation. Sustainability 6 (1):