MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT NO 1 OF 2015: TOMATO. Pest Alert: Tuta absoluta (Tomato Leaf Miner)

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1 MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT NO 1 OF 215: TOMATO Pest Alert: Tuta absoluta (Tomato Leaf Miner) The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has issued a Pest Alert on Tuta absoluta (Tomato Leaf Miner). Tomato plants are the main host of this pest, but other plants in the family Solanaceae, such as eggplant, peppers, potatoes and several weeds, are also attacked. The larvae (worms) of this minute moth pest tunnel inside leaves and may also enter the fruit. This damage causes leaves to dry up and die and fruit such as tomatoes to become unmarketable. The pest originated from South America and has successfully invaded parts of the EU, North Africa and some West and East African countries. The pest was detected in Sudan in 21 and the invasion has subsequently crossed the Sahara desert, being found in Kenya in 2. The most recent records are from Tanzania (unconfirmed) in August 2. There are no records of this pest occurring in South Africa. The main concern is that it can cause serious yield losses of 5 to 1% and it can rapidly develop resistance to pesticides. International travelers and the trading community are advised not to import host plant nursery material or travel with tomato fruit from any country into South Africa without following the necessary import procedures.more information about the pest is available on 1. INTRODUCTION The following text is a review of tomato marketing environment. This analysis is updated on a quarterly 1 basis. The interval covered in the current issue is from October 213 to December 2. This period is subdivided into five, 3 months long quarters. The issues discussed in the review are the trends in production, pricing, sales in the national fresh produce markets, exports, growth and volatility. 2. PRODUCTION TRENDS Figure 1 below illustrates the quarterly production volume and gross value of tomatoes. Quarterly production volume of tomatoes has gone down by 15.6% to tons in quarter 4 of 2, when compared to the quarterly production volumes in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2) and has increased by 3.5%, when compared to the quarterly production volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4 of 213). Quarterly production volume was moderately unstable with the lowest volume of and the highest volume of during the period under review. 1 Quarter 1 (January to March), Quarter 2 (April to June), Quarter 3 (July to September), Quarter 4 (October to December) 1

2 Tons Rand In quarter 4 of 2, the quarterly production value of tomatoes decreased by 16.7% to R , when compared to the quarterly production value in the previous quarter (quarter 3,2) and the value has gone down by 8.5%, in comparison to the production value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 213). In quarter 4 of 2, the gross value eased lower due to a decrement in production output and producer price. Figure 1: Quartely production of tomatoes Q4 213 Q1 2 Q2 2 Q3 2 Q4 2 Volume (tons) Gross Value (Rand) Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF 3. PRICING TRENDS Figure 2 below illustrates the quarterly producer prices of tomatoes. In quarter 4 of 2, quarterly producer price for tomatoes dropped by 1.3% to R4 4.35/ton, when compared to the quarterly producer price in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2) and the price has decreased by 11.6% in comparison to the quarterly price at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 213). Tomatoes prices eased lower in quarter 4 of 2, despite a 15.6% decline in tomato production in the same quarter. Producer prices were fairly stable above R4 /ton from quarter 4 of 213 to quarter 4 of 2. 2

3 Rand/ton R 4 6 R 4 5 R 4 4 R 4 3 R 4 2 R 4 1 R 4 R 3 9 R 3 8 Figure 2: Quarterly producer prices of tomatoes R 3 7 Quarters Q4 213 Q1 2 Q2 2 Q3 2 Q4 2 Price (Rand/ton) R R R R R Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF 4. SALES AT THE NATIONAL FRESH PRODUCE MARKETS Figure 3 below illustrates monthly volumes and prices of the tomatoes sold at national fresh produce markets. In December 2, tomato monthly volume at national fresh produce markets has increased by 1.4% to tons, when compared to the monthly volume of November 2 and the volume has increased by 11.7% compared to the monthly volume at the same in the previous season (December 213). Tomato volumes supplied at the market were stable above 21 tons from October to December 213 and 2. In December 2, tomato monthly price at national fresh produce market has gone up by 2.9% to R4 973/ton, when compared to the monthly price of November 2 and the price has dropped by 19.7%, in comparison to the monthly price at the same time in the corresponding season (December 213). Monthly price eased marginally lower in November 2, despite a 5.9% decrease in tomato volumes supplied across the markets and this can be ascribed to poor tomato uptake in the same month. 3

4 Tons Rand /ton Figure 3: Monthly sales of tomatoes at the national fresh produce markets Months Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan Feb Mar Volume (tons) Price (Rand/ton) Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec R 9 R 8 R 7 R 6 R 5 R 4 R 3 R 2 R 1 R Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF 5. Exports Figure 4 below illustrates quarterly export volumes and export values of tomatoes. Quarterly export volume of tomatoes was tons in quarter 4 of 2, which was 13% above, when compared to the quarterly export volume in the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2) and the export volume has decreased by 3%, in comparison to the quarterly export volume at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 213). Tomato exports eased notable higher in quarter 4 of 2, despite a 15.6% drop in domestic tomato output in the same quarter. The quarterly export value of tomatoes was R in quarter 4 of 2, which was 28.6% below the quarterly export value of the previous quarter (quarter 3, 2). The export value has decreased by 15.5%, when compared to the export value at the same time in the previous season (quarter 4, 2). In quarter 4 of 2, it was more profitable to export tomatoes when compared to quarter 4 of 213, since higher export values were recorded for volumes exported. 4

5 Volume (tons) Value (Rand) Figure 4: Quarterly tomato exports Quarters Q4 213 Q1 2 Q2 2 Q3 2 Q4 2 Volume tons) Value (Rand) Source: Quantec Easy data 6. GROWTH, VOLATILITY & STABILITY ANALYSIS The tomato industry growth rate was calculated from regression analysis results. The volatility and stability measures were determined by calculating the coefficient of variation for the various tomato industry statistical series. The formula for the coefficient of variation is as follows: V x i N Where: V = Coefficient of Variation = Standard deviation = mean = observation in quarter i x i N = Number of quarters The outcomes of these growth and volatility calculations are presented in Table 5. They are calculated using quarterly statistics and covered the same five-quarter period under review beginning in October 213 and ending in December 2. 5

6 Table 5: Tomato industry Growth Rates and Coefficients of Variation (October 213 December 2) Category Subcategory Growth Rate Coefficient of Variation Production Volume 3.7%.119 Gross Value of Production Value.3%.93 Producer Prices Value -3.3%.54 Export Volume -28.7%.833 Export Value -16.8%.659 Source: Calculated from Statistics and Economic Analysis Data As shown in Table 5, on average tomato production volume, gross value of production, producer price, export volume and export value were less volatile with variation coefficients of less than 1. Low volatility indicates that the industry has experienced minimum changes during the period under review. The tomato industry has experienced positive growth in terms of gross value of production and production volume. The industry has experienced a negative growth in terms of export volume and export value. 6

7 7. Acknowledgements Acknowledgement is given to the following information sources: 7.1 Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis Quantec Easy Data Peppadew International For more information contact: Director: Marketing Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Private Bag X 15 Arcadia 7 Tel: (12) Fax: (12) MogalaM@daff.gov.za Website: http//. Deputy Director: Commodity Marketing Tel: (12) Fax: (12) ElvisN@daff.gov.za Horticulture (Vegetables): Senior Agricultural Economist Tel: (12) Fax: (12) NdinannyiM@daff.gov.za Disclaimer: This document and its contents have been compiled by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the purposes of detailing the tomato industry. Anyone who uses this information does so at his/her own risk. The views expressed in this document are those of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries with regard to the industry, unless otherwise stated. The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries therefore, accepts no liability for losses incurred resulting from the use of this information. 7