Richard Kangalawe Institute of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Transcription

1 Food Security and Health in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Evaluate the Impact of Climate change and other Stress Factors Richard Kangalawe Institute of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania The 5th Conference on Global Health and Vaccination Research: Environmental Change and Global Health Tromsø-Norway, 6-8 June 2010

2 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Local perceptions and indicators of climate change 3. Environmental change impacts on livelihoods and food security 4. Environmental change and human health risks 5. Approaches in evaluating the local impact of climate change and other stress factors 6. Conclusions

3 The southern highlands of Tanzania

4 Introduction Tanzania like many other African countries is vulnerable to environmental change, particularly climate change and variability. Global warming will increase the frequency of extreme weather events e.g. floods and droughts, and increase health hazards related to infectious diseases It may also lead to food crisis resulting from depletion of water resources, especially where droughts are concerned.

5 Introduction The sectors potentially impacted by climate change and variability in Tanzania include: agriculture, human health, forests, water resources, energy, industry and transport. The talk highlights on the impacts of environmental change on food security and human health, with particular emphasis on the impacts of climate change and variability in the southern highlands of Tanzania. In this area agriculture, which is an essential component of food security, is largely rainfed - subjecting the area to occasional food shortage in years with extreme climatic events.

6 Introduction Occasional floods destroy infrastructure - affecting food distribution and access by the affected communities. Food security and/or insecurity varies spatially and temporarilly depending on environmental factors (e.g. rainfall patterns) Other stress factors (e.g. soil conditions, types of crops grown, socio-economic factors, access and infrastructure) also influence food security. Increasing temperature has increased health risks, e.g. highland malaria in the southern and other highlands of Tanzania.

7 Local perceptions of climate change in the southern highlands of Tanzania Climate - as rainfall, temperature, drought, floods, wind and humidity. Rainfall locally perceived to have been inconsistent and unpredictable over years. The variability is associated with increased seasonality of rainfall which affects their agricultural calendar. Decreased amounts of rainfall and disappearance of short rains that used to be received around September (Mbozi & Rungwe) Fluctuations in the onset of long rains. Most people acknowledge that temperature has increased over last 10 to 30 years

8 Local perceptions of climate change Local understanding of climate Chunya Mbeya Mbozi Rungwe Average Climate as rainfall Climate as temperature Outbreak of human diseases Climate as drought Climate as floods Climate as wind Climate as humidity (dryness of the air)

9 Temperature records for Mbeya Met. Station

10 Percent responses on local indicators of climate change Indicator of climate change Chunya Mbeya Mbozi Rungwe Total Increasing temperatures Shortened growing seasons Rainfall coming late in the seasons Recurrent food shortage Rainfall coming too early Increased incidences of drought Outbreak of other human diseases Outbreak of malaria Increased rainfall amounts Decreasing crop productivity Increasing crop productivity Decrease in number of livestock kept Outbreak of livestock diseases Outbreak of plant diseases

11 Local indicators of the perceived changing climate Some local indicators of climate change may be difficult to ascertain because of the complementarities that exist between climate phenomena and other stress factors. For instance, crop productivity may be a function of several factors, e.g. climatic, soil factors and agronomic practices. It may therefore be difficult to isolate the impact of climate change. However, local communities recognise the relationship between climate change and agricultural production, food security & health.

12 Environmental change impacts on livelihoods and food security in the southern highlands of Tanzania: Decline in agricultural productivity Livelihoods of the majority (80%) of people living in rural areas of Tanzania depend on agriculture (crops and livestock) and other natural resources. Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change/variability, which could in many parts of the country aggravate falling harvests, resulting in food shortages. Climate change is expected to shrink the rangelands which are particularly important for the livelihoods of livestock keeping communities.

13 Impact of climate change on agriculture and food security Droughts have become more frequent and rainfall patterns have become erratic and less predictable leading to poor harvests Water in rivers, ground and surface reservoirs is decreasing leading to increased vulnerability of irrigation systems

14 Impact of climate change on agriculture and food security Reduced soil moisture storage capacity, soil quality and fertility with higher temperatures Areas suffering from large decreases in rainfall will also experience reduced yields Reduced crop yields from rain-fed agriculture Reduced length of growing seasons Increased proliferation of pests and diseases due to higher temperatures and rainfall: Need for more agrochemicals and disease resistant crop varieties Reduced agricultural productivity and increased production cost

15 Impact of climate change on agriculture and food security Temperature increases make it difficult to grow some crops which are already close to their temperature limits Reduced yields have obvious consequences on food security Shortage of food lead to under nutrition and malnutrition leading to poor health and high mortality. Food security also affected by climate change related price increase.

16 Impact of climate change on agriculture and food security The locally perceived causes of food shortages included drought, floods, strong winds and excessive rainfall, all being influenced by environmental change. Increased rainfall could lead to nutrient leaching, loss of topsoil and water logging, thereby affecting agricultural production. Destruction of infrastructure, such as roads and railways, hampering crop and livestock haulage from main production to consumption areas. This may cause sharp consumer price increases limiting food access of poor market dependent consumers. This may have considerable impacts on the food security situation.

17 Elements of health affected by climate change 1. Food (under-nutrition and malnutrition) 2. Safe drinking water (quantity and quality) 3. Hazards (Storms, heat-waves, floods, land-slides) 4. Food-borne diseases 5. Water-borne diseases 6. Vector-borne diseases 7. Air-borne diseases

18 Environmental change and human health risks in the southern highlands of Tanzania Increasing temperature has caused human health impacts, e.g. increasing malaria in the highlands. Previously malaria-free highland areas now experience incursions of malaria As malaria transmission increases in the highlands, the likelihood of epidemics may increase due to the lack of protective genetic modifications in the newly affected populations. The social and economic costs of malaria are also huge and include costs to individuals, households, community and national level.

19 Environmental change and human health risks in the southern highlands of Tanzania Diarrhoeal diseases were also reported to be most prevalent during the rainy season, mainly between October and May. Respiratory diseases were reported to be most prevalent during the cooler months, especially from June to September. Climate change/variability may also interact with other stresses and additional vulnerabilities such as HIV/AIDS, resulting in increased susceptibility and risk of other infectious diseases (e.g. cholera) and malnutrition. Loss of labour

20 Environmental change and human health risks in the southern highlands of Tanzania Records from health facilities in Mbeya region confirm increasing malaria trends Long term data on malaria cases found at Igogwe Hospital in Rungwe district attests that malaria has steadily increased since the 1960s. Both outpatients and inpatients have generally increased especially since the early 1990s. Reported Cases and deaths due to Number of Patients (IPD) malaria at Igogwe DDH Year Year OPD IPD Deaths Ilembo Ifisi DDH 2006 Inyala HC Rungwe DH Ikuti HC Igogwe DDH Mbuyuni HC Chunya DH Mwambani DDH Vwawa DH Mbozi DDH

21 Environmental change and human health risks in the southern highlands of Tanzania The peaks in number of malaria cases coincide with climatic events such as El Nino, and warmer temperatures. The number of deaths between 1994 and 2007 also showed a generally increasing trend Deaths due to malaria Year Ilembo Ifisi DDH Inyala HC Rungwe DH Ikuti HC Igogwe DDH Mbuyuni HC Chunya DH Mwambani DDH Vwawa DH Mbozi DDH

22 Environmental change and health risks Livestock Climate change is expected to affect both pathogen and vector habitat suitability through changes in moisture and temperature, e.g. trypanosomiasis & tsetse fly Rift Valley Fever epidemics closely associated with El Nino events in East Africa, and could increase with a higher frequency of El Nino events. What about other livestock diseases? More research needed. Heat stress and drought are likely to have further negative impacts on animal health and production of dairy products.

23 Some local adaptations with malaria How do you tackle Malaria Chunya Mbeya Rural Mbozi Rungwe Total Treatment at hospital/health centre/facility Using ITN (Bed nets) Community education on preventive measures Buying medication from shops Environmental cleanliness (including draining stagnant waters, bush clearing) Sponging patient Boiled drinking water Total

24 Multidisciplinary approach to evaluate the impact of climate change and other stress factors A stress factor - any factor or combination of factors; be it environmental, socio-economical, health related or political, that have negative impacts on the natural resource base and community livelihoods. The climatic and non-climatic stress factors tend to compound the impacts of each other. An already stressed socio-economic environment become more vulnerable to environmental change (e.g. climate change/variability) compared to a less stressed environment under the same level of exposure to risks.

25 Other stress factors - causing of food insecurity Land use changes - the land previously used to grow food crops has increasingly been taken for commercial crops like tea (and bananas) production. The increasing replacement of farmlands for food crops by more commercial non-food crops like tea may negatively impact on food security in the long run. Other significant causes included crop diseases, crop pests, low soil fertility, lack of labour, weeds, lack of agricultural inputs, small farm sizes, destructive birds and use of low yielding local varieties. Land scarcity has led to decreasing farm size per household These are among the non-climatic stressors impacting on local food security in the area.

26 Other stress factors - health related Mobility It was noted in some villages, such as Ilembo that although there are still no mosquitoes in that area because of the very cold climate, there are many clinical malaria cases. Those who get malaria are bitten by mosquitoes when they travel outside the village This shows that apart from climate change mobility could be a compounding stress factor for the prevalence of malaria in some areas. Low incomes limited adaptive capacity (e.g. access to medical treatment).

27 Table: Examples of non-climatic stress factors in Mbozi District Rank Ntugwa Village Health related factors (HIV/AIDS infections; malaria) Crop and livestock diseases/pests Shortage of agricultural inputs Shortage of experts Water management problem in farmlands Declining soil fertility Crimes e.g. stealing food stuffs in fields Water logging during the rainy seasons Poor roads and other transport infrastructure Nyimbili Village Health related factors (HIV/AIDS infections; malaria) Declining soil fertility Shortage of agricultural inputs Poor road infrastructure Low prices of agricultural produce Inadequate livestock facilities Youth out migration Lack of capital Lack of clean and safe water

28 Using multidisciplinary approaches in the assessment of impacts of climate change and other stress factors Thorough understanding of the impacts of climate change and other stress factors related to food security and human health may need a multidisciplinary approach. Field experiences has shown that for establishing overviews on patterns & impacts of climate change/ variability participatory approaches can be applied, e.g. brainstorming, timelines and key informant interviews.

29 Using multidisciplinary approaches in the assessment of impacts of climate change and other stress factors For establishing the magnitude and impacts of various stress factors at community level matrix scoring can be used successfully. It raises the participants enthusiasm. Wealth ranking is helpful in social stratification (based on endowment of livelihood assets) - facilitates understanding of adaptive capacities and vulnerability to environmental change and other stress factors.

30 Using multidisciplinary approaches in the assessment of impacts of climate change and other stress factors However, for more quantitative analysis and projections, the participatory tools need to be complemented by the traditional ones like household surveys and modelling.

31 Conclusions The southern highlands of Tanzania are like many other parts of the country vulnerable to environmental change, particularly climate change. Agricultural production, which is an essential component of food security, is largely rain-fed, subjecting the area to occasional food shortage in years with extreme climatic events. Increased health risks due to environmental change impact on the population, including reduction of the labour force in agricultural production consequently affecting food security.

32 Conclusions While food production varies spatially depending on rainfall patterns, other stress factors such as soil conditions, socioeconomic, cultural factors, and infrastructure. These stress factors have often influenced availability and access to food items. Climatic and non-climatic stress factors tend to compound the impacts of each other An already stressed socio-economic environment become more vulnerable to environmental change like climate change/variability compared to a less stressed environment under the same level of exposure to risks. More detailed studies are needed to establish adaptation options to the negative impacts of climate change in the food security and health sectors.

33 Acknowledgement This presentation was supported the Research Council of Norway

34 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION