A Study on the performance of agricultural sector in India

Transcription

1 Indian J. Agric. Res., 51 (3) 2017 : Print ISSN: / Online ISSN: X AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATION CENTRE A Study on the performance of agricultural sector in India Laishram Priscilla*, Arsha Balakrishnan, Lalrinsangpuii and A.K.Chauhan Dairy Economics, Statistics and Management Division, ICAR-NDRI, Karnal Haryana, India. Received: Accepted: DOI: /ijare.v51i ABSTRACT The time series data at all India level on area, production and productivity of foodgrains, production and per capita availability of milk and eggs and production of meat were compiled and a decade wise analysis of growth rate, instability index and decomposition analysis was done to study the performance of agriculture sector. During the overall period, the area under food grains showed negative growth whereas production and productivity growth was positive. For milk and egg, both production and per capita availability showed positive growth. Meat production showed a positively significant growth rate. Growth rate in area, production and productivity of both vegetables and fruits was positive. In general, for foodgrains, the yield effect was higher than the area effect which could be attributed to increased use of high yielding varieties. For vegetables and fruits, the contribution of area effect was more than that of yield and the interaction effect suggesting that measures should be taken to improve their productivity. Key words: Decomposition, Foodgrains, Fruits, Growth Rate, Instability, Meat, Milk, Vegetables. INTRODUCTION Agriculture plays a pivotal role in the Indian economy. The Indian agricultural sector has undergone tremendous transformation over the years from a state of severe food crisis to self sufficiency in food grain production. The foodgrains production increased from 50 Mt in to a record production of 264.8Mt in (Govt. of India).The sector has also diversified towards high-value commodities such as fruits and vegetables, milk, eggs, poultry, and fish, in response to changing demand patterns fuelled by a growing economy and rising income levels. India s diverse climate ensures availability of all varieties of fresh fruits and vegetables. It ranks second in fruits and vegetables production in the world, after China. During , India produced million metric tonnes of fruits and million metric tonnes of vegetables (Indian Horticulture Database, 2014). The area under cultivation of fruits stood at million hectares while vegetables were cultivated at 9.40 million hectares. It is the largest producer of milk with a production of Mt during Despite such a rosy picture of the agriculture sector, India still continues to be plagued by poverty. Also, the fast growing population and rapid urbanization are throwing new challenges to the Indian agriculture. An analysis of the behaviour of agricultural production in the past and estimates of its growth rates will help to know the performance of the agriculture sector in the country. This paper therefore endeavours to analyze the changes, trends and growth in area, production and productivity of foodgrains, vegetables and fruits, production and per capita availability of milk and eggs and production of meat. Also, attempt has been made to analyze the magnitude of instability for foodgrains, vegetables and fruits. Decomposition analysis has also been performed to reveal the different magnitude of contribution of the growth of output by area, yield and interaction as done by authors such as Minhas(1964), Bastine and Palanisami (1994) and Mundinamani et al., (1995). MATERIALS AND METHODS The secondary data at all India level on area, production and productivity of foodgrains, vegetables and fruits, production and per capita availability of milk and eggs and production of meat were compiled from various issues of Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics, published by Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. The data were collected and compiled for 30 years, i.e., to and were further divided into three decades- Decade I from to , Decade II from to and Decade III from to In case of vegetables and fruits, due to insufficient availability of data, data were collected and compiled for a period of twenty years and divided into two decades, i.e., Decade I from to and Decade II from to The methods used in the study were estimation of growth rate with its test of significance, decomposition of growth components and instability analysis. To estimate the compound growth rate following formula was used: Log Y= a + t Growth rate = (exp ( )-1)*100 *Corresponding author s lp.ndri@gmail.com

2 The magnitude of instability for each crop area, production and productivity was calculated through the Coefficient of Variation (CV) as under. CV = Standard deviation/mean value x 100 In order to measure the percentage contribution of area, productivity and their interaction towards the production of foodgrains, vegetables and fruits, the technique of decomposition has been adopted as used by several researchers (Bastine and Palanisami, 1994; Bhatnagar and Nandal, 1994; Mundinamani et al., 1995, Kalamkar et al., 2002, Roy et al., 2015).The change in the production of Vegetables between any time periods can be expressed as Change in production=productivity effect + Area effect+ Interaction effect P= Y+ A+ A Y Where, P=P n -P 0, Y=Y n -, A=A n -, P 0 and are area, production and productivity in base year and A n, P n and Y n, are area, production and productivity in current year A and Y represent change in area and pro ductivity, respectively. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Production and requirement of foodgrains, milk, egg, meat, vegetables and fruits: The production and requirement of foodgrains, milk, egg, meat, vegetables and fruits in India is provided in Table 1. The projected demand of foodgrains by the end of 12 th Five Year Plan which is given at Mt (Kumar et al., 2009) is taken as the requirement of foodgrains. The requirements of milk, egg, meat, vegetables and fruits are calculated for the Indian population as per Census 2011 according to ICMR dietary recommendations. The table shows that there has been an increase in the production of all items from TE to TE Also, according to the table, India has a surplus in production of foodgrains, milk, vegetables and fruits but deficit in egg and meat production. Considering that India has a high level of poverty and malnutrition, these results points towards the inefficient management of the Public Distribution System and lack of cold storage facilities. Steps need to be taken up to increase the production of eggs and meat in the country. Growth rates of area, production and productivity: To estimate the growth performance of agriculture at the national level, time series data on area, production and productivity of food grains for the period to , and of vegetables and fruits Volume 51 Issue 3 (June 2017) 283 for the period to , were analysed. To understand the decadal performance, the whole period was divided into three decades, viz to (I decade), to (IIdecade), to (III decade) and overall period to , in case of food grains. In case of vegetables and fruits, the whole period was divided into two decades, viz to (I decade), to (II decade) and overall period to The growth performance of high value commodities such as milk, egg and meat were estimated by analyzing production of milk, egg and meat and per capita availability of milk and egg for the period to Foodgrains, Milk, Egg, Meat First decade ( to ): During this period the growth in area of food grains is negative, while the growth in production and productivity were positively significant. In case of milk and egg there is positive growth rate in both production and per capita availability. In the production of meat positively significant growth rate was observed. Second decade ( to ): During this period the same trend was observed in growth in area of food grains as in the first decade where it was negative while production and productivity registered positive growth rate. With regard to milk and egg there was positive growth in both production and per capita availability where per capita availability of egg was positively significant. With respect to meat production there was negative growth rate during this period. Third decade ( to ): This period witnessed positive growth rate in the area of food grains with production and productivity showing significant positive growth rate. As for milk and egg both production and per capita availability showed positive growth rate. Positively significant growth rate was observed in meat production during this period. Overall period ( to ): During the total period, the area under food grains showed negative growth rate whereas production and productivity growth was positive. As for milk and egg both production and Table 1: Production and requirement of foodgrains, milk, egg, meat, vegetables and fruits in India. Category TE TE % increase Requirement Deficit or Surplus (%) Foodgrains (in million tonnes) Milk (in million tonnes) Egg (in billion nos.) Meat (in million tonnes) Vegetables (in million tonnes) Fruits (in million tonnes) TE= Triennium Ending

3 284 INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH Table 2: Compound growth rate of area, production and pro ductivity of foodgrains, Production and per capita availability of milk and eggs and meat production. Particular Factor to to to to Foodgrains Area Production 3.176*** *** Productivity 3.508*** *** Milk Production Per Capita Availability Egg Production Per Capita Availability *** Meat Production *** *** 3.045*** Note: *, ** and *** denote significance at 10 per cent, 5 per cent and 1 per cent levels, respectively per capita availability showed positive growth rate. Meat production showed a positively significant growth rate during this period. Vegetables and Fruits First decade ( to ): There was positively significant growth rate in area, production and productivity of vegetables. As for fruits, area and production showed positively significant growth rate whereas productivity registered negative growth. Second decade ( to ): During this decade, vegetables showed positive growth in area and production and positively significant growth in productivity. With regard to fruits there was positive growth in area, production and productivity and the growth in area was positively significant. Total period ( to ): There was positive growth rate in area, production and productivity of both vegetables and fruits during this period. Table 3: Compound growth rate of area, production and pro ductivity of Vegetables and Fruits. Instability index of area, production and productivity: It is necessary to study the instability index for different variable in order to assess the consistency of growth performance. Table 4 indicates the index of instability of area, production and productivity of foodgrains in India during the three decades to , to and to and overall period to From the table it is observed that the instability in area under foodgrains increased slightly from the first decade to the second but the third decade witnessed a decline in the same. As for production and productivity the instability was found to decrease in the second decade but increased in the third. The instability in productivity was found to be more than four times that of area instability during the first and third decade and almost double during the second. For the overall period the instability in productivity was more than seven times that of area. Particulars Factor to to to Vegetable Area 2.245*** Production *** Productivity 1.113* 1.723*** Fruit Area 3.541*** 2.455*** Production 1.518*** Productivity Note: *, ** and *** denote significance at 10 per cent, 5 per cent and 1 per cent levels, respectively Table 4: Index of instability of area, production and productivity of foodgrains in India during the three decades to , to and to and overall period to (%) Factor to to to to Area Production Productivity Table 5: Index of instability of area, production and productivity of Vegetables and Fruits in India during the two decades to and to and overall period to (%) Particulars Variable to to to Vegetable Area Production Productivity Fruit Area Production Productivity

4 The instability index of area, production and productivity of vegetables and fruits in India during the two decades to and to and overall period to is shown in Table 5. For vegetables, it is observed that instability in area and production has increased over the years while instability in productivity slightly declined during the second decade. In case of fruits, the instability in area decreased during the second decade while production and productivity instability Contribution of area, productivity and their interaction: With the help of additive decomposition model, the percentage contribution of area, productivity and their interaction on production of foodgrains, vegetables and fruits has been analysed and presented in Tables 6 and 7. A perusal of Table 6 reveals the effect of area, yield and their interaction to the production of foodgrains during the three decades to , to and to and also the overall period of to In the first decade ( to ), the Volume 51 Issue 3 (June 2017) 285 Table 6: Contribution of area, productivity (yield) and their interaction to food security in the production of Foodgrains in India during the three decades to , to and to and overall period to Particular Variable to to to to P (100) (100) (100) (100) Y Foodgrains (106.95) (108.56) (98.10) (112.25) A (-3.48) (-7.73) (1.58) (-6.97) A Y (-3.48) (-0.83) (0.32) (-5.28) Note: The values within the parentheses are percentage share of column total (P= Production in million tonnes, A= Area in million ha, Y= Yield in tonnes/ha, P, A and Y are change in production, area and yield, respectively.) contribution of yield to foodgrains production was found to be higher and even offsetting the area effect and interaction effect. Similar result was obtained for the second decade. In the third decade, the area effect was positive but its percentage contribution (1.58 %) was much lower than the yield effect (98.10 %). For the overall period, the contribution of yield effect offset that of area and interaction effects. So, in general we observed that the yield effect was higher than the area effect which can be attributed to the increased use of high yielding varieties and fertilizers. Similar results were obtained by Kalamkar et al. (2002). In case of vegetables, as seen from Table 7, in the first decade, the area effect played a major role contributing % to total production followed by yield effect (24.04 %) and interaction effect (6.40 %). Similar result was obtained for the second period where area effect contributed % followed by yield and interaction effects contributing and 8.41 % respectively. For the overall period also, a similar pattern was seen as area effect Table 7: Contribution of area, productivity (yield) and their interaction to food security in the production of Vegetables and Fruits in India during the two decades to and to and overall period to Particulars Variable to to to Vegetables P (100) (100) (100) Y (24.04) (24.02) (23.34) A (69.55) (67.47) (58.26) A Y (6.40) (8.51) (18.40) Fruits P (100) (100) (100) Y (15.89) (58.07) (23.68) A (76.50) (35.61) (56.89) A Y (7.61) (6.32) (19.42) Note: The values within the parentheses are percentage share of column total (P= Production in 000 tonnes, A= Area in 000 ha, Y= Yield in tonnes/ha, P, ÄA and Y are change in production, area and yield, respectively.)

5 286 INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH contributed %, followed by yield (23.34%) and interaction effect (18.40 %). As for fruits, in the first decade, among the three effects, the area effect was found to contribute more (76.50 %) followed by yield effect (15.89%) and interaction effect (7.61 %). In the second phase, a different picture can be seen where the contribution of yield effect is higher (58.07 %) followed by area effect (35.61%) and interaction effect (6.32 %). For the overall period from to also, similar to the first decade, the area effect contributed a major part (56.83%). So, in general, for vegetables and fruits we see that the contribution of area effect is more than that of yield and the interaction effect. This suggest that measures should be taken to improve their productivity such as varietal improvement and appropriate technologies, as increasing the acreage under them can pose difficulties due to limited availability. CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS It was seen that India has a surplus production in terms of foodgrains, milk, vegetables and fruits. It raises a question why as to large section of the Indian population is plaqued by poverty and hunger? The answer to this partly is the inefficient management of the public distribution system (PDS) and the lack of infrastructural facilities such as cold storages. This points to the need for a reform in the functioning of the PDS. Government needs to take up measures for storage and transportation of perishables such as milk, vegetables, fruits, eggs and meat. The area under food grains showed negative growth rate whereas production and productivity growth was positive during the overall period from to For milk and egg, both production and per capita availability showed positive growth. Meat production showed a positively significant growth rate. There was positive growth rate in area, production and productivity of both vegetables and fruits. In terms of contribution of yield, area and interaction effects to growth of output, for foodgrains, the contribution of yield effect offset that of area and interaction effects which can be attributed to the increased use of high yielding varieties and fertilizers. In general, for vegetables and fruits we see that the contribution of area effect is more than that of yield and the interaction effect. This suggest that measures should be taken to improve their productivity such as varietal improvement and appropriate technologies, as increasing the acreage under them can pose difficulties due to limited availability of cultivable land. Agricultural extension services aimed at offering information and improved inputs, including seed and cultivars for better crop diversity, small livestock and poultry ventures, marine fisheries and aquaculture will be helpful. REFERENCES Bastine, C.L. and Palanisami, K.P. (1994). An analysis of growth trends in principal crops in Kerala. Agricultural Situation India, 48: Bhatnagar, S. and Nandal, D.S. (1994). Growth in wheat in Haryana. Agricultural Situation India, 49: FAO (2012). Food Insecurity in the World. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Government of India (2015) Economic Survey, ,Ministry of Finance, New Delhi. Gulati, A., Kumar, A., Ganesh, S., Ganga and Nandakumar,T.(2012). Food and Nutrition Bulletin, 33: Indian Horticulture Database (2014), National Horticulture Board, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Govt. of India. Kalamkar, S. S., Atkare, V. G. and Shende, N. V. (2002). An analysis of growth trends of principal crops in India. Agricultural Science Digest, 22: Kumar, P., Joshi, P.K. and Birthal, P.S. (2009). Demand Projections for Foodgrains in India. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 22: Minhas, B.S. (1964). Analysis of Crop Output Growth by Component Analysis. Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics, 16(1): Mundinamani, S.M., K.N.R. Sastry and T.N.V. Murthy. (1995).Growth performance of Oilseeds in Karnataka, Agricultural Situation India, 50: Roy, A., Singh, N.U., Dkhar, D.S., Mohanty, A.K., Singh, S.B. and Tripathi, A.K.(2015). Food Security in North-East Region of India - A State-wise Analysis. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 28: