The importance of context for conceptual frameworks: the UK NEA and beyond

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1 The importance of context for conceptual frameworks: the UK NEA and beyond Georgina Mace ESPA/BESS workshop: Framing ecosystem services 10 th October 2013

2 Outline What is a conceptual framework? How do conceptual frameworks differ from models and tools? Why and how to develop a conceptual framework. The UK National Ecosystem Assessment.

3 Conceptual frameworks, models and tools Frameworks are conceptual, not analytical tools. They lay out components of a complex system in order to clarify the important ones for the question at hand. Models allow relevant simplifications of complex processes. They are analytical and can then be used to test assumptions. Models can be helpful for clarifying what matters most, where uncertainties are influential and what the most influential parameters or variable in a system might be Tools allow users to undertake tasks. Without clarity of focus from a conceptual framework, and processes or relationships established by modelling, tools on their own may be useless of misleading.

4 TYPES of MODELS Static y = f(x) Dynamic dy/dt = Phenomenological Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Species-area curves GLOBIO Partial Equilibrium Economic Models? General Equilibrium Economic Models? Crop Production Models Population projections Economic Projections Epidemiological Models Population Viability Analysis DGVMs Epidemiological Models GCMs Thanks to Drew Purves

5 Tools, e.g computational tools

6 Filzbach takes your model and data, and returns probabilistic properties of model parameters given the data.

7 WHY AND HOW TO DEVELOP A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK?

8 Conceptual frameworks help clarify complex systems Identify essential components of the system Make explicit assumptions about the relationships among those components Give appropriate weight to the different components of the system, Highlight important uncertainties and gaps in understanding

9 Ecosystems, ecosystem services, science, biodiversity, wellbeing, poverty, governance, land use, value(s). These are all complex terms with contested meanings.

10 Place Site Location Drivers/ Interventions Direct Indirect Policy Markets Ecological Environmental Social Land/sea system Habitat Biome Land use Spatial scale Site Local Catchment Country Region Groups of people Decision-makers Land-owners Land-managers The poor Trade- mediators Ecosystem goods and benefits Food Fibre Water Energy Pest control Climate regulation Shared social values Ecosystem services Provisioning Regulating Cultural Benefits to people Income ( ) Equity Access Material goods Shelter Security Freedom Aesthetic Spiritual Temporal scale Days Months Years Seasons Decades Lifetimes Forest regeneration times Timescale for climate change impacts IN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES SCIENCE THERE ARE MANY DIMENSIONS AND POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS

11 Understanding Nature s Value to Society

12 Questions for the UK ecosystem assessment Q1: What are the status and trends of the UK s ecosystems and the services they provide to society? Q2: What are the drivers causing changes in the UK s ecosystems and their services? Q7: How might ecosystems and their services change in the UK under plausible future scenarios? Q8: What are the economic implications of different plausible futures?

13 Place Site Location Drivers/ Interventions Direct Indirect Policy Markets Ecological Environmental Social Land/sea system Habitat Biome Land use Spatial scale Site Local Catchment Country Region The UK NEA Groups of people Decision-makers Land-owners Land-managers The poor Trade- mediators Ecosystem goods and benefits Food Fibre Water Energy Pest control Climate regulation Shared social values Ecosystem services Provisioning Regulating Cultural Benefits to people Income ( ) Equity Access Material goods Shelter Security Freedom Aesthetic Spiritual Temporal scale Days Months Years Seasons Decades Lifetimes Forest regeneration times Timescale for climate change impacts

14 UK NEA Conceptual Framework REPLACE *Note that the term good(s) includes all use and non-use, material and non-material benefits from ecosystems that have value for people. 14

15 ESPA ESPA s goal is to ensure that, in developing countries, ecosystems are being sustainably managed in a way that contributes to poverty alleviation as well as to inclusive and sustainable growth

16 Place Site Location Drivers/ Interventions Direct Indirect Policy Markets Ecological Environmental Social Land/sea system Habitat Biome Land use Spatial scale Site Local Catchment Country Region ESPA at programme level Groups of people Decision-makers Land-owners Land-managers The poor Trade- mediators Ecosystem goods and benefits Food Fibre Water Energy Pest control Climate regulation Shared social values Ecosystem services Provisioning Regulating Cultural Benefits to people Income ( ) Equity Access Material goods Shelter Security Freedom Aesthetic Spiritual Temporal scale Days Months Years Seasons Decades Lifetimes Forest regeneration times Timescale for climate chang impacts

17 ESPA Overall research framework Continuing Change: Population Demography Climate Environment Institutions Governance Technology Social &cultural values

18 How does the development of a conceptual framework support research in complex systems? It can support the specification of models & tools It can be a focus for interaction among members of the research team to build shared understanding. Understanding is not limited to scientific knowledge; history, cultural practices and other forms of knowledge are also important in clarifying and enriching shared understanding.

19 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF LAND USE CHANGE

20 Upper tributary watersheds provide habitat for in situ conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services valued at other levels. (Source: Lebel et al. 2008)

21 Developing a broad framework for different settings Rather than adopting a conceptual framework entirely off the shelf, a better approach is for each project to develop their own, and adjust for different situations such as scales or settings.

22 The MA at multiple scales - Southern Africa sub-global assessement The SafMA used the MA conceptual framework, and took into consideration three specific scales ranging from the local scale to the basin scale and finally to a region wide scale.

23 The MA in different cultural contexts - Peru sub-global assessment Local adaptation of the MA Conceptual Framework for the Peru sub-global assessment. Source: MA 2005b

24 Benefits of investing time in building the conceptual framework If it is derived from a process that truly involves multiple stakeholders it can provide legitimacy and usefulness. The conceptual framework is then both as a process and a product. A process to develop a conceptual framework is inherently political, involving balance and contention among different interests and concerns.

25 IPBES The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) was established to strengthen the science-policy interface for biodiversity and ecosystem services for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, long-term wellbeing and sustainable development

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27 Social-Ecological System (SES) 8 Visions of a good life Well-Being, Good living Living-well, Value and belief systems, Cosmovisions, Worlldviews Global Regional National Sub-national 1 Nature s benefits to people Ecosystem benefits, services and goods, Nature s favours, Nature s gifts 6 5 Global Nature Biodiversity, Ecosystems, Mother Earth Life-support systems Natural resources 4 2 Drivers of change Social Institutions, Organizations, Governance, Individual and collective actions and decisions Non-social Earthquakes, Volcanism, Nonanthropogenic climate patterns 7 Human assets Knowledge, Infrastructure, Technology, Financial wealth 3

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29 Novel features of the UK NEA 1. A focus on valuation: - Separating services from goods to avoid double-counting - Non-monetary and monetary valuation - Traceability of values back to ecosystem services 2. Valuation is relative (measured as change in value) not total value 3. Spatially explicit analysis across the UK 4. Biodiversity is not an ecosystem service

30 UK NEA Conceptual Framework

31 Defining ecosystem services In the ecosystem In society (with other capital inputs Ecosystem processes e.g. Nutrient cycling, water cycle, etc. Final ecosystem services e.g. Trees, carbon sequestration, wild species diversity Goods/Benefit s e.g. Timber, equable climate, nature appreciation, recreation,etc.

32 Solar & other physical inputs Other capital inputs Wellbeing Primary & intermediate ecosystem processes Final ecosystem services Goods Measures of value monetary other Weathering Primary production Decomposition Soil formation Nutrient cycling Water cycling Climate regulation Pollination Evolutionary processes Ecological interactions Crops, livestock,etc Fish, etc. Water availability Trees Peat Waste breakdown Detoxification Purified water Local climate Stabilising vegetation Natural enemies Meaningful places Wild species Food Timber Water quality Energy Equable climate Pollution control Flood control Disease control Nature watching Recreation Good health & MEA (2005) categories: Cultural Provisioning Regulating Supporting e.g. convert woodland to agriculture e.g. convert agriculture to woodland

33 Plausible Future Scenarios How might UK ecosystems and their services change under plausible scenarios? What would be the effect of such changes? National security World markets Local stewardship Go with the Flow Nature at work Green and pleasant land

34 Spatial Economic Implications of Two Storylines

35 Bateman et al Science 2013

36 Conclusions Don t expect to find a framework off-the-shelf. Discuss and develop the project, its purpose and focus. Then adapt as necessary to develop a framework fit for the project. Keep under review, refine as necessary. When developed, relevant models can be researched and tested for relevance When the hypotheses, data and models are agreed, tools can do some of the work for you

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