Ar-Raqqa Market Monitoring Trends Analysis

Transcription

1 Ar-Raqqa Market Monitoring Trends Analysis October - December 217 CONTEXT As of September 217, it was estimated that the Syrian conflict had led to the displacement of 12.6 million people, 6.1 million of whom are internally displaced persons (IDPs). 1 In Ar-Raqqa governorate in particular, the expulsion of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in October 217 marked a new phase in the humanitarian response. However, the humanitarian situation has remained fragile, as during the month of October alone, a total of 39,133 IDP departures were recorded from the IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative (ISMI) covered communities in Ar-Raqqa governorate. Since October, tens of thousands of IDPs have been expected to leave collective centers, informal settlements, camps, and host communities throughout Ar-Raqqa governorate to return to their communities of origin. Many communities are in need of post-conflict reconstruction with limited access to services and varying degrees of access to food and market functionality. Securing better access to markets and creating income-generating opportunities are critical components of the humanitarian response and will eventually become cornerstones of any early recovery effort. When supported by a robust understanding of market functionality, market-based approaches to humanitarian aid allow communities to prioritise their own needs, while continuing to support existing infrastructure and services. Markets, as an integral component of Syrian life, should therefore be considered in the context of any integrated multi-sector response. OVERVIEW To inform humanitarian actors cash and voucher programming, REACH and the (CBR TWG) conduct monthly monitoring of key markets throughout Syria to assess the availability and affordability of basic commodities (Market Monitoring Exercise). Monitored commodities reflect those that are typically available, sold in markets and consumed by an average Syrian household including food items, non-food items, fuel, water and smartphone data. Many are components of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB), detailed on page four, which represents the minimum culturally adjusted group of items required to support a six-person Syrian household for one month. Between October and December 217, a network of 13 non-governmental organisations involved in cashbased responses in Syria contributed data from 135 communities in 7 subdistricts spanning 1 governorates. This analysis uses price data collected in 2 communities in 7 subdistricts of Ar-Raqqa governorate to calculate typical food prices and SMEB component costs in the governorate in order to inform market-based programming. Typical price variations of assessed food items are aggregated and indexed, and any notable price changes over time are contextualised in reference to observed national-level price trends in Syria over the past year. Additionally, an analysis of the main food, non-food, and fuel components of the SMEB are analysed in 6 communities across 6 subdistricts in Ar-Raqqa, providing an indication of typical SMEB price variation and a comparison to other regions in Syria. Finally, exchange rates dynamics over the past year are summarised, placing the sharp decline of the USD/SYP rate observed in November in context to broader trends observed in 217. Situation overviews and data sets from all months of the Market Monitoring Exercise are available on the REACH Resource Centre and are distributed to the broader humanitarian community. For additional details on methodology, please consult the appendix at the end of this document. KEY FINDINGS During the observation period, food prices and month-to-month food price changes observed in Ar-Raqqa were comparable to those of other communities in northern Syria. Prices remained largely unchanged for all but six assessed food items, which fluctuated in line with dynamics observed across northern Syria in the same period. Using the food, non-food item, and fuel components of the SMEB as a proxy for household expenditure, a notable decline in prices was observed in Al Thawrah, which was attributed to the improving security situation between October and December 217. Overall, SMEB component costs in Ar- Raqqa communities were similar to those ASSESSED AREAS ALEPPO Jurneyyeh J U R N E Y Y E H Ein Al-Arus Tell Abiad TURKEY Aljern Alaswad T E L L A B I A D Sokkariyeh Suluk Kherbet Elroz Amin E I N I S S A Hammam At-Turkman Ein Issa Hisheh S U L U K Mahmudli Al-Thawrah A L - T H A W R A H M A N S U R A Tal Elsamen Dahham Tishrine Kalta A R - R A Q Q A Rashid Hazimeh Mansura of northern Syria, with food slightly cheaper in the northwest and manually refined kerosene cheaper in Ar-Raqqa in the last quarter of 217. The sharp drop in the USD/SYP exchange rate observed at the end of November across Syria was temporary and attributed to changes in Syrian central bank policy. After the rate plummeted in November, it returned to pre- November levels in early January. The cost of a SMEB in USD increased at the end of 217 even as the cost in SYP declined in the same period due to the decline in the USD/SYP exchange rate through most of 217. If this trend continues in 218, SMEB costs in USD will continue to rise even if costs in SYP remain stagnant. AR-RAQQA Kisret Elsheikh Jomaa S A B K A K A R A M A M A A D A N AL-HASAKEH DEIR-EZ-ZOR HAMA Community Covered Highway HOMS Major Road Subdistrict

2 Food Prices PRICE OVERVIEW Food price trends in Ar-Raqqa were similar to those observed across northern Syria at the close of 217. For over half of the assessed food items, prices did not notably change between October and December 217. For the six items where there were observed price changes, they were primarily locally-produced goods such as vegetables and poultry products. However, it is important to note that while the average median cheapest price did not change over the three months, typical variation in prices differed by item. For example, while the price distribution of bulgur was fairly narrow, with an interquartile range only varying by approximately +/- 15 SYP around a median value of 235 SYP/kg, cooking oil was much more varied, with prices in the interquartile range varying by over 5 SYP around a median value of 5 SYP/L. FOOD PRICE COMPARISON: Ar-Raqqa and North Syria Food Item* Location Median (SYP) Interquartile Range (SYP) Bread (per 8 pieces) Bulgur Cooking oil Cucumbers Ghee Onions Rice Salt (per 5g) Tea (per 1g) Tomato paste Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria *All items reported per kilogram unless otherwise specified. Items with notable monthly price variations are presented on next page. Ar-Raqqa Food Price Variation: Items with Notable Price Variation over Time* Visualisation uses data from December 217 Potatoes Tomatoes Sugar Red Lentils Eggs (1 eggs) Chicken Price (SYP) Ar-Raqqa Food Price Variation: Items with No Price Variation over Time* Visualisation uses data from October - December 217 Salt (5g) Bread Onions Bulgur Cucumbers Tea (1g) Tomato Paste Rice Cooking oil Ghee Price (SYP) Interquartile Range 2

3 Food Prices (continued) TRENDS OVER TIME Notable price trends were observed from six food in Ar-Raqqa governorate towards the close of 217: red lentils, chicken, eggs, potatoes, tomatoes, and sugar. These price trends are not unique to Ar-Raqqa, but in line with those observed throughout Syria. Furthermore, these trends are all relatively minor in comparison with the price variation that was observed over the past year, and were almost all smaller than the price variation of the interquartile range of observed values. PROTEIN ITEMS The price of eggs, chicken and red lentils in Ar-Raqqa saw slight decreases comparable to trends in other communities in northern Syria. This was part of a general decline in the prices of these items observed across Syria during 217. Between December 216 and 217, the median reported cheapest price of chicken fell from 925 SYP/kg to 75 SYP/kg. The price of eggs and lentils fell from 15 SYP/kg to 162 SYP/kg and 5 SYP/kg to 35 SYP/kg in the same period. In the last three months of the year, the median cheapest price of lentils remained stable, eggs decreased 1 SYP/kg, and chicken decreased 5 SYP/kg. VEGETABLES The median cheapest price of potatoes and tomatoes also did not deviate from trends observed in northern Syria. The price of vegetable items fluctuated seasonally across Syria in 217, with the prices of most items rising to a peak around April 217, and then declining to around 1-2 SYP/kg by July. Since September, the prices of tomatoes and cucumbers have risen, while potatoes and onions remained near July 217 prices. SUGAR Sugar prices decreased by nearly 5 SYP/kg between October and December in line with a 1 SYP/kg decline across Syria in 217. This may be part of the decline in world sugar prices observed in MEDIAN FOOD PRICE CHANGE (SYP) Food Item* Location October November December Chicken Eggs Red Lentils Potatoes Tomatoes Sugar *All items reported per kilogram unless otherwise specified. Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria Ar-Raqqa North Syria WoS Food Price Variation in 217 : Protein Items* SYP 1 5 March June September December Chicken Eggs Lentils WoS Food Price Variation in 217 : Vegetables* SYP March June September December Cucumbers Onions Potatoes Tomatoes Note: Trend lines are the median cheapest price across all assessed markets in Syria, with the grey band visualising the interquartile range of prices recorded for that item that month. Visualisations of monthly trends in this overview do not account for monthly variations in coverage. 3

4 Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) SMEB ANALYSIS OVERVIEW In Tell Abiad, Suluk, Amin, Tishrine, Al-Thawrah and Jurneyyeh communities, data collection in the last quarter of 217 was consistent and complete enough to analyse and compare trends for individual SMEB component costs. While the coverage of water and telecom data prices was not consistent over time and so was not included in this analysis, these two items typically comprise around 6% of a complete SMEB cost. 3 Data collection of all individual components in the food, non-food items, and fuel categories were complete for all three months in all these communities except Tishrine, which did not report fuel data in October. Total of SMEB Food, Non-Food Item, and Fuel COMPONENT COSTS in SYP Communities Regions Jurneyyeh Suluk Amin Al-Thawrah Tishrine Tell Abiad Ar-Raqqa North Syria 4 October November December SMEB Comparison Northern Syria Median SMEB component costs did not significantly vary over time. The median costs of the food, non-food, and fuel SMEB components in Ar-Raqqa track closely with the rest of northern Syria, never varying by more than 6% from each other during the observation period. The largest observed trends in the six communities were the drop of Al-Thawrah from most expensive community to average between October and December 217, and the increase in the cost of the food component of the SMEB in Jurneyyeh and Tishrine between October and November. The change in Al-Thawrah is attributable to two factors, the decline in the price of red lentils from 6 SYP/kg to 325 SYP/kg, which represents a notable proportion of the costs of the food component of the SMEB, and a decline in the price of manually refined kerosene in the community from 3 SYP/L to 18 SYP/L. Local staff suggest these price declines in Al-Thawrah may be due to the improving security situation over this period. In Jurneyyeh and Tishrine, increases in the price of bread and eggs caused most of the price increase observed between October and November. The price of eggs reportedly increased from approximately 6 SYP/kg to around 11 SYP/kg in both communities between October and November, and the price of bread increased from 1 to 15 SYP/8 pieces in Tishrine, and from 1 to 12 SYP/8 pieces in Jurneyyeh. The reasons for these changes may be attributed to improvements to the security situation, although this is unconfirmed. Overall, SMEB costs appear similar between these six communities in Ar-Raqqa and the rest of northern Syria. Kerosene costs are cheaper in Ar-Raqqa than in the northwest, as fuel prices across northeastern Syria have been cheaper than in the northwest and south throughout 217. While individual communities may have unique local security contexts that affect market access, the larger communities in Ar- Raqqa reported overall SMEB costs similar to those observed in the rest of northern Syria. SMEB CONTENTS Item Quantity Food Bread 37 kg Items Bulgur 15 kg Chicken 6 kg Eggs 6 kg Fresh vegetables 12 kg Ghee/vegetable oil 7 kg/l Red lentils 15 kg Rice 19 kg Salt 1 kg Sugar 5 kg Tomato paste 6 kg Non-Food Bathing soap 12 bars Items Laundry/dish soap 3 kg Sanitary pads 4 packs of 1 Toothpaste 2 g Fuel Cooking fuel* 25 L Water Water 45 L Telecom Smartphone data 1 GB Other Float (other costs)** 7.5% total value * Kerosene in northern Syria; LPG in southern Syria. ** Float was excluded from SMEB calculations due to the commonality of incomplete baskets. SYP (in thousands) October November December Communities Al Thawrah Amin Jurneyyeh Suluk SYP (in thousands) SMEB Component Costs: October-December 217 Median SMEB component costs: October-December SMEB Components Tell Abiad Tishrine Al Hasakah Ar Raqqa Water Cooking Fuel Food SMEB components Northwest Cell Data Non Food Items Note: Costs calculated by taking the median community-level cost of each SMEB component across the region for the last three months of 217. Water data is excluded from Ar-Raqqa due to the small number of observations in this period. Food Fuel + NFI 4

5 Exchange Rate WoS Exchange Rate Change Over Time, January - December 217 USD/SYP Exchange Rate EXCHANGE RATE EFFECT ON PRICE LEVELS SMEB costs in SYP have remained fairly stagnant or even declined somewhat in the last quarter of 217 in Ar-Raqqa. However, the decline in the USD/SYP exchange rate has led to overall increases in the cost of the SMEB in USD. The following graph shows a pair of price indices which visualise relative changes in the median WoS complete subdistrict SMEB cost from February, when the latest version of the SMEB was finalized. Changes in SMEB cost are presented as a fraction of the initial observed cost. Therefore, a value of 1. indicates no difference from February 217, a value of.95 indicates a 5% decrease, and so forth. Overall the USD and SYP price indices remained comparable until September 217, when the cumulative effect of several months of the declining USD/SYP exchange rate became pronounced. Since then, while the price of a complete SMEB has continued to decline in SYP, the declining USD/SYP exchange rate has caused the price of a complete SMEB in USD to increase. Notably, the large spike in the USD price index in December is attributable to the sudden and temporary drop of the USD/SYP exchange rate in November, which as of January has returned to pre-shock levels. However, the broader divergence between the price indices is due to the continuous decline of the USD/SYP exchange rate for most of 217. If this trend continues, USD-denominated SMEB costs will continue to rise unless the decrease in the general price level exceeds the rate of depreciation of USD. March June September December Note: Trend lines are the median reported exchange rate across all assessed markets in Syria, with the grey band visualising the interquartile range of exchange rate values recorded that month. Visualisations of monthly trends in this overview do not account for monthly variations in coverage. EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS The USD/SYP informal exchange rate in Ar-Raqqa governorate did not notably differ from the rest of Syria. As can be observed from data gathered from the Market Monitoring project visualised above, the Syrian Pound has been strengthening for most of 217, with the USD/SYP exchange rate declining by 8 SYP between April and October. However, as documented by the informal exchange rate tracker Syrian Pound Today and confirmed by local staff, the rate dropped by over 5 SYP between 11 and 3 November to a floor of 41 SYP on the dollar. 5 This shock appears to have been temporary, as by January the rate had returned to pre-november levels. 5 The Market Monitoring project will be able to confirm these findings in the next monthly situation overview. The drop in November was attributed to changes in Syrian central bank policy in an attempt to reign in informal exchange rates and strengthen the SYP: this included limiting individuals to one foreign exchange purchase per month, a 5[USD] cap on foreign currency transfers, and a mandatory threemonth waiting period before transfers could be accessed. 6 Local humanitarian staff noted this was coincident with a shortage of SYP at [informal] exchange rate offices. WoS SMEB Price Index Comparison: February-December 217 SMEB price index relative to Feb April July October Currency SYP USD 5

6 Appendix WHAT IS THE CASH-BASED RESPONSES TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP? The Technical Working Group (CBR TWG) was established in March 214 to analyse the impact of the ongoing conflict on markets in Syria and guide the implementation of humanitarian cash and voucher programmes within those markets. REACH and the CBR TWG have been partners on the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise since early 215. Since February 217, the exercise expanded coverage into the south, bringing monthly market assessments to communities in Damascus, Rural Damascus, Dar a and Quneitra governorates. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON METHODOLOGY To be included in the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise, markets must be permanent in nature, large enough to support at least two wholesalers, and diverse enough to provide a sufficient variety of goods and commodities. The shops surveyed within each market must be housed in permanent structures and must sell certain items to be eligible for inclusion. Participating organisations train their enumerators on the Market Monitoring methodology and data collection tools using standard training materials developed by REACH. Each enumerator aims to assess three to five shops of each type in the main market in their assigned subdistrict, using surveys to collect information about prices, current product inventory and the time needed to replace current stocks. In subdistricts where direct surveying by enumerators is not possible, such as Lattakia and Deir-ez-Zor, data collection is conducted remotely through key informants such as shop owners, suppliers and consumers. Five survey forms are deployed on KoBo each month to capture price and stock information from different types of establishments, including grocery stores, fuel traders, currency exchange shops, water trucking services and mobile phone shops, among others. Nearly all participating partners submit their data to these KoBo forms, using the KoBoCollect Android app to upload data. A small number of partners, by prior permission, collect data using fully harmonised data collection tools deployed on other platforms, then submit their raw data to REACH for standardisation, compilation and cleaning. Following data collection, REACH compiles and cleans all partners data, normalising prices and cross-checking outliers. The cleaned data is then analysed by commodity and by subdistrict. Prices are divided into quartiles and boxplots are created to help CBR TWG members understand the distribution of prices. To illustrate local variations in prices and availability, REACH uses the collected data to map the price of an SMEB in each subdistrict. The cleaned data sets are available on the REACH Resource Centre and are distributed to all participating partners, as well as to interested clusters and the broader humanitarian community. CALCULATION OF MEDIAN CHEAPEST PRICE This figure is calculated by taking the median of the minimum-reported prices of a region s sub-districts. In turn, the minimum-reported prices for each subdistrict was taken from the median of the minimumreported prices of the constituent shops assessed. CALCULATION OF SURVIVAL MINIMUM EXPENDITURE BASKET (SMEB) COSTS The cost of a SMEB is calculated for each assessed subdistrict by calculating the median cheapest price of each SMEB commodity in that subdistrict, then multiplying these medians by the number of units that an average Syrian household requires to purchase in a month. The composition of the SMEB can be found on page four. REFERENCES 1 OCHA, December Humanitarian Needs Overview: Syrian Arab Republic. (Page 11). Retrieved from: downloads/full.pdf 2 Wernau, J. (217, December 8). Sugar Selloff Extends Into Fourth Session. Fox Business. Retrieved from 3 Water and cell phone data comprised a median 5.7% of the complete SMEB baskets in the 36 communities across northern Syria (excluding Ar-Raqqa governorate) between October and December 217. All of these communities were in Idleb, Aleppo and Hama, and only Menbik and Abu Qalqal communities were in northeastern Syria. Due to the lack of water trucking in Al Hasakeh, no communities with complete SMEBs were recorded in that period. Interestingly, the percentage was remarkably stable, not significantly changing when expanding to all communities with complete SMEB baskets across Syria over the past year. 4 Includes communities with complete SMEBs in northern Syria outside of Ar-Raqqa. Due to the lack of water data no complete SMEBs were observed in communities in Al-Hasakeh and the remaining communities were almost all in the northwest. 5 Syrian Pound Today reports SYP/USD exchange rates from Aleppo and Damacus city. Retrieved from: 6 Alhamwi, M. K. (217, December 11). Eyes on Damascus: Exchange Rates, Financial Restrictions and Subsidized Fuel. Syria Deeply. Retrieved from: articles/217/12/11/eyes-on-damascus-exchangerates-financial-restrictions-and-subsidized-fuel ABOUT REACH INITIATIVE REACH is a joint initiative of two international non-governmental organizations ACTED and IMPACT Initiatives and the UN Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT). REACH facilitates the development of information tools and products that enhance the capacity of aid actors to make evidence-based decisions in emergency, recovery and development contexts. By doing so, REACH contributes to ensuring that communities affected by emergencies receive the support they need. All REACH activities are conducted in support to and within the framework of inter-agency aid coordination mechanisms. For more information, please visit our website at www. reach-initiative.org, contact us directly at geneva@ reach-initiative.org or follow us on Twitter REACH_info. 6