Transforming smallholder agriculture in Africa:

Transcription

1 Transforming smallholder agriculture in Africa: a composite indicator to inform policy and guide responsible investment Presentation for: EU/EC conference on European Agribusiness in Africa: Opportunities and Challenges Charlemagne, Bruxelles, 10 April 2013 Presented by: Thomas Elhaut Director, Statistics and Studies for Development Division, IFAD

2 Global challenges for agriculture Source: FAO Food security Feeding 900 million hungry people today Increase food production by 60% by 2050 and/or Reduce the 40 60% food losses and waste Uncertainty and risks Natural resource scarcity Climate change Market volatility Source: Maximo Torrero

3 Tonnes per hectare Opportunities 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Source: FAO Current yield, av. Potential yield Maize Rice Millet Sorghum Source: Steve Wiggins Incentive framework Increased demand (food, feed, fuel trade-offs) Structurally higher real food prices (assuming efficient and symmetric price transmission) Resource base Available land resources (200 million ha) Available water resource (only 6% irrigated) Yield growth potential (only 20% of yield potential) Human capital 33 million small farms, with declining farm size mainly women, producing 70% of the food young and better trained farmers

4 Global sector context transformations Least developed countries (LDCs) have become major net importers of agricultural products Source: FAO 1. Globalisation Trade (bilateral & regional agreements) Governance 2. Urban-rural 3. Rural factor markets transformations 4. Food markets/systems revolutions Value chains Supermarkets 5. Private sector step-up 6. Farm size and agricultural technology 7. Consumer (effective) demand Diet change Fair trade, organic, carbon footprint,

5 What will it take? A. agricultural transformations 2 - Modernised farmers: diversified, specialised Transformation path 3 Commercial farmers: competitive, high value commodities, national and world markets 1- Subsistence farmers: Surpluses of low value commodities, local markets

6 Average annual investment in agriculture or most recent year (millions of USD) On-farm investment in agricultural capital Government spending Public spending to agricultural R&D Official Development Assistance (ODA) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) SS Africa 19,038 1, , South Asia 36,726 4, MENA 12,864 3, LAC 26,483 2,910 1, ,225 Europe & Central Asia 21,791 4, East Asia and the Pacific 51,675 20,607 1, ,677 Source: Lowder S, Carisma B and Skoet J (2012), pg 19

7 smallholder risk-webs natural risks, climate change background market, institutional, policy failure public health risks policy biases, lack of voice political risks, conflict inequality spatial risks market risks

8 What will it take? B. enabling policy, responsible investment Productivity Resilience Agrarian structure Enabling institutions and policies Current structure: size distribution of farms inclusiveness of (high-value) value chains Enabling institutions IFAD s RIPA/PBAS score: Access to land depth and breadth of land market Access to water Access to services (farmer choice): BBA Farmer organisations (farmer voice): farmer interests (IPR) Gender equality Responsible agricultural investment: RAI Instruments to manage policy or market failure Fiscal allocation to agriculture (Maputo declaration) Resilience Productivity: Factor productivity Farm profitability

9 Principles for responsible agricultural investment Existing rights are recognised and respected Investments strengthen food security Transparent processes and accountability Broad-based consultations enforced Investments respect rule of law and reflect industry best practice and durable shared values Investments generate desirable social and distributional impacts and do not increase vulnerability Environmental impacts quantified and negative impacts mitigated; and sustainable resource use encouraged source: RAI Knowledge Exchange Platform

10 Structural factors Experience Forward-Looking Resilience framework R= f (structure, experience, self-perceived risk, exante preparedness, forward-looking coping capacity) Community characteristics : Location Settlement pattern Transportation route Electricity, Source of Water Supply, Source of Drinking water Infrastructure Human capital Economic activities Effects of climate change related incidents Experience of climatic events at village level Sources of climaterelated knowledge Self-perception of climate hazards and impacts 1) likelihood 2) Rating about coping capacity 3) Community ex-ante preparation plans 4) Barriers to adoption of adaptation strategies 5) Settlement patterns, development plans, economic outlook & life the next 20 years Source: Alessandra Garbero, IFAD

11 What will it take? C. Data at the farm level (household) Source: AMIS, FAO Sector-level Purpose To inform policy and guide investment On agricultural sector transformation: whole sector Global Approach Non-dogmatic, relevant for specific transformation context Harmonisation and integration (LSMS, CAADP, ) Innovation (WAW) Cost-effective and timely: predictive power of 70% Open data (visualisation) Global statistical system: Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics Methodology Capacity building Actual data generation Smart instruments Composite indicator, matrices Sector scorecards Programme-level Rigorous impact evaluations: what works, where, how, why?

12 Thank you for the attention.