A menu of solutions for a sustainable Food Future

Transcription

1 A menu of solutions for a sustainable Food Future Janet Ranganathan, Vice-President Science and Research Photo Source: Neil Palmer (CIAT)

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3 HOW CAN THE WORLD FEED NEARLY 10 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050 IN A MANNER THAT ADVANCES DEVELOPMENT AND WELL-BEING WHILE REDUCING PRESSURE ON THE ENVIRONMENT?

4 1. The world needs to close a food gap 56% required increase in calories to feed 9.8 billion people by Source: WRI analysis based on FAO (2017a), UNDESA (2017), Bruinsma (2009), and Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).

5 2. The world needs agriculture to support economic development Source: World Bank World Development Indicators. Accessible at: < (accessed December 13, 2012).

6 3. The world needs to reduce agriculture s impact on the environment Share of global impact (percent in 2010) GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS EARTH S LANDMASS (EX-ANTARCTICA) WATER WITHDRAWAL % = 49 Gt CO 2 e 100% = 13.3 bn ha 100% = 3862 km 3 H 2 O Source: WRI analysis based on IEA (2012); EIA (2012); EPA (2012); Houghton (2008); FAO (2011); FAO (2012); Foley et al. (2005).

7 One way to (unsustainably) feed the planet...

8 A menu of solutions can sustainably close the food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion) Illustrative Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma (2009) and Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012). Note: Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels.

9 Menu for a sustainable food future Production Consumption Sustainably increase crop yields Boost yields through crop breeding Improve soil and water management Expand onto degraded lands Sustainably increase livestock productivity Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands Stabilize wild fish catch Increase productivity of aquaculture Reduce food loss and waste Help achieve replacement level fertility Reduce biofuel demand for food crops Shift diets

10 Menu item: Shift diets Photo Source: Ace Diets.

11 Beef, in particular, is more resource-intensive than plantbased foods Sources: GlobAgri-WRR model (land use and greenhouse gas emissions), authors calculations from Mekonnen and Hoekstra (2011, 2012) (freshwater consumption) and Waite et al. (2014) (farmed fish freshwater consumption, which is shown as rainfall and irrigation combined). Notes: Data presented are global means. Protein amounts refer to human consumption. Based on the approach taken by the European Union for estimating emissions from land use change for biofuels, land use change impacts are distributed evenly over an amortization period of 20 years. Per ton protein consumed Land use (ha) Pasture Cropland Freshwater consumption (1,000 m 3 ) Rainfall Irrigation GHG emissions (t CO 2 e) Land-use change Agricultural production

12 Most previous efforts to shift diets have focused on information, education, and abstinence with limited impact Education Information Abstinence

13 We analysed 20+ successful consumption shifts Free Range Eggs Laundry Detergent Compaction Butter Alternatives Fish Fingers Low Alcohol Beer CFL & LED Light bulbs Milk Alternatives Coffee Eco-Refills Meat Alternatives Shark Fin Soup in China Organ meat in WWII America

14 which identified four strategies for driving shifts Shift Consumption

15 Shift Consumption

16 The Shift Wheel framework Make socially desirable Inform about the issue Replicate the experience Disguise the change Make socially unacceptable Be more memorable Shift Consumption Form habits in new markets Meet current key needs Constrain display Enhance display Enhance affordability Deliver new compelling benefit

17 Case Fish study: Fingers Low alcohol beer Change Move consumers from drinking high to low alcohol beverages Barrier Actions Limited interest in low alcohol benefit Taste of low alcohol beer poor Located in low traffic low-alcohol section Limited secondary display due to lack of promo s Lack of incentive to invest due to poor profitability Masked taste with inclusions (lime etc.) Positioned around benefit of refreshment no mention of ABV Government reduced duty on low alcohol beer. Re-invested in promotions to get display & drive trial Worked with retailer to move to the main shelf

18 Low alcohol Alcohol beer Beer

19 19 Be more memorable

20 Case Fish study: Fingers Fish Fingers/Sticks Change Move consumers from Cod to Pollock based fish fingers (sticks) Barrier Fish fingers strongly correlated with Cod Pollock assumed to not taste as good as Cod Pollock looks grey vs. white Actions Positioned around new health benefit of OMEGA 3 Margin towards promotions to drive trial and display Margin towards shelf space from retailers

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22 To test the Shift Wheel in the food services sector we launched The Better Buying Lab brings together the brightest and best minds from consumer research, behavioral economics and marketing - along with companies in the food industry - to research, test and scale new approaches that promotes consumers to choose, and businesses to sell, more plant-based foods.

23 Members

24 Collaborators

25 What we do 1. Identify Interventions - Gather collective learnings - Understand barriers/triggers for shifts - Understand key tactics for influencing choices in food service - Select biggest shift opportunities 4. Share Learning & Scale - Share results of success and failure - Develop case studies - Share learning beyond group - Select projects to scale together 2. Generate Ideas - Apply Shift Wheel - Innovate: facilitate workshops, online ideas, open-sourcing, hackathons - Select most promising ideas 3. Pilot Ideas - Implement ideas at one or more sites - Concept test marketing ideas - Quantify results

26 We are currently focused on 3 research/ innovation areas 1. Transform how the food industry communicates about plantbased foods 2. Popularize dishes rich in plants 3. Identify the right environmental targets and metrics

27 Language and framing: LSE research Source: Bacon and Krpan (2018).

28 Language and framing: Stanford research Source: Turnwald et al. (2017).

29 Language and framing: Stanford research Labeling vegetables indulgently resulted in 25% more people selecting the vegetable than in the basic condition, 41% more people than in the healthy restrictive condition and 35% more people than in the healthy positive condition. Source: Turnwald et al. (2017).

30 Power Dishes Source: Technomic Research. Rank Dish Menu Penetration 1 Chicken Sandwich/Wrap 56.0% 2 Chicken Salad 42.4% 3 Salmon 42.1% 4 Caesar Salad 38.6% 5 Shrimp 32.3% 6 Specialty Burgers 31.1% 7 Cheeseburger 30.3% 8 Specialty Salad 27.6% 9 Turkey Sandwich/Wrap 27.5% 10 Taco/Taquito 24.7% 11 Bacon Cheeseburger 24.7% 12 Chicken Strips/Nuggets 24.7% 13 Veggie Sandwich/Wrap 24.3% 14 Cobb Salad 23.9% 15 Grilled Chicken 23.5% 16 Fish Sandwich/Wrap 22.9% 17 Rib-eye Steak 22.2% 18 Filet/Filet Mignon 22.1% 19 Hamburger 21.6% 20 Seafood Salad 21.4% 21 Roast Beef Sandwich/Wrap 21.3% 22 Other Chicken Dish 20.6% 23 Mixed Protein Sandwich 20.0% 24 Strip Steak 20.0% 25 Club 19.2%

31 Power Dishes Blended Burger Veggie Bowl Avocado Club

32 Power Dish #1: Blended Burger Taste Health Profit? Source: WRI/Better Buying Lab (2018).

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