Food Security Cluster Post Deyr 2012/13 Results

Transcription

1 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security Cluster Post Deyr 212/13 Results March 14th, 213 Technical Partner Donors EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

2 CLIMATE FORECAST Hotter than Normal Dry Season (JFM) and Normal to Below Normal Long Rains (MAM) 1. Hotter than normal dry season expected across the region and especially the northern and eastern sector (+1 o to +2 o C) Northern Kenya, South Somalia, central and western Ethiopia. 2. Long rains season (Mar May), raises concerns for normal to below rainfall performance over the eastern sector of the region, including parts of northeastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia. ECMWF s forecast surface temp anomalies (mm): Jan- Mar. 213 ECMWF forecast rainfall anomalies (mm): Mar - May 213

3 MARKETS Consumer Price Index Slight decline in CPI rates (7%) in SoSh regions. The CPI is stable in northwestern parts of the country. Significant decrease (24%) in annual inflation rates in the SoSh areas; Factors driving down the cost of living in South-Central: o Reduced local cereal (red sorghum) prices o Reduced/stable prices of imported food

4 LIVESTOCK Trends in Local Cattle Prices Regional Average Monthly Prices Cattle (SoSh/SlSh)

5 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, LIVESTOCK Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in the South (SOSH) Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in Northern and Central Regions Dec-8 Price per Head of Goat (SOSH) Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, SorghumBelt Shabelle Valley Juba Valley 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Dec-8 Price per Head of Goat (SOSH) Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Price per Head of Goat (SLSH) NE Central NW (SLSH)

6 AGRICULTURE Trends in Cereal Production (South and Northwest) Deyr Cereal Production Trends in Southern Somalia MT MT MT 2, 15, 1, 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg Annual Cereal Production Trends in Southern Somalia , 6, 4, 2, Deyr Gu Overall PWA 5 year Avrg Cereal Production Trends in Northwest Maize Sorghum Pet Average South: Third highest Deyr cereal production since 1995(144% of Deyr avg for ); sorghum and maize production of about 143,MT Red sorghum represents over two thirds of the total production Northwest AP: Good Gu/Karan (73,MT) production of cereals (14% of PET Avg: ); White sorghum accounts for 88% of the total cereal production

7 AGRICULTURE Regional Trends in Cereal Prices and Agriculture Daily Rate 3, 27, 24, 21, 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, Price per Kg (SoSH) Trends in White Maize Prices [Shabelle & Juba Riverine] Juba Valley(White Maize 1 kg) Shabelle Valley(White Maize 1 kg) Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Month Price per Kg (SoSH) 3, 27, 24, 21, 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, Trends in White Sorghum Prices [North West] NE (Red Sorghum 1 kg) NW (White Sorghum 1 kg) F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F Month Central(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Price per Kg (SLSH) 3, 27, 24, 21, 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, Price per Kg (SoSH) Trends in Red Sorghum Price [Sorghum Belt] Hiran (White Sorghum 1 kg) Bay(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Gedo(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Bakool(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Nov-7 May-8 Nov-8 May-9 Nov-9 May-1 Month Nov-1 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12

8 NUTRITION SECTOR Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 213 GAM Rates: Improvements from Very Critical levels from July to December 212 among pastoralists of W. Golis/Guban (Critical) and Nugal Valley (Serious), and agropastoralists of Bay (Critical). Deterioration in Mataban (Hiran) to Very Critical. SAM Rates: Improvements to, or sustained Acceptable levels (<2.5%) except in Hawd (NW), Addun (Central) Alert (3. 3.1), N. Gedo agro pastoralists (3.8), Serious, Beletweyne (4.9), Critical, and Mataban (7.4), Very Critical. IDPs in Dolo (5.4), Dobley (5.1), Berbera (6.6) and Qardho (7.9) in Critical Very Critical levels. Death rates: Crude (per 1, per day) are below emergency level of 2 across Somalia; U5 (per 1, per day) are below emergency level of 4 across Somalia.

9 NUTRITION SECTOR Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 212 & January 213, and outlook, February April 213 August 212 January 213 February April 213 Outlook The nutrition situation is likely to remain the same across the country in the coming three months except for: Sool Plateau: could deteriorate to Serious phase, consistent with worrying food security situation. and seasonal levels Bakool, Hiran region, North Gedo regions are likely to be in Critical phase consistent with seasonal levels Shabelle region are likely to be within median levels, in Serious phase *Current situation estimates inferred from Oct Dec 212 nutrition assessments findings; Nutrition situation outlook, Feb Apr 213 inferred from current estimates/median seasonal rates (21 211), alongside with historical disease patterns and food security trends for February April 213 period)

10 RURAL LIVELIHOODS Improved milk availability among most pastoral households for consumption and sales Significantly improved Terms of Trade between local quality goat and cereals due to low cereal prices and exceptionally high goat prices; Increased livestock holding among the poor in most livelihoods BUT still below the baseline levels. In most pastoral areas in the North poor households can meet food needs although some have small livelihood protection deficit, i.e. cannot meet all basic needs Food access is limited in Guban and parts of Coastal Deeh of North and Central due to successive poor rains leading to: o Below average to poor livestock condition o Limited livestock asset holding Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Rice to Goat Kg per Head Central (Red Rice) NE(Red Rice) NW (Red Rice) Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat Kg per Head SorghumBelt (Red Sorghum) Shabelle Valley(White Maize) Juba Valley (White Maize) Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12

11 RURAL LIVELIHOODS Purchasing Power Crop dependent poor households in the agropastoral areas of Lower Juba have about 1 2 months supply of cereal stock; 5 6 months in L. Shabelle and Bay; while the rest 3 4 months; Labour wages of the farming communities increased in December 212 compared to July 212 and year ago (Dec 11) in most of southern agricultural areas; ToT daily labour wage/cereal is favorable and higher than in July 212 and the 5 years average (27 211) Kg per Daily Labour Wage Kg per Daily Labour Wage Sorghum Belt-Trends in TOT Labour to Cereal Bardera (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Baidoa ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Huddur ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Beletweyne (White Sorghum 1kg) Dec 8 Mar 9 Jun 9 Sep 9 Dec 9 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1 Dec 1 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Month Shabelle & Juba Riverine TOT Labour to Cereal Jamame (White Maize 1kg) Jilib (White Maize 1kg) Qorioley (White Maize 1kg) Jowhar (White Maize 1kg) Dec 8 Mar 9 Jun 9 Sep 9 Dec 9 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1 Dec 1 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Month

12 URBAN LIVELIHOODS Food Consumption Food Consumption Score (FCS): Improving food consumption trend in the North and Banadir (less 2% of people with poor FCS) since Gu 212; Coping strategy index (CSI): Stable to decreasing from Gu 212 in most regions but increased slightly in Banadir; o Out of the 1% of households adopting severe coping strategies WDH form the majority Livelihood change: increased productive assets from last Gu; no asset sales reported across the country; people are mostly employing insurance coping strategies 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % North & Banaadir: Food Consumption acceptable borderline poor

13 Internally Displaced Persons in Settlements (IDP) Food Security Outcomes High proportion of IDPs (34 58% in NW and 44 74% in the NE) have poor food consumption; Low asset diversity among the IDPs; mostly one asset type per household: either a wheelbarrow or a mobile phone or a radio or skilled work tools High food expenditure among the IDPs with limited ability to meet non food expenditures (78 8% of expenditure) % of households 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % North & Banaadir: Poor Food Consumption Critical nutritionsituationinmostidp settlements assessed except Hargeisa, Garowe, Baidoa (Serious)

14 Current Food Security Phase Classifications Summary Results

15 IPC CLASSIFICATION Progression of the Food Security Situation Aug 212 Jun 213 IPC Map, Aug Dec 212 IPC Map, Feb 1st 213 IPC Map, Feb Jun 213

16 IPC CLASSIFICATION Rural, Urban & IDP Population in Crisis (Projected) Region UNDP 25 Total Population UNDP 25 Urban Population UNDP 25 Rural Population Urban in Stressed Rural in Stressed Urban in Crisis Rural in Crisis Urban in Emergency Rural in Emergency Total in Crisis and Emergency as % of Total population North Awdal 35,455 11, ,513 7, 45, 12, 4 Woqooyi Galbeed 7,345 49,432 29,913 22, 48, 32, 4, 5 Togdheer 42, ,42 278,893 22, 75, 1, Sanaag 27,367 56,79 214,288 13, 65, 5, 7, 7, 7 Sool 15,277 39, ,143 5, 37, 6, 4 Bari 367, , ,5 16, 56, 14, 4 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 9,592 6, 25, 3, 2, 1, 4 Sub-total 2,341,718 1,54,371 1,287,347 91, 351, 54, 32, 8, 4 Central Mudug 35,99 94,45 255,694 13, 63, 2, 11, 24, 11 Galgaduud 33,57 58, ,8 22, 67, 13, 25, 12 Sub-total 68, , ,774 35, 13, 2, 24, 49, 11 South Hiraan 329,811 69,113 26,698 28, 89, 12, 4, 5 Shabelle Dhexe 514,91 95, ,7 3, 117, 5, 46, 1 (Middle) Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 85, , ,937 35, 212, 35, 21, 7 Bakool 31,627 61, ,189 12, 86, 12, 22, 11 Bay 62, , ,749 37, 146, 31, 5 Gedo 328,378 81,32 247,76 24, 84, Juba Dhexe 238,877 54, ,138 12, 57, 12, 9, 9 (Middle) Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,79 124, ,18 22, 69, 22, 2, 11 Sub-total 3,579, ,632 2,792,965 2, 86, 81, 12, 5, 7 Banadir 91,183 91,183-15, - 15, Grand Total 7,52,654 2,895,568 4,67,86 341, 1,341, 152, 176, 17, 6 Assessed and Contingency Population in Crisis and Emergency Number affected % of Total population Distribution of populations in crisis Assessed Urban population in Crisis and Emergency 152, 2 14% Assessed Rural population in Crisis and Emergency 283, 4 27% IDP in settlements* (out of UNHCR 1.1million) to avoid double counting 615, 8 59% Estimated Rural, Urban and IDP population in crisis 1,5, 14 1%

17 IPC CLASSIFICATION Distribution of Populations in Crisis by Livelihood and Pop Groups Livelihood system Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency Population in Crisis as% of Total Agro Pastoral 1,987,62 615, 115, 115, 41 Fishing 17,779 Pastoral 2,136, , 51, 8, 59, 21 Riverine 366,683 14, 1, 1, 4 Destitute pastoral 98,96 99, 99, 35 Grand Total 4,67,86 1,341, 176, 17, 283, 1 Rural Stressed Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency Population in Crisis as% of Total Poor 1,13, 176, 17, 283, 1 Middle 211, Better off Grand Total 1,341, 176, 17, 283, 1 Urban Stressed Crisis Emergency Total in Crisis & Emergency Population in Crisis as% of Total Poor 341, 152, 152, 1 Middle Better off Grand Total 341, 152, 152, 1

18 Key Messages The numbers of population in crisis (IPC Phase 3 and 4) in post Deyr 212/13 reduced by over 5% from the post Gu 212 (Feb Jun 212) due to improved access and availability of food. In most areas poor food utilisation (e.g. lack of safe water, feeding practices for children, etc.) remains a major limiting factor of food security In the projection period up to June 213, 1.5 million people are estimated in acute food insecurity IPC Phases 3 and 4; this indicates a slight deterioration from the current situation (Feb 1, 213) of a total of 1. million people in crisis (IPC Phases 3 and 4) nationwide. 1.3mln people are also estimated in acute food insecurity IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), of which about 8% are in the South. Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2) implies that at least 2% of the population in the analysed area can meet food needs but is not able to cover some essential non food needs and has reduced ability to invest in livelihoods Majority of IDP settlements are in Emergency situation due to high morbidity and limited food access; high malnutrition rates and elevated death rates in Alert to Critical (5 IDP settlements, o/w 4 in the South Central) are evident in these settlements A total of 215, (14.3% of 1.5m) children <5 are acutely malnourished, of which two thirds are in the South; Overall nutrition situation is likely to remain unchanged across the country in the coming three months

19 Key Messages Assumption for Projections (Feb Jun 213) Gu rains are likely to be normal to below normal affecting marginal rain fed maize cropping in southern agropastoral areas of the country. Limited access to water for livestock is likely in parts of northern regions such as Sool Plateau and parts of Nugal Valley during Jilaal dry season (Jan Mar) Food at household level (milk and cereal stocks) as well as seasonal farm job opportunities for poor farmers will be available in the projection period; Cereal prices will follow a seasonal trend as a result of good Deyr harvest and anticipated supplies through humanitarian assistance and imports (port and cross border) Insecurity will persist (although reduced) in South Central causing disruptions of food supply into the markets, limiting humanitarian access and causing displacements Food security classification is likely to remain unchanged between now and June 213; But current projection assumption will be reviewed in March April based on updated information on climate performance; humanitarian interventions; security conditions

20 Key messages Required Response Lifesaving responses to the population in Emergency is a priority Protecting livelihoods and strengthening disaster risk reduction and mitigation through: strengthen existing public services and community based resources and assets that serve to protect vulnerable populations from falling into crisis. Building resilience of vulnerable poor households and addressing underlying causes of high malnutrition (lack of safe water and sanitation, caring/ feeding practices, etc.) to reduce the risks of food and nutrition insecurity

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