KAZAKHSTAN: NATIONAL WIND ATLAS AND MEASUREMENT PROGRAMME

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2 UNDP-GEF PROJECT CASE STUDY KAZAKHSTAN: NATIONAL WIND ATLAS AND MEASUREMENT PROGRAMME I. NATIONAL CONTEXT Kazakhtan i the orld ninth larget country ith over 2.7 million km 2 of varied terrain,hich i equivalent to the hole of Wetern Europe. From a ind reource point of vie, Kazakhtan i renoned to be one of the mot appropriate countrie in the orld to develop ind energy. Previouly there a no reliable ind data or map, and no attempt to identify or ae the feaibility of perpective ite and region for potential project location. There a alo no aement of ind potential and integration of ind energy into the current poer ytem. The abence of data a a major barrier for development and adoption of ind energy programme and deterred invetor from contructing ind farm in Kazakhtan. To addre thi and other market barrier to commercial ind poer development in Kazakhtan, in 1998 UNDP ith financial upport from the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) launched a project Kazakhtan Wind Poer Market Development Initiative. The project a implemented by the then Minitry of Energy and Mineral Reource (MEMR) no the Minitry of Indutry and Ne Technology (MINT) of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhtan (RoK). The total cot of UNDP- GEF project a USD 2.5 million ith roughly one third of the budget (USD ) pent on development of a national ind atla and the undertaking of a ind meaurement programme in 15 location acro the country. A a reult of UNDP-GEF effort, the Kazakhtan Wind Atla ha been created and publihed online (.atla.indenergy.kz). The Atla give long-term average ind peed at 80 meter (m) above ground level at 9 km reolution for much of the country, and at 100 m reolution for 9 area of particular interet. In addition, ind monitoring a conducted in 15 perpective ite and feaibility tudie ere prepared to facilitate invetment deciion (See Table 1 and Figure 1). THE MEASUREMENT PROGRAMME AND NATIONAL ATLAS. The ind meaurement programme in Kazakhtan ha been conducted in tage. a) Pilot Wind Meaurement Programme in Djungar and Chilik Gate by Riø National Laboratory ( ). Site election for pilot meaurement ere dictated by to primary conideration: a) both ite ere located in area facing high energy hortage Table 1 Reult of ind meaurement programme Wind potential meaurement ite Average ind peed (in m/ at 50 m height) Wind farm capacity (in MW) Poer generation (MWh/yr) Atana city (Akmola Oblat) ,800 Arkalik city (Kotanai Oblat) ,800 Djungar Gate (Almaty Oblat) ,800 Ft. Shevchenko (Mangytau Oblat) ,635 Ereymentau city (Akmola Oblat) ,610 Karakalink city (Karaganda Oblat) ,790 Zhuzhymdik village ,070 (S. Kazakhtan Oblat) Korday village (Zhambyi) Karabatan village (Atyarau Oblat) ,480 Shekik Corridor (Almaty Oblat) Source:.indenergy.kz

3 (increaing the need to explore alternative poer ource) and b) information from the local hydrometeorological ervice indicated the availability of good ind condition. The tudy collected ind peed and direction meaurement taken over one year from May 1998 to May 1999 at four meteorological mat in the centre of Djungar Gate and one mat in Chilik Gate. In addition, the global databae NCEP/NCAR - reanalyi for a ued to ait in quantifying the year-on-year ind climate variation. Further, hitorical data from previou invetigation ere examined and compared ith the preent reult. Five 32m mat ere intrumented pecifically for the ind tudy, but provided information on other climate tatitic a ell: atmopheric preure, air temperature, air temperature gradient, atmopheric tability, ind peed profile, extreme ind peed, and ind gut. The ind data from the five tation ere analyed uing the Wind Atla Analyi and Application Program (WaP), folloing the procedure and guideline of the European Wind Atla. For all five tation, the accuracy of the ind peed meaurement a verified by ind tunnel calibration uing cup anemometer. The pilot tudy document the exitence of very high ind energy reource at both location, ith mean ind peed and energy denitie in the order of 7.5 m 1 and 525 Wm 2 repectively, meaured at a height of 10 m in Djungar Gate; the ind reource i comparable or better than that found over the North Sea to the north of Scotland. The ind reource in Chilik Corridor i omehat loer but till ubtantial at 5.8 m -1 and 240 Wm -2, repectively at the height of 10 m; thi i comparable to a good open ite in Northern Europe. The annual poer production from three different common ind turbine ere etimated at the location of the meteorological mat. For example, a ind turbine ith a rated poer of 1 MW and a 50 m hub-height ould produce approximately 4400 MWh (capacity factor of 50%)in Djungar Gate, hich make thi location one of the bet ind turbine ite in the orld. Thi pilot ind meaurement programme at Djungar and Chilik Gate a conducted by the Riø National Laboratory 1, and Minitry of Energy and Natural Reource of Kazakhtan. Almaty Energy a reponible for planning, co-ordination, and aitance during intallation and operation. Operation and maintenance of mat a enured by MDE Conult Ap, AlmatyEnergy, and the UNDP- GEF Project team. Picture 1: Project team at ind meaurement ite Photo by M. Rakov and G.Dorohin, UNDP-GEF project team For further detail about the pilot ind meaurement tudy at Djungar and Chilik Gate, pleae ee the technical report at.indenergy.kz/file/ _file.pdf. b) Wind Meaurement Programme at Arkalyk, Atana, Ermentau, Karkaralink, Atyrau, Fort Shevchenko, Kordai and Zhumzhumdyk by PB Poer ( ) Each ite recorded approximately 12 month data, collected from 50 m tubular monitoring toer. Wind peed and direction ere recorded at multiple level (nominally 25 m and 50 m) by either Wilmer or Rioe intrument (all anemometer are calibrated to MEASNET tandard) ith ten minute averaged data recorded on Wilmer or Aanderaa data logger. Generally, the monitoring ite ere ituated in region of flat to undulating graland ith minimal man-made or natural tructure in the area. Data from each of the monitoring ite a collected monthly by UNDP-GEF project taff and verified by PB Poer. The verification included the folloing tep: Any miing data a flagged and the date tamp of miing data noted, particularly becaue during the monitoring period everal of the Kazakhtan ite ere affected by iced enor (i.e. anemometer and vane). PB examined the data for thi effect and removed any data believed to be recorded hile the intrument ere influenced by ice; 1. No Danih Technical Univerity (DTU)

4 Picture 2: Location of ind meaurement programme in Kazakhtan Time trace for each anemometer ere analyed to ho puriou or erroneou data; - Direction trace and ind roe ere analyed to highlight faulty vane; - Normalied ind peed plot ere analyed for evidence of any toer heltering effect. - It hould be noted that many of the ite exhibited a degree of toer heltering on the ide-mounted anemometer hich ere corrected by PB to cloer reflect the free tream ind peed; - Diurnal plot of ind hear and ind hear plot binned by direction ere analyed for occurrence of erroneou hear that may have been attributed to a malfunc-tioning anemometer. Diurnal average plot of ind peed ere analyed to conider the profile of ind in the region of the monitoring toer; Wind peed and the direction frequency table ereanalyed to highlight any dominant ind regime at the ite, and alo helped to highlight puriou ind peed or direction being recorded. Verified ind data from each ite a co-related ith a long-term reference dataet to predict the expected ind reource at each ite. Reference data a upplied by UNDP-GEF project from meteorological ite local to the ite monitoring toer and alo obtained from a re-analyi dataet by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP -.ncep.noaa.gov ) and the National Centre for Atmopheric Reearch (NCAR -.ncar.ucar.edu/). The reference ite choice a dictated by the quality of the reference data and the trength of the correlation ith the on-ite data. A the upper level intrument at all of the ite ere not at the elected hub-height, parametric ind hear analyi a performed on each long-term dataet to derive long-term hub-height ind data. The hub-height for the energy aement a choen by PB to be 80 m and the Veta V MW turbine a ued a a repreentative turbine type in the energy modelling acro all eight ite. Wind turbine layout ere created by PB to provide an indicative energy aement of the ite. Thi generally reulted in nominal 40 MW layout ith 6 rotor diameter pacing, except for the Kordai ite here ite topography prevented thi arrangement. In 2007 a deciion a taken to expand the cope of meaurement programme and add additional five ite acro Kazakhtan. The ite ere elected baed on Kazakhtan Wind Atla in conultation ith MEMR and other takeholder. UNDP-GEF project team carried out the meaurement programme in under the over-all guidance and technical upport from PB Poer.

5 Figure 1: Wind Map of Kazakhtan at 80 m and 9 km reolution. Source:.atla.indenergy.kz/ KAZAKHSTAN WIND ATLAS IMPACT OF THE PROGRAMME Development of Kazakhtan Wind Atla a initiated in 2007 by UNDP-GEF project to viualie ind reource potential and combine ind meaurement. The ind atla of Kazakhtan combine map of long-term ind peed ditribution from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhtan, adminitrative map of Republic of Kazakhtan and map of poer infratructure of the Republic of Kazakhtan. All cartographical information i preented in a pdf format. The ind map repreent a ditribution of long-term ind peed at height of 80 m. The reolution of the ind map of hole territory of Kazakhtan i 9 km. There i a number of elected area of Kazakhtan ith the reolution of 10 m (ee Figure 1) The ind atla of Kazakhtan a prepared by UNDP-GEF and MEMR ith technical upport from PB Poer and WindlabSytem (Autralia); it employed WindScape oftare, anathopheric model deigned to repreent ind condition at any point on the globe. UNDP-GEF project ha demontrated that Kazakhtan ha ome of the orld bet condition for ind energy development. Uing it huge ind reource, Kazakhtan can meet it on energy need, and could one day even become an exporter of clean and inexhautible ind energy, directly and indirectly. Baed on it practically infinite ind reource, the country could become a Euraian hub, e.g. for energy intenive indutrie and for environmental friendly production of energy intenive product, made ith ind. (Lettice, 2011) A tudy by Paron Brinckerhoff, commiioned by UNDP- GEF Project during the preparation of the Kazakhtan Wind Atla, hoed that over 50,000 km 2 of territory acro 9 of the country 14 oblat had good ind reource (7 m -1-8 m -1 ) and that part of the Almaty province contained area of very good (8 m -1-9 m -1 ) and exceptional ind peed (>9 m -1 ). The tudy etimate the potential ind reource in Kazakhtan to be in the region of 929 billion kwh per annum i.e. a ind energy capacity of 354 GW. Thi i 8 time greater than the current available poer generating capacity.

6 IMPACT OF THE KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL WIND ATLAS AND MEASUREMENT PROGRAMME Commercial ind farm ill normally require on ite data monitoring and robut ind reource aement (uing long-term data and tatitical technique) for development. Thi ork ha been completed for 15 propective ind farm ite in Kazakhtan ith a combined potential intalled capacity in exce of 500 MW. The development and publication (.atla.indenergy.kz) of the Kazakhtan Wind Atla a a very ignificant tep in developing an active ind energy indutry in Kazakhtan. It ha alloed potential developer to acce good quality reource information remotely. It ha alo alloed other takeholder ithin Kazakhtan to eaily vie the location and magnitude of ind energy reource at a national level for the firt time. Wind data and finding of the ind meaurement programme laid the bai for the development and ubequent adoption of the National Wind Poer Development Programme and target. The objective of the Programme i to achieve a target of 750 million kwh of electricity generation from ind energy in Kazakhtan by 2015 and 5 billion kwh by Thi production figure equate to approximately 250 MW and 2000 MW of ind capacity repectively. Further, the La about the Support of Uage of Reneable Energy Source(The RES La) a adopted in 2009 folloing preparatory orkby the MEMR and the UNDP-GEF. It creation i a very ignificantachievement a it provide a legal foundation for developer to baecommercial deciion and it further enhance the reputation of Kazakhtana a country intent on developing it ind energy potential. Given that there a no upport in place for ind energy generation hen the project began; there ha been ubtantial progre in laying the groundork for a robut ind energy market in Kazakhtan. The reneable energy la ha opened the door to reneable energy development, hile the completion of the ind atla and the project feaibility tudie hacreated a ne et of tranparent reource for propective developer and invetor. Finally, the focu on intitutional capacity building ithin the government and among external takeholder ha put ind energy on the map intitutionally and enabled the development of ne adminitrative function and procee. Wind development ha no begun in Kazakhtan, ith the firt 1.5 MW commercial ind project commiioned in December, 2011, ith a plan to expand thi project to 10 MW by Another 45 MW project i under contruction, and there are everal other project that are at advanced tage of development, including project in Djungar and Chilik Gate. For more information pleae viit.indenergy.kz. International Reneable Energy Agency C67 Office Building Khalidiyah [32nd] Street PO Box 236, Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirate.irena.org Copyright 2012