Here s to Making Good Decisions: Structured Decision Making and Bull Trout Reintroduction
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1 Here s to Making Good Decisions: Structured Decision Making and Bull Trout Reintroduction William Brignon James Peterson Jason Dunham Carl Schreck Howard Schaller
2 Rangewide Need for CPP? Conservation Propagation Program (CPP) Recovery Plan - Recommends study to determine the effectiveness and feasibility of using artificial propagation in bull trout recovery USFWS HRT recommendation Facility should Implement a bull trout recovery program
3 Local Need? Mid-Columbia Recovery Implementation Plan (RUIP) Recovery Task #4.2.7 RUIP recommends development of a feasibility assessment for reintroduction and translocation Yakima Action Plan (AP) Multiple Population Action #4 AP recommends development of a feasibility assessment to evaluate supplementation, transplantation, and Reintroduction
4 How to recover species? Structured Decision Making Adaptive Resource Management Strategic Habitat Conservation
5 RECOVERY ACTIONS FEASIBILITY OF CPP CONSERVATION PROPOGATION PROGRAM (CPP) EFFECTS OF CAPTIVITY EXAMPLES OF UNCERTAINTY UTILITY CPP Suitable recip hab Suitable donor popn Reintro Supplement Captive refugia Artificial Prod. Captive rearing Transloc Genetics Behavior Ecology Physiology Captive surv Postrelease surv Value to conserv Improve habitat Enhance existing popn Life stages & number? Morphology Natural recolonization Do nothing ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT
6 Objective Determine how captive rearing environments affect the development and behavior of BT
7
8 Enhanced Habitat Conventional Habitat Fish Health
9 The Hunger Games
10 no effect
11 Boldness Behavior
12 no effect * * 2 fish passed multiple times
13 Brain Development
14 Additional lessons learned Embryo collection methods Transport methods Basic husbandry Captive survival Fish Health Temperature and egg incubation Bull trout stress tests Eye development
15 Uncertainty Disease Density Flow Nutrition Rearing hab. Scale-up Genetics CPPs in action Monitor Nanophytus in YOY
16
17
18 RECOVERY ACTIONS FEASIBILITY OF CPP CONSERVATION PROPOGATION PROGRAM (CPP) EFFECTS OF CAPTIVITY EXAMPLES OF UNCERTAINTY UTILITY CPP Suitable recip hab Suitable donor popn Reintro Supplement Captive refugia Artificial Prod. Captive rearing Transloc Genetics Behavior Ecology Physiology Captive surv Postrelease surv Value to conserv Improve habitat Enhance existing popn Life stages & number? Morphology Natural recolonization Do nothing ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT
19
20 Objective Develop a decision model to evaluate the tradeoffs of alternative bull trout reintroduction strategies
21 Management alternatives strategy Embryo Juvi Sub-adult Small adult Adult 1 Do nothing Transloc Transloc Transloc Captive rearing 20k Artificial prop
22 Model structure t = 0 Donor Pop Dyn t = 1 Donor t = 5 Donor Captive Leslie Matrix Captive Recipient Recipient Recipient
23 Model ~ 35 parameters Growth Survival Fecundity Sex ratio Eggs/ DD function Juvenile CC Annual spawning Rapid captive growth Naïve penalty Strategy penalty Max egg survival
24 Utility What we care about most Explicit quantifiable objective Build a recipient popn DO NOT crash donor popn Are they equal?
25 Recip adult G/P Recip DD egg surv Sex ratio Fecundity One way sensitivity Most sensitive Donor adult G/P Donor DD egg surv Starting donor popn Captive G/P Annual spawning Rapid captive G Naïve penalty Strategy penalty Relative value Least sensitive
26 Two way sensitivity Artificial Prop survival High Low Artificial Production 60 Adults Captive Rear 20k embryos Translocate Adults Low Translocation survival High
27 Two way sensitivity Adult growth Donor Recipient Adult survival Donor Recipient DD parameters Fecundity Naïve penalty Captive Recipient Rapid growth Annual spawning Strategy penalties
28 State Dependent Policy Recipient popn > 500 Donor popn >
29 Sequential decision making Through time Popn Popn Popn Decision Decision Decision time Space and time Site A Site B Site C Site D Site E Site F Site G time C. Moore JT Peterson
30 Questions (360)
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