Current Research for Future Modeling

Transcription

1 Current Research for Future Modeling Nancy E. Kinner Kimberly S. Newman Coastal Response Research Center 2007 Clean Gulf Conference November 15,

2 Coastal Response Research Center A partnership between NOAA s Office of Response and Restoration (ORR) and the University of New Hampshire (UNH) Formed 2004 Co-Directors Nancy Kinner, UNH Amy Merten, NOAA ORR 2

3 Overall Center Mission 1. Develop new approaches to spill response and restoration through research/synthesis of information 2. Transform research results into practice 3. Serve as a hub for spill research, development, and technical transfer Oil spill community (e.g., RRTs, internationally) 4. Conduct outreach to improve preparedness and response 5. Serve as a learning center for new approaches to spill response and restoration 3

4 Overall Center Mission 1. Develop new approaches to spill response and restoration through research/synthesis of information 2. Transform research results into practice 3. Serve as a hub for spill research, development, and technical transfer Oil spill community (e.g., RRTs, internationally) 4. Conduct outreach to improve preparedness and response 5. Serve as a learning center for new approaches to spill response and restoration 4

5 Current Center Funded Research on Spill Modeling 5

6 Measurements and Modeling of Size Distributions, Settling and Dispersions Rates of Oil Droplets in Turbulent Flows J. Katz and B. Gopalan, Johns Hopkins Univ. Effects of turbulence and oil properties on: mean settling velocity dispersion rate characteristic size distributions of oil droplets in sea water Developing data on the transport of oil droplets in turbulent flows Resulting in reliable algorithms for use in predictive models 6

7 Isotropic Turbulence Generating Facility with One View Digital Holography Optical Setup High Speed Camera Capturing Streaming Holograms Spinning Grids Demagnifying Lens Injector Spatial Filter y Collimating Lens Laser 7

8 Measurements and Modeling of Size Distributions, Settling and Dispersions Rates of Oil Droplets in Turbulent Flows 8

9 Sample 3-D diesel droplet tracks obtained by recording holograms in two perpendicular directions simultaneously v cm/s Y 10 mm V3 Z X V1 10 mm 9

10 Horizontal dispersion coefficient for different droplet sizes at Re l = 190 D xx (cm 2 /sec) mm 0.8 mm 0.9 mm 1.0 mm 1.1 mm t/τ η 10

11 Delivery and Quality Assurance of Short- Term Trajectory Forecasts from HF Radar Observations N. Garfield (SFSU), C. Ohlmann (UCSB), J. Paduan (Navel Postgrad. Sch.) Goal: evaluate the use of HF radar data and resulting maps as tools to support oil spill response Develop and implement protocols for use of surface current data in incidents within areas having HF radar coverage Assessment of lessons learned from Save Seas

12 HF Radar Tower 12

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15 Center s Oil-in-Ice Modeling 15

16 Center s Oil-in-Ice Initiative Center Advisory Board and NOAA ORR recommend that Center become involved in Joint Industry Program initiative Experimental spills of oil in ice in Svalbard,NO and Barents Sea Focus on exposure/effects from oil on Arctic organisms Focus on Arctic because of current rapid development of oil/gas resources there Spills are inevitable 16

17 Seasonal Progression of Oil Frozen into Ice Field in Winter, and Released During Melting and Breakup in Spring 17

18 Conceptual Model Food Web Cycle Pelagic Feeders (fish, marine mammals) 18

19 Transport/Exposure Mechanisms Diffusion Ice Bulk oil encapsulated in ice from below measure dissolved constituents (WAF - e.g., PAHs) Bulk Oil Ice with Brine Channels 1m C particulates Biodegradation C oil droplets Density of brine transport downward will transport dissolved (bioavailable) components of oil downward Diffusion Sea Water 19

20 Oil-in-Ice: Behavior, Biodegradation and Potential Exposure Focused on Oil-in-Ice 1) Transport/exposure Brine rejection, cycling Diffusion 2) Biodegradation 3) Modeling Assumption: Once oil (dissolved, particulates, bulk droplets) leaves ice structure go to other models & databases (hydrodynamic, toxicity models, etc.) 20

21 Oil-in-Ice: Behavior, Biodegradation and Potential Exposure Focused on Oil-in-Ice 1) Transport/exposure Brine rejection, cycling Diffusion 2) Biodegradation 3) Modeling Assumption: Once oil (dissolved, particulates, bulk droplets) leaves ice structure go to other models & databases (hydrodynamic, toxicity models, etc.) 21

22 Model of Oil Encapsulation & Release in First Year Ice M. Reed, H. Eicken, C. Petrich Model Attributes and Processes: 1- or 2-Dimensional (Vertical-Horizontal) 1-D is simpler 2-D will allow uneven distribution of oil under and in ice Focus on Microscale (mm) to Mesoscale (~1 m) Processes Time-Dependent: Will Simulate Annual Freezing-Thawing Cycle Ice State Variables: Porosity/permeability (not the same; the latter is a function of the connectivity of the porosity) Thickness Temperature gradient (vertical) Salinity Capability for Eventual Inclusion as Module in 3-D Oil Spill Models 22

23 Current Spill Modeling Research Needs 23

24 Center Involves: Governmental agencies, industry, consultants, NGOs, academic institutions at local, state, regional, national and international levels in: identifying research needs evaluating and demonstrating promising technologies fostering the use of technology as part of new, integrative approaches to response and restoration 24

25 Research Needs Workshops 2-3 day Center-hosted events invited participants Affiliations: State, federal and international entities Private sector (industry and consultants) Academia NGOs Approach: Presentations on key issues/themes Plenary and small breakout sessions to discussion needs 25

26 Research Needs Workshops Oil Spill R&D Priorities Nov 03 Dispersants Use Sept 05 Human Dimensions of Oil Spills Jun 06 Innovative Coastal Modeling Sept 06 Submerged Oil Dec 06 Spill Modeling Jun 07 Data Collection and Standards Sept 07 Habitat Equivalency Analysis Metrics Dec 07 26

27 Research Needs Workshops Oil Spill R&D Priorities Nov 03 Dispersants Use Sept 05 Human Dimensions of Oil Spills Jun 06 Innovative Coastal Modeling Sept 06 Submerged Oil Dec 06 Spill Modeling Summit Jun 07 Data Collection and Standards Sept 07 Habitat Equivalency Analysis Metrics Dec 07 27

28 Refer to C.J. Beegle-Krause s Preceding Presentation on Outcomes Integrated Modeling Workshop 28

29 Research Needs Workshops Oil Spill R&D Priorities Nov 03 Dispersants Use Sept 05 Human Dimensions of Oil Spills Jun 06 Innovative Coastal Modeling Sept 06 Submerged Oil Dec 06 Spill Modeling Summit Jun 07 Data Collection and Standards Sept 07 Habitat Equivalency Analysis Metrics Dec 07 29

30 Modeling Summit Premier oil spill modelers convened to discuss modeling state-of-the-art and future research needs Discussions were outgrowth of Sept 06 Center workshop on integrated modeling Foster collaboration Unique forum for bringing diverse group of modelers together General consensus: Modelers eager to continue working together Center s working group concept 30

31 Modeling Summit Discussion focused on: Common elements of models State-of-the-art models in use Ways to improve spill response modeling (i.e., future modeling efforts) Future research needs 31

32 Participating Organizations NOAA ORR Emergency Response Division Assessment and Restoration Division UNH/NOAA Center for Coastal Ocean Mapping Data Visualization Research Lab Applied Science Associates, Inc. BP America Environment Canada ExxonMobil SINTEF Temple University Texas A&M University U.S. EPA University of Miami 32

33 Research Needs Vertical and horizontal dispersion coefficients and how to build into model Langmuir model (wind drift, Stokes drift, surface mix layer) and how to build into model Oil sediment interactions and how to build into model 33

34 Research Needs Emulsification When does emulsification begin? To answer this need mechanistic algorithm based on oil composition and environmental conditions 34

35 Research Needs - Biology TOP PRIORITY: More short-term toxicity data (less than 12 hours true acute) Variety of representative cold/warm water species Characterization of exposure for all studies Exposure to chemically dispersed oil More long-term effects of acute exposures Variety of representative cold/warm water species Characterization of exposure for all studies Exposure to chemically dispersed oil Growth, behavior and reproductive factors (Species dependent) Several Center-funded research projects address toxicity/effects topics Avoidance/Attraction of birds to oil 35

36 Research Needs - Validation Effect of the uncertainty in the input on the model output (i.e., sensitivity) Oil type & characteristics Uncertainty must be effectively communicated to decision makers Monitoring during spills Water column 4-D (x, y, z directions + time) - drifters to track plume Density profiles Concentration, and size distribution of oil droplets and dissolved components J. Katz, Johns Hopkins Univ. Exposed creatures Bird & turtle exposure & impacts (beyond dead bodies) 36

37 Research Needs - Validation Experimental Spill?? Not possible in U.S. Possible in Canada and Norway with focus on oil-inice Svalbard Ice 2008 (NO) Center s Oil-in-Ice Initiative Barents Sea 2009 (NO) Center s Oil-in-Ice Initiative St. Lawrence 2008? (Canada s DFO) Spill of Opportunity Hard and costly to plan for Need to get concentration data for individual compounds rapidly 37

38 Research Needs Integration of Observed Data into Models Nowcast/forecast QA/QC Data mining HF radar, IOOS maps, etc. N. Garfield, UCSF Remote sensing (wave fields, currents, oil distribution, sea surface heights, oil ashore) How to address differences in time & space scales hours days weeks decades 38

39 Research Needs Integration of Observed Data into Models Technology and standards to translate data to model Center s Environmental Response Data Collection Standards Workshop Sept 07 Tech transfer from meteorology and oceanography and atmospheric dispersion Fast models Fast decisions 39

40 Unresolved Issues Capture on the shorelines Shoreline distribution Droplet distribution as a function of energy dissipation rate Surface Bottom Air concentration (hydrocarbons) Submerged Oil Tech transfer of current research into operations More transparency in models Calculating concentrations from Lagrangian method 40

41 Research Needs - Visualization 4-D visualization of 3-D concentrations with uncertainty communicated to non-modelers Software tool (?) or representation standards Not model specific Interactive visualization tool for modelers Interactive visualization tool for decisionmakers & information management Center s ERMA Initiative 41

42 Environmental Response Management Application (ERMA) Initiative 42

43 Coastal Response Research Center Environmental Response Management Application (ERMA) Demonstration Friday, November 16 (Clean Gulf) The Tampa Marriott Waterside Hotel Room 10 7:30 8:30 am Bagels and Coffee Provided A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words 43

44 ERMA Integrated modeling approach to displaying incident information and providing validated data with GIS-based technology Broad integration across oil spill community (e.g., USCG, NOAA, state agencies, potential responsible parties) NOAA ORR detail at UNH for Michele Jacobi of Assessment and Restoration Division Collaboration with UNH s Joint Hydrographic Center and Environmental Data Collaborative 44

45 Spill Incident Info Volume & Chemistry of Spill Hydrodynamic and Shoreline Data Resources at Risk 45

46 Coastal Response Research Center Environmental Response Management Application (ERMA) Demonstration Friday, November 16 (Clean Gulf) The Tampa Marriott Waterside Hotel Room 10 7:30 8:30 am Bagels and Coffee Provided A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words 46