Ko Sakamoto Transport Economist Asian Development Bank. 9 February 2012 Manila, Philippines

Transcription

1 Tip of the Iceberg? The current state of transport NAMAs Ko Sakamoto Transport Economist Asian Development Bank 9 February 2012 Manila, Philippines The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this presentation and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms. Transport: the awakening dragon MtCO O2e International Aviation International Shipping Non-OECD OECD 23% of global CO2 from transport Growth of 2.8% p.a. expected between 2006 and 2030 Most growth foreseen in road transport in developing countries Transport Emission i Projections (Source: Sakamoto, K, 2010 based on IEA 2010 and AEA 2010)

2 Copyright Ko Sakamoto Copyright Ko Sakamoto Copyright Ko Sakamoto Copyright Ko Sakamoto

3 Copyright Ko Sakamoto How to tame the dragon Avoid the need to travel Shift towards/maintain share of sustainable modes Improve efficiency of all modes Climate mitigation Further development benefits Paradigm shift in infrastructure development

4 How can NAMAs help? Decision 1/CP.16 (Cancun Agreements) 48. Agrees that developing country Parties will take nationally appropriate mitigation actions in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, aimed at achieving a deviation in emissions relative to business as usual emissions in 2020; What does this mean? NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action Often referred to as Co-benefits Reduces poverty Reduces traffic accidents Reduces air pollution Relieves congestion Supports competitiveness Reduces GHGs from the baseline. In a measurable way MRV

5 Types of NAMAs NAMAs in developing countries International Support Domestically supported NAMAs Internationally supported NAMAs Creditable NAMAs Technology/ knowledge transfer Capacity building MRV Financing Types of NAMAs Can be projects, programs, policies and strategies Can be in any sector/subsector

6 Many countries are submitting NAMA proposals in transport 64% Non-Annex I Parties proposing transport NAMAs (28 out of 44) Adopted d from Binsted, Available at : Some examples of transport NAMAs from Asian developing countries Indonesia (submitted) Shifting to low-emission transportation modes Mongolia (submitted) To promote the import of fuel efficient vehicles use economic measures such as implementation of used vehicle import standards d and vehicle registration ti tax Bangladesh (proposed) Replacement of inefficient i vehicles and engines The expansion of mass transport PRC (proposed) Reform pricing mechanisms related to oil, natural gas and electricity Subsidies and incentives for clean energy vehicles

7 Coverage of ASI in NAMAs Based on Matsuoka (2011) and Binsted (2011) Tip of the iceberg Submitted NAMAs NAMAs in preparation Actions not referred to as NAMAs

8 Where are the climate negotiations now? Legal form: Progress in Durban, with view on a common legal framework post 2020 Kyoto Protocol kept alive Targets: level of ambition inadequate to keep to 2 degree rise Financing: Operationalization of Green Climate Fund Technology: Establishment of the Climate Technology Center and Network Adaptation: Operationalization of adaptation fund Mitigation: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions COP17 Decisions (AWG-LCA) Developing countries invited to submit (further) information on their NAMAs to the Secretariat, by 5 March 2012, including: Underlying assumptions and methodologies Sectors and gases covered Global warming potential values used Support needs for implementation of nationally appropriate mitigation actions and Estimated mitigation outcomes In-session workshops to be held at the SB p meetings (June)

9 COP17 Decisions (AWG-LCA) For domestically supported NAMAs, Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) to develop general guidelines for MRV For internationally supported NAMAs, developing countries invited to submit further details on: Description of the mitigation action and national implementing entity Timeframe for implementation Estimated full cost of preparation Estimated full cost and incremental cost of implementation Amount and type of support required Estimated emission reductions Other indicators of implementation Other relevant information including co-benefits Next step: matching NAMAs with support NAMAs in developing countries International Support Domestically supported NAMAs Internationally supported NAMAs Creditable NAMAs Technology/ knowledge transfer Capacity building MRV Financing

10 How are NAMAs different to existing mechanisms? CDM NAMAs Target Projects (e.g. BRT) and Policies, programmes and projects programmes of activities (PoA) Initiator Private sector,, i.e. National government (in cooperation Companies and designated operational entities (DOEs) with sub-national governments and private sector) Requirements Concept of additionality i Should deliver deviation i in emissions i Sustainable development relative to business as usual merits to be proven by emissions in 2020 government Registration with UNFCCC (Details to be confirmed) Financing Upfront financing by private Domestic resources plus entities. international support (e.g. MDB CERs awarded ex-post funding, Green Climate Fund) Impact : (15-30% against BAU): 500 Mt CO2eq more than 40,000 Mt CO2eq? Based on Diaz-Bone (2011) Lessons learnt from the CDM 6,147 proposals for CDM project activities submitted for validation and/or registration by the CDM Executive Board Only 0.6% (37 proposals) have been submitted as transport projects Only 0.16 Mt CO2-eq. reduced per annum in transport sector Source: Gomez, 2011 based on UNEP Risoe Centre Need for NAMAs not to repeat the same mistake

11 What do countries need to make NAMAs work? Photo: Arimbi Jinca (GIZ) Main hurdles identified Registration Financing MRV Policy Identification Copyright Ko Sakamoto

12 Policy Identification Ensure transport ministries and local governments are engaged in NAMA formulation Learn from best practices within and outside of the region (south-south transfer) Ensure supportive policy framework is in place (e.g. legislation and institutions) Policy identification MRV and programming Further develop transport sector compatible tools/methodologies to MRV transport NAMAs > TEEMP tools financed by ADB Ensure MRV requirements do not restrict efforts in the sector Work to improve quality and quantity of data > ADB TA on Transport Data starting in 2012

13 MRV Policy / Appraisal identification Financing and programming Financial resources are already there (e.g. ADB s Sustainable Transport Initiative) More opportunities on the way: Green Climate Fund to mobilize approx. 10 bn per annum Develop a strong pipeline of bankable projects MRV Policy / Appraisal identification Registration and programming Ensure early registration of NAMAs: Reap first movers advantagea Keep eye out on other countries for ideas Exchange experience via e.g.:

14 How can we work together? Register early Link NAMAs with finance Build capacity Registration Financing MRV Build pipeline Policy Identification Copyright Ko Sakamoto Making the iceberg stick out What you cannot see, you cannot support MRV is an important component in making this happen

15 Thank you Ko Sakamoto