Maximizing Your Assets Life Through Reliability. James Decker, PE, CRL

Transcription

1 Maximizing Your Assets Life Through Reliability James Decker, PE, CRL

2 Asset Management helps to answer the five fundamental questions of Infrastructure Management 1. What assets do we own? 2. What is their condition? 3. How should we manage them? 4. What is best timing for investments? 5. How much money do we need? 2

3 Asset Management Definition Effective Asset Management is: An integrated set of processes to minimize the life-cycle costs of owning, operating and maintaining assets, at an acceptable level of risk, while continuously delivering established levels of service Implementing Asset Management A Practical Guide AMWA, NACWA, WEF Managing Public Infrastructure Assets to Minimize Costs and Maximize Performance AMSA, AMWA, AWWA, WEF 3

4 Asset Management is a Balancing Act Minimize the lifecycle costs of owning, operating and maintaining infrastructure assets, at an acceptable level of risk, while continuously delivering established levels of service. Low Costs Service Levels 4 RISK

5 Replace Level of Service Repair Rehab Planning, Engineering and O&M Groups must work together to minimize lifecycle costs Useful Life Acceptable performance Service Life Marginal performance Unacceptable performance Time 5

6 The Asset Lifecycle Acquisition, Construction, & Installation Operation and Maintenance Operate/ Maintain Dispose 90-95% of Asset Life Disposal Planning and Design 6

7 Managing Assets Throughout Their Life Cycle Planning & Design Acquisition, Construction, & Installation Disposal Operation & Maintenance Rule of thumb #1 65% of Life Cycle Cost is set during design / specification Rule of thumb #2 The O&M costs usually account for the largest component of total life cycle costs (between 2x to 20x the acquisition/construction cost). 7

8 Our Job as Reliability Professionals Reduce overall asset operational risk using the resources provided to us. Therefore, a proper measurement of our job performance would be Total Risk Reduced / Total Resources Invested Risk To improve..we can either reduce more risk, or reduce resource investment..or better yet, do both!!! Investment 8

9 5 Basic Functions of Maintenance Increase asset performance/reliability to reduce operational costs and liabilities (risk) Dedicate maintenance resources based on liabilities of equipment operation, or in other words, based on asset risk (includes operational, safety, environment & financial) Increase the efficiency and effectiveness of maintenance performance to reduce planned costs and liabilities Increase the efficiency and effectiveness of maintenance performance to reduce unplanned costs and liabilities Document data and information to be used for improving the performance of the maintenance and reliability program 9

10 Maintenance Basics Overhaul / Repair Asset Condition Asset wears over time Required Performance User Defined Initial Useful Extended Life Failure useful life through overhauls / maintenance Repair Downtime $$ O&M Costs Avg O&M Costs over time Time 10

11 Maintenance Basics Goal #2 is to address poor condition in advance of functional failure and/or catastrophic damage Asset Condition $$ O&M Costs Avg O&M Costs over time Goal #1 is to extend the interval between failures/ overhauls (MTBF) thru effective O&M practices, (doing the right maintenance right / Operating correctly) Time Goal #3 is to minimize the downtime & costs by increasing efficiency in the work process, effective logistics, etc. (reduce MTTR) Goal #4 is to extend the full life of the asset to as long as practical thru effective maintenance Goal #5 is to determine when it makes sense to replace rather than overhaul / repair 11

12 Equipment Failure Patterns A B C D E F Traditional View Random Failure then a wear out zone Bathtub Curve - High infant mortality, then a low level of random failure, then a wear out zone Slow Aging - Steady increase in the probability of failure Best New - Sharp increase in the probability of failure then random failure Constant Random Failure Random - No age related failure pattern Worst New High infant mortality then random failure 12 12

13 Equipment Failure Patterns A DOD RCM % USN MSP % SUBMEPP % Traditional View Random Failure then a wear out zone B 4 % 17 % 10 % Bathtub Curve - High infant mortality, then a low level of random failure, then a wear out zone C 5 % 3 % Study 17 Average % Only Slow 21% Aging of all - Steady components increase in the probability of exhibit an aging failure to failure rate relationship. D 7 % 6 % 9 % Best New - Sharp increase in the probability of failure then random failure E F 14 % 68 % 42 % 29 % 56 % 6 % Constant Random Failure Random - No age related failure pattern Worst New High infant mortality then random failure 13 13

14 Pipe Failure Modes 14 Water Services Association of Australia

15 Pipe Failure Modes 15 Water Services Association of Australia

16 Pipe Failure Modes 16 Water Services Association of Australia

17 Reliability & Availability Evolution To Best Practice Analysis ~ Reliability Based Proactive Data ~ Condition Based Predictive Time Based Preventive Breakdown Reactive Maintenance Cost 17

18 Identifying & Quantifying Risk

19 Asset Management is a Balancing Act Minimize the lifecycle costs of owning, operating and maintaining infrastructure assets, at an acceptable level of risk, while continuously delivering established levels of service. Low Costs Service Levels 19 RISK

20 20 To effectively implement a Reliability Based maintenance program, it is essential to identify and quantify the operational risk within our asset population.

21 Risk is quantified by the classic equation Risk = (Consequence x Probability) How severe are the consequences of asset failure? How likely is it for the asset to fail? 21

22 Understanding the risk of asset failure provides The basis for investing in condition assessments The basis for optimizing O&M The basis for prioritizing R&R capital investments A uniform and rigorous methodology that results in defensible decisions 22

23 Risk = Consequence x Probability 2 Basic Options For Identifying Risk Proactively What could happen Risk Ranking, RCM, FMEA to anticipate where risk is highest and to implement actions that will minimize, prevent or mitigate anticipated failures. 23

24 Risk Ranking of Assets 1. Health & Safety (public and organization) Potential loss of life Multiple illness or injury Single illness or injury 2. Environmental Consequence x Probability Major impact (Permit violation, EPA, regulatory fine, etc.) Minor impact (Internal documentation only) 3. Costs (Maintenance or Operations) Greater than $50k Between $25k and $50k Less than $25k 4. Impact on Operations Long term high Short term high Low X Probability of Failure The difficult piece 5. Impact on Services to Customer Complete loss - long term Complete loss short term Partial loss - long term Partial loss short term 24

25 Risk = Consequence x Probability 2 Basic Options For Identifying Risk Historically What has happened Historical Failure Analysis to use failure reporting information to understand where it s been demonstrated that risk is highest, and to implement actions that will minimize, prevent or mitigate that risk. Notice the repeated concentration of reactive labor hours against the same assets year after year 25

26 Pareto Principle Pareto was right! A large percentage of the problems (equipment failures) are associated with only a very small percentage of the assets Although commonly known as the rule, in industrial settings it s closer to 80 5 (80% of problems are associated with only 5% of assets) And then within those 5% of assets, it s only a small percentage of failure modes that cause a majority of the downtime Effective work documentation and failure reporting will allow easy targeting of the small percentage of failure modes that we need to be concerned with and actively go after 26

27 Identifying Risk - Historically Water Treatment 4.1% What percentage of your asset population consumes 80% of your resources? 27

28 Condition Based Maintenance

29 Asset Management is a Balancing Act Minimize the lifecycle costs of owning, operating and maintaining infrastructure assets, at an acceptable level of risk, while continuously delivering established levels of service. Low Costs Service Levels 29 RISK

30 Because of the work done in the 1970 s establishing that most equipment failures are random in nature, condition based maintenance was born into industry...because if you don t know when a failure is coming (random), the only option is to monitor a parameter of that equipment that will provide advanced warning of the impending failure. 30 Maximo Training - EAM Benefits

31 Condition Based Maintenance Point where impending failure is detected is Potential Failure (P) Vibration 1 to 9 months Oil Analysis 1 to 6 months Thermography 3-12 weeks P1 P2 P3 Audible noise 1-4 weeks Life at the Bottom Plan on the fly Expedite Parts Parts Not Available Extended Outages Hurry & Fix It Fast No Time To Analyze Failure High Impact on Operations Rework P4 Point where asset stops doing what its users want it to do is Failure (F) P5 Heat by touch 1-5 days P6 Smoke 0 days P F Interval 31

32 Condition Based Maintenance Point where impending failure is detected is Potential Failure (P) Vibration 1 to 9 months Oil Analysis 1 to 6 months Thermography 3-12 weeks P1 P2 P3 Audible noise 1-4 weeks Life at the Top Time to Plan & Schedule Parts Can Be Ordered Less Parts On Site Less Costly Repairs Less Impact On Operations Time & Data To Analyze Failure Less Rework P4 Point where asset stops doing what its users want it to do is Failure (F) P5 Heat by touch 1-5 days P6 Smoke 0 days P F Interval 32

33 Cost of Reliability Programs PM is 29% Less Costly Than RTF PdM is 42% Less Costly Than PM PCM is 43% Less Costly Than PdM RTF Run To Failure PM Preventive Maintenance PdM Predictive Maintenance PCM Precision Centered Maintenance 33

34 CBM Techniques (Short List) Performance Monitoring Vibration Monitoring Oil Analysis Thermography Ultrasonic Detection Motor Static Testing Motor Dynamic Testing Human Senses (look, listen, smell, touch) 34

35 What Technique To Use? Depends on failure mode trying to detect. Depends on techniques available. Depends on P-F interval technique will provide. Depends on bang for the buck. Some techniques will monitor several failure modes at the same time. 35

36 Head Technique #1- Performance Monitoring Performance Monitoring - evaluation of an asset s operating parameters (e.g. pressure, temp, flow, speed) through trend analysis or set point thresholds that will allow forecasting asset failure. Pump Performance New Pump Meets Reqt's Needs Repair February January March April Flow Rate 36

37 Technique #2 - Vibration Monitoring Vibration Monitoring - periodic or continuous measurement of a machine s vibration amplitude and/or signature in an effort to detect machinery problems and/or to alarm or shut down the machine at a predetermined vibration value. 37

38 Technique #3 - Oil Analysis Oil Analysis - periodic sampling and analysis of various properties and materials in lubricating oil, insulating oil, fuel oil, or hydraulic fluid to determine the condition of the oil or the condition of the machine. 38

39 Technique #4 - Thermography Thermography - an electronically produced image representative of thermal patterns on a surface. 39

40 Technique #5 - Ultrasonic Detection Ultrasonic Detection - Using specialized equipment to detect sound with a frequency greater than 20,000 Hz, approximately the upper limit of human hearing (ultrasound). 40

41 Technique #6 - Electrical Insulation Testing Electrical Insulation Testing - Applying a controlled voltage to an insulated wire conductor system and measuring the current leakage to determine the condition of the insulation. 41

42 Technique #7 - Motor Current Signature Analysis Motor Current Signature Analysis (MCSA) - Using the induction motor electric power supply signature to identify electrical and mechanical equipment problems. 42

43 Condition Assessment for Water Pipes 43

44 Phase 1 Techniques 44

45 Phase 2 Techniques 45

46 Phase 3 Techniques 46

47 Reliability Methods for Asset Management

48 I n c r e a s i n g A s s e t ( S y s t e m ) C o m p l e x i t y I n c r e a s i n g R e s o u r c e I n v e s t m e n t Maintenance Analysis Methods to Consider Method Focus Application Pros Cons RCM Function Highly critical and complex assets FMEA Equipment Mid to highly critical assets with moderate complexity MTA Maintenance Tasks Improving or optimizing existing PM program tasks PMO Program Optimizing heavilyloaded PM programs DE Problem For resolving evident and high impact problems Promotes reliability of the essential aspects of the asset Most effective for analyzing complex assets and minimizing maintenance efforts Process can be used as a template for similar assets Structured and repeatable approach that is relatively easy to learn Can be performed by a single individual who is familiar with the equipment type Process can be used as a template for similar assets Faster than either RCM or FMEA if just being used to optimize a PM program Can be used with FMEA to optimize PM program to address all failure modes Can be performed by a single individual who is familiar with the equipment type Provides rapid returns in the form of improved PM tasks and / or reduced PM labor hours Analyzes all PM activities defined in the program, not just on critical assets Addresses PM scheduling and coordination issues Addresses existing problems Results are realized in near-term which maintains momentum Empowers staff to identify and implement solutions which increases acceptance of the process Requires participation of individuals who thoroughly understand the function the asset serves within its process context Time and resource intensive Potential to add unnecessary maintenance activities for mitigating failures Human errors may not be captured Less effective in sharing knowledge among staff as compared with RCM If just used to analyze existing PM program, there is a possibility to miss failure modes Doesn't share knowledge as effectively as RCM Relies heavily on expertise and experience of PMO analyst Not a failure mode level analysis Effort is focused more on improving use of PM labor resources as opposed to mitigating risk Only deals with historical problems, not on potential failures that have yet to occur Concentrates on specific problems making it difficult to leverage the effort across a population of assets 48

49 Uptime Elements Identify Critical Success Factors for Organizations to Consider 49

50 Uptime Elements Identify Critical Success Factors for Organizations to Consider 50

51 Uptime Elements Identify Critical Success Factors for Organizations to Consider 51

52 Uptime Elements Identify Critical Success Factors for Organizations to Consider 52

53 Uptime Elements Identify Critical Success Factors for Organizations to Consider 53

54 Thank You! Questions?

55 Maximizing Your Assets Life Through Reliability James Decker, PE, CRL