2011 RFP for All Generation Sources Proposal Conference

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1 2011 RFP for All Generation Sources Proposal Conference August 16, 2011

2 Agenda Welcome and introductory remarks Chris Bevil, Manager Resource Acquisition RFP for All Generation Sources ( All Source RFP ) Aliza Seelig, Consulting Financial Analyst Schedule Resource Need Elements of the 2011 RFP solicitation RFP evaluation process Spencer Watts, Financial Analyst Evaluation process Bidders checklist and contact information 2

3 RFP schedule calls for proposals by Nov. 1* August 1, 2011 August 16, 2011 September 30, 2011** October 13, 2011** October 18, 2011** October 24, 2011** November 1, 2011 Q To follow Draft RFP filed with WUTC PSE hosts proposal conference Public comments due WUTC approval expected PSE releases final RFP solicitation Mutual Confidentiality Agreements due to PSE Offers due to PSE Final short list selected, respondents notified Post-proposal negotiations *This schedule is subject to adjustment based on WUTC review and the actual pace of PSE's evaluation process. Any updates will be posted online at **Milestones in teal have been revised since the draft RFP was filed on Aug. 1, 2011 to reflect changes requested by the WUTC. 3

4 PSE seeks 385 MW of capacity by end of 2012* 9,000 8,000 Capacity need** 7, MW MW 6,000 5,000 4, MW 1,604 MW 2, , ,000 1, *Revised capacity need information will be posted online at **Capacity need quantities assume that PSE will need additional operating reserves Colstrip Contracts Wind Mid-C Transmission Available Dec Peak Load % PM IRP DSR + Op Reserves PSE Gas-fired Units Hydro NUGs Dec Peak Load % PM + Op Reserves 4

5 Near-term RPS targets achieved 4000 Lower Snake River Phase I Lower Baker Upgrades Snoqualmie Upgrades Klondike III Wild Horse with Expansion Hopkins Ridge with Infill RPS Need: F2011 "Load" less DSR 771 RECs 1484 RECs Total RECs ('000) * If proposing a qualifying renewable resource that is located outside the Pacific Northwest as defined for the Bonneville Power Administration in Section 3 of the Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning and Conservation Act (94 Stat. 2698; 16 U.S.C. Sec. 839a), describe how the electricity from the facility will be delivered into Washington state on a real-time basis without shaping, storage, or integration services. 5

6 Resources that follow PSE s electric load shape evaluate most favorably F2011 Normal Peak (MW) 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

7 Agenda Welcome and introductory remarks Chris Bevil, Manager Resource Acquisition RFP for All Generation Sources ( All Source RFP ) Aliza Seelig, Consulting Financial Analyst Schedule Resource Need Elements of the 2011 RFP solicitation RFP evaluation process Spencer Watts, Financial Analyst Evaluation process Bidders checklist and contact information 7

8 RFP seeks capacity resources to fill near-term need Approximately 400 MW capacity delivered to PSE s system on a firm basis needed by end of Preference for online or near-term resources. Eligible resources will be online by or before Preference for long-term resources with flexible contract start dates. Market PPAs must be delivered to BPAT.PSEI to qualify for this RFP.* Renewables must be competitive with capacity resources or market. Demand-side resource products are not eligible for this RFP separate energy efficiency RFP coming soon! * Market / Non-unit contingent PPAs delivered to Mid-C or anywhere outside PSE s system are not eligible for this RFP. 8

9 Commercial structure and compliance considerations All proposals must comply with Washington s Emissions Performance Standards ¹ PSE will consider the following acquisition mechanisms: Ownership arrangements, including co-ownership arrangements in which PSE retains adequate dispatchability and rights of control Power Purchase Agreements of varying lengths (>4 years) ² Temporal Exchange Agreements Transmission-only product agreements PSE s preference is for longer term resources ¹ Washington s Emissions Performance Standards (EPS) (WAC , effective June 19, 2008) requires new and modified baseload electric generation to meet a greenhouse gas limit of 1,100 pounds per megawatt hour (lbs/mwh). The EPS applies to all baseload electric generation for which electric utilities enter into long-term financial commitments on or after July 1, ² Engrossed Second Substitute Senate Bill 5769 provides the requirements under which PSE may enter into a long-term financial commitment with coal transition power. 9

10 Minimum proposal requirements (Exhibit B) Summary data form (Exhibit D) Excel format (return live on CD) Description of offer Capital costs, pricing and delivery Commercial offer term sheet (New!) Description of project and project status Technical and operations Fuel supply Interconnection and transmission Legal and financial Additional information for development projects Additional information for a transmission-only product Other requirements (RFP document, Part II, Section 5) List of attachments 10

11 How have the requirements changed since the 2010 RFP? Seeking sufficient proposal data to support an initial screening process (rather than all data necessary for a due diligence review) Data requests for additional information needed to perform a thorough evaluation will be sent to most promising proposals screened A list of common PSE data requests will be posted to the web at before the final RFP is filed 11

12 Term sheets Term sheets required for all proposals. See minimum requirements list in Exhibit B, Section 3.¹ Term sheets may be the basis for any Definitive Agreements; however, PSE reserves the right to modify outlined terms. Minimum requirements (as applicable): Description: structure, product, type of service, underlying facility, etc. Seller Term and delivery periods Transmission: interconnection, delivery point, ancillary services, line losses, etc. Capacity / Quantity Price Fuel supply arrangements: supplier, delivery point, etc. Operating characteristics and limits: minimum run time, maximum starts, planned outages, etc. Scheduling coordinator/ Imbalance charges ¹See also prototype term sheets for ownership agreements, gas tolling and wind PPA term sheets (exhibits H-J). Guaranteed heat rate Guaranteed availability / Volume Force majeure Credit support 12

13 Summary Data Form (Exhibit D) Streamlined form seeks high level project detail. Include a live Excel copy of the form with your electronic proposal (on CD), and a copy with your printed proposal. Please do not PDF or modify any portion of the form. What do I do if I want to submit multiple offers? Multiple offers from different resources: Submit a separate form for each resource offer. Multiple offers from same resource: Specify individual offer details in the Briefly describe offer field. 1. Contact Information 2. Offer Information 3. Resource and Delivery Primary Contact Contact Name Contact Title Name of Company Proposed Commercial Arrangement Respondent entity (Owner / Developer) Is the respondent a subsidiary or affiliate of PSE? (as defined in the All Source RFP Section II.3 under Information Requested from Respondents) Check, if yes Technology Resource Type Description of Other If Market PPA (technology unspecified) or Exchange Agreement, click here to skip ahead to the transmission section. Mailing Address Proposed commercial arrangement Briefly describe technology (make, model, number of units) City State / Province Zip Code Description of Other Office Phone Offer Capacity MW Cell Phone Briefly describe offer Facility Capacity MW Net capacity factor % Nominal Heat Rate Btu/kWh (HHV) Alternate Contact ISO conditions? Check box, or specify F feet Contact Name General Facility Information Transmission and Interconnection Contact Title Name of Company Project/Facility Name (Proposal name) City County State / Province Point of Interconnection Point of Delivery Mailing Address Project Location Transmission Provider(s) City State / Province Zip Code Project Status Office Phone Commercial Online Date Cell Phone For term agreements (PPAs, exchanges or transmission only products), Term Start Date Term End Date 13

14 So what s different about this RFP? PSE has no near-term need for renewable energy credits - renewables must be competitive with capacity resources or market This RFP is not seeking non-unit-contingent PPAs delivered to Mid-C This RFP will consider non-unit-contingent PPAs delivered to BPAT.PSEI This RFP is not seeking demand side resources An energy efficiency RFP will be issued at a later date PSE is requesting commercial term sheets for all proposals Streamlined proposal requirements and summary data form Fluid evaluation process - more overlap between screening and due diligence to support timely decision-making 14

15 Agenda Welcome and introductory remarks Chris Bevil, Manager Resource Acquisition RFP for All Generation Sources ( All Source RFP ) Aliza Seelig, Consulting Financial Analyst Schedule Resource Need Elements of the 2011 RFP solicitation RFP evaluation process Spencer Watts, Financial Analyst Evaluation process Bidders checklist and contact information 15

16 Similar RFP process with targeted improvements Proposal evaluation Step 1. Screen each proposal: Qualitative review and static quantitative analysis. Step 2. Submit data requests for most promising proposals. RFP bids due November 1, 2011 Step 3. Due diligence evaluation and risk analysis. Announce Announce short short list list Q1 Q Negotiation and further due diligence 16

17 More efficient resource deployment Screening Evaluation team Resource Acquisition Commercial & Development Quantitative Transmission & Integration Merchant PSE (as needed) Technical / Plant Operations Fuel Supply Permitting (as needed) Scope of review Fatal flaw screening of key qualitative attributes, such as: Commercial viability as proposed? Acceptable offer terms? Timing / Likely to meet COD? Development status? Transmission solution? Static quantitative analysis screening by resource type Formal data requests submitted for most favorable resources Due Diligence Phase 1 team, plus: Environmental Real Estate Power Supply Operations (Trade Floor) Credit Other (as needed) Regulatory / Legal Accounting / Finance / Tax Community / Government Relations Insurance Etc. Thorough evaluation of qualitative attributes based on evaluation criteria set forth in RFP Quantitative portfolio optimization and risk analysis Scenario analysis 17

18 Evaluation criteria help identify proposals with lowest reasonable cost and risk Strategic and financial Offer viability: project and respondent s ability to deliver Appropriate credit support or liquidated damages offered by bidder No PSE credit support required Compatibility with resource need Can be shaped to match PSE s need (gas) or resource shape matches PSE s need (wind) Firm delivery of capacity and energy to PSE s system. Matches timing of resource need; flexibility Public benefits Economic benefit to the community Local support for the project Low environmental impact Cost minimization Lower/ lowest portfolio revenue requirement while meeting capacity and RPS need Risk management Commercially-proven technology with long-term reliability Reduces PSE s risk exposure to changes in power prices, environmental policies, fuel prices, hydro generation, etc. See Exhibit A of the 2011 All Source RFP for complete evaluation criteria. 18

19 Qualitative evaluation Operating / Likely to meet proposed commercial operation date? Permit status Transmission secured? firm? Fuel supply secured? firm? Technology selected? Historical reliable operation? Renewable resources: Incentives Pricing dependent upon qualifying? Likely to meet requirements to qualify for renewable incentives? Development projects: Status of all relevant agreements Turbine Supply, Service and Maintenance, EPC Contract, BOP, interconnection, permits, site control, etc. 19

20 Quantitative screening evaluation (Step 1) Fixed costs Variable costs Capital costs Plant technical information Forced and planned outages Contract terms Portfolio Screening Model Revenue requirement ($) Levelized cost ($/MWh) Portfolio benefit ($) Portfolio benefit ratio Bid relative rankings The Portfolio Screening Model is a simple dispatch model of PSE s portfolio with the same revenue requirement calculations as the Portfolio Optimization Model described on the next slide. 20

21 Quantitative portfolio optimization evaluation (Step 3) Minimizes portfolio cost while meeting capacity need and RPS need Variable cost Plant technical information Planned and forced outages Contract terms AuroraXMP model (EPIS, Inc.) Generation Variable costs Market revenue Fixed costs Capital costs Portfolio Optimization Model Optimized portfolio Risk analysis Scenario analysis The Portfolio Optimization Model is synonymous with PSM III. For more information about this model, see Appendix I of PSE s 2011 Integrated Resource Plan ( 21

22 Agenda Welcome and introductory remarks Chris Bevil, Manager Resource Acquisition RFP for All Generation Sources ( All Source RFP ) Aliza Seelig, Consulting Financial Analyst Schedule Resource Need Elements of the 2011 RFP solicitation RFP evaluation process Spencer Watts, Financial Analyst Evaluation process Bidders checklist and contact information 22

23 Bidders checklist Confidentiality Agreement (Exhibit C) PSE may retain all proposals and related materials for four years, or until the company concludes its next General Rate Case, whichever is later. Two signed copies due to PSE October 24, 2011 at 5 p.m. Proposal Submission includes: Minimum requirements listed in Exhibit B Commercial term sheet Minimum requirements outlined in Exhibit B, Section 3 See prototype term sheets for ownership, gas tolling and wind PPAs (exhibits H-J) Summary data form (Exhibit D) Submit a hard copy with the printed proposals and unmodified Excel form on CD One bound execution copy with original signature, 4 additional bound copies, and 1 electronic copy on CD due to PSE November 1, 2011 by 5 p.m. 23

24 Summary notes Thorough proposals are needed for complete evaluation Evaluation considers qualitative and quantitative factors PSE will request additional data as needed from bidders Any updates will be posted online at Revised schedule will be posted tomorrow Revised capacity need will be posted tomorrow Updated avoided costs coming soon! 24

25 Contact information PSE Web site Questions and PowerPoint slides from today s meeting will be posted on PSE s Web site. The draft RFP is also available online. RFP contacts Aliza Seelig Consulting Financial Analyst aliza.seelig@pse.com Sheri Maynard Resource Coordinator sheri.maynard@pse.com (425)

26 Questions or comments? 26

27 Appendix 27

28 Imputed debt Rating agencies: Standard & Poor s and Moody s Add debt and interest cost to utilities with long term power purchase agreements To make a fair comparison between utilities that buy power and those that own resources Credit rating impact: Less favorable debt to capital ratio and interest coverage ratio

29 Imputed debt calculation S&P methodology Demand charge or 50% of contract payment Discount at 6.1% to PV Multiply by 25% risk factor Calculate equity offset = equity ratio * (imputed debt / (debt ratio) Cost penalty = equity offset * pre-tax ROE Declines each year of forecast as current year of contract payment rolls off

30 Imputed debt calculation S&P methodology (Exhibit C 1 Proposal Requirements, page C-16) S&P purpose is to make a fair credit rating comparison between utilities that buy power and those that own resources by imputing debt and interest cost to utilities with long term power purchase agreements PSE purpose is to make a fair financial cost comparison between contracting and owning new generation resources Illustrative imputed debt adder table 2 Contract Length 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year Adder 1 % 2 % 3 % 5 % 1 PSE s 2008 Request for Proposals from All Source Generation Sources 2 Table assumes equity ratio of 46% and return on equity of 10.1% and a 6.1% discount rate 3 Calculation based on flat, fixed price product and capacity payment 50% of total PPA payment

31 Revenue requirement - (simply stated) PSE s Revenue Requirement equals the operating expenses plus the cost of capital to finance the Company s investment Revenue Requirement is the target amount the Company is allowed to collect from customers 31

32 Definitions: Quantitative screening metrics Portfolio Benefit is the difference between the net present value portfolio revenue requirement of a proposed project (backing out a generic), and the net present value portfolio revenue requirement of the generic portfolio strategy. Positive portfolio benefit - resource yields lower costs to the portfolio than a comparable generic resource. Negative portfolio benefit - resource is more expensive than a generic resource. Levelized Cost is calculated by taking a resource s net present value revenue requirement of the 20-year analytic period with end effects, divided by the net present value generation. Levelized cost is measured on a dollar per megawatt-hour (MWh) basis. Portfolio Benefit Ratio represents the portfolio benefit divided by the net present value of the proposed project revenue requirement. The portfolio benefit ratio allows projects of different capacities to be compared by removing bias for size. This metric is most useful in comparing projects of similar technology type. 32

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