Outline. Feb 18: V.3 Impact of convergence. What is convergence? Examples of convergence. Question. Telecommunications-computing convergence

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1 Strategic Computing and Communications Technology CS 294, EE 290X, IS 290, BA 296 Spring 98 Feb 18: V.3 Impact of convergence by David G. Messerschmitt Outline What is convergence? What convergence's are occurring? Impact on the industries affected 2 What is convergence? It is not diversification It is when two industries products formerly were not, but have become (from the customer s perspective), either complementary (dependent) or competitive (overlapping) 3 Examples of convergence Complementary: Computing and Entertainment and storage and networking Competitive: Consumer electronics and /computing Telephony and cable television Internet and Information appliance and PC 4 Can you think of other examples of convergence: Complementary? Competitive? Telecommunications-computing convergence Infrastructure complementary: Data, audio, video in ATM network Data, audio, video in desktop computer Applications competitive: Home banking by DTMF and voice response Home banking by desktop computer and modem or Internet 5 6

2 Goal Let s understand the computer/ convergence better Convergence is a result of the networking of computers, so let s presume that Types of social applications Connectivity: : from one user to other users who are known : one user publishes information without knowing who will access it Temporal: : users have to participate simultaneously : users participate at different times 7 8 -deferred example -immediate examples Shared whiteboard World-wide web Shared editor 9 10 Other direct Examples Telephony Video conferencing voic (immediate) video-on-demand Facsimile (deferred) 11 12

3 What telecom has emphasized Is there a pattern? voice mail video on demand Telecommunications has emphasized streaming media Computing has emphasized bursty or sporadic media The historical distinctions are technology based, not application based Types of user groups supported by social applications Interacting users Interacting users Collaborating users Community Citizenry Meetings: Correspondence: voic Collaborating users Community embedded interactions embedded interactions GroupWare: calendar/scheduling joint authoring Town meeting: chatroom Special-interest publication: Town meeting: listserv Special-interest publication: 17 18

4 Citizenry immediate -deferred Peer-to-peer Mass publication: Client/server Server Computing Telecom From stovepipe to stratification: Unbundling: Terminal equipment (carterphone) Poles/conduits Loops Next? Intelligence moves to PC/terminal Service provider loses control of applications Physical/network layer becomes commodity when hidden by IP spanning layer (ATM, Ethernet, etc.) 21 Internet: major new opportunity or major competitor? Becomes competitive with telephone network Particularly an issue with international calls Parts of existing investment stranded: Circuit switches and multiplexes Not physical plant 22 Can you draw parallels between: Impact of Internet of industry Impact of PC on computer industry Broadband Internet access: Competition between telephone and CATV Wireless Internet access: Competition among stovepipe networks (I.e. Metricom), satellite, and digital cellular 23 24

5 Nomadic users: access network from different locations public telephone is the nomadic access How do you think nomadic Internet access infrastructure will arise? computing Emphasis on portability and interoperability across networks: Standardization Middleware (CORBA, Java, etc.) Consortia, collaboration, etc Can you name some standards bodies newly formed because of the networking of computing? Similarly, can you name some new partnerships and consortia? 27 New applications of networked computing Social applications: Economics quite different (network effects) Attention of policy makers (privacy, content filtering, encryption, universal service, etc.) Pressure for regulation Enterprise and cross-enterprise applications Business process engineering EDI, e-money management, e-commerce, etc Vulnerability, security become vital issues 28 Summary Computer industry looks much more like (standardization) Telecommunications looks much more like computing (competition, stratification) Will convergence companies emerge? Old model around equipment: AT&T/NCR and IBM/Rolm New model around operations: IBM as network provider 29 In the new world of converged computing/, what corporate mergers might make sense? 30