Hidden Impacts of Producibility on System Affordability and Design- Manufacturing Interdependence

Transcription

1 Hidden Impacts of Producibility on Affordability and - Manufacturing Interdependence NDIA s Engineering Conference October 26, 2011 Dr. Al Sanders Chairman NDIA AMEC Committee

2 AMEC Charter & Mission Move Manufacturing to the Left Advanced Manufacturing AMEC Engineering Capabilities Modeling & Simulation New Methodologies

3 AMEC M&S White Paper Based on 18 month study on current DFM practices* Analytical producibility analysis tools lacking Many producibility issues inadvertently designed-in Current commercial DFM analysis tools inadequate Manufacturing M&S a critical missing research area Roadmap development underway for key focus areas s engineering trade study and design methodologies integration, assembly, and test modeling Enterprise level supply chain design and analysis methods Electrical, mechanical, and assembly yield modeling Quantitative DFX analyses including complexity characterization Life cycle cost modeling including uncertainty and risk impact *NDIA Manufacturing Division White Paper, 21 st Century Manufacturing Modeling & Simulation Research and Investment Needs, Released May 2011.

4 Why Focus on Producibility? Production cost components Direct material and labor costs Factory overhead/burden costs Traditional Cost Focus Here Producer vs. user LCC drivers Low yield & process inefficiencies Manufacturing process complexity Excessive quality specs/controls Product cost reduction strategies Post-NPI value engineering Lean out existing processes New material/process technologies Hidden Costs of Producibility Inadvertently ed-in Producibility Issues Drive Significant Hidden Costs

5 -Manuf Interdependence Early design decisions lock-in cost Trade studies focus on performance Exotic materials used to save weight thrown across the globe Moving manufacturing to the left Concurrent engineering teams Early supplier involvement for manufacturing (DFM) Quantitative DFM tools lacking Manufacturing knowledge mostly tacit High level DFM guidelines/checklists Rule-based CAD/CAM occurs too late Cumulative Life Cycle Cost 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 8% Concept 70% Customer & Operational Needs Analysis Mature Tools Available Emerging Capability Void in Capability Cost Commited 15% 85% 20% 95% 3-6X X X Lean Analyses Production, Deployment, & Support Relative Cost to Make Changes 100% From INCOSE s 50% Engineering Handbook, 2006 Develop Production Operations QFD Analyses Identify Improvement Opportinies Understand Objectives and Constraints CAM Simulations Concept & Technology Development Evaluate Alternatives and Quantify Risks Test, Evaluation, & Validation TRL/MRL Maturity Optimize and Validate Product Offering CAD Based DFM Planning & Specification Trade Studies Feature Based DFM Detail & Development Component Preliminary Actual Funds Spent M&S Enabler to Move Manufacturing Left

6 Role of s Engineering Engineering Domain Producibility Requirements Undefined Customer Needs Architectures not Analyzed for Producibility Requirements Analysis Architecture Validation Verification Integration and Test Engineered Operational Testing Affordability Goals not Met Integration Issues Uncovered HW & SW Engineering Domain Sub- Preliminary Decomposition & Definition to Specs Solely Perf Based DFM Analyses Performed for First Time Item Detailed Verification Verification Item Manufacturing Item Inspection and Test Sub- Integration and Test Manufacturing Processes can t meet Tolerances Excessive Quality Controls Implemented Integration & Verification Manufacturing Domain It All Starts with Requirements.

7 Current Model-Based Approaches s Eng Engineering Manufacturing User Needs Requirements Analysis Conceptual Preliminary CAE/CAD/CAM Based Test & Evaluation Production & Deployment Operations & Sustainment MBSE MBE MBM Virtual Wall Virtual Wall Function Centric Geometry Centric Operation Centric Same Problems now Happen Virtually

8 Current State M&S-Enabled Concurrent Eng s Eng Engineering Manufacturing User Needs Requirements Analysis Conceptual Preliminary CAE/CAD/CAM Based Test & Evaluation Production & Deployment Operations & Sustainment MBSE MBE MBM Function Centric Virtual Wall Geometry Centric Virtual Wall Operation Centric Future State Engineering User Needs M&S-Based Trade Studies Producer Needs Manufacturing Requirements Analysis M&S Requirements Analysis Transforming the Space Fit-Form-Function-Operation Centric Virtual World Complex & Development Conceptual Conceptual Preliminary Preliminary Detail Optimization M&S M&S M&S M&S Detail Optimization Manufacturing Enterprise & Development Test & Evaluation Test & Evaluation Physical World Production & Deployment MBSE MBE MBM Re-Engineering & Manufacturing Operations & Sustainment

9 Role of Producibility in Trade Space Complex and Development User Needs Size Weight Power Efficiency Reliability Maintainability Operability.. User LCC Need to Balance and $ Marketing Trade Off Numerous Producibility Requirements Conflicting Affordability Requirements Producer Needs Cost Quality Delivery Inventory Reusability Serviceability Upgradeability.. Producer LCC Manufacturing Enterprise and Development Producibility a Critical x Driving the Big Y of Affordability

10 Reliability Theory Reliability Engineering Discipline Reliability: Probability that a device will perform its intended function during a specified period of time under stated conditions. Analytical Basis RAMS Reliability Availability Maintainability Safety Trade Off Evaluations Physics of Failure Analysis Failure Rate (l) Infant Mortality Period Useful Life Physics-Based Failure Prediction Constant Failure Rate Period Wear-out Failure Period Modeling Relationships A INPUT B OUTPUT C Maintainability MCT (Hours) Existing A i = A i = Trade Space A i = Configuration A i Existing Alternative Alternative Alternative MTBF M CT INPUT A B C OUTPUT Reliability MTBF (Hours) Focus is Early Detection of Failure Modes

11 Merriam-Webster.com What About Producibility? Air Force Research Lab Producibility: A design characteristic which allows economical fabrication, assembly, inspection, and testing of an item using available manufacturing techniques. The relative ease of manufacture of an item or system. BusinessDictionary.com Producibility: Ease of manufacturing an item (or a group of items) in large enough quantities. It depends on the characteristics and design features of the item that enable its economical fabrication, assembly, and inspection or testing by using existing or available technology. Defense Acquisition University Producibility: The measure of relative ease of manufacturing a product. The product should be easily and economically fabricated, assembled, inspected, and tested with high quality on the first attempt that meets performance thresholds. Analytical Basis needed for Producibility

12 State-of-the-Art DFMA Analysis Stapler Reduce part counts Standardize components Simplify assembly operations As Is 29 Total Parts Assy Time 204 sec Electric Wok To Be 11 Total Parts Assy Time 88 sec As Is 33 Total Parts Assy Time 233 sec To Be 13 Total Parts Assy Time 91 sec Source: R.B. Stone et. al, A Product Architecture-Based Conceptual DFA Technique, Studies, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp , May Simple DFMA Approaches Work for Simple Products

13 A&D Producibility Analysis Needs Aerospace producibility challenges Maximum functionality in smallest package Highly 3-D shapes with intricate features Exotic hard to machine/fabricate materials Tightly controlled dimensions & tolerances Producibility is a design characteristic Ease and economy of making item(s) at rate Drives manufacturing inefficiencies and risk F(fit, form, function, complexity, capability,..) Need quantitative analytical design tools Make hidden factory costs & risks visible Shape design vs. verify rule adherence M&S Enabler for Producibility Prediction

14 Manufacturing Paradigm Shifts Manufacturing is more than a constraint on design Need to define, allocate, and flow down producibility rqmts Conflicting user vs. producer needs require trade-offs Producibility the kingpin of system affordability and cost for manufacturing needs to become a science Analytical basis needed for producibility similar to reliability attributes drive manufacturing complexity & yield fallout Methods needed to balance assembly vs. part complexity integration and test are now part of manufacturing Encompasses mechanical, electrical, and software disciplines Extensive testing currently used to detect and contain defects Bulk of component producibility problems discovered here. Scope of Manufacturing has Changed

15 Summary and Conclusion Producibility issues drive significant hidden factory costs Neglected ility due to lack of analytical predictive tools M&S capabilities needed to move manufacturing to the left Primary lever to attack affordability during early design Advanced manufacturing M&S a critical research area Quantitative product-centric analyses to guide design decisions Supply chain analysis tools to predict industrial base behavior methods that integrate manufacturing into trade space Vision is to create a virtual manufacturing environment Fusion of marketing, engineering, & manufacturing disciplines Manufacturing enterprise designed in parallel to the product Producibility predicted, optimized, and traded as design evolves

16 Thank You Questions? Dr. Al Sanders Honeywell Aerospace