Deploying autonomous vehicles Commercial considerations and urban mobility scenarios

Transcription

1 Deploying autonomous vehicles Commercial considerations and urban mobility scenarios Peter Fuß Senior Advisory Partner Automotive GSA June 2014

2 AVs are coming but through controlled deployment in an integrated urban mobility ecosystem.. Are stakeholders prepared for the technological, commercial and governance complexities? Trendicators 95% 8th 2x 6.3 Billion road accidents caused due to human error leading cause of death globally: Road accidents increase in delay hours due to congestion by 2050 Urban dwellers accounting for 70% of population by years years Beyond 20 years Controlled, AV-only environments Moderate level of automation Low to medium speeds Less restricted environments High level of automation Medium to high speeds Large, connected vehicle networks; no constraints On demand mobility & fleet services Customized consumer AVs Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Factiva, Navigant Research, Cnet.com, EY analysis Page 2 Autonomous Vehicles June 2014

3 Agenda Key considerations for industry participants to become competitive in the AV space 1 Case for AVs, levels of autonomy, likely AV deployment scenarios, 3 2 Benefits and challenges of AV Deployment, role of government Page 3 Autonomous Vehicles June 2014

4 Vehicles with varying levels of autonomous driving capability will coexist over the next few decades, and therefore different deployment scenarios will be necessary Levels of autonomy Low L0 L1 L2 L3 L4 High Driver control Vehicle control Connectivity* Source: EY analysis * Connectivity includes vehicle-to-device, vehicle-to-vehicle, vehicle-to-infrastructure, and vehicle-to-home Page 4 Autonomous Vehicles June 2014

5 AVs to be deployed in controlled environment initially as benefits outweigh costs, and concerns addressed, AV landscape will evolve and expand to connected highways, urban centers, public AV transportation 1 Self-parking structures/lots Control shifts from Driver to the Vehicle across scenarios 2 Dedicated AV highway lanes 3 Connected urban centers 4 Public AV transportation 5 Expanded AV highways 6 Fully AV ecosystem Page 5 Autonomous Vehicles June 2014

6 The transformation to automated driving offers many benefits Traffic safety Fuel consumption Accident Cost Benefits Traffic flow Vehicle sharing Transport for all Vehicles per family Page 6 Autonomous Vehicles June 2014

7 however, the road to autonomous driving is not without its challenges Privacy Cost Data quality Infrastructure Challenges Security Insurance Liability Regulation Page 7 Autonomous Vehicles June 2014

8 A collaborative eco-system is needed to address a range of driver s mobility requirements beyond AVs Trendicators OEMs % of Global vehicle sales attributed to AVs 4% 41% 75% IT/Telecom companies What the driver/buyer wants? Tier-1-2 suppliers Experience Safety 85% CAGR of AV sales for three largest markets (North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific) between MB/sec data/sec gathered by fully functioning AV Local Governments Privacy / Security Efficiency Economical Insurance companies 3rd party providers Page 8 Autonomous Vehicles June 2014

9 Government will need to play a key role in facilitating the introduction and adopting of AVs, through suitable regulations, incentives and requisite infrastructure development Defining accountability and liability Determining appropriate standards for security and data privacy Creating a roadmap to help bring together the various autonomous vehicle scenarios Driver training/ licensing requirements Encourage common legislation standards across geographies Page 9 Autonomous Vehicles June 2014

10 Commercial deployment of AVs presents significant changes to the automotive sector with far reaching implications and considerations for stakeholders across the value chain Integrated mobility providers Vehicle OEMs Strategic considerations Dealer/ retail network AV ecosystem stakeholders Suppliers Need to balance the benefits and challenges through Operating and performance considerations Government/ regulatory bodies Technology/ telecom companies Investment and capital considerations Page 10 Autonomous Vehicles June 2014

11 Thank you for your attention! Ernst & GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft Mergenthalerallee Eschborn Germany Peter Fuß Senior Advisory Partner Automotive GSA Phone Mobile Fax peter.fuss@de.ey.com EY Wir bewegen nachhaltig Page 11 Autonomous Vehicles June 2014

12 EY Assurance Tax Transactions Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. How EY s Global Automotive Center can help your business The global recession reset the automotive sector landscape. As the sector recovers, automotive companies across the value chain must focus on profitable and sustainable growth, financial and operational stability, investments in new technologies and seizing opportunities in high-growth markets. If you lead an automotive business, you need to anticipate trends, identify implications and make informed decisions that support your business goals. Our Global Automotive Center enables our worldwide network of more than 7,000 sector-focused assurance, tax, transaction and advisory professionals to share powerful insights and deep sector knowledge with businesses like yours. These insights, combined with our technical experience in every major global automotive market, will help you to accelerate strategies and improve performance. Whichever segment of the automotive sector you are in from component suppliers to commercial or light vehicle manufacturers or retailers we can provide the insights you need to succeed EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. XXXXXX CSG/GSC2014/ ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com