AHUP Redesign. Leif Magnuson, PG&E Build it Green Staff

Transcription

1 AHUP Redesign Leif Magnuson, PG&E Build it Green Staff

2 Meeting Agenda Topics AHUP Results Role of Home Retrofits in Meeting State Goals Proposed Program Redesign and Discussion High Performance HVAC Installation Standards Mini-training Residential Pay for Performance Program Update

3 AHUP Results

4 Cost Cost Effectiveness: Background Brief Summary Overview California Standard Practice Manual 1 defines cost effectiveness tests Each Test measures cost effectiveness through a different perspective California applies Dual Test for Energy Efficiency: TRC and PAC Total Resource Costs (TRC) test = Benefits vs. costs for the Utility + Customers Program Administrator (PAC) = Benefits vs. costs for the Utility TRC TRC Benefits Costs Avoided Costs from Electricity and Gas Savings Admin Marketing Implementation Incentives to + EM&V Non-Resource ESPI free riders Measure costs incurred by non-free riders Draft: for discussion purposes only 1 _Electricity_and_Natural_Gas/CPUC_STANDARD_PRACTICE_MANUAL.pdf 4

5 Avoided Cost Trends: Natural Gas Prices Low natural gas prices limit TRC and PAC avoided costs. Natural gas prices have fallen consistently since Gas costs are forecasted to increase over the next two decades. 1 Other factors such as losses and transmission costs, and avoided GHG are included in the natural gas avoided costs. Draft: for discussion purposes only 1 Avoided Costs 2017 Interim Update, Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc

6 Components of Electric Avoided Costs High capacity and T&D costs during summer peak hours drive high evening avoided costs. Mid-day savings decreasing in value Draft: for discussion purposes only CZ4 shown; ftp://ftp.cpuc.ca.gov/gopher-data/energy_division/energyefficiency/costeffectiveness/acc_2018_v1f.xlsb 6

7 Looking toward the Future: EE as a Reliable DER Targeting (& rewarding) the zz Most Valuable Savings Average Net Load in California, 2015 Advanced Home Upgrade Savings, 2015 Average Net Load by Select Months, 2015 from: Revisiting the California Duck Curve: An Exploration of Its Existence, Impact, and Migration Potential. ScottMadden Management Consultants, Total kwh savings/hour Draft: for discussion purposes only NB. Sept 1, 2015 was statewide peak day. Many days in Sept were in 90s and it was above 100 F on several days that month in CZ12 Hour 2015 Advanced Home Upgrade program data 7

8 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign Goals: 1. Reduce overall customer incentive by 50% (25% for HPHI projects) to align more closely with actual energy savings (average realization rates) by January 1, Increase software realization rates to 80% electric and 80% gas from current realization rates of 21% electric and 29% gas by November 1, Increase average per home energy savings to 1,200 kwh and 120 therms from 564kWh and 67 therms now by November 1, Ensure future PG&E program participation for high performing contractors

9 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign Proposed Tactics and Schedule: Energy Savings Incentive + Percent Improvement Percent Improvement Kicker = Total Incentive Goal 1: Reduce overall customer incentive by 50% (25% for HPHI projects) to align more closely with actual energy savings 10% $550 15% $850 20% $1,150 Proposed Tactic: Reduce customer incentives by 50% by applying 0.5 modifier (0.75 for HPHI projects) to the current incentive structure by 1/1/2019 $0.75/kWh $2.00/therm + 25% $1,450 30% $2,500 35% $3,000 40% $3,500 = Total Incentive (x 0.5) 45%+ $4,000

10 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign Program Approved Energy Modeling Software

11 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign Goal 2: Increase software realization rates to 80% electric and 80% gas from current realization rates of 21% electric and 29% gas by 11/1/2019 Proposed Schedule and Tactics: 11/1/2018 All energy-models submitted must be calibrated to customer bill data (calibration provided by BIG) via PG&E s Share My Data at build-it-green-portal.webflow.io 12/1/2018 All projects with uncalibrated energy-models must be Post-Install Approved or will be canceled and would need to be resubmitted as calibrated energy-modeled projects 11/1/2019 Pay customers based on each contractor s average realization rate (i.e., adjust upfront incentive paid to customer above or below 50%, tied to each contractor s realization rate) 6/1/ Contractor must have a minimum 50% Realization Rate or they will be dropped from program

12 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign Proposed Option to Meet Goal 2 : Allow use of more conservative deemed savings based customer incentive using HU Calc Tool to align closer to actual energy savings (3 measures minimum) for contractors that would prefer not to use energy modeling software Proposed Option Incentive: Reduce customer incentives by 50% for gas by applying 0.5 modifier to the current incentive structure by 1/1/2019 (no reduction on electrical savings) Energy Savings Incentive $0.75/kWh $2.00/therm + Percent Improvement + 10% $550 15% $850 20% $1,150 25% $1,450 30% $2,500 35% $3,000 40% $3,500 45%+ $4,000 Percent Improvement Kicker = Total Incentive = Total Incentive (therms x 0.5 / kwh x 1.0)

13 2016 HUP Results

14 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign Home Upgrade Calculator Tool

15 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign Proposed Tactics and Schedule: Goal 3: Increase average per home energy savings to 1,200 kwh and 120 therms from 564kWh and 67 therms now by 11/1/2019 Proposed Tactics: 10/1/2018 Provide contractor incentive of $1,200 to meet verified High Performance HVAC Installation (HPHI) standards 10/1/2018 Provide expert trainers and training cost match for each contractor to meet HPHI standards (50:50 cost match, up to $4K maximum per contractor) 10/1/ Provide quarterly energy savings feedback and realization rates to contractors (initial feedback via following this forum next week)

16 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign High Performance HVAC Installation (HPHI) standards ALL SYSTEMS REQUIRE THAT ACCA MANUAL J, D, S AND T DESIGN IS PERFORMED AND DOCUMENTED

17 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign HPHI Incentive Measure Requirements Training and mentoring on expectations for measurement and data-collection Must meet all seven (7) system-design and efficiency specifications outlined in the RETROFIT PERFORMANCE LEVELS FOR HIGH PERFORMANCE HVAC INSTALLATION document at HomeUpgrade.org on each HPHI project Must be included as a provided service line-item (with measure cost, if applicable) in customer signed contract/scope of work Homes with existing AC are the primary target if you re interested in targeting furnaceonly homes, contact Build It Green before you submit as an HPHI project

18 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign HPHI Incentive Measure Requirements HPHI measure selected as part of existing AHU project (if applicable) in order to claim $1,200 per project incentive 7 specifications verified by Build It Green (BIG) at 100% Desktop QA (EER Calculator, etc.) rate 100% FQC by BIG on first 3 HPHI projects, then 5% FQC if meeting all 7 HPHI specifications routinely HPHI measure is approved when BIG QA and/or FQC is passed, so plan for extra time on the first few projects (manage customer expectations accordingly)

19 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign HPHI Incentive Measure Requirements HPHI training is a significant time-commitment on the part of your sales and installation staff and crew-lead (2-5 days minimum, depending on staff role). Training must be completed prior to rebate application submission. Failure to observe this requirement can result in significant delay in processing rebate or the need to cancel and resubmit without the HPHI measure. Please do not sell this measure unless your company has been trained (manage customer expectations accordingly). Next Step (if interested): Contact Build It Green at or info@homeupgrade.org to schedule consultation and on-boarding

20 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign Goal 4: Ensure future PG&E program participation for high performing contractors Proposed Schedule and Tactics: 6/1/ Publish contractor average energy savings per home and quintile ranking (e.g., top 20% high performers based on Realization Rates and absolute energy savings amount) 6/1/ Allow contractors to use their program ranking and average energy savings values in their marketing materials 6/1/ Transition program to P4P or continue AHUP if the program meets cost effectiveness requirements (measured by the Total Resource Cost) and/or other PG&E goals like high savings during the peak electricity use period.

21 Advanced Home Upgrade Program Redesign - Summary Incentives Reduced. Customer incentives will be reduced by 50% for site savings percentage tiers, kwh and terms automatically on 1/1/19. AHU incentive application process is unchanged Calibrate the software models to the customer s energy use to increase actual savings (80% by 11/1/19). Get customer energy usage data via PG&E s Share My Data (calibration available after 10/1/18) OR use the Home Upgrade Calculator Tool Contractors are eligible for a $1,200 incentive for meeting HPHI standards after 10/1/2018 Contractors eligible for a 50:50 cost match up to $4,000/contractor for HPHI training after 10/1/2018

22 What is Res Pay for Performance (P4P)? Aggregator

23 Unlimited Interventions Unparalleled flexibility to pursue a range of improvements and activities over time to achieve residents savings goals Retrofit Whole House HVAC Lighting Outdoor/Pool Deck Operational Smart Thermostats Home Energy Management Systems Smart Appliances Behavioral Homeowner Incentives Demand Response Other specially designed programs 23

24 Payable Energy Savings Pre/post analytics Savings = pre usage billing data minus post (weather normalized) Each participating home is analyzed then summed together to determine portfolio performance. PG&E pays each aggregator for their total savings. Determined at the meter via weather normalized pre/post billing analysis Initial Customer Intervention Monthly Payments Baseline Participation Period Continued Savings Measurement Pre-Engagement Year 1 Post-Engagement Year 2 Post-Engagement Year 3 Post-Engagement 12 months 0-2 months 12 months 24 months 36 months 24

25 How EE can be Competitive as a DER* Drivers Existing Conditions Transition Plan Future State SB350 AB802 DER RFOs Implementers have no insight on their savings Dashboards to provide Implementers insight on savings from our existing programs Implementers are confident when, where and how much savings they can reliably deliver at a competitive cost Current incentives not aligned with metered energy savings P4P Programs that emphasize and reward savings at the meter EE competes successfully in DER RFOs due to track record EE not seen as a reliable DER (history of deemed savings) *Distributed Energy Resource EE gains recognition for delivering on metered savings EE delivers savings as a reliable DER 25

26 BIG Proposal Highlights Seal Ducts Smart T-Stat High Efficiency AC 26

27 HEA Proposal Highlights Energy Coach 27

28 Franklin Proposal Highlights Online home energy assessment. Low cost self-install smart thermostat. $40 co-pay. Feebased smart thermostat installation - if requested. No cost home energy products kit. Points and rewards for verified installations (upload photos). Rewards program to encourage energy saving goal setting, goal attainment, energy efficiency product installation, and equipment upgrades. Rebates on installed HVAC related measures and pool pumps. HVAC rebates paid by manufacturers other contractor installed measure rebates paid by program subcontractor and/or manufacturer/service provider. 28

29 Conclusion PG&E is committed to supporting the Home Performance Industry. The extent to which PG&E can do so depends on the energy savings achieved and whether AHUP can achieve a TRC of 1.0 or greater. The AHUP TRC is currently 0.4. If we can get above 1.0 by late 2019 with the new program redesign, then PG&E may continue to support the new program redesign. All Res P4P programs currently have a TRC above 1.0. Three of the four P4P Implementers will use HVAC and Home Performance contractors to help them meet their program goals. These P4P programs will run for at least three more years.

30 Thank You Questions: Build It Green at or

31 Program Build Demand in Enhancements the Build Demand in the Streamline Contractor Market Pilot Launch Homeowner Market Full Launch ARRA Rebates, Financing and Marketing 2-4 unit bldgs. Increased AHU Rebates to $4,500 Replaced Basic with Home Upgrade Propane customers Removed AHU Incentive cap Pool pumps in AHU Windows in HU Increase HU Incentive to $3,000 HU Incentives in $100 increments Launch Pay for Performance Programs Fuel switching? Homeowner Incentive based on Actual Savings Processes Continuous Improvements Home Upgrade Portal Advanced Home Upgrade Portal Support Contractors Key account reps Marketing Concierge Mentoring New Software Marketing Pilot Sunset Home Upgrade Cut Homeowner Incentive Training High Performing Contractor Training & Incentives Increase Savings Field QC HERs Duct Test CalTRACK HVAC, Software and Energy Savings Performance Targets