Q&A: What Oracle's Acquisition of BEA Systems Means to Me

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1 Research Publication Date: 4 March 2008 ID Number: G Q&A: What Oracle's Acquisition of BEA Systems Means to Me Massimo Pezzini, Yefim V. Natis, Fabrizio Biscotti, Gene Phifer Oracle's proposed acquisition of BEA Systems will have a profound impact on the application infrastructure and middleware market. However, it also poses challenges to Oracle and will force BEA's customers to reassess their strategies. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

2 ANALYSIS Why is Oracle going to buy BEA Systems? There are several motivators for Oracle's planned purchase of BEA Systems. Market share: According to Gartner Dataquest, in 2006, BEA Systems was the secondlargest vendor in the portal, process and middleware (PPMW) market (which includes license and maintenance revenue for application servers, portal products, enterprise service buses [ESBs], business process management suites [BPMSs], transactionprocessing monitors [TPMs], message-oriented middleware [MOM] and other segments). Oracle was a fast-growing third-place vendor in this market. Postacquisition, Oracle could potentially more than double its market share and could emerge as the most powerful challenger to the established leader, IBM. Sales and support organization: To sustain the dramatic growth of its PPMW business during the past five years (45% in 2006), Oracle had to hire a large number of sales executives and support engineers. Skilled middleware specialists are still a scarce commodity. Through the acquisition of BEA Systems, Oracle would dramatically increase its sales and support capacity almost overnight. Customer base and maintenance revenue: Maintenance from a large and loyal client base accounted for approximately 47% of BEA's total revenue in 2006 (about $1.4 billion). A significant portion of the installed base is in the hard-to-penetrate and IBMdominated space of high-end, business-critical applications in the world's largest organizations. Entry into the Chinese market: Historically, BEA Systems has had a strong customer base in the fast-growing Chinese market, where Oracle has had only a marginal presence. Expanded partnerships: BEA Systems has a large network of system integrators and independent software vendor partners. WebLogic Server is the most widely supported Java Platform, Enterprise Edition (Java EE) application server, along with IBM's WebSphere and Red Hat's JBoss. Oracle Application Server, although increasingly popular, is adopted less extensively by third parties. Product portfolio: Oracle's technology credibility at the high end would be strengthened, given the reputation of BEA Systems' products as business-critical application enablers. What will the impact be of this acquisition in the ongoing battle with SAP for domination in the packaged business application market? The acquisition of BEA Systems will reinforce Oracle's strategy to become one of the top application-independent PPMW market leaders, while SAP remains focused on only supporting application users. Although this vision gives Oracle greater strength in the software industry wars, the deal will have a minimal impact on the ongoing Oracle/SAP fight in packaged applications. SAP NetWeaver, SAP's application infrastructure stack, is the foundation platform for SAP's applications, much as Oracle Fusion Middleware (OFM) is the underpinning for Oracle Fusion Applications. SAP NetWeaver is adopted widely by SAP's installed base, but it is rarely Publication Date: 4 March 2008/ID Number: G Page 2 of 7

3 considered by users that are nonstrategically committed to SAP's applications. Oracle's moreopen and now-richer stack will benefit indirectly its application business, because it will be preferred by buyers that want a "not too proprietary" infrastructure for their packaged applications. This, however, will not do significant harm to SAP, whose middleware business was about $50 million in How will Oracle's purchase of BEA Systems change the overall competitive scenario in the market? In the $11.5 billion PPMW market (2006 data), IBM is, by far, the market leader, with a 32% market share. The combined market share of Oracle/BEA Systems would be second, at about 19%. IBM is overwhelmingly dominant only in two large but slow-growing "legacy" segments: TPMs (comprising IBM's Customer Information Control System, Information Management System [IMS] and Transaction Processing Facility [TPF], as well as the BEA Tuxedo) and MOM (where IBM's WebSphere MQ commands a 75% market share and BEA is nearly absent). The remaining market (about $ 9.4 billion) which includes the fastest-growing segments, such as ESB, BPMSs and service-oriented architecture governance is much more balanced. In this subset of the market, IBM has a 20% market share, and Oracle/BEA Systems would have the potential of leadership, with about a 22% share. Post-acquisition, the market will be structured as follows: A few large generalist players offering PPMW technology as part of a much wider portfolio of products and services: IBM, Microsoft, Oracle and, to a certain extent, SAP and Sun Microsystems A few midsize PPMW suite vendors present in multiple segments with total revenue (PPMW and other software, such as database management systems, development tools and others) in the $400 million to $900 million range: Progress Software, Software AG and Tibco Software A myriad of small PPMW specialists playing in one or more segments and with total revenue of less than $150 million The market will continue consolidating during the next 12 to 18 months. Generalist players will buy midsize companies to try to keep Oracle at bay, and midsize PPMW suite vendors will acquire specialists to strengthen their positions and compete more effectively with the largest players. However, the independent PPMW vendor space will never be empty. These vendors answer responsively to real market needs for products capable of comfortably playing in heterogeneous environments and for suppliers strategically independent from any software megavendor. What will the impact of Oracle's purchase of BEA Systems be on companies such as Progress Software, Tibco Software and Software AG? The deal is expected to close by mid Until then, and for several months after, all PPMW players will try to leverage the inevitable uncertainty to woo clients and partners away from BEA and possibly Oracle. However, in the longer term, Oracle (if the acquisition is managed properly) will emerge as a formidable competitor, especially in its wide application installed base. Yet, PPMW players will have a chance to survive and thrive if they can provide superior technology, innovation and a proven ability to play equally well in combination with megavendors' applications and infrastructures. Publication Date: 4 March 2008/ID Number: G Page 3 of 7

4 Most likely, many PPMW vendors will enter a phase of extensive acquisitions to strengthen their positions (and avoid consolidation) and to extend their technology portfolios (to cover emerging opportunities, such as business to business, cloud computing, extreme transaction processing, complex-event processing and software as a service). However, these vendors may weaken their positions, if the acquisitions aren't carefully managed. What will happen to BEA Systems' products? Will they be integrated in OFM? Oracle's and BEA Systems' product portfolios overlap in areas such as application servers, portal products, ESB, business process management technology and several others. However, BEA Systems' products generally are known for their technical quality and reliability, and there are areas where they can complement Oracle's offerings. Therefore, Oracle likely will split BEA's products into three categories: Cash generators: These are BEA Systems products with a massive installed-base that generates abundant maintenance revenue. Oracle will provide "unlimited support" and incremental enhancements and evolution for cash generators, although they may not be strategically integrated into the OFM stack and in some cases may no longer be sold proactively. However, Oracle will provide coexistence and interoperability with OFM to enable cross-selling opportunities. BEA products in the cash generators category may include WebLogic Server (Java EE), Tuxedo (TPM) and possibly WebLogic Integration and the portal offering (WebLogic Portal and AquaLogic User Interaction, formerly under Plumtree Software). Survivors: BEA Systems' products that can complement OFM by providing features and technologies not supported by Oracle. They will be integrated strategically in OFM and will continue to be sold proactively by Oracle. However, their road maps may deviate from BEA's original plans, and the products may be reworked substantially to plug into OFM, at times creating backward-compatibility problems. Survivors may include products such as WebLogic Server, AquaLogic Enterprise Repository (formerly under Flashline), AquaLogic Data Services Platform, AquaLogic BPMS, JRockit (BEA Systems' proprietary Java Virtual Machine in its various embodiments: LiquidVM and WebLogic Real Time) and perhaps other products, such as AquaLogic Enterprise Security, AquaLogic Service Bus, elements of AquaLogic PEP (a suite of Web 2.0 enablers) and the still-in-the-making Genesis application-platforms-as-a-serviceenabling product. "Indeterminate:" BEA Systems' products with a small or minimal installed base overlapping with strategic OFM products. Users of these products will be encouraged to migrate to equivalent OFM offerings, although, for some time, Oracle still will offer support and interoperability with OFM. Indeterminate products may include WebLogic Event Server, WebLogic RFID, Workshop, AquaLogic Commerce Services, AquaLogic Service Bus, AquaLogic PEP and AquaLogic Enterprise Security. In some areas, both vendors' strategies are in transition, and defining a clear road map will not prove easy for Oracle. For user interactions, BEA provides two portal products (WebLogic Portal and AquaLogic User Interaction) and the new AquaLogic PEP, whereas Oracle features Oracle Portal and the more recent WebCenter technology, in part overlapping with AquaLogic PEP. Another problematic area is business process management technology, where Oracle has its BPEL Process Manager and BEA provides AquaLogic BPMS. They are partially complementary, but their integration will require time and effort given their different architectural foundations. Publication Date: 4 March 2008/ID Number: G Page 4 of 7

5 Oracle is not likely to explicitly tag BEA's products as "cash generators," "survivors" or "indeterminate" (or equivalent euphemisms), but Gartner expects Oracle to pledge unlimited support for the BEA portfolio as it did with PeopleSoft, JD Edwards, Siebel and the other packaged applications Oracle acquired. Users can obtain a realistic perspective on Oracle's strategy by looking at the level of integration of BEA products in the OFM stack and at the level of support for the products added to Oracle's Application Integration Architecture, the upcoming Oracle Fusion Applications and vertical-specific offerings. BEA (and Oracle) products not explicitly incorporated into any of these strategies are likely to be dead ends. What should BEA Systems' customers and those interested in BEA products do? First, current and prospective customers should assess whether the BEA Systems products they are considering are cash generators, survivors or indeterminate (the previously discussed examples are Gartner predictions and are tentative even if we currently assess a product to fall into one of these categories, its placement may change) as the basis for their risk analyses. Cash generators are low-risk and can be adopted safely for new projects. Oracle will continue to support them for the next five years, although some (such as Tuxedo) possibly will evolve only marginally. Survivors are medium-risk and can be adopted for new projects, but users should anticipate possible compatibility issues when migrating to new, OFM-enabled versions. Thus, users should put support or transition provisions in their BEA contracts, if they cannot wait for the integration road map to be disclosed. Indeterminate products are potentially high-risk because their future is not assured. Prospects may want to look for alternatives. Current users should prepare contingency plans for a migration to Oracle's or other vendors' equivalents during the next 12 to 18 months. WebLogic Server, the most important BEA product, is a special case. Gartner expects Oracle to provide unlimited support for this product, but it may end up as a cash generator, given its overlap with Oracle Application Server, or it may be a survivor integrated into OFM as an equal peer to Oracle's Java EE server, because of its large installed base and technical qualities. In part, this is already the case, because some components of the OFM stack (for example, BPEL Process Manager, Coherence, TopLink and JDeveloper) can be deployed (or are "hot pluggable," in Oracle's parlance) atop BEA's application server. What should OFM customers and those interested in this product line do? Oracle has proved to effectively and rapidly integrate into its strategy a variety of acquired middleware technologies. However, for the most part, this has occurred in little, incremental steps as a consequence of targeted acquisitions of small companies. Integrating BEA is a much more challenging effort. Oracle must assimilate a large portfolio of middleware products comparable in complexity and size with its own OFM. Thus, it will take several months post-acquisition for Oracle to define a clear integration road map, and it will take at least 12 to 18 months to complete the integration of survivor products. Investments in Oracle's middleware are relatively low-risk, because the acquisition of BEA Systems will not disrupt OFM's architectural foundations or technology direction. Both vendors are firmly in the Java camp and support the same set of fundamental standards (Java EE, XML, Web Services and others). Nevertheless, OFM users and prospective customers should be aware that, during the next two years, they may experience discontinuity in specific product areas as Oracle integrates selected BEA products into its middleware stack. Furthermore, some BEA products may strategically replace or be converged with OFM components having older architectures or smaller installed bases. Examples include Oracle's portal, ESB and, to a certain Publication Date: 4 March 2008/ID Number: G Page 5 of 7

6 extent, application server. However, common support for OSGi technology will facilitate potential convergence for products such as Java EE servers and ESBs. OFM users may want to include a transition provision in their contracts until Oracle discloses an integration road map. How is it possible to assess the success of the acquisition during the next 12 to 18 months? This is a complex and delicate acquisition that may encounter major hurdles for several commercial, marketing, technological and cultural reasons. Key success factors include: Oracle's ability to retain key BEA salespeople and engineers High loyalty on the part of key BEA clients and partners Oracle market share in PPMW in line with the potential of the combined Oracle and BEA current share (around 18% to 20%) Oracle's leadership in PPMW segments where the Oracle/BEA combination potentially has the highest market share Publication in three months from the deal close of an unambiguous and realistic road map to absorb BEA product in OFM Definition of a clear migration path for clients of BEA's (and Oracle's) indeterminate products RECOMMENDED READING "BEA Customers Should Seek Contractual Protections Before Acquisition by Oracle" "Dataquest Insight: Market Share Implications of Oracle's Acquisition of BEA Systems" Publication Date: 4 March 2008/ID Number: G Page 6 of 7

7 REGIONAL HEADQUARTERS Corporate Headquarters 56 Top Gallant Road Stamford, CT U.S.A European Headquarters Tamesis The Glanty Egham Surrey, TW20 9AW UNITED KINGDOM Asia/Pacific Headquarters Gartner Australasia Pty. Ltd. Level 9, 141 Walker Street North Sydney New South Wales 2060 AUSTRALIA Japan Headquarters Gartner Japan Ltd. Aobadai Hills, 6F 7-7, Aobadai, 4-chome Meguro-ku, Tokyo JAPAN Latin America Headquarters Gartner do Brazil Av. das Nações Unidas, andar World Trade Center São Paulo SP BRAZIL Publication Date: 4 March 2008/ID Number: G Page 7 of 7