Managing Complexity in the Face of Uncertainty

Transcription

1 Effective Project Management: Traditional, Agile, Extreme Managing Complexity in the Face of Uncertainty After successful studying this chapter You should be able to: Use tools, templates, and processes to plan a TPM project Discuss the importance of planning Apply software packages to plan projects Plan & conduct the Joint Project Planning Session (JPPS) Build the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Estimate task duration, resource requirements, cost Construct the project network diagram Write an effective project proposal Gain approval to launch the project 1

2 The Pain Curve Pain Good Planning Poor Planning 18-36% Time The Importance of Planning Planning Reduces Uncertainty Planning Increases Understanding Planning Improves Efficiency 2

3 Using Software Packages to Plan a Project Yes Very large projects Distributed teams Extensive use of vendors and contractors No Small projects Short duration project increments Adds too much non-value-added work Frequent scope and requirements changes Project Planning Tools Sticky notes (various colors) Marking pens (assorted colors) Plenty (a lot) of whiteboard space 3

4 Uses for Sticky Notes Task ID Unique task name Task duration Task labor Resource requirements Task manager ES, EF, LS, and LF (calculated values) Critical Path (calculated) Uses for Marking Pens Define dependency relationships Identify the critical path 4

5 Uses for the Whiteboard Project Overview Statement Work Breakdown Structure Dependency Diagram Initial Project Schedule Final Project Schedule Resource Schedule Issues Log Updated Project Schedule How Much Time Should Planning Take? Very small projects < ½ day Small projects < 1 day Medium projects 2 days Large projects 3-4 days Very large projects??? 5

6 The JPPS Meeting Components Attendees Facilities Equipment Agenda Deliverables Project Proposal (Joint Project Planning Session) The JPPS Attendees Facilitator Project manager Another project manager JPP consultant Technographer Core project team Client representative Resource managers Project champion Functional managers Process owner 6

7 The JPPS Facilities & Equipment Facilities Comfortable Away from interruptions (off-site or on-site) Break-out rooms? Equipment Break-out group work areas (table, chairs, flip charts) Whiteboards Projection equipment The Complete JPPS Agenda Session #1 Negotiate the COS Build the RBS Session #2 Write the POS Session #3 Part 1: Kick-off Part 2: Working session 7

8 Who s Involved in the Planning Process? Session #1 Project Manager Client Session #2 Project Manager Client Project Team (known members) Session #3 Project Manager Entire Project Team The JPPS Agenda Session #3 Planning Kick-off Introduction of Sponsor Sponsor overview of the project and its importance to the company/division/department Introduction of the client co-project manager Introduction of the IT co-project manager Introduction of the core project team Introduction of the planning facilitation team (facilitator and technographer) 8

9 JPPS Agenda Session #3 Working session Validation & prioritization of requirements Overview of the project planning approach to be taken Generation and validation of the WBS Estimate duration, labor and resource requirements Creation of the dependency diagram Discuss critical path and project completion date Analysis and schedule compression as needed Identification of project risks and mitigation plans Planning team consensus on project plan contents Adjournment Planning Session Activities Review the POS for clarity Create Work Breakdown Structure Estimate task duration and resource needs Construct project network diagram Determine critical path Revise and approve project schedule Finalize resource schedule Gain consensus on the project plan 9

10 The Role of the Client in the JPPS The client or their representative must be present. Validation of requirements and POS Prioritizing requirements (MoSCoW) Generating and validating the WBS Commitment of resources from the client Agreement on the project plan Client must own the project plan Meaningful involvement by the client Prioritizing requirements (MoSCoW) M MUST Describes a requirement that must be satisfied in the final solution for the solution to be considered a success. S SHOULD Represents a high-priority item that should be included in the solution if it is possible. This is often a critical requirement but one which can be satisfied in other ways if strictly necessary. C COULD Describes a requirement which is considered desirable but not necessary. This will be included if time and resources permit. W WON'T Represents a requirement that stakeholders have agreed will not be implemented in a given release, but may be considered for the future. (note: occasionally the word "Would" is substituted for "Won't" to give a clearer understanding of this choice). 10

11 Definition of the WBS The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is a hierarchical description of all of the work that must be done to meet the needs of the client. The RBS Each activity is a further decomposition of the WBS

12 Hierarchical visualization of the WBS GOAL Function Function Function Macro-Level Subfunction Subfunction Subfunction Mid- Level Activity Task #1 Task #2 Task #3.... Task #n Micro-Level Work Package Uses for the WBS? Thought process tool Architectural design tool Planning tool Project status reporting tool 12

13 Generating the WBS Converting the RBS to the WBS ( 5.2) Team Approach Sub-team Approach Top-Down Approach Team Approach Sub-team Approach Bottom-Up Approach Which is best? When? Why? WBS Completion Criteria Status and completion are measurable The activity is bounded The activity has a deliverable Time and cost are easily estimated Activity duration is within acceptable limits Work assignments are independent (SMART) 13

14 WBS Completion Criteria (cont.) The client didn t participate in building the WBS like you expected. You have an uncomfortable feeling Scope change is likely to be a big part of the project Choose a PMLC model that accommodates frequent change WBS Completion Criteria Exceptions Stopping Before Completion Criteria Are Met Decomposing Beyond Completion of the Criteria Short duration projects High risk activities Large duration variance 14

15 RBS is a subset of the WBS Project goal and solution RBS WBS Requirement 1 Requirement n Function Function Function Function Function Function n.1 n.2 n.3 Sub-function Sub-function Sub-function Feature Feature Feature Feature Feature Feature Feature Feature n.3.1 n.3.2 n.3.3 n.3.4 Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity n n n Task Task Task Task n Task n Task n Approaches to Building the WBS Noun-type Approaches Physical components Functional components Verb-type Approaches Design-build-test-implement Objectives Organizational approaches Geographic Departmental Business process Which is best? When? Why? 15

16 Graphical WBS for a House HOUSE SITE FOUNDATIO N FRAMING WALLS ROOFING UTILITIES LANDSCAPING FINISH WORK Layout Grade Excavate Install Sheathing Lay Shingles Erect Forms Pour Concrete Remove forms Hang Sheetrock Tape & Bed ELECT. GAS WATER Do Rough-in Work Do Rough-in Work Do Rough-in Work FLOOR JOISTS SUB- FLOOR STUD WALLS FRAME ROOF Get Building Inspect. Get Building Inspect. Get Building Inspect. Install 1st Floor Install 1st Floor Install 1st Floor Do Finish Work Do Finish Work Do Finish Work Install 2nd Floor Install 2nd Floor Install 2nd Floor Install Cabinets Install Appliances Install Furnace Lay Carpet Paint Walls & Molding Hang Wallpaper Lay Tile Indented Outline WBS for a House 1. SITE PREPARATION 1.1. Layout 1.2. Grading 1.3. Excavation 2. FOUNDATION 2.1. Erect Forms 2.2. Pour Concrete 2.3. Remove Forms 3. FRAMING 3.1. Floor Joists Install first floor joists Install second floor joists 3.2. Sub-flooring Install first floor sub-flooring Install second floor sub-flooring 3.3. Stud Walls Erect first floor stud walls Erect second floor stud walls 3.4. Frame the roof

17 WBS for a Waterfall SDM SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Definition Design Implementation State objectives Functional Programming Clarify request Establish objectives Identify interfaces Design I/O Source code JCL Construct code Conduct unit test Construct JCL Conduct system test Identify key issues Define requirements Spec audits/controls Confirm specs Documentation Get approval Obtain current doc. Define new reqmts Choose SDM Get approval Technical Define pgm specs Prepare system flow Convert data Build integration test plan Installation Testing Training Cut-over Get approval Finalize test plan Create test data Conduct test Conduct operations training Conduct user training Finalize plan Convert data Cut-over to production Get approval Operation Operate system Review Audit Get approval Establish plan Review performance Complete financial analysis Analyze risks Using WBS Templates Saves planning time Builds on prior experience Standardizes the planning and management of projects using the templates Provides a structure for collecting and using estimated/actual duration and cost data Focuses process quality improvement efforts 17

18 Typical Recurring Projects Update an application with new functionality Distribute a new release of a software package Install a network in a field office Update training materials Develop new training materials Elapsed time (duration) versus work time (labor) Labor 10 8 L = D L =.75D % unplanned interruptions Duration MODEL ASSUMPTIONS * Individuals work at 75 percent efficiency rate. * Unplanned interruptions account for 33 percent of clock time

19 Should I Estimate Task Duration or Task Labor? Estimate duration to build the schedule and determine when the project will be completed Estimate labor when you have to contain expenses within a budget Resource Loading vs. Task Duration 1. Pick up the chair 2. Carry it to the door 3. Set the chair down 4. Open the door 5. Hold the door open with your foot as you pick up the chair 6. Carry the chair out the door 7. Set the chair in the hallway Time # of people on the team 19

20 Causes of Variation in Duration Varying skill levels Unexpected events Efficiency of work time Mistakes and misunderstandings Variation within the capability of the system Common cause variation Six Methods for Estimating Task Duration Extrapolating based on similarity to other activities Studying historical data Seeking expert advice Applying the Delphi Technique (Fig 5.9) Applying the Three-point technique (Fig 5.10) Applying the Wide-band Delphi technique 20

21 Wideband Delphi Wideband Delphi is a process for reaching a consensus estimate of project effort Wideband Delphi is a repeatable / iterative process because it consists of a straightforward sequence of steps. PM chooses an estimation team that include reps from all project areas (managers, developers, architect, QA, writers, etc). every team member should have stake in plan should understand Delphi Process Moderator: someone who understands Delphi Process but has no stake in the results Observers: selected stakeholders or users. encourages trust in the estimation process sense of ownership in the results 41 Wideband Delphi: Entry Criteria 1. Vision and Scope documents have been agreed on by stakeholders 2. Kick-off meeting has been scheduled 3. Estimation meeting has been scheduled (1-2 hrs) 4. Moderator chosen (no the PM) 5. Agreement on the goal of the estimation session 42 21

22 Wideband Delphi - Steps Step 1: Choose the team PM selects estimation team and a moderator. team consists of 3-7 project team members. moderator should be familiar with Delphi process, but should not have a stake in the outcome PM should not be the moderator (he should be part of the estimation team) 43 Wideband Delphi Steps Wideband Delphi - Steps Step 2: Kickoff Meeting each member has read the vision and scope document and any other documentation, and is familiar with the project needs. brainstorm and write down assumptions brainstorm to generate a WBS with tasks team decides on a unit of estimation (man-hours, days, pages,...) 44 22

23 Wideband Delphi- Step 3: Individual Preparation Step 3: Individual Preparation each member generates his own initial estimates for all tasks in the WBS identify subtasks may help clarify an estimate for each task, the team member writes: 1. estimate of effort required to complete task 2. any assumptions needed to make the estimate write down any new tasks the were missed during brainstorming session 45 Wideband Delphi- Steps Step 4: Estimation Session Each team member fills out an estimation form which contains his estimate for each task give the form to the moderator rest of the estimation session consists of rounds where each estimation team member revises her estimates based on group discussion. Individual estimate(s) are not disclosed 46 23

24 Wideband Delphi Step 4: Estimation Session (2) moderator collects the estimation forms and plots the sum of the effort from each form on a line: 47 Wideband Delphi: Estimation Step 4: Estimation Session (3) team resolves any issues or disagreements that are brought up. individual estimate times are not discussed. Disagreements are usually about the tasks themselves. Disagreements are often resolved by adding assumptions

25 Wideband Delphi: Estimation Step 4: Estimation Session (4) team members each revise their individual estimates and gives them to moderator. The moderator updates the plot with the new total 49 Wideband Delphi: Estimation Step 4: Estimation Session (loop) moderator leads the team through several rounds of estimates to gain consensus on estimates. Exit Criteria The estimation session continues until the estimates converge or the team is unwilling to revise estimates. Process also ends if time limit (2 hours) has elapsed

26 The Delphi Technique Third Pass Second Pass First Pass The Three-Point Method, (SIX-Point Estimate Method) O M E P O: Optimistic P: Pessimistic M: Most Likely E = O + 4M + P

27 Estimates Have a Life Cycle Too range time You will be smarter tomorrow than you are today Estimating Resource Requirements People Facilities Equipment Money Materials 27

28 Assigning Staff to Activities Single Point Estimate and Three Point Estimates Single Point Estimate We take a single estimate per task Three point Estimate We take three estimates per task Optimistic Estimate Best Case Scenario Pessimistic Estimate Worst Case Scenario Most Likely Estimate Average the three estimates to get a three point estimate 56 28

29 Three-Point Estimates Instead of providing activity estimates as a discrete number, such as four weeks, it s often helpful to create a three-point estimate: An estimate that includes an optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimate, such as three weeks for the optimistic, four weeks for the most likely, and five weeks for the pessimistic estimate. Three-point estimates are needed for PERT estimates. Six point Estimates (PERT: Project Evaluation & Review Techniques) 57 Three-Point Estimate: Example Three point Estimate Example: Optimistic = 6 hours Pessimistic = 10 hours Most Likely = 8 hours The three point estimate is (6+10+8)/3 = 8 hours 29

30 Six-point Estimate (PERT) We take three estimates per task Optimistic Estimate Best Case Scenario Pessimistic Estimate Worst Case Scenario Most Likely Estimate Multiply the Most Likely estimate by 4, add to the Optimistic and Pessimistic estimates and divide by 6 (Pert Estimate: E = (O + 4M + P) / 6 ) Six-Point Estimate (PERT): Example Example: Optimistic = 6 hours Pessimistic = 10 hours Most Likely = 8 hours The six point estimate is (6+10+4x8)/6 = 8 hours 30

31 Resource Organizational Structure Estimating Cost Order of magnitude estimate Budget estimate Definitive estimate Cost Budgeting Cost Control Weekly reports Baseline versus actual 31

32 Network-based Scheduling Gantt Charts Design Build Test Install time Network-based Scheduling Task on the Arrow

33 Network-based Scheduling Task on the node format Task Node ES EF ID SLACK E LS (ES: Early Start, EF: Early Finish, LS: Late Start, LF: Late Finish) LF

34 Diagramming Conventions Dependency Relationships A B FS: When A finishes, B may start A B FF: When A finishes, B may finish A B SS: When A starts, B may start A B SF: When A starts, B may finish

35 Dependency Constraints Technical constraints Discretionary constraints Best practice constraints Logical constraints Unique requirements constraints Management constraints Inter-project constraints Date constraints No earlier than No later than On this date Lag variables Paths Through the Network The Forward Pass Early Schedule Left to right (start to finish) Determines Early Start and Early Finish ES + duration 1 = EF Backward Pass Late Schedule Right to left (finish to start) Determines Late Start and Late Finish LF - duration + 1 = LS 35

36 Forward Pass Calculations Early Schedule Backward Pass Calculations Late Schedule

37 Critical Path Early Start to Late Finish Window Task Slack ES Duration LF

38 Slack Time Total Slack Time that a task can be delayed without impacting the early schedule of the project. Free Slack Time a task can be delayed without impacting the early schedule of its successor tasks. Do Not Plan to Use Slack to Bail Out the Project! Building the Initial Dependency Diagram 1. Enter task name and duration into software tool 2. Print PERT Diagram 3. Cut out each task node and affix to a Sticky Note 4. Write task ID # on Post-It Note 5. Place Sticky Notes on right side of whiteboard 6. Position start node on left side of whiteboard 7. Move all tasks with no predecessor to left side and connect to start node 8. Move all tasks on the right side with predecessors on the left side to the left side and connect with single line 9. Continue until all task nodes have been moved to left side 38

39 Schedule Compression Techniques Replace FS with SS dependencies Replace a team member with a more skilled person Add resources From non-critical path tasks to critical path tasks From other projects To where critical path tasks high-risk tasks tasks with large duration variances Schedule Compression Iterations

40 Schedule Compression Schedule compression doesn t come free. What is the impact on the project due to schedule compression? Management Reserve DO NOT PAD ACTIVITY DURATION A percentage (5 10) of total project work hours The last activity in the project A schedule contingency for the unexpected Make it visible and manage it 40

41 Contents of the Project Proposal Executive Summary Background Objective Overview of the approach to be taken Detailed statement of work Time and cost summary Appendices Gaining Approval to Launch the Project The cost/benefit is not in your favor The risks of failure are too high The total project cost exceeds available funding There are other projects competing for the same resources 41