The CHBA Poll Winter 2013

Transcription

1 The CHBA Poll Winter 213 The 46 th Pulse Survey of new home builders and renovators was conducted by the Canadian Home Builders' Association (CHBA) in December 212 and January 213 with the assistance of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Natural Resources Canada. A total of 342 new home builders and renovators across Canada responded to the survey that was tabulated and analyzed on behalf of the CHBA by Altus Group Economic Consulting. The main highlights of the survey include: New home builders expect modestly lower housing starts in 213. However, expectations for 213 remain in line with estimates of demographic requirements. Renovators expect stable or improving renovation activity in 213. Shortages of lots, trades, and financing are growing concerns for new home builders. Regulatory issues have become less of a concern. Rising costs due to development charges remains a critical problem for new home builders. Especially in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and British Columbia. The underground cash economy remains a key problem with renovator members. New home builders and renovators report increased employment in the industry in the past year. Further growth in employment is expected in 213. Buyer traffic among all buyer types is markedly lower at new home sites. Inventories of new single-detached homes remain steady. Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Atlantic Provinces, on average, are the only areas to report notably higher inventories in 212. The custom home market will remain the primary target for new home builders in 213. The average new single-detached home is about 2, sq. ft. and new home builders expect them to stay the same in 213. More than three out of five new home builders expect new house prices to increase in 213. Winter 213 Page 1

2 New Home Builders Expect Modestly Lower Housing Starts in 213 Total Housing Starts, Canada Units (s) (f) Source: CMHC (historical) and Pulse Survey (forecast) 1 New home builders expect housing starts to moderate to about 197,35 units 1 in 213 down from 212. New home builders are expecting 213 to be the second strongest year in 5 years and for starts to be generally in line with long-term demographic requirements for housing. Relative to housing starts activity in 212, new home builders in Manitoba expect a marginal increase in 213. All other provinces expect fewer starts, with new home builders in Quebec, Newfoundland, and P.E.I. expecting the largest decline in percentage terms. New home builders were provided with information on estimated starts in their province in 212 and asked to forecast starts in 213. The national forecast is the sum of the medians of forecasts for each province. Total Housing Starts by Province Avg. Ann Avg. Ann f Units (s) Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Canada Note: totals may not add due to rounding Source: CMHC and new home builder forecasts from Pulse Survey Winter 213 Page 2

3 And Most Renovators Expect Stable or Improving Activity Change in Renovation Activity % of Renovators 75 Compared to 12 Months Ago - Winter 213 Survey Expected Over Next 12 Months - Winter 213 Survey Renovators report increases in activity in the past year over one-third of CHBA renovator members (37%) say their renovation activity is now higher than 12 months ago, compared to one quarter reporting lower activity. On balance, renovators expect further increases in renovation activity over the next year, with 42% expecting higher activity versus 9% expecting lower. 15 Higher Same Lower 9 In all regions, renovators expect generally stable or improving activity levels in 213. Change in Renovation Activity by Region Compared to 12 Months Ago Expected Over Next 12 Months Higher Same Lower Total Higher Same Lower Total Atlantic* Quebec Ontario Man./Sask.* Alberta B.C Canada * Due to relatively small sample sizes, data for the provinces in Atlantic Canada (Newfoundland, P.E.I, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick), as well as for Manitoba and Saskatchewan, are combined in this and subsequent charts Winter 213 Page 3

4 Increasing Costs and Shortages of Lots an Emerging Issue Critical Problems for New Home Builders Winter 211 Winter 212 Winter 213 Indicating a Critical Problem Shortages of: Trades/Labour Serviced Lots Building Materials 1 Financing Rising Costs Due to: Trades/Labour Serviced Lot Prices Building Materials 8 8 Development Charges Regulatory Issues: More Onerous Building Code Requirements More Onerous Municipal Approvals/Standards More Onerous Environmental Regulations Potential Requirements for Sprinklers Consumer/Municipal Attitudes Towards Growth Consumer Confidence Consumer Expectation Re: Level of Protection Builder Profitability Underground Economy Theft of Materials from Sites Interest Rates Mold 1 3 Insurance Rates/Premiums Insurance Coverage Increasing Builder Liability New home builders expect rising costs due to the price of serviced lots to be the top concern in 213, with over one-third identifying it as a critical problem nationally, and as high as 61% in Quebec. Few new home builders expect critical problems due to shortages of building materials. However, concerns over shortages of financing and trades/labour have begun to emerge. Shortages of serviced lots remains a critical problem for about 1 in 4 new home builders. Rising costs due to development charges continue to be a critical problem for a large proportion of new home builders in most regions and is most pronounced in Ontario, B.C., and Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Regulatory issues remain of concern to many new home builders, though generally less so than last year. Concerns over more onerous municipal standards are particularly pronounced in B.C. (39%) Consumer confidence remains a concern (12% of new home builders) especially in B.C. (32%). Concerns about builder profitability have risen (11%). Winter 213 Page 4

5 Critical Problems for New Home Builders by Region Atlantic Quebec Ontario Man./ Sask. Alberta B.C. Canada Indicating a Critical Problem Shortages of: Trades/Labour Serviced Lots Building Materials Financing Rising Costs Due to: Trades/Labour Serviced Lot Prices Building Materials Development Charges Regulatory Issues: More Onerous Building Code Requirements More Onerous Municipal Approvals/Standards More Onerous Environmental Regulations Potential Requirements for Sprinklers Consumer/Municipal Attitudes Towards Growth Consumer Confidence Consumer Expectation Re: Level of Protection Builder Profitability Underground Economy Theft of Materials from Sites Interest Rates Mold Insurance Rates/Premiums Insurance Coverage Increasing Builder Liability Winter 213 Page 5

6 Underground Cash Economy Remains a Key Concern with Renovators Critical Problems for Renovators Winter 211 Winter 212 Winter 213 Indicating a Critical Problem Shortages of: Trades/Labour Building Materials Rising Costs Due to: Trades/Labour Building Materials Consumer Confidence Consumer Expectations Re: Level of Protection 3 2 Builder Profitability Underground Economy Theft of Materials from Sites Mold 1 3 Insurance Rates/Premiums Insurance Coverage Increasing Builder Liability The underground cash economy is expected to be a key concern this year (28%), albeit less so compared to previous years. Shortage of trades and labour remains a critical problem for some 7% of respondents, while rising costs due to shortage of trades is expected to be a problem for a growing percentage of respondents. Rising costs due to building materials is becoming a growing concern for renovator members. Concerns over consumer confidence among renovators have remained very low. Winter 213 Page 6

7 Employment Generally Increasing in Past Year with More Growth Expected in 213 Changes in Employment Full-time in Past Year Part-Time in Past Year Expected for Total Employment Over the Next Year New home builders and renovators report that employment in the home building industry has increased over the past year. Some 26% of all respondents to the Pulse Survey report that full-time employment is up compared to a year ago, while only 17% report a decrease in employment. Builders in Ontario and B.C., on average, report lower full-time employment Higher Same Lower Over three-quarters of builders report no change in part-time employment, with the balance evenly distributed between higher and lower. Builders in Quebec report the highest proportion of increased part-time employment (22%). Builders remain optimistic in terms of labour requirements going forward. One-third expect to take on more workers and most of the balance expect their workforce to be about the same. The strongest expectations are found in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Change in Employment by Region Over the Next Year, Expect Total Employment Now Compared to a Year Ago Employment to: Full-Time Part-Time Stay the Higher Same Lower Total Higher Same Lower Total Increase Same Decrease Total Atlantic Quebec Ontario Man./Sask Alberta B.C Canada Winter 213 Page 7

8 Lower Traffic at New Home Sites for All Buyer Segments Changes in Traffic Compared to Last Year * 5 Higher Lower New home builders report lower traffic than a year ago at new home sales sites across all buyer segments. This could be contributing to expectations for modestly lower housing starts in 213 (see page 2) First-Time Buyers Move-up: Tract/ Semi-Custom Move-up: Custom 22 Move-Down * The remaining respondents reported that traffic was the same as a year earlier In the first-time buyer segment, some 27% of respondents report lower traffic in their market area almost double the proportion reporting higher traffic. New home builders in Alberta and Manitoba and Saskatchewan combined report increased traffic for the first time home buyer segment. The majority of members report no change in traffic in all segments. Changes in Traffic Compared to Last Year by Region First-Time Buyers Move-Up Buyers Fully Tract, Semi- Customized Custom Homes Homes Move-Down Buyers Atlantic Higher Lower Quebec Higher Lower Ontario Higher Lower Man./Sask. Higher Lower Alberta Higher Lower B.C. Higher Lower Canada Higher Lower Winter 213 Page 8

9 New Home Inventories Stable Changes in Inventory of Started But Unsold Single-Detached Homes Compared to Last Year 5 4 * Higher Lower Most new home builders report unchanged inventories, Canada-wide. Approximately twothirds of home builders report unchanged inventories compared to 211, with the remaining being split evenly between higher and lower inventories Atlantic Quebec Ontario Man/Sask Alberta B.C. Canada * The remaining respondents reported that inventory was the same as a year earlier New home builders in Ontario and BC report lower inventories. Generally steady inventories across most of the country is consistent the majority of new home builders reporting no change in buyer traffic at new home sales sites (see page 8). Winter 213 Page 9

10 Custom Market Will Remain Primary Target in 213 Canada-wide, the move-up/custom type of Main Target Market Past 12 Months Next 12 Months homebuyer was the main target market for new home builders in the past 12 months. It is expected to remain the main target market over the next 12 months, despite sharply lower traffic at new home sites within this segment (see page 8) Generally, new home builders expect about the same focus from all market segments over the next year as they had over the last. First-Time Buyers Move-up: Tract/ Semi-Custom Move-up: Custom Move-Down First-time buyers are the main target market for the largest proportion of new home builders in Quebec and the least proportion in Ontario. Over the next year, first-time buyers are expected to become a more important market segment in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Main Target Market by Region First-Time Buyers Move-Up Buyers Tract, Semi- Custom Homes Fully Customized Homes Move- Down Buyers Total Last 12 Months Atlantic Quebec Ontario Man./Sask Alberta B.C Canada Next 12 Months Atlantic Quebec Ontario Man./Sask Alberta B.C Canada Winter 213 Page 1

11 Average New Single-Detached Homes About 2, sq. ft. and New Home Builders Expect That to Go Unchanged in the Coming Year Average Size of New Houses 3, Square Feet Last 12 Months Next 12 Months 2,5 2, 2, 2, 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,1 1, 1,25 Canada-wide, new home builders responding to the latest Pulse Survey report the average size of a new single-detached house built in their market at about 2, square feet, and do not expect that to change in 213. In a similar trend, new home builders expect the size of semi/row/townhouse units to remain the same. Expectations are for a slight decrease in the size of condominium apartment units. 5 Single-detached Semi, Row, Townhouse Condo. Apt. By region, average sizes for single-detached homes range from a high of 3, square feet in B.C. to a low of 1,55 square feet in the provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan combined. Average Size of New Single-Detached Houses 3,2 Square Feet 3, 2,4 2, 2,4 2,5 2, 2, 1,6 1,55 8 Atlantic Quebec Ontario Man/Sask Alberta B.C. Canada Winter 213 Page 11

12 Majority of New Home Builders Expect New House Prices to Rise Expected Changes in New Single-Detached House Prices Over Next Year Higher Same Lower Total Atlantic Quebec Ontario Man./Sask Alberta B.C Canada Canada-wide, more than half of new home builders expect that new single-detached house prices will increase over the next year, while only 1% expect a decline. B.C. is the only province where the majority of new home builders report either stable or lower expected prices (93%) in % of builders in Manitoba and Saskatchewan are expecting higher prices.. Winter 213 Page 12

13 Average Reported Renovation Contract is $33, and Takes 6 Weeks to Complete Average Size of Renovation Projects % of Renovators 25 $1, or Less 18 $1,1- $25, 19 $25,1- $5, 16 $5,1- $1, 14 $1,1- $2, 8 Over $2, The range of renovation projects undertaken by CHBA members is broad. About one-fourth of CHBA renovator members indicated that their average project last year was less than $1,, while one-fifth report that their average project size was over $1,. Overall, the average size of contracts reported by renovators responding to the Winter 213 Pulse Survey is $33, and the average duration of renovation projects about 6 weeks. 1 Average Size and Duration of Renovation Projects* Average Size Average Duration $s Weeks Atlantic 35 5 Quebec 15 4 Ontario 5 8 Man./Sask.** 3 1 Alberta 6 8 B.C Canada 33 6 * The median responses are presented here ** Very small sample Project sizes are typically smaller in Eastern Canada than Western Canada. Requests for bathroom and kitchen renovations showed the largest increase, while conversions displayed the largest decline. 1 Renovators were asked to provide the average size and duration of their renovation projects. The median responses are presented here (the median is the point at which half the responses are above and half are below). Net Change* in Requests for Renovation Projects in Past Year Bathroom Renovation Kitchen Renovation Energy Efficient Improvements Complete Interior/Exterior Renovation Room Addition Basement/Rec Room Renovation Accessibility for Elderly/Disabled Incorporate Accessory Suite Bedroom Renovation Incorporate Home Based Business Conversions from Non-Res. to Res * % of respondents reporting increased requests minus % of respondents reporting decreased requests Winter 213 Page 13

14 The CHBA Poll Winter 213 British Columbia Builders Forecast Moderately Lower Housing Starts and Increasing Renovation Activity in 213 Total Housing Starts British Columbia Units (s) New home builders in British Columbia expect total housing starts to be 25, units in 213, moderately fewer than the 27,476 units started in 212, according to the latest Pulse Survey conducted in December 212 and January 213 by the Canadian Home Builders Association (CHBA). Canada-wide, new home builders are expecting about 197,35 starts in 213, somewhat lower than the 214,815 starts in 212 but in line with long-term demographic requirements f Source: CMHC (historical) and Pulse Survey (forecast) Change in Renovation Activity British Columbia On average, British Columbia renovators responding to the Pulse Survey report decreased activity. About one-third of renovators in British Columbia report that their renovation activity is lower than 12 months ago, while 28% report higher activity Compared to 12 Months Ago Expected Over Next 12 Months 33 8 Renovators in British Columbia overwhelmingly expect increases in renovation activity over the next 12 months. More onerous municipal standards and the underground cash economy are the top concerns that renovators are expecting for 213. Higher Same Lower

15 Changes in Traffic Compared to Last Year British Columbia First-Time Buyers Move-up: Tract/ Semi-Custom 5 Higher Lower Move-up: Custom Top* Problems for New Home Builders British Columbia Indicating Each as a Critical Problem Rising Development Charges More Onerous Municipal Approvals/Standards Rising Serviced Lot Prices Consumer Confidence More Onerous Environmental Regulations More Onerous Building Code Requirements Builder Profitability Rising Trades/Labour Costs Shortages of Serviced Lots Increasing Builder Liability *Problems identified as critical by at least 12% of builder members Move-Down New home builders and renovators in British Columbia report that, on average, full-time and part-time employment is down in their companies compared to a year ago. Higher total employment is expected over the next year. British Columbia new home builders report lower traffic at new home sales sites across all market segments except the move-down market. On average, new home builders in British Columbia report that inventories of startedbut-unsold single-detached units are slightly lower this year compared to a year ago. New home builders in British Columbia are planning shifts in the upcoming year towards targeting the move-down buyers and away from first-time and semi-custom segments, consistent with traffic at new home sites. The most often cited critical problems for new home builders in British Columbia are rising development charges, more onerous municipal approval/standards, rising serviced lot prices, and consumer confidence. Most new home builders in British Columbia are expecting new single-detached house prices either to decrease or remain stable over the next year, with only 7% expecting an increase. The Pulse Survey was conducted by the CHBA with assistance from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Natural Resources Canada. The survey was tabulated and analyzed by Altus Group Economic Consulting. Copies of the detailed results are available from the CHBA (chba@chba.ca).

16 The CHBA Poll Winter 213 Alberta New Home Builders Expect Stable Housing Starts and Rising Singledetached Housing Prices Total Housing Starts Alberta Units (s) f Source: CMHC (historical) and Pulse Survey (forecast) Change in Renovation Activity Alberta Compared to 12 Months Ago Expected Over Next 12 Months New home builders in Alberta expect total housing starts to be about 32, units in 212, slightly fewer than the 33,397 units started in 211, according to the latest Pulse Survey conducted in December 212 and January 213 by the Canadian Home Builders Association (CHBA). Canada-wide, new home builders are expecting about 197,35 starts in 213, lower than the 214,815 starts in 212 but in line with long-term demographic requirements. Overwhelmingly, Alberta renovators responding to the Pulse Survey report stronger activity. Half of renovators in Alberta report that their renovation activity is now higher than 12 months ago. Renovators in Alberta expect some improvement in renovation activity over the next 12 months, with about 87% expecting stable or higher activity. Renovators in Alberta report that their top concern for 213 is the underground cash economy. 15 Higher Same Lower 13

17 Changes in Traffic Compared to Last Year Alberta First-Time Buyers Move-up: Tract/ Semi- Custom Higher 27 Move-up: Custom Lower Top* Problems for New Home Builders Alberta Indicating Each as a Critical Problem Rising Serviced Lot Prices Rising Development Charges More Onerous Municipal Approvals/Standards Potential Requirements for Sprinklers More Onerous Building Code Requirements Increasing Builder Liability Shortages of financing Shortages of Serviced Lots Move-Down *Problems identified as critical by at least 12% of builder members New home builders and renovators in Alberta report that, on average, both full-time and part-time employment in their companies is higher compared to a year ago, with a further increase expected in 213. New home builders in Alberta report that traffic at new home sales sites is either increased or stable among all buyer segments compared to last year. On average, new home builders in Alberta report that inventories of started-but-unsold single-detached units are steady compared to a year ago. New home builders in Alberta are planning modest shifts in the upcoming year away from targeting the custom home buyer market and towards the move-down and first-time buyers markets. The most often cited critical problems for new home builders in Alberta are rising serviced lot prices, rising development charges, more onerous municipal standards and requirements for sprinklers. A majority of new home builders in Alberta are expecting new single-detached house prices to increase over the next year; only 2% expect some declines. The Pulse Survey was conducted by the CHBA with assistance from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Natural Resources Canada. The survey was tabulated and analyzed by Altus Group Economic Consulting. Copies of the detailed results are available from the CHBA (chba@chba.ca).

18 The CHBA Poll Winter 213 Manitoba/Saskatchewan Builders Expect Steady Housing Starts, but Higher Employment and House Prices in 213 Total Housing Starts Manitoba/Saskatchewan Units (s) f Source: CMHC (historical) and Pulse Survey (forecast) Change in Renovation Activity Manitoba/Saskatchewan * Compared to 12 Months Ago Expected Over Next 12 Months New home builders in Manitoba/Saskatchewan expect combined total housing starts for these two provinces to be 17,1 units in 213, on par with the 17,196 units started 212, according to the latest Pulse Survey conducted in December 212 and January 213 by the Canadian Home Builders Association (CHBA). Starts in 213 are expected to remain above historical norms. Canada-wide, new home builders are expecting about 197,35 starts in 213, somewhat lower than the 214,815 starts in 212 but in line with long-term demographic requirements. Renovators in Manitoba/Saskatchewan responding to the Pulse Survey report increasing activity. One-third of renovators report that their renovation activity increased compared to 12 months ago, while the remainder reported no change. Renovators in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, on average, expect an increase in renovation activity over the next 12 months Higher Same Lower New home builders in Manitoba/Saskatchewan expect an increase in sales in 213, with 87% expecting increasing or steady sales. * Very small sample

19 Changes in Traffic Compared to Last Year Manitoba/Saskatchewan Higher First-Time Buyers Move-up: Tract/ Semi-Custom Lower 7 27 Move-up: Custom Top* Problems for New Home Builders Manitoba/Saskatchewan Indicating Each as a Critical Problem Rising Serviced Lot Prices Rising Development Charges Shortages of Serviced Lots Shortages of Financing Trades/Labour Shortages Potential Requirements for Sprinklers Consumer/Municipal Attitudes Towards Growth Rising Building Materials Prices Interest Rates Builder Profitability Move-Down *Problems identified as critical by at least 12% of builder members New home builders and renovators in Manitoba/Saskatchewan report that, on average, full-time employment in their companies is up over a year ago with almost half of respondents reporting an increase and all others reporting no change. The same results are expected for 213. New home builders in Manitoba/Saskatchewan report higher traffic for first-time and semicustom market segments, while traffic is down for fully customized homes. On average, new home builders in Manitoba/Saskatchewan report that inventories of started-but-unsold singledetached units are higher this year compared to a year ago. New home builders in Manitoba/Saskatchewan are planning some shift in the upcoming year away from the semi-custom segment, towards the first-time buyer segment, reinforcing the rising traffic within this segment at new home sites. The most often cited critical problems for new home builders in Manitoba/Saskatchewan are rising serviced lot prices and development charges, followed by shortages of financing and trades, potential requirements for sprinklers, and rising building material prices. Four-fifths of new home builders in Manitoba/Saskatchewan expect new singledetached house prices to increase over the next year, while none expect declines. The Pulse Survey was conducted by the CHBA with assistance from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Natural Resources Canada. The survey was tabulated and analyzed by Altus Group Economic Consulting. Copies of the detailed results are available from the CHBA (chba@chba.ca).

20 The CHBA Poll Winter 213 Ontario New Home Builders Expect Higher House Prices and Are Concerned about Development Charges Total Housing Starts Ontario Units (s) f Source: CMHC (historical) and Pulse Survey (forecast) Change in Renovation Activity Ontario Compared to 12 Months Ago Expected Over Next 12 Months New home builders in Ontario expect total housing starts to be about 72, units in 213, moderately lower than the 76,745 units started in 212, according to the latest Pulse Survey conducted in December 212 and January 213 by the Canadian Home Builders Association (CHBA). Canada-wide, new home builders are expecting about 197,35 starts in 213, somewhat lower than the 214,815 starts in 212 but in line with long-term demographic requirements. On average, Ontario renovators responding to the Pulse Survey report rising activity with seven out of ten renovators in Ontario reporting their renovation activity the same or higher than 12 months ago. Moreover, renovators in Ontario expect further gains in renovation activity over the next 12 months, with 9% of renovators expecting higher or stable activity ahead. The underground cash economy is the top concern expected for 213 among Ontario renovators, followed by more onerous municipal approvals/standards Higher Same Lower

21 Changes in Traffic Compared to Last Year Ontario Higher 25 First-Time Buyers Move-up: Tract/ Semi-Custom 17 Lower 38 Move-up: Custom Top* Problems for New Home Builders Ontario Move-Down Indicating Each as a Critical Problem Rising Development Charges Rising Serviced Lot Prices Shortages of Serviced Lots More Onerous Municipal Approvals/Standards More Onerous Environmental Regulations More Onerous BuildingCode Requirements Potential Requirements for Sprinklers Underground Economy *Problems identified as critical by at least 12% of builder members New home builders and renovators in Ontario report that, on average, employment in their companies was somewhat lower than a year ago for both full-time and part-time employment. Overall employment is expected to rise modestly over the next year, according to respondents. Ontario new home builders report lower traffic at new home sales sites among firsttime and move-up market segments this year, compared to a year ago. The most significant decrease was in the first-time buyer segment. On average, new home builders in Ontario report that inventories of started-but-unsold single-detached units are lower this year compared to a year ago. New home builders in Ontario are planning some shifts in the upcoming year away from the first-time buyer market and toward the semi-custom market, congruous with falling traffic at new home sites within the first-time buyer segment. The most often-cited critical problems for new home builders in Ontario are rising development charges and rising serviced lot prices. Shortages of serviced lots are also a substantial concern. Almost than three fifths of new home builders in Ontario expect new singledetached house prices to increase over the next year; only 6% expect prices to decrease. The Pulse Survey was conducted by the CHBA with assistance from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Natural Resources Canada. The survey was tabulated and analyzed by Altus Group Economic Consulting. Copies of the detailed results are available from the CHBA (chba@chba.ca).

22 The CHBA Poll Winter 213 Quebec New Home Builders Report Significantly Lower Buyer Traffic at New Home Sites Total Housing Starts Quebec Units (s) New home builders in Quebec expect total housing starts to be about 4, units in 213, down from the 47,366 units started in 212, according to the latest Pulse Survey conducted in December 212 and January 213 by the Canadian Home Builders Association (CHBA) and l Association provinciale des constructeurs d habitations du Quebec (APCHQ). Builder expectations for housing starts in the province for 213 are below the 1-year average (49,451 units) f Source: CMHC (historical) and Pulse Survey (forecast) Canada-wide, new home builders are expecting about 197,35 starts in 213, somewhat lower than the 214,815 starts in 212 but in line with long-term demographic requirements. Change in Renovation Activity Quebec Compared to 12 Months Ago Higher Same Lower Expected Over Next 12 Months 24 1 On average, Quebec renovators responding to the Pulse Survey report rising activity relative to a year ago. Some 34% of renovators in Quebec report that their renovation activity is higher than 12 months ago, compared to 24% reporting lower activity. On average, renovators in Quebec expect an increase in their renovation activity over the next 12 months. Renovators in Quebec report that their top concern expected for 213 is increasing builder liability, followed by the underground cash economy.

23 Changes in Traffic Compared to Last Year Quebec First-Time Buyers Move-up: Tract/ Semi-Custom Higher 2 48 Move-up: Custom Lower Top* Problems for New Home Builders Quebec Indicating Each as a Critical Problem Rising Serviced Lot Prices Serviced Lots shortage More Onerous Environmental Regulations More Onerous Municipal Approvals/Standards Underground Economy Increasing Builder Liability Rising Trades/Labour Costs Financing shortage Insurance Coverage Rising Development Charges Builder Profitability Move-Down *Problems identified as critical by at least 12% of builder members New home builders and renovators in Quebec report, on average, modestly higher full-time and part-time employment compared to a year ago. They also expect increases in total employment over the next year. Quebec new home builders report lower traffic, on average, at new home sale sites across all markets, especially among the custom home buyer segment of the move-up market. About 1 in 6 new home builders in Quebec report that inventories of started-but-unsold single-detached units are lower this year compared to a year ago a similar amount to those reporting higher. On average, home builders are reporting no change in inventories. New home builders in Quebec are planning some shift from the first-time buyer segment to the semi-custom segment of the move-up market over the next year. Shortages and rising costs of serviced lots are the top two critical problems expected in 213 by Quebec new home builders. Some 56% of new home builders in Quebec expect new single-detached house prices to increase over the next year, while only about 7% expect prices to decline. The Pulse Survey was conducted by the CHBA and l Association provinciale des constructeurs d habitations du Quebec (APCHQ) with assistance from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Natural Resources Canada. The survey was tabulated and analyzed by Altus Group Economic Consulting. Copies of the detailed results are available from the CHBA (chba@chba.ca) or APCHQ.

24 The CHBA Poll Winter 213 Atlantic Canada New Home Builders Report Decreased Buyer Traffic and Higher Single-Detached Inventories Total Housing Starts Atlantic Canada Units (s) f Source: CMHC (historical) and Pulse Survey (forecast) Change in Renovation Activity Atlantic Canada Compared to 12 Months Ago Expected Over Next 12 Months Higher Same Lower 27 7 New home builders in Atlantic Canada expect total housing starts to be about 11,3 units in 213, down modestly from the 12,635 units started in 212, according to the latest Pulse Survey conducted in December 212 and January 213 by the Canadian Home Builders Association (CHBA). New home builder s expectations for 213 are closer to average annual starts over the past decade. Canada-wide, new home builders are expecting about 197,35 starts in 213, somewhat lower than the 214,815 starts in 212 but in line with long-term demographic requirements. On average, Atlantic Canada renovators responding to the Pulse Survey report increased activity. Some 33% of renovators in Atlantic Canada report that their renovation activity is higher than it was 12 months ago, while 27% report lower activity. On average, renovators in Atlantic Canada expect renovation activity to increase further over the next 12 months. The underground cash economy is the top concern of renovators in Atlantic provinces expected for 213.

25 Changes in Traffic Compared to Last Year Atlantic Canada Higher Lower New home builders and renovators in Atlantic Canada report stable full-time employment in their companies with almost three-quarters reporting no change. These results were mirrored in part-time employment. Home builders report employment is expected to be modestly higher over the next year. Atlantic Canada new home builders report lower traffic at new home sales sites across all market segments. First-Time Buyers Move-up: Tract/ Semi-Custom Move-up: Custom Top* Problems for New Home Builders Atlantic Canada Rising serviced lot prices Indicating Each as a Critical Problem 16 Move-Down New home builders in Atlantic Canada report that inventories of started-but-unsold singledetached units are higher than a year ago. Some 29% of respondents report higher inventories compared with 17% reporting lower. New home builders in Atlantic Canada are planning modest shifts in the upcoming year towards targeting move-down buyers, away from the first-time and semi-custom market segments. Underground Economy 16 The most often cited critical problems for new home builders in Atlantic Canada are rising serviced lot prices, the underground cash economy, and shortages of trades/labour and service lots *Problems identified as critical by at least 12% of builder members The majority (65%) of new home builders in Atlantic Canada expect new single-detached house prices to increase over the next year; 4% of the respondents expect a decline. The Pulse Survey was conducted by the CHBA with assistance from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Natural Resources Canada. The survey was tabulated and analyzed by Altus Group Economic Consulting. Copies of the detailed results are available from the CHBA (chba@chba.ca).