Ask the right questions

Transcription

1 QUANTUM LEAP

2 Ask the right questions 2

3 We need to view the issues in a different light and then many things become clearer 3

4 4

5 Problem Analysis Deception of Linear vs Asymptotic Development of Risk Over-confidence in risk taking Perceived Risk >> Extrapolation of Previous Experience to Date: Serious Risk Analysis Realisation and recognition of potential risks Realised Risk >> Surprise Results after New Experience 5

6 Project: Start > Development >> Schedule >>> Risk Assessment >>>> Resource >>>>> Evaluation >> Outcome Problem Analysis Serious Risk Analysis Initial non-proliferation of potential risks Underestimation and compounding of potential risks 6

7 International Projects are renown for the increased level of risk exposure as opposed to working in the home market: Different cultures, languages, attitudes, management styles, contract conditions, currency variations as well as political risks just to name a few. Civil engineering projects are frequently defined as One-Off Prototypes. However the process of organizing and managing the inherent activities and associated risks can be effectively modelled if the key parameters can be defined and utilized in an effective data-base that can link the risks to any parametric design or method of construction. Risk Parameter PM Issues >> Impact 7

8 Project management (PM) is not only about personal relationships, organizing the works operations but also in the modern age about how effective are the IT Systems we are using. Experience in this field in a variety of countries shows that large organizations, and in particular the government departments of developing and even developed countries do not have a harmonized approach to information management. 8

9 One of the first traffic control systems Time control and different perspectives Records Communications A map and flexible schedule within a framework 9

10 Manual to Automated Navigation and Control 10

11 Albert Einstein What we need is a new way of thinking 11

12 Certainty: Certain (Known) Uncertain ( Unknown ) Identification: (Known known) (Known unknown) Identified (Known) Identified Knowledge Identified Risk Unidentified (Unknown) (Unknown known) (Unknown unknown) Untapped knowledge Unidentified Risk Consequences: Event 1: Minimum Risk Effective Working Procedures Event 2: Quantifiable Risk Application of New Procedures Event 3: Area of Research Collection of Potential Data Event 4: Highest Risk How to Identify and Quantify 12

13 We need to structure the variety of issues Rubik developed the famous cube to teach multi-dimensional thinking MATRICS builds on this expertise to develop an integrated project risk model 13

14 Project Development Phase P Project Development Cost C Time for Completion 14

15 RISKS Risk Value COSTS HOW MUCH? 6 Who is Liable? RESPONS- IBILITY IF? 4 1 WHO? If then..else 3 0 WHERE? 2 Who does What? 5 WHEN? WHAT? TIME DESIGN How + When? HOW? RESOURCE 15 Which Method?

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17 BIM XQ 6 Risk Variable 17 Cost

18 Let s Get Back to Basics > Avoiding Compound Risks Breaking the options into manageable and measurable groups Initial Anticipated Risk Profile 18 Consequence: What are the costs of alternative alignments and designs?

19 Choosing the Appropriate Method of Construction for Each Location and Scenario SHAFT 2 SHAFT 1 SHAFT 3 SHAFT 4 SHAFT 5 SHAFT 6 COFFERDAM LONGITUDINAL SECTION D+B TUNNEL UNDER PRESSURE TWIN TBM TUBE CUT & COVER TUNNEL SUBMERSIBLE CONSTRUCTION D+B TUNNEL DRAINED OPTION: OR PIPE JACK ARCH TUNNEL TOP DOWN CONSTRUCTION OPTION: - A WITH MEMBRANE - B WITHOUT MEMBRANE SECTIONS SHAFT 1 SHAFT 2 SHAFT 3 SHAFT 4 SHAFT 5 SHAFT 6 COFFERDAM IN-SITU CONCRETE CAISSON MIXED SECANT PILE WALL UNDERPINNED MIXED CONCRETE SHEET PILES DIAPHRAGM - WALL PLAN VIEW Mountainous, Rural, Urban, Marine Freeze D+B EPB TBM Dwall DSM C+C Imm. Tube 19

20 Highest Low Anticipated Relationship between Risk Category Ground Conditions and for the anticipated Progress Expected Ground Conditions Lowest Relationship between Ground Conditions and actual Progress 20

21 Project Development Phase P Project Development Cost C Time for Completion Let s take an example and work through the issues 21

22 Project Development Phase P: Owner with insufficient knowledge of the most effective methods Let s take an example and work through the issues Project Development Cost C: What will be the costs of driving a long tunnel under the mountain? Time for Completion When will it be complete? 22

23 Now we need to link the different questions to evaluate the impact of each issue on any the other issue Project Development Phase P: Owner with insufficient knowledge of the most effective methods Example: Wrong choice of TBM > delay and extra costs Project Development Cost C: What will be the costs of driving a long tunnel under the city? Time for Completion When will it be complete? 23

24 We also need to ask the questions in the most logical sequence to discover the effects Project Development Phase P: Owner with insufficient knowledge of the most effective methods Example: Wrong choice of TBM > delay and extra costs Project Development Cost C: What will be the costs of driving a long tunnel under the city? Time for Completion When will it be complete? 24

25 The Knowns Employer Design Outline Specs Key Milestones Risk Register Engineer Contractor A Tunnel Subcontractor 1 Civils & Roads Subcontractor 2 Tunnelling Contractor B Building Subcontractor 3 Building Underpinning Design Detail Specs Workshop Drawings Section D Design Milestones 25 Construction Milestones Construction Milestones Construction Milestones Design Interface Detailing Delays in Drawing Approvals Geotechnical Baseline Report * Neighbouring Property Groundwater Table Settlement Spoil Removal Production Cycles Potential Breakdowns Intermediate Shafts Access Permits * GBR Geotechical Baseline Report Important New Item in Planned FIDIC Contract Documents

26 The Knowns Change in Cash Flow The Unknowns: Late Change in Design Change in Methods Event: Difficult Ground > Change in Design > Approval Delays > Production Delays > Additional Equipment >>> Disputed EoTs Delay to Building Completion Date Additional Equipment 26

27 And be able to scale the issues to the real world in terms of: level of detail, location, requirements, sequence of events etc. By modelling the risks as early as possible catastrophes can be mitigated or avoided Known Unknown << FINISH Upgrade Existing Building Known Known << START Example: Wrong choice of TBM > delay and extra costs 27

28 1 Organization 2 3-D Project Alignment showing simplified Interface Details Employer Engineer Contractor A Tunnel Contractor B Building Temporary Access Road High Rise Development Upgrade of Existing Building Contract B Planned Metro Railway Subcontractor 1 Civils & Roads Subcontractor 2 Tunnelling Foundation / Basement Pit Pile Raft Subcontractor 3 Building Underpinning New Tunnel Contract A 28

29 General Conditions: All Types of Construction Particular Conditions: Individual Types of Construction 29

30 30 What is the risk foreseen and actual

31 31 Was this risk foreseen and what is its impact? Local Excavation Collapse and Delays to TBM Progress on the Critical Path

32 Level of Detail Required >> Very Low 1 Low 2 Medium 3 High 4 Very High 5 TOTAL SCORE: = 331 CUMULATIVE SCORE: Remoteness Analysis SINGLE Home Base 3 Example of Compound Risk depending on Job Remoteness Home Base 1 3 > Regional Base 2 9 > National Base 3 15 > International Base 4 27 Rural > Urban Base Regional Base 9 National Base 15 International Base 27 Rural / Urban Base Hydrogeological Analysis 0 H 36 List of Parameters Climate Base 4 Physical Environment Base Works Type O Organisational Complexity Cultural Base Language Base 16 Legal Base 25 Form of Contract 34 Multiple Contracts Employer's Requirements 0 E 128 Project Complexity 9 I Repetitive Nature 20 M Construction Method Time Analysis Project Time Scale 15 P Cycle Times 24 Extensions of Time Question? R Resource Analysis Construction Materials 9 Equipment Availability 21 Energy Availability 32 Personnel Experience 44 Subcontracted Work 57 Contract Administration 70 The Unknown Unknown L Liquidity Analysis Budgeting & Estimating Methods 15 Payment Method 30 Milestone Payments 39 Liquidated Damages 54 How do we begin to discover? Project Financing + Interest Rates

33 Complex Analysis of Impact based on Sequence of Events Known and Unknown Quantum Analysis? Potential Compound Risk? Unacceptable Risk Linear Time Now Acceptable Risk Multiple causes requiring clarity of model to cater for varying parallel scenarios: Cause + Effect The Matrics Model provides 33 the clarity through an intelligent database of interface links to estimate the compound risk using a graphical 6D approach. Events:

34 SHAFT 1 SHAFT 2 SHAFT 3 SHAFT 4 SHAFT 5 SHAFT 1 SHAFT 2 SHAFT 3 SHAFT 4 SHAFT 5 IN-SITU CONCRETE D+B TUNNEL UNDER PRESSURE CAISSON D+B TUNNEL DRAINED OPTION: - A WITH MEMBRANE - B WITHOUT MEMBRANE MIXED SECANT PILE WALL TWIN TBM TUBE OPTION: OR PIPE JACK UNDERPINNED ARCH TUNNEL MIXED CONCRETE SHEET PILES CUT & COVER TUNNEL SHAFT 6 SHAFT 6 DIAPHRAGM - WALL COFFERDAM TOP DOWN CONSTRUCTION COFFERDAM LONGITUDINAL SECTION SUBMERSIBLE CONSTRUCTION SECTIONS PLAN VIEW Hydrology vs Method of Construction Project Management Issues vs Database of Risks Design-Build Activity Sequence vs Alignment Organisation Chart Employer Activity vs Risk Register Engineer Contractor B Building Contractor A Tunnel Subcontractor 1 Civils & Roads Subcontractor 2 Tunnelling Subcontractor 3 Building Underpinning Activity vs Specfications Activity vs GCC + PCC Filing Systems + Contents Bill of Quantities + Activity Sequence Project Accounts + Cash Flow Activity vs Equipment Register Cashflow Predictions Settlement Impact vs Neighbouring Property ost Centre vs Project Develop+BoQ 34

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36 36 Simplifying Complexity