Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone

Transcription

1 Sustainable Seismic Risk and Mitigation Strategies; Cost Effectiveness Analysis Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis Sanam Moghimi ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION OF RISKS IN INFRASTRUCTURES INFRARISK- July 16

2 Sustainable Seismic Risk and Mitigation Strategies; Cost Effectiveness Analysis Objective Applicable Mitigation Framework for Decision Making in Seismic Risk Development of Cost Benefit Analysis Model Evaluation of the Most Effective Mitigation Strategies Definition of strengthening Policies for Urban Areas in Metropolitan (Tehran) One Step forward to Conquer Risk Reduction Conflict Sanam Moghimi / Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 2

3 Work Plan Scheduling Task Milestones Time First Year Second Year Third Year Forth Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Data Collecting Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Research Techniques Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Output Analysis Q2 Q3 Q4 Essential Courses Literature Review Data collecting for Case Study Research Methodology Plan Selection of appropriate research techniques Development of the Methodology chosen Statistical Analysis Testing the Accuracy Defining the Scenario of Earthquake Programming & Development Application of Developed methods for case study Actual Task As Planned Critical Task Output Analysis Finding and Recommendation Write up Sanam Moghimi/ Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 3

4 Applicable Mitigation Framework; Cost Effectiveness Analysis Hazard Module Location Magnitude Frequency of Occurrence Soil Typology Building Typology/ age/height Exposure Module Number of household / time depended census Number Displaced household/ Temporary Settlement Vulnerability Module Social Vulnerability Physical Vulnerability Damage & Loss Module Direct Loss Expected Building Damage in particular level of intensity Indirect Loss Alternative Defining Module Do Nothing #0 Retrofitting #1 Retrofitting #N Benefit and Sensitivity Module Direct Benefits Extended Benefits Sensitivity Analysis NOTE: Dashed-Cycles repeat in terms of #Alternatives Sanam Moghimi/ Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 4

5 Mitigation Framework Modules Hazard Module Exposure Module Vulnerability Module Loss & Damage Module Defines the frequency and severity of a hazard, at a specific location Analyzing historical event frequencies Reviewing scientific studies Retrofitting Alternative Module Benefit & Sensitivity Module Results in hazard parameters Decision Making Module Stochastic event sets are generated Sanam Moghimi/ Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 5

6 Mitigation Framework Modules Hazard Module Exposure Module Vulnerability Module Building Typology Building Height/ Building Age Number of Floors/ Status of Building Population Density/ Different Hours Loss & Damage Module Retrofitting Alternative Module Benefit & Sensitivity Module Decision Making Module Sanam Moghimi/ Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 6

7 Mitigation Framework Modules Hazard Module Exposure Module Vulnerability Module Loss & Damage Module Building vulnerability is the measurement of the damage, building is likely to experience when it is subjected to ground shaking of a specified intensity. Fragility Curves; Capacity Curves Retrofitting Alternative Module Benefit & Sensitivity Module Decision Making Module Sanam Moghimi/ Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 7

8 Mitigation Framework Modules Hazard Module Exposure Module Vulnerability Module Loss & Damage Module Retrofitting Alternative Module Several measures are introduced to calculate the loss Damage Ratio Mean Damage Ratio Average Annual Loss Loss Exceedance Curve Probable Maximum Loss Discount rate Benefit & Sensitivity Module Decision Making Module Sanam Moghimi/ Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 8

9 Mitigation Framework Modules Hazard Module Exposure Module Vulnerability Module Loss & Damage Module Retrofitting Alternative Module Benefit & Sensitivity Module Decision Making Module Do Nothing Have time/ Have money Have money/ No time Have money/ Technical issue Limited money/ Unlimited time Common technical alternative Innovative retrofitting alternative Sanam Moghimi/ Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 9

10 Mitigation Framework Modules Hazard Module Exposure Module Vulnerability Module Loss & Damage Module Retrofitting Alternative Module Benefit & Sensitivity Module Decision Making Module Specify the nature of the problem Determine the direct and indirect cost of the mitigation alternatives Determine the benefits of mitigation alternatives; direct benefit indirect benefits Calculate attractiveness of mitigation alternatives Choose the best mitigation alternative; highest BCR. Sanam Moghimi/ Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 10

11 Mitigation Framework Modules Hazard Module Exposure Module Combination of Software-Personal Perception of Decision Makers Vulnerability Module Loss & Damage Module Retrofitting Alternative Module Benefit & Sensitivity Module Decision Making Module Software/ Logic trees Multi-criteria decision making Correlations/Interdependencies Expert judgment, Sensitivity/ Priority / Importance Feasibility/ CBA of alternatives Sanam Moghimi/ Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 11

12 Case Study : Tehran; IRAN Sanam Moghimi / Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 12

13 Country: Iran Capital: Tehran Area of the Capital: km² Distance of the Nearest Mountain to City : 10 km Altitude Approaching; 3933 m Number of Residents: million (2011) Number of Neighborhood: 22 First Severe Recorded Earthquake: 855 Last Severe Earthquake: 1830 Number of Active Fault: 15 Typology of Building: Steel 60 % Concrete 18% Others 20% Epicenteral map of instrumentally recorded earthquakes of the Iranian region from 1900 to 2010, extracted from different catalogs (e.g., ISC, USGS, IIEES), with M>4.0 Maps showing major active faults of Iran 15 active faults of Tehran city Sanam Moghimi / Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 13

14 Tehran has experienced rapid urban development and increasing population density in recent decades Sanam Moghimi / Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 14

15 Buildings in Tehran Building System Tehran International Tower Number of Story 56 Type Location Coordinates Concrete Construction started 1996 Completed 2005 Opening 2007 Height Residential Tehran, Iran N ECoordina tes: N E 162 m (531 ft) Floor area 220,000 m 2 (2,400,000 sq ft) Sanam Moghimi / Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 15

16 Buildings in Tehran Building System Number of Story (depends on type) Tehran AtiSaz Concrete 9-32 Type Location Coordinates Residential Complex Tehran, Iran 35 47'6"N 51 23'25 E Construction started 1975 Completed 1987 New Phase 2001 Complex Area Number of Structures in Complex square meters 23 Sanam Moghimi / Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 16

17 Sanam Moghimi / Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 17

18 Work Done Uncertainty / Reliability Courses (IST) Innovation / Leadership Courses (UMinho) Literature review of seismic risk and mitigation strategies Applicable Mitigation Framework Data collecting for Case Study (as if Tehran is approved) Census and statistics of residents in Tehran, 2011 Typology of buildings and statistics 2006 Sanam Moghimi / Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 18

19 Under Progress: Data Request Correspondence with Following Sectors Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO) Contacting with International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) Tehran Urban Research and Planning Center Statistical Center of Iran Tehran Construction Engineering Organization (TCEO) Tehran University Natural Disaster Management Center Iranian Seismological Center Sanam Moghimi / Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 19

20 Next Steps Research Methodology Plan Selection of appropriate research techniques Development of the Methodology chosen Statistical Analysis Testing the Accuracy Defining the Scenario of Earthquake Sanam Moghimi / Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 20

21 Thank You for Your Consideration Sanam Moghimi / Mitigation Framework for Seismic Prone Zone Considering a Cost Effectiveness Analysis 21