STUDY ON FINAL REPORT SUMMARY. February 2013

Transcription

1 STUDY ON ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN FY2012 STUDY ON THE SECOND JAKARTA-CIKAMPEK TOLL-ROAD PROJECT IN THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA FINAL REPORT SUMMARY February 2013 Prepared for: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Ernst & Young SinNihon LLC Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Prepared by: Oriental Consultants Co., Ltd. Japan Expressway International Company Limited Metropolitan Expressway Company Limited West Nippon Expressway Company Limited

2 (1) Justification, Objectives and Necessity of the Project The main origin of commodity distribution in Jakarta Metropolitan district is on the industrial estates scattered along a toll-road expanding over the surrounding country from Jakarta Port and the center of Jakarta, In particular, recent investments including those to the Japanese related industrial estates which main include the automobile industries have been very active. The estates are located alongside the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll-Road expanding to the east from Jakarta. This situation has led to the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll-Road being of very importance in the field of commodity distribution. The current ending point of commodity distribution is concentrated at Tj. Priok Port located in the north of Jakarta, but as the capacity of Tj. Priok port soon become saturated, a feasibility study is being implemented through the efforts byjapan and Indonesia to expand Tj. Priok Port and to construct the Cilamaya New Port in the eastern part of Jakarta. Figure 1 Location Map of Main Industrial Estate As mentioned above, the capacity of the existing Jakarta-Cikampek Toll-Road is almost saturated and it is strongly desired that the Second Jakarta-Cikampek Toll-Road be constructed in the near future to cope with the increase in commodity distribution due to the opening of Cilamaya New Port and further promotion in investments. (2) Basic Principles to Formulate the Project Basic principles to determine the project contents are as follows: - To estimate the transportation more accurately, the latest social and economic data from 2012 is collected. Transportation surveys and interview surveys with the owners of the factories are also conducted. -To make the project more economically feasible, low cost alignment plan, location of the ICs and the construction phase are studied to ensure the safety of the road users. -To ensure the feasibility of the project, the project scheme and toll free plan are examined based on the review of the road projects and legal framework in Indonesia.

3 (3) Outline of the Project 1) Abstract of the Project Table 1 Outline of the Project Project Name Study on the Second Jakarta-Cikampek Toll-Road Project in the Republic of Indonesia Implement Agency Indonesia, Japanese Expressway Company, Trading Firms, etc. Content of Project Construction of roads, road crossing structures and bridge structures, interchanges, service-areas and parking facilities Road maintenance and road operation & management Project Cost Road construction: Rp. 5.7 trillion (Initial Cost) Junction construction: Rp billion Interchange construction: Rp billion Toll collection system: Rp billion Other facilities: Rp billion Contingency: Rp billion Engineering fee: Rp billion Land acquisition/compensation cost: Rp billion SPC Administration during construction: Rp billion VAT: Rp billion Total: Rp. 8.2 trillion (2012 price) JPY 71.6 billion (JPY 1 = Rp. 115) Expected Mode of Business based on With the toll fare set at only Rp. 600 per kilometer, the project the Financial Analysis might be feasible for a BOT business, though with toll fare set at both Rp 600 and Rp 800 per kilometer, the project is feasible for a SBOT business (Land expropriation is implemented by the Indonesian government and SPC incurs other costs except for land expropriation related to construction). SPC gains fare receipts of all sections. Procurement and Financing JICA Project Finance (70%) and Private Investment (30%) Preliminary Financial and Economic Analysis Financial analysis: Toll fare, Rp. 600 per kilometer, BOT: Project IRR: 16.46% Equity IRR: 22.16% DSCR (lowest): 4.51, DSCR (average): Toll fare, Rp. 600 per kilometer, SBOT: Project IRR: 19.20% Equity IRR: 28.53% DSCR (lowest): 5.06, DSCR (average): Economic analysis: EIRR 48.3% 2) Environmental Consideration The route passes through developed agricultural land and paddy fields in Karawang and some forest areas. This forest is designated as a production forest that is restricted by forest protection regulations. Jatiluhur water reservoir for drinking and irrigation is located in the hinterland of the production forest; thus, the Environmental Management Planning Division recognizes that the production forest plays an important part in the watershed protection forest around the reservoir. On the other hand, in Bekasi, the route mainly passes through paddy fields and residential areas without any protected areas such as forest reserves. Confirmation using satellite images provisionally revealed that 66 households in Karawang and 317 households in Bekasi will be affected by construction of this expressway. Supposing that the population is five per household, 1915 people have to relocate, so it is necessary to take appropriate measures in case of involuntary relocation.

4 (4) Implementation Schedule The estimated implementation schedule as BOT/SBOT is summarized in Table 2 based on the following assumptions. - Construction of the second Jakarta-Cikampek Toll-Road will be divided into two phases in order to be ready in time for the opening of Cilamaya port (Refer to Figure 2) - Operation of phase 1 will be commenced in middle of Operation of phase 2 will be commenced in middle of Table 2 Estimated Implementation Schedule as BOT/SBOT Figure 2 Plan of the Second Jakarta-Cikampek Toll-Road JCT2 IC4 JCT1 IC3 IC2 IC km Phase km Phase 1 (5) Feasibility of Implementation From the financial analysis on the several scenarios of PPP, the Second Jakarta-Cikampek Toll-Road Project in the Republic of Indonesia, might be feasible, though the financial feasibility of IRR does not indicates a high value even IRR meets the evaluation criteria. While, in the SBOT scheme in the Indonesian government, the financial feasibility of IRR will be satisfied if the Government of Indonesia implements the land expropriation. It is assumed that the risks from toll collection or operational schedule will impact the expressway operation as a private investment due to for instance unexpected changes in traffic volume and delay in land acquisition. Therefore, a detailed traffic survey and demand forecast, a study of toll

5 systems of expressways, and a study on the social environment are recommended to be carried out in further stages. (6) Technical Advantage of Japanese Companies 1) Construction of Toll-road NEXCO which is the leading toll-road company in Japan has own in-house engineers and they perform construction management routinely such as planning, design, survey, land acquisition,estimation, procurement, and supervision. For this reason, actual situation of the construction, like for example, can be easily comprehended as a series of flows around the place of project work, and it has been a great help in the management and maintenance phase. Japanese companies especially, NEXCO enjoys highly advanced technology in the following fields. a. Bridge The technological development for the bridge construction has been successfully made considering the various erection conditions. Their features are advanced method of continuation of bridge structure, adoption of deck bridge, cost awareness, workability, landscape consideration, and feedback from maintenance etc. b. Pavement High performance pavement which is just applicable for water-jump prevention and noise reduction has become a standard pavement of NEXCO since January c. Earth work NEXCO has carried out slope stability in the mountain area, and soil stabilization at the farming area. Recently, RI method (radioisotope) is employed for quality control of embankment construction. d. Quality and Safety Control Quality and safety control have been properly exercised in order to make defect-free structures. 2) Maintenance of Toll-road Detailed inspection, repair and reinforcement works are carried out suitably so that the toll-road will be serviceable for a long of time under safe, secure and comfortable condition. a. Inspection Road facilities and road structures such as road surface, slope, and bridge are inspected regularly for the following purpose; -Early detection of abnormalities of the road -To ensure safe and comfortable driving -To prevent damage to the user b. Maintenance and Repair The causes and extent of the defects are investigated and summarized for each target structures considering the importance of the structures and prevention of third party damage. After these studies proper repair is conducted. c. Improvement and Disaster-Preventive Measures The measures for a large-scale earthquake are conducted in order to establish a strong road network in prevention of damages out of disaster. d. Use of ITS ITS (intelligent transportation systems) enhance safety and reduce accidents by making information among people, roads and cars. And ITS also make convenient and easy to move by elimination of congestion. Furthermore, ITS have the effect of reducing the environmental impact such as reducing the amount of CO 2 emissions. Therefore, ITS have been utilized in various fields of maintenance.

6 (7) Specific Schedule to Materialize the Project and Risk 1) Risk of Construction Delay The main work item of the construction is earthwork that should handle a huge volume of soil during the construction. Therefore, progress of the construction could be greatly affected by the weather. 2) Risk of Project authorization Delay Project viz, verification of contract to build the work by the executing agency is the essential issue for commencement of various and preparations. After the authorization, feasibility study, EIA, and LARAP should be conducted before commencement of land acquisition and resettlement as indicated in Table 2. 3) Risk of Delay of Land Acquisition and Resettlement The land acquisition is so as to secure a piece of land area includes the average of right of way for an approximately 60 m width, and a length of 48km covering the road distance. Therefore, it is highest priority and importance to accelerate the land acquisition. The Study Team estimated duration of the land acquisition and resettlement as one and half year for phase 1, and two years for phase 2 as indicated in Table 2. (8) Project Location Map Figure 3 shows project location map. Figure 3 Project Location Map