GLOBAL ISSUES DEFORESTATION

Transcription

1 GLOBAL ISSUES DEFORESTATION Sten Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector Insights AB The Challenge of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the context of Climate Change, Development and Biodiversity Law Brussels, May 2014

2 DRIVERS OF DEFORESTATION Foreign investments Landuse change Demography Taxes International agendas Landuse change Transmigration H o w? Plantations Subsidies Inequalities Policies W h o Poverty Cultures? Corruption Urbanization Climate change Wood consumption Fires Economics Technologies Property rights Road development PRIMARY DRIVERS W h y?

3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK Deforestation is a result of the complex interactions of many different drivers at the local level To come up with sustainable policies on deforestation, a broad societal approach is needed and not just forestry measures Deforestation should be put into a socioeconomic development framework For the sake of development governments, industry

4 AGGREGATED DRIVERS OF TROPICAL (and SUBTROPICAL) GLOBAL DEFORESTATION ( ) 1 AGRICULTURE Total Agriculture Expansion: 83-85% (Gibbs et al., 2010; Hosunuma et al., 2012); Kissinger et al. 2012) Commercial agriculture: 53-56% (Hosunuma et al., 2012); Kissinger et al., 2012; and EC, 2013) Crops: 31% - Pastures: 26% (EC, 2013) Subsistence agriculture: 31% (Hosunuma et a., 2012; and Kissinger et al., 2012) Intact forests: 55%; Disturbed forest: 28% (Gibbs et al., 2010)

5 AGGREGATED DRIVERS OF TROPICAL (and SUBTROPICAL) GLOBAL DEFORESTATION ( ) 2 OTHER SECTORS Infrastructure/Built up: 4-11% (Hosunuma et al, 2012; Kissinger et al. 2012; and EC, 2013) Mining: 5% (Hosunuma et al, 2012; Kissinger et al., 2012) Natural hazards: 13% (EC, 2013) Industrial wood production: 2% (EC, 2013)

6 INTEGRATED LANDUSE POLICIES / MANAGEMENT Dominated by agriculture: - Commercial agricultural expansion increases over time - Imbedded deforestation in export of agricultural commodities increases over time The agricultural dimension of deforestation demands integrated land use policies and management with rearranged institutions, legislation and monitoring infrastructures

7 CHANGE IN FOOD CONSUMPTION TOTAL FOOD DEMAND (FAO, AT 2050) 100% 154% TOTAL FOOD DEMAND (Valin, et al., 2014, Comparison of 10 different economic models) 100% % -- Average 174% MEAT DEMAND (Valin, et al., 2014) 100% Average 203% CROP DEMAND (Valin, et al., 2014) 100% % -- Average 169%

8 GLOBAL LIVESTOCK Today: 60 billion 2050: 100 billion Source: State of the World, 2012; and USAgriTech, Inc., 2008.

9 FUTURE LANDUSE Comparison of the 10 global models (above): increase of cropland by 10-25% up to Also increase in pasture land (Schmitz, et al., 2014) The current cropland area is estimated by FAO to 1.5 billion ha This means an expected landuse change of million ha. Most of it in Sub- Saharan Africa and South America

10 WHERE IS THE CONVERSION VALUE TO AGRICULTURE? US$/ha 1 Africa Latin America Source: Don Roberts, CIBC World Markets Inc., 2010; Fischer G and Shah M, 2010.

11 WHERE IS THE CONVERSION VALUE TO AGRICULTURE? US$/ha 2 Asia and Middle East Source: Don Roberts, CIBC World Markets Inc., 2010; Fischer G and Shah M, 2010.

12 FOOD DEMAND AND SUPPLY Throughout most of history, whenever we needed to produce more food we cut down the forests or plowed grasslands. The cash value of forests is too low in comparison to agricultural production the forests hinder development, leading to deforestation Foley (2014) has identified 4 steps for increased agricultural production with current land

13 1. CLOSE YIELD GAPS Source: Fischer G and Shah M, USE LAND RESOURCES MORE EFFICIENTLY More innovations and more efficient management of agricultural lands. For example, livestock system intensification (Havlik, et al., 2014).

14 3. RELAVITIVE LAND SAVINGS BY CHANGED DIETS Potential land saving of 20-40% by changed diets Source: Modified from Nakicenovic, N and von Winterfeldt D, Options, IIASA, Summer 2011.

15 4. WASTED FOOD 30-50% of produced food wasted Corresponding to billion tons annually Source: Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Source: Vaughan, A. The Guardian, 8 Sept Source: Jon Miller, Gemba panta Rei, 28 Sept

16 CROPLAND CONVERSION TO PRODUCTIVE LAND There are Mha accumulated of degraded croplands during the last 100 years which could be converted to productive cropland (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011) There are 300 Mha of agricultural land that could become more productive and sustainable through agro-forestry (IPFRI, 2006)

17 IN-VITRO MEAT PRODUCTION No land, no farmers, no animals, no mucking Source: Dagens Nyheter (Swedish newspaper) published on 30 Aug. 2011;

18 AGRICULTURAL CHANGE HURDLES Low productivity Lack of access to land (property and economic rights) Improper land structure (land lots) Inadequate infrastructure for agricultural production Weakness in governance Chronic lack of financing Limited access to technologies and knowledge (R&D and extension services) Limited access to markets (regional protectionism) We know what to do. WILL WE DO IT? Probably not. Commercial agriculture certification; taxes based on land origin

19 OVERARCHING GLOBAL ISSUE Deforestation is a result of complex interactions of many different drivers We do not really know the real extent of deforestation or its dynamics (too many qualitative assessments) Currently remote sensing is using resolutions of meters; instead we need meter resolutions Too limited ground-truthing Drigo et al., (2009) for example, state to analyze cause/impact of deforestation we must use data linked directly to objectively observed landuse change

20 OBJECTIVE LANDUSE CHANGE AND DEFORESTATION DATA Socio-Economic Development Framework based on integrated landuse concept 2015: launch of Sentinel m resolution Efficient sample network for groundtruthing Analytical Consortium Dissemination consortium near on-time and on-line observations Local users Free access to sample data The remote sensing community has to shift gear from only launching satellites and collecting data, to building relevant integrated analysis

21 MESSAGES Deforestation is a result of complex interactions of many different drivers Deforestation analysis must be based on a socio-economic development framework Agriculture expansion is a key issue Need integrated landuse policies and management Objective data on landuse change required for relevant policies and management of deforestation As long as governments and industry promote deforestation for the sake of social developments, it will continue

22 Thank you for your attention! Sten B. Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector Insights AB TT Banan 12, S Hedemora, Sweden Phone/Fax: Cell: ; Skype: stenbnilsson