Climate Change Adaptation in the Managed Canadian Boreal Forest

Transcription

1 in the Managed Canadian Boreal Forest Pierre Bernier, Sylvie Gauthier, Kendra Isaac, Nathalie Isabel and Tim Williamson Natural Resources Canada / Canadian Forest Service (pbernier@nrcan.gc.ca)

2 2 Canada s managed boreal forest (adapted from Stinson et al and Brandt 2009)

3 Natural disturbances are the main of forest dynamics in the boreal forest of Canada 3

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6 Spruce Budworm Defoliation (David Gray and Wayne MacKinnon, Canadian Forest Service) Moderate Severe km km km km km km km km 2

7 7 change: Current trends and predictions Annual temperature trend, Canada s forests are getting warmer. Environment Canada 2007 Global predictions call for significant additional warming. IPCC 2007

8 Spruce Budworm Defoliation (David Gray and Wayne MacKinnon, Canadian Forest Service)

9 9 Spruce budworm outbreak in expanded range 2012 data from the Québec Forest Insect and Disease Protection Agency

10 10 Projected changes in fire regime CGCM2 A2 scenario Boulanger, Gauthier, & Burton, in prep. in fire frequency under a 3 x CO 2 scenario More fires, more often CGCM2 Hadley GCM2

11 11 Projections Projected Drought of Hogg CMI ( Moisture Index) SRES A2 averages of four GCMs Hogg et al, Maps prepared by Y. Wang, NRCan

12 Forest fires: an issue of health and safety in boreal forest communities 12 Slave Lake, Alberta, 2011

13 13 change impacts on forest management Shorter winter harvesting/road periods Increased fire-related forest closures Safety of personnel Type and availability of timber supply Long term sustainability goals Extreme event management

14 14 Vulnerability assessment framework Williamson et al

15 Vulnerability assessment framework: Application to all levels of the «forest sector" 15 Forest ecosystem Forest management system Society

16 16 Forest ecosystem Identifying adaptation options to Other 1 2 Forest management system 3 Other 4 to 5 6 Gauthier et al, in prep.

17 17 Forest ecosystem Removing other pressures on the forest landscape (e.g. Invasive pests, LUC, etc ) to Other 1 2 Forest management system 3 Other 4 to 5 6

18 18 Forest ecosystem Other 1 Enhanced protection, changes in composition, provenances to 2 Forest management system 3 Other 4 to 5 6

19 19 Forest ecosystem Maintenance of landscapelevel resilience; heterogeneiry of composition and structure to Other 1 2 Forest management system 3 Other 4 to 5 6

20 20 Forest ecosystem s in growth; s in composition; Loss of extent to Other 1 2 Forest management system 3 Other 4 to 5 6

21 21 Planning for changes in timber supply regimes; diversify products Forest ecosystem Other 1 to 2 Forest management system 3 Other 4 to 5 6

22 22 Include CC impacts into planning: access to forest timber supply long-term SFM goals Forest ecosystem Other 1 to 2 Forest management system 3 Other 4 to 5 6

23 23 Enhance knowledge and its transfer; s laws and regulations; organisational structures Forest ecosystem Other to 1 2 Forest management system 3 Other 4 to 5 6

24 researchers say that we are causing climate to change Related presentations: Ste-Marie et al: FOREST CHANGE - Generating, Integrating and Delivering Knowledge to Support Forest Sector in Canada I d like a second opinion! Ste-Marie: Canada s approach on adaptation

25 Contributors: André Beaudoin Yan Boulanger Phil Burton Brian Eddy Sylvie Gauthier Dan McKenney David Paré Catherine Ste-Marie Graham Stinson Tim Williamson Anthony Taylor And many more. 25