Future fire regime in Canada, potential effects on forests, forest sector and forest communities

Transcription

1 1 Future fire regime in Canada, potential effects on forests, forest sector and forest communities by Sylvie Gauthier, Yan Boulanger et al. Adaptation 2016

2 2 Fire is highly variable temporally and spatially in Canada but recent increase Area burned

3 3 Forest Fires : Important economic and sociological impacts

4 4 Context Fire is a major natural disturbance in the Canadian forest. With climate change, what are the changes projected in fire risk and what could be the impact on Timber supply Habitat supply Fire suppression costs Public health and safety

5 5 Context Fire is a major natural disturbance in the Canadian forest. With climate change, what are the changes projected in fire risk and what could be the impact on Timber supply Habitat supply Fire suppression costs Public health and safety

6 Climate change in Canada Canada will be much warmer and a somewhat wetter: impact on fire hazard 6 Price et al. 2011

7 7 Fire season will be much longer RCP RCP RCP 8.5 CFS indicator website

8 Future area burned will strongly increase virtually everywhere RCP RCP RCP 8.5 Boulanger et al. 2014

9 9 Vulnerability of current harvesting level to fire increase In the managed section harvesting and fire occur together. Harvesting + Fire Productive capacity of forest management unit.

10 The study area 10 Annual area burned (% per year) Boulanger et al CJFR 44:

11 11 Two recent products helped us Key forest attributes: volume, age and composition (250 m): growth Harvesting rate Beaudoin et al CJFR 44: Fires Forest harvesting Flooding Guindon et al CJFR DOI: /cjfr

12 12 Theoretical harvesting rate Mean time to reach 100 m 3 per FMU

13 Theoretical harvesting rate 13

14 14 Theoretical harvesting rate Without fire With fire

15 Relative harvesting rate ratio of current ( )/theoretical 15

16 Relative harvesting rate ratio of current ( )/theoretical 16

17 17 Current and future annual area burned (AAB) Current RCP RCP RCP Boulanger et al CJFR 44:

18 Annual area burned effect on ability to maintain current harvesting level

19 19 Implications FMUs of the boreal forest are not too vulnerable to the current fire regime, but some regions would become vulnerable even in the near future. It is very unlikely that climate change related growth increase would be enough to compensate for fire loss.

20 20 Adaptation Plan for fire in all management phases Consider fire in AAC computation Plan for salvaging, and planting disturbed area Consider vegetation types in regenerating areas Etc.

21 Suppression costs New fire cost dataset ( Stocks et al.): projection of drought, area burned and costs (Hope, McKenney et al. submitted) 21 RCP 8.5 RCP th Percentile of Data

22 22 Implications Fire suppression costs appear very likely to rise Projected costs likely untenable, ask to have a look at current fire management paradigm

23 23 Mapping nationwide fire risk at a managementdecision scale is important Provide a better assessment of current and future fire risks around communities, infrastructures, etc. Help identify potential adaptation measures

24 Mapping national fire risk according to vegetation and regional area burned Stand age 24 Annual area burned Conifer content National forest cover maps 250m resolution Beaudoin et al. 2014

25 25 Vegetation has a strong impact on current fire risk Old coniferous forest more likely to burn than young Deciduous avoided more than coniferous Bernier et al. in prep

26 26 With climate change, annual area burned is predicted to increase with variable (spatio-temporal) impact on: On harvesting levels Fire suppression costs Public health and safety

27 27 Adaptation Fire will continue to occur in Canadian forests, so we may want to: Plan for it: increase in salvage, planting deciduous species, include in AAC computation, raise awareness about fire in communities Change some paradigms: protect communities and value at risk, Monitor: post-fire regeneration, fire season length, area burned

28 28

29 29 Thanks to many colleagues Pierre Bernier, Yan Boulanger, Xiao Jing Guo, Luc Guindon, André Beaudoin, Dominique Boucher, Dan McKenney, Francis Manka, Brian Stocks, Pierre Olivier Jean, Emily Hope, Brian Eddy, Martin Girardin

30 30 Questions Contact: Sylvie Gauthier Web sites: Indicators: Tools:

31 References 31 Beaudoin A, Bernier PY, Guindon L, Villemaire P, Guo XJ, Stinson G, Bergeron T, Magnussen S, Hall RJ (2014) Mapping attributes of Canada's forests at moderate resolution through knn and MODIS imagery. Can J For Res 44: Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., Burton, P.J A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Can. J. For. Res. 44: Gauthier, S.; Bernier, P., Boulanger, Y., Guo, X.J., Guindon, L., Beaudoin, A. Boucher, D Vulnerability of timber supply to projected changes in fire regime in Canada s managed forests. Can. J. For.Res /cjfr Gauthier, S.; Bernier, P.; Burton, P.J.; Edwards, J.; Isaac, K.; Isabel, N.; Jayen, K.; Le Goff, H.; Nelson, E.A Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the managed Canadian boreal forest. Environ. Rev. 22(3): doi: /er Gauthier, S.; Lorente, M.; Kremsater, L.; De Grandpré, L.; Burton, P.J.; Aubin, I.; Hogg, E.H.; Nadeau, S.; Nelson, E.A.; Taylor, A.R.; Ste-Marie, C Tracking climate change effects: Potential indicators for Canada's forests and forest sector / CFS report. Guindon L, Bernier PY, Beaudoin A, Pouliot D, Villemaire P, Hall RJ, Latifovic R, St-Amant R (2014) Annual mapping of large forest disturbances across Canada s forests using 250 m MODIS imagery from 2000 to Can J For Res 44: Price, D.T., McKenney, D.W., Joyce, L.A., Siltanen, R.M., Papadopol, P., Lawrence, K., High-resolution interpolation of forcing scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta. Information Report NOR-X-421.