Climate Change: A New Partnership for Restoration in the Rogue Basin

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1 Climate Change: A New Partnership for Restoration in the Rogue Basin Gwyn Myer Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative Dave Peterson USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station Ken Wearstler Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest

2 Extremes matter Frequency, extent, and severity of disturbances may be affected by climate change, altering the mean and variability of disturbance properties. A shift of 1 standard deviation changes a 1 in 40 yr event to a 1 in 6 yr event Standard deviation 1 in 40 yr high range A shift in distribution of disturbance properties has a larger relative effect at the extremes than near the mean. It s all about the tail!

3 Disturbance drives ecosystem change Climate change Warmer temperature More severe droughts New fire regimes Fire season Area burned Extreme events Habitat changes Landscape homogeneity Fire-adapted species Forest cover Species refugia Species responses Annuals and weedy species Deciduous and sprouting species Fire-sensitive species Specialists with restricted ranges

4 Disturbance drives ecosystem change Climate change Warmer temperature More severe droughts Mature trees buffer effects of warmer climate. New fire regimes Fire season Area burned Extreme events Habitat changes Landscape homogeneity Fire-adapted species Forest cover Species refugia Species responses Annuals and weedy species Deciduous and sprouting species Fire-sensitive species Specialists with restricted ranges

5 Disturbance drives ecosystem change Climate change Warmer temperature More severe droughts Fire resets succession, alters temporal scale of fire effects. New fire regimes Fire season Area burned Extreme events Mature trees buffer effects of warmer climate. Habitat changes Landscape homogeneity Fire-adapted species Forest cover Species refugia Species responses Annuals and weedy species Deciduous and sprouting species Fire-sensitive species Specialists with restricted ranges

6 Disturbance drives ecosystem change Climate change Warmer temperature More severe droughts Fire resets succession, alters temporal scale of fire effects. New fire regimes Fire season Area burned Extreme events The disturbance pathway is faster Mature trees buffer effects of warmer climate. Habitat changes Landscape homogeneity Fire-adapted species Forest cover Species refugia Species responses Annuals and weedy species Deciduous and sprouting species Fire-sensitive species Specialists with restricted ranges

7 Warming affects stress complexes Global warming Higher temperatures & more severe and extended droughts Stand-replacing fire regime Lodgepole pine Bark beetles and defoliators Extensive mature cohorts (70-80 yrs) Lodgepole pine mortality Large severe fires Salvage logging Fuel accumulation Changes in species composition (including exotics) McKenzie et al. (2009)

8 Adapting to climate change Information & tools

9 Adapting to climate change Information & tools Climate Change Resource Center U.S. Forest Service

10 1. Education Hold workshops to increase climate change awareness with resource staff. 2. Vulnerability Assessment Review climate projections and identify resource sensitivities. The adaptation process Start with a sciencemanagement partnership 3. Adaptation Planning Develop science-based adaptation options. 4. Implementation Incorporate adaptation strategies into existing management plans.

11 How do we manage forest ecosystems in a warmer climate? Tripod Fire 2006 Okanogan Wenatchee NF 175,000 acres

12 Adaptation option 1 Increase biological diversity Plant nursery stock from warmer locations than specified by genetic guidelines. Plant mixed genotypes (and species?), with emphasis on fire resistant species where appropriate.

13 Adaptation option 2 Increase landscape diversity Diversify spatial distribution of forest age and structure Implement thinning and fuel treatments across large landscapes. Orient the location of treatments in large blocks to modify fire severity and spread.

14 Adaptation option 3 Treat large disturbances as an opportunity Develop management strategies and on-theground actions for implementation following wildfire and insect outbreaks. Include long-term experimentation. Get the plans approved.

15 Adaptation option 4 Incorporate risk assessment Quantify or at least estimate the risk of climate change effects on natural resources Current

16 Adaptation option 4 Incorporate risk assessment Quantify or at least estimate the risk of climate change effects on natural resources. Use risk assessment to guide adaptation responses.

17 Adaptation from concept to applications Adaptation activities have increased greatly over the past 5 years, often led by federal agencies. Vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans are moving forward. Most adaptation is strategic, focused on resistance and resilience to stressors. Not much implementation in formal planning and policy.

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19 Adapting to climate change in the North Cascades region

20 Adapting to climate change in the North Cascades region

21 Adapting to climate change in the Blue Mountains

22 Adapting to climate change in the Blue Mountains

23 Restoration

24 Managing for resilience

25 Science-based fine tuning We have successfully addressed more difficult challenges in the past Climate smart = managing for resilience to disturbance Choose your battles wisely Work with your neighbors share your experiences

26 The Rogue Basin Action Plan for Resilient Watersheds and Forests in a Changing Climate

27 Goal Provide quantifiable ecological restoration and economic support for practices by incorporating an Ecosystem Services model to identify and focus on priority areas

28 Tools and partnerships to move forward SOFRC Integrated Restoration Assessment

29 EcoNorthwest, 2009 If we do nothing

30 If we do something

31 If we do something

32 If we do something

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